A quieter-than-usual 1Q for regional capital markets

Regional equity capital markets activity all but dried up in 1Q, while M&A activity also slumped as regional tensions hit a normally very active market.

IPOs took a big hit: Total equity capital markets proceeds dropped 91% y-o-y during the quarter to USD 427.9 mn on just five transactions (-69% y-o-y), according to an LSEG report seen by EnterpriseAM. The regional war sent markets into a tailspin, forcing IPO hopefuls to retreat, the report noted.

Only four IPOs made it to market YTD, down from 12 in the same period last year. These listings — one each in Saudi Arabia (Saleh Abdulaziz Al Rashed & Sons), Bahrain (Silah Gulf), Kuwait (Trolley), and Egypt (Gourmet) — raised a combined USD 296.6 mn, marking the region’s weakest first quarter since 2018. Follow-on offerings slipped to a three-year low of USD 131.3 mn, with just one offering by Kyvistar Group on Nasdaq Dubai.

“The situation in the region is very volatile for issuers to tap the market as sentiments change overnight,” Junaid Ansari, director of investment strategy and research at Kamco Invest, tells us. He adds that despite the ceasefire, most names are still waiting for a more durable resolution before testing the waters again.

As we’ve reported, the 1H window is all but closed now, with IPO hopefuls in the UAE delaying their listings, with any near-term IPO plans likely to be pushed into 2H.

Any recovery is likely to be back-loaded. Ansari expects 2H to see a pickup in IPO activity but only if a lasting ceasefire holds, with full-year volumes and proceeds still set to come in below last year’s levels. “Issuers are prioritizing demand visibility and execution certainty over valuation maximization, making timing the single most critical factor in bringing [IPOs] to market,” Tahir Abbas, head of research at Ubhar Capital, previously told EnterpriseAM.

Early positive signs?

There are early signs of hope returning: “We have seen a broad-based rally across sectors in the GCC with all sectors trading in the green,” Ansari said, noting that a sustained improvement in the backdrop could start to bring cyclicals and growth names back into the mix.

“Demand for good quality names at reasonable valuation is always strong in the region,” Ansari said, though allocation dynamics between institutional and retail investors will be key in determining how much supply the market can absorb. “It’s the order size that persuades a prospective issuer more to go for an IPO as compared to the post-listing performance,” Ansari said, adding that the latter is still important.

As for what signals a proper reopening? Ansari said he looks at a combination of improving sentiment and hard data points — including benchmark performance, foreign inflows, and how recent listings trade post-IPO — to tell if the window is opening again.

On the M&A and debt front

M&A transaction value also fell 74% y-o-y to USD 18.8 bn, while the number of transactions dropped 9% y-o-y. Only USD 4.6 bn worth of transactions involved a MENA target, the lowest for the region in a decade, according to LSEG. On the bright side, the UAE was the most targeted nation. Outbound M&A also fell 55% y-o-y, hitting a two-year low of USD 11.5 bn.

MENA bond issuance fell 12% y-o-y to USD 48.1 bn, while the number of issuances fell 11%. Saudi Arabia was the most active, accounting for 58% of bond proceeds, while the UAE came in second place with a 27% share.