A jumpy July

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: Federal fee payments via Aani and Jaywan on the way + ridership numbers on Dubai public transport take a downturn

Good morning, friends. Despite July being a mixed bag for markets, Dubai regulators aren’t waiting around for sentiment to turn.

Abu Dhabi bucked the trend of an otherwise rough month for Gulf equities and debt markets, emerging as the only major GCC market to post a meaningful monthly gain, as investors become more selective.

Over in Dubai, regulators are putting the DIFC in more direct competition with the Cayman Islands and the British Virgin Islands for the SPV and family-wealth structuring business. More earnings are rolling in, with Alpha Dhabi and Dubai Residential REIT turning in their results, and settlement of federal service fees through Aani and Jaywan is on the way.

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PSAs

You’ll soon be able to pay federal service fees and fines using Aani and Jaywan, after the Finance Ministry adopted the Central Bank of the UAE’s (CBUAE) instant payment platform and domestic card scheme as official collection channels, according to a ministry statement.

REMEMBER- The move comes as financial institutions have started integrating the CBUAE’s national payment architecture into their banking infrastructure. Last month, the CBUAE said that every licensed bank and financial institution in the country will start using Jaywan, which aims to keep payment data onshore and reduce reliance on international card networks. Some banks, including Dubai Islamic Bank, have started integrating Jaywan into their systems, and Majid Al Futtaim has recently started accepting payments made via the card across its physical network.

WEATHER- We’ll again see a high of 46°C today in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, with a low of 36°C, according to our favorite weather app.

Data point

348.1 mn — that was the number of people who used Dubai’s public transport in 1H, as average daily ridership reached nearly 1.9 mn, Dubai Media Office reports, citing Dubai’s Roads and Transport Authority. The figures mark an 11.9% dip, largely reversing last year’s 9% growth for 1H. The metro proved most popular, carrying 136.5 mn passengers, followed by buses with 85.1 mn and tram services with 3.8 mn. 88.9 mn passengers opted for taxi services, and 25.7 mn chose shared mobility options.

IN CONTEXT- Dubai has recently been focused heavily in transport infrastructure — including for a AED 34 bn to metro expansion, developing the Dubai Loop, and approving a five-year plan to expand its mobility network —- just as the regional war weighs on footfall, especially from tourism, with the results starting to show through on the income statement of firms like Dubai Taxi Company.

The big story abroad

Conflicting accounts over the US-Iran war are taking the lead today, as US President Donald Trump claims that talks with Tehran are underway and that the Strait of Hormuz would imminently reopen. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei denied ongoing talks with Washington, stating instead that Tehran is discussing shipping administration in the contested waterway with Oman.

As the regional conflict continues to strain oil supply, Trump has chastised ExxonMobil and Chevron for reaping gigantic windfalls over rising oil prices. The energy giants have earned as much as USD 318 mn per day in 2Q, a more than threefold y-o-y jump. Trump urged the companies to “give some of that back to the public” and trim prices at the pump.

Apple issued a new challenge to the UK government’s attempt to gain backdoor access to encrypted user data, a push the government defends as essential for protecting the public from terrorism and serious crime. The government’s prior demand called for access to data from UK and US customers, which triggered a diplomatic brawl between London and Washington last year.

JPMorgan Chase will plug USD 750 bn into US housing through 2035 as part of its American Dream Initiative, which aims to construct or preserve 1 mn affordable housing units and help 500k customers acquire homes.

Visa is acquiring Israeli fraud detection startup BioCatch for USD 2.4 bn, continuing the payment player’s expansion into cybersecurity amid a flood of AI-powered scams. Under the agreement, Visa will acquire the startup's behavioral biometrics platform, which analyzes user interaction data to detect scammers and bots.

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Abu Dhabi equities gained ground as Dubai lagged behind in July; debt markets are likely to remain slow, analysts say

July was another rough month for both Gulf equities and primary debt markets, but it wasn’t all bad. Abu Dhabi is emerging as a bright spot, being the only major GCC equity market to post a meaningful monthly gain last month, closing up 1.1%. Meanwhile, issuers in the UAE still managed to raise some capital before rising US Treasury yields and Fed rate-hike chatter shut the window for almost everyone else.

Zoom out to the rest of the Gulf: Qatar’s QE20 and Bahrain’s bourse are both down YTD, and only Oman’s MSX 30 and Saudi’s TASI are ahead of where Dubai sits for the year.

Dubai’s DFM General Index fell 2.7%, according to a Kamco Invest report (pdf), with five out of the eight sectors registering declines during the month. Talabat led with a share price decline of 14.6%, following news of Uber’s takeover of Delivery Hero, its German parent.

Abu Dhabi’s advance was carried by large-cap financials (+2.2% on the month) and telecoms (+5.7%), while technology and real estate fared slightly poorer. Dubai’s pullback, by contrast, was concentrated in real estate and consumer discretionary names that had rallied hardest earlier in the year. Valecha reads the index move as gain-realization and a valuation reset — Dubai now trades at 9.8x forward earnings, 14.6% below its February peak — rather than a deterioration in fundamentals.

Despite the mixed performance, sentiment is “constructive,” analysts say. “[Sentiment] was supported by confidence in the domestic economy and anticipation of the upcoming earnings season,” Century Financial’s Chief Investment Officer Vijay Valecha wrote in an emailed note.

But investors are becoming more selective, Valecha says. “[Investors are] favoring fundamentally strong companies while [realizing gains] in stocks that had rallied sharply in recent weeks,” he adds.

Looking ahead: Mashreq Capital’s 3Q 2026 outlook (pdf) keeps the UAE at a neutral equity weighting overall but also splits the market in two. It favors Abu Dhabi financials, pointing to the Adnoc value chain and stronger bank balance sheets, while flagging caution on Dubai-facing exposure tied to a real estate cycle it expects to cool as capital inflows and population growth normalize.

The valuation gap makes the case too: The UAE is the cheapest market in MENA on equity risk premium (6.55%, against a 2.77% regional average) despite trailing earnings-per-share growth of 7.3% — a mismatch Mashreq puts down to earnings-slowdown concerns rather than weak fundamentals.

As for debt…

GCC-wide primary issuance fell to USD 10.15 bn in July from USD 12.1 bn in June — and would have dropped under USD 5 bn without Kuwait’s sovereign. The latter returned mid-month with a triple-tranche issuance that drew USD 18 bn of demand and alone accounted for 60% of the month’s regional volume, according to data shared by Bank Nizwa’s Muhammad Ahsan.

Inside that freeze, two UAE banks still priced: Commercial Bank of Dubai’s USD 600 mn AT1 perpetual at 6.625%, and Ajman Bank’s debut USD 300 mn AT1 perpetual sukuk at 6.5% — both getting out in the first half of the month.

Ahsan doesn’t expect a quick rebound. He sees August staying quiet as the region hits peak summer and issuers wait out the lull. Meanwhile, Mashreq has kept its USD 135 bn estimate for 2026 MENA hard-currency issuance intact — with USD 85 bn already priced in 1H 2026 — but warns that any re-escalation in regional tensions would widen new-issue premia and raise execution risk on whatever's left of the pipeline.

MENA spreads have already tightened to 122 bps from a war-time peak of 175 — tighter even than the 135 bps they sat at before the conflict, which Mashreq says caps how much further they can compress in the second half.

The DIFC just removed the eligibility rules that kept its Cayman-style holding structure gated

The Dubai International Financial Center (DIFC) just scrapped (pdf) the two eligibility tests that kept its cheapest holding-company structure off-limits to most of the world — meaning anyone, anywhere, can now set one — a prescribed company — up, with no DIFC nexus and no qualifying purpose required. The move implements proposals floated in a consultation paper earlier in May. The move puts Dubai's financial freezone in more direct competition with the Cayman Islands and the British Virgin Islands for the SPV and family-wealth structuring business that currently flows offshore.

Uh, Enterprise, what’s a prescribed company? The Prescribed Company (PC) structure is specific to the DIFC and is essentially the classic offshore SPV used to hold assets rather than operate businesses.

What changed: Applicants no longer need to demonstrate a qualifying purpose (like structured financing) or a nexus to the DIFC (like being a GCC citizen, or being controlled by a DIFC-registered entity) to set one up.

Still, requirements remain: The PC will need to be managed by a licensed Corporate Services Provider (CSP) (who handles official filings and compliance records) unless exempt. Existing companies that don't meet the new rules have six months to appoint a CSP or lose their status. PCs also have to stay pure holding vehicles — no operating businesses — and need DFSA approval to set up a fund.

Our take: The regime positions the DIFC as a direct, onshore alternative for traditional offshore jurisdictions like the Cayman Islands or the British Virgin Islands for structuring regional investments, family wealth, and corporate assets. The move would streamline wealth and investment management for high-net-worth individuals and family offices at a time when the Iran war has threatened the UAE’s “safe haven” image, with Dubai-listed shares recording USD 641.5 mn in foreign investor outflows in 2Q.

The timing lines up with a moment when Dubai could use the reassurance. Foreign investors pulled USD 641.5 mn out of Dubai-listed shares in 2Q — the GCC's largest outflow — as the Iran war chipped at the UAE's “safe haven” pitch. An onshore structure that undercuts Cayman and BVI on cost and process, right as regional risk premia are back in focus, is a lure for HNWIs and family offices considering where to park their capital.

Dubai Residential REIT + Alpha Dhabi post earnings

Dubai Residential REIT’s top line jumps as rental demand remains tight

Dubai Residential REIT’s revenues rose 8.1% y-o-y to AED 1 bn in 1H 2026 as the emirate’s tight rental market continued to work in its favor, according to its latest financial statement (pdf). Net income for the period came in at AED 1.1 bn, down from AED 1.92 bn a year earlier.

The average portfolio occupancy across the REIT’s 35.9k homes reached 98.6% during the first half of the year, while the average revenue per leased sq ft climbed 7.5% y-o-y to AED 59.7, according to a separate statement (pdf).

Growth pipeline continues to scale: Gross asset value grew 6.9% y-o-y to AED 25.2 bn over the six-month period, with the REIT expanding its operational footprint by adding 276 units across its Jebel Ali Village and Garden View Villas communities. Tenant retention came in at 94.1%, pointing to residents choosing to stay put despite rising lease rates.

Dividends: The board approved an 1H 2026 interim dividend payout of AED 573.2 mn, or 4.4 fils per share, translating to an annualized dividend yield of 8% on its IPO price and 7.1% on its 30 June closing price. The trust’s shares have started to recover in 2Q 2026 after slipping at the outset of the war.

Alpha Dhabi’s 1H earnings jump on AI gains

Alpha Dhabi Holding’s revenue growth slowed to 1.9% y-o-y in 2Q 2026, coming in at AED 18.8 bn — well below the half-year pace — but net income accelerated 32.1% to AED 6 bn, according to the company’s financials (pdf). For 1H 2026, strategic AI investments and portfolio diversification lifted Alpha Dhabi’s net income 48% y-o-y to AED 9.8 bn, while its revenue climbed 5% to AED 37.6 bn, according to a separate earnings release (pdf). The divergence points to margin and non-operating gains doing more of the work in 2Q than top-line growth.

Total assets expanded 7.5% to AED 230 bn during the period, up from AED 214 bn at the end of 2025, while shareholders’ equity grew to AED 110 bn. Fair-value gains from investments reached AED 3.7 bn, driven by the conglomerate’s exposure to AI and frontier tech firms, including SpaceX, Cerebras, and Anthropic through Alpha Wave Ventures II.

Longevium raises USD 7 mn for lab, Spinneys ups stake in its KSA subsidiary, another step forward for autonomous logistics in Dubai

Dubai wagers on AI to grow its longevity ecosystem

Dubai-based healthcare company Longevium has closed its first funding round, raising USD 7 mn to build a Longevity AI Research Lab at Dubai Science Park, according to a press release. The release doesn't name the investors. The lab, scheduled to open in 4Q 2026, will function as a dedicated R&D hub rather than a clinic — developing AI-powered tools for biological age assessment, digital twins, early disease detection, and regenerative medicine.

Background: Longevium already runs three Dubai clinics — in Jumeirah 3, Jumeirah Lake Towers, and Jumeirah Village Circle — staffed by close to 100 physicians and specialists who've treated more than 30k patients.

Spinneys raises Saudi unit stake to 70%

Dubai-listed retailer Spinneys will increase its stake in its Saudi subsidiary, Spinneys KSA, to 70% after acquiring an additional 20% shareholding from Saudi-based Abdul Mohsen Abdul Aziz Al Hokair Holding for USD 4.8 mn (SAR 18 mn), as per a press release. The transaction, subject to regulatory approvals, ramps up the grocer’s commitment to one of its fastest-growing markets.

Why it matters: Formed in 2022, Spinneys KSA is a key pillar of the company's regional expansion plans. The retailer opened two stores in Saudi Arabia over the past year, and expanded its footprint to Kuwait last summer.

Dubai pushes autonomous logistics closer to reality

Dubai is putting a joint venture behind its autonomous-logistics ambitions. SHIFFT — a new tie-up between the Dubai Future Foundation and UK self-driving firm Oxa — is targeting a first commercial rollout of driverless vehicles across the emirate's ports and airports before the end of 2027, according to a press release.

Autonomous logistics is gaining traction in the UAE: The Abu Dhabi Investment Office inked a raft of commercial deployment agreements for autonomous mobility tech in November 2025, including for logistics plays, while UAE-based autonomous delivery startup CargoX raised USD 250 mn this past June.

S&P warns US manufacturing expansion masks deepening supply, confidence slump

US manufacturing held its ground in July, but S&P Global says that’s the wrong way to read it. The latest S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (pdf) came in at 53.9, unchanged from June, and still comfortably in expansion territory, yet the index provider calls it a picture that “masks softer production and sales growth.” Business confidence in the outlook fell to its lowest level since October 2025, marking a nine-month low.

The internals explain the gap between the headline and the mood. Production rose at its weakest pace since March, new order growth eased for a third straight month, and firms increasingly drew down existing stock rather than placing fresh orders. Finished-goods inventories saw their steepest drawdown since September 2023. Chris Williamson, S&P’s chief business economist, called it plainly: “beneath the survey we see some warning signs about the future growth trajectory.”

The war is the thread running through nearly every weak spot in the data. S&P says vendor delivery times deteriorated at the second-sharpest rate in four years “as the Middle East conflict continued to cause delivery delays and contribute to material shortages.” Its earlier flash report, published July 24, was more specific still, tying the disruption directly to “shipping disruption around the Strait of Hormuz.” Input costs eased only slightly, remaining above the survey’s historical average, driven by what the release attributes to high energy prices and tariffs together.

Employment tells the same cautionary tale. Factory staffing rose “only marginally” in July, with anecdotal evidence in the survey suggesting most open positions had simply been filled rather than new roles created, even as backlogs of work crept higher, marking a sign of capacity strain without the hiring to match it.

Why it matters to our part of the world

The US is the world’s largest oil consumer, and weaker US manufacturing means weaker US demand for the fuel that runs it. OPEC cut its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 1 mn barrels a day from 1.2 mn in its July report, even as the group approved a fifth consecutive monthly output increase and actual production remains below pre-war levels, pointing to a market absorbing more supply just as demand growth cools.

A softening US demand signal lands on Gulf producers at the worst possible moment. They’re already absorbing record war-risk ins. costs, and now the market they’re counting on to buy their oil back is showing the same confidence problem their own war is causing everyone else.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets are trading lower this morning, failing to echo the rally seen on Wall Street just hours earlier. South Korea’s Kospi is down 1.4%, with Japan’s Nikkei trailing behind. The Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are also in the red. The drop comes despite US stocks ending Monday higher after US President Donald Trump signaled the resumption of talks to end the regional war.

ADX	9,941	+0.3% (YTD: -0.5%)
DFM	5,878	+1.4% (YTD: -2.8%)
Nasdaq Dubai UAE20	4,766	+1.1% (YTD: -2.5%)
USD : AED CBUAE	Buy 3.67	Sell 3.67
EIBOR	3.5% o/n	4.2% 1 yr
TASI	10,824	+1.1% (YTD: +3.2%)
EGX30	54,094	-0.4% (YTD: +29.3%)
S&P 500	7,601	+1.5% (YTD: +11.0%)
FTSE 100	10,858	-0.1% (YTD: +9.3%)
Euro Stoxx 50	6,427	+1.1% (YTD: +10.9%)
Brent crude	USD 83.77	-4.7%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 2.77	-0.4%
Gold	USD 4,108	+0.4%
BTC	USD 63,650	+0.1% (YTD: -27.4%)
Chimera JP Morgan UAE Bond UCITS ETF	AED 3.62	+2.7% (YTD: -3.5%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	149.83	0.0% (YTD: -1.4%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	15.86	-0.8% (YTD: +6.1%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The ADX rose 0.3% yesterday on turnover of AED 1.1 bn. The index is down 0.5% YTD.

In the green: Alpha Dhabi Holding (+9.2%), NMDC Group (+4.9%), and Emsteel Building Materials (+3.6%).

In the red: Al Khaleej Investment (-5.0%), E7 Group Warrants (-4.6%), and Burjeel Holdings (-3.2%).

Over on the DFM, the index rose 1.4% on turnover of AED 483.3 mn. Meanwhile, Nasdaq Dubai was up 1.1%.

CALENDAR

SEPTEMBER

1-3 September (Tuesday-Thursday): Middle East Energy, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

7-9 September (Monday-Wednesday): AIM Congress, Dubai World Trade Center.

7-9 September (Monday-Wednesday): International Property Show, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

12-13 September (Saturday-Sunday): Emirates International Congress on AI & Visionary Leadership in Transforming Healthcare, Adnec Center Abu Dhabi.

14-17 September (Monday-Thursday): Arabian Travel Market, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

15-16 September (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

17-19 September (Thursday-Saturday): International Real Estate & Investment Show (IREIS), Adnec, Abu Dhabi.

29-30 September (Tuesday-Wednesday): AFCM Annual Conference, Abu Dhabi.

OCTOBER

4-10 October (Sunday-Saturday): World Space Week, Abu Dhabi.

5-7 October (Monday-Wednesday): AI Everything Global, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

12-14 October (Monday-Wednesday): Airport Show, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

14-15 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Sharjah Investment Forum, Jawaher Reception and Convention Center, Sharjah.

13-15 October (Tuesday-Thursday): Annual Meeting of Global Future Leaders, Dubai.

20-22 October (Tuesday-Thursday): Future Health Summit, Adnec Center Abu Dhabi.

27-28 October (Tuesday-Wednesday): Arab Competition Forum, Dubai.

27-28 October (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

30 October (Friday): Large businesses achieving annual revenues equal to or above AED 50 mn must appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation.

Signposted to happen sometime in October 2026:

Abu Dhabi Space Week, Abu Dhabi.

NOVEMBER

2-6 November (Monday-Friday): Dubai Future Finance Week, Dubai.

4 November (Wednesday): Digital Transformation Summit, Sofitel, Abu Dhabi.

9-10 November (Monday-Tuesday): Annual government meetings, Abu Dhabi.

9-12 November (Monday-Thursday): EMEA Council on Hotel, Restaurant and Institutional Education Conference, Dubai College of Tourism, Dubai.

10-12 November (Tuesday-Thursday): Dubai International Electric Vehicle Exhibition & Conference, Dubai World Trade Center.

16-18 November (Monday-Wednesday): World Police Summit, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

18-19 November (Wednesday-Thursday): Touchdown Middle East 2026, Conrad Abu Dhabi Etihad Towers, Abu Dhabi.

25-26 November (Saturday-Sunday): Doers Summit, Dubai Silicon Oasis, Dubai.

DECEMBER

2-4 December (Wednesday-Friday): UN Water Conference, UAE.

4-6 December (Friday-Sunday): Formula 1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, Abu Dhabi.

8-9 December (Tuesday-Wednesday): Capital Market Summit, Madinat Jumeirah, Dubai.

8-9 December (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

7-10 December (Monday-Thursday): Abu Dhabi Finance Week, Al Maryah Island, Abu Dhabi.

8-10 December (Tuesday-Thursday): Abu Dhabi Water & Power Week, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

1 January: Deadline for large businesses to implement e-invoicing;
1Q 2027: Completion of the first phase of Hassyan seawater desalination project;
1-3 February (Monday-Wednesday): World Governments Summit;
31 March: Small businesses with annual revenues of less than AED 50 mn are obliged to contract with an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation;
31 March: Government entities are required to appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation;
21-22 April (Wednesday-Thursday): Token2049, Dubai;
1 July: Deadline for small businesses to implement e-invoicing;
1 October: Deadline for governments to implement e-invoicing;
Abu Dhabi’s solar and battery energy facility, combining 5.2 GW of solar capacity and 19 GWh of battery storage, is set for commissioning.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2028:

Artificial Intelligence Summit.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2029:

Sibos 2029 organized by the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), Dubai;
Annual Meetings of the World Bank Group and the International Monetary Fund, Abu Dhabi;
The commissioning of the seventh phase of Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park.

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A jumpy July

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Today at a glance

THIS MORNING: Federal fee payments via Aani and Jaywan on the way + ridership numbers on Dubai public transport take a downturn

Related

This publication is proudly sponsored by

Abu Dhabi equities gained ground as Dubai lagged behind in July; debt markets are likely to remain slow, analysts say

Related

The DIFC just removed the eligibility rules that kept its Cayman-style holding structure gated

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Related

Dubai Residential REIT + Alpha Dhabi post earnings

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Related

Longevium raises USD 7 mn for lab, Spinneys ups stake in its KSA subsidiary, another step forward for autonomous logistics in Dubai

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S&P warns US manufacturing expansion masks deepening supply, confidence slump

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A jumpy July

An independent publication supported by

Today at a glance

THIS MORNING: Federal fee payments via Aani and Jaywan on the way + ridership numbers on Dubai public transport take a downturn

Get Enterprise daily

Related

This publication is proudly sponsored by

Abu Dhabi equities gained ground as Dubai lagged behind in July; debt markets are likely to remain slow, analysts say

Related

The DIFC just removed the eligibility rules that kept its Cayman-style holding structure gated

Related

Related

Dubai Residential REIT + Alpha Dhabi post earnings

Related

Related

Longevium raises USD 7 mn for lab, Spinneys ups stake in its KSA subsidiary, another step forward for autonomous logistics in Dubai

Related

S&P warns US manufacturing expansion masks deepening supply, confidence slump

Related

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