UAE equity markets break winning streaks in October

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: CMA eyes a safety net for investors + Emaar Properties eyes 100% of Emaar Development

Good morning, everyone. October was a month to forget for equity markets — the ADX and DFM bore the brunt of the month’s GCC sell-off, with the ADX having its worst month since March. We look back at their performance and speak with analysts to make sense of the decline.

That’s not all on the capital markets front today: the CMA has a plan to set up an investor protection fund after a rough year for investor confidence. It’s also drafting safeguards for exceptional market conditions and rules letting private joint-stock companies and freezone businesses raise capital through private placements.

Speaking of safeguards: Binance evidently didn’t have enough, its co-CEO said, after the exchange was rocked by a USD 6.3 bn hack last week that’s since seen customers pull USD 4.72 bn from the platform.

PLUS- Adipec is still well underway. XRG is adding Australian LNG to its portfolio as regional disruption continues to push firms to find assets elsewhere to keep supply moving, while Adnoc Gas signed a five-year supply agreement with TotalEnergies.

ALSO- Could G42 become a US company? That’s the question the AI + Innovation desk explores this week. We have the rundown in the news well below.

CMA eyes a safety net for investors

The Capital Market Authority (CMA) is planning to set up an investor protection fund, CMA CEO Waleed Saeed Al Awadhi told Khaleej Times, without clarifying the size of the fund, the timeline for its launch, or who it will be drawing its funds from. The regulator is also drawing up safeguards for exceptional market conditions and introducing improvements to its complaints, appeals, and settlement procedures.

SOUND SMART- An investor protection fund compensates clients of a licensed broker or asset manager that collapses and can’t return their funds or securities.

The timing is hard to miss: The CMA said last month it is reviewing AIX Financial Consultations, the CMA-regulated arm of AIX Investment Group, which has been accused of failing to pay coupons to thousands of investors and is now asking them to wait until 2031 for their principal. Al Awadhi didn’t mention AIX. It’s also unclear whether a fund like this would cover products like AIX’s, which were managed through a Cayman entity.

It also comes after a rough year for investor confidence: Foreign investors sold a net USD 641.5 mn of Dubai-listed shares in 2Q, on top of USD 654 mn in 1Q, as the Iran war weighed on the market.

The CMA is also drafting new regulations that would let private joint-stock companies and freezone businesses raise capital through private placements to give family businesses and SMEs a route to capital before they’re ready to list, with draft regulations set to be completed by year-end, Al Awadhi said.

Also in the pipeline: The CMA is considering a framework for retail and fractional sukuk, which would let individuals buy into fixed income with smaller amounts. It’s also planning to review the rules governing securities offerings and issuers, including foreign issuers, next year.

Speaking of regulatory pressure…

UAE regulators have the largest cryptocurrency hack in history on their hands. Abu Dhabi’s Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA) is essentially the home regulator for Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange, which got hit with a USD 6.3 bn hack last week. MGX also has a USD 2 bn stake in the exchange.

It’s not clear what actions the regulator might take. The FSRA is “aware of the matter,” it said in a statement, and is “engaging closely with Binance.” Efforts to claw back the hacked funds will likely fall to US law enforcement, including the FBI, which attributed the hack to North Korea. Binance employs about 1k people in the UAE, accounting for about 20% of its workforce, according to Semafor.

The stakes: The Binance hack is more than four times larger than the previous record holder for the largest-ever crypto hack, a 2025 North Korea-linked theft targeting the Bybit exchange — and a stark indication of how AI-powered cybertheft is leading to skyrocketing costs for victims. Binance co-CEO Yi He, who was at home in Abu Dhabi when the attack hit, admitted in a video posted on X that the exchange “should have invested more in security earlier.” That’s from Bloomberg’s look inside the first hours of the heist. Co-CEO Richard Teng says Binance will publish a detailed report on what happened.

Customers have pulled a net USD 4.72 bn from Binance since the hack, Gulf News reports. That’s about 3% of the assets on the platform — but the exchange has also taken in USD 2.7 bn in fresh deposits since reopening withdrawals on Sunday. Binance says it has replaced 95% of the affected crypto from its emergency protection fund and other reserves and is sourcing the remaining, less liquid tokens through over-the-counter providers. Teng said at Hong Kong Fintech Week on Tuesday that flows have largely normalized.

Brookfield, Lunate eye luxury Gulf housing

Brookfield, Lunate launch luxury development platform: Abu Dhabi-based asset manager Lunate and Brookfield Asset Management launched Alya, a Dubai-based residential development platform targeting premium housing projects across the Gulf, according to a press release. Alya will be based in the DIFC and regulated by the DFSA.

REFRESHER- Last year, Brookfield and Lunate announced plans for a USD 1 bn JV focusing on developing high-quality residential assets. It was targeting buy-to-sell properties across the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and other Middle Eastern markets. While Alya hasn’t given any specific investment targets in this latest announcement, Lunate was previously reported to be contributing “a significant cornerstone investment to the JV.”

Already building together: In 2024, Lunate acquired a 24.5% stake in ICD Brookfield Place, Dubai’s prominent office tower. Brookfield is also pursuing residential expansion, including via Merex Investment’s planned redevelopment of La Mer North into an ultra-luxury community featuring 225 homes. Alya now equips both heavyweights with a dedicated vehicle to grab high-end Gulf residential market share, which fared relatively well compared to its peers in recent months.

Emaar Properties eyes 100% of Emaar Development

Emaar Properties is weighing a buyout of its listed construction arm Emaar Development in a transaction that could cost as much as USD 3.2 bn, Bloomberg reports, citing people familiar with the matter. Emaar Properties already owns just over 79% of the unit, which is worth more than USD 15 bn at current share prices.

Market reax: Emaar Development shares rose as much as 11.5% on Tuesday before ending the day up 10.7%, their biggest jump since early April. The stock is still down roughly a third since the war began.

What’s next: An announcement could come within days. Emaar’s board meets this week to review proposals to create shareholder value, which the developer said just over a month ago it was evaluating. Nothing is final, and Emaar declined to comment.

Why it matters: Owning all of Emaar Development — Emaar’s main cashflow generator — would give Emaar more freedom to steer the funds it generates toward recurring-income assets, international expansion, and dividends, CI Capital analysts wrote, though the cost of funding the transaction and its timing will weigh on the decision. And Emaar has plenty to fund: last year, it pledged to invest AED 65 bn in its operations and assets over five years. Since then, it has unveiled plans for a AED 200 bn mixed-use project in Dubai on top of projects in Egypt.

A vote away from done

ADX- and EGX-listed Orascom Construction’s board is due to approve the capital increase behind its merger with OCI tomorrow, according to an EGX disclosure (pdf). The hike would lift its issued capital to USD 207.4 mn from USD 110.2 mn through 97.2 mn new shares allotted to the Dutch-listed company. Those shares are due to list on the EGX and ADX on 24 November, per Orascom’s timetable.

OCI will trade for the final time on Euronext Amsterdam on 26 November and delists the next day, with its shareholders receiving their Orascom stock on or around 8 December. Orascom expects the whole transaction to wrap up next month. On OCI’s side, NNS’s voluntary offer closes on 17 November, and the distribution ex-date is 27 November, per OCI’s updated timetable.

REFRESHER- Orascom shareholders approved the swap in January, days after a Dutch court barred OCI from voting on its own side over Nassef Sawiris’ role on both. Sawiris moved to break the deadlock with a take-private bid in June; OCI’s shareholders signed off on 30 October.

PSA

WEATHER- Abu Dhabi will see highs of 35°C today and it’ll be cooler in Dubai with top temperatures of 34°C, both emirates will see lows of 26°C, with our favorite weather app even warning of a thunderstorm in Dubai.

Happening next week

The UAE is hosting peace talks between Russia, Ukraine, and the US in Abu Dhabi on 10-11 November, Reuters reports, citing confirmation from the Kremlin. US envoy Steve Witkoff said in an X post that post-war security agreements, humanitarian efforts, and de-escalation would be discussed. The UAE has already played host to several rounds of talks since the conflict began, with the most recent round taking place in February, and has also facilitated several prisoner exchanges between the two sides.

The big story abroad

Americans are voting to decide who controls Congress in the 2026 midterms. To take both chambers from Republicans, Democrats need to flip four Senate seats and three House seats. Polls have closed in more than half the country, including most states with competitive Senate races. The newswire expects results to come in between 6pm and 1am Eastern Standard Time.

Nvidia tightens the screws on Chinese cloud customers: Nvidia has told its data center partners they must sell at least 51% of their cloud services to non-Chinese companies, the Financial Times reports, citing five unnamed sources. The move further limits China’s access to advanced US chips as the AI race between the two countries heats up. There were no such limits before. Nvidia’s sales and regional teams passed on the rules verbally instead of putting them in writing, and the rules apply to clients worldwide, not just in Asia, though only to new contracts.

Hackers hit European supermarket fridges again: Supermarkets in eight European countries are rushing to upgrade their systems after hackers cranked up fridge and freezer temperatures on Monday, forcing stores to throw out large amounts of food. The attack mirrored one that hit dozens of French supermarkets three weeks ago. The EU’s cybersecurity agency called for closer cooperation and faster information-sharing across the bloc.

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Abu Dhabi leads GCC losses as UAE stocks snap winning streaks in October

The UAE’s equity markets bore the brunt of October’s GCC selloff, and investors are firmly in risk-off mode. Abu Dhabi snapped a four-month winning streak with the region’s steepest decline, and Dubai fell for the first time since July, according to a Kamco Invest report. Trading dried up on both exchanges as geopolitical tensions weighed on sentiment, while value traded on the ADX hit its lowest level in at least 12 months.

Abu Dhabi had its worst month since March: The ADX General Index fell 6% in October, reversing four consecutive months of gains and pushing YTD losses to 5.3%. Heavyweight financials lost 6.6% and real estate 5.2%, with every listed property company ending lower. Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank dropped 15% after net income inched up 2% y-o-y to AED 1.9 bn in 3Q, while Eshraq Investments fell 15.8%. Value traded fell 15.3% m-o-m to AED 20.2 bn, while volumes dropped 31.4%.

Behind the drop: Profit-taking after an extended rally and an escalation of attacks on shipping in Hormuz were behind the decline, Kamco Invest's Director of Investment Strategy and Research Junaid Ansari told EnterpriseAM. Results season wasn’t the trigger, though “weak reactions” to earnings added to the selling: the index had already shed 2.6% by mid-month, before the banks began reporting. A more solid September also meant the index had further to fall, he adds. IHC lost some AED 44 bn in value, and was down 5.5%.

A change in sentiment: Abu Dhabi’s slide points to “short-term investor caution over rich valuations following earlier multi-month rallies,” Ansari says. Investors also no longer see the war as a short shock, and have turned more defensive and selective. The ADX’s trailing P/E has slid from 19.6x at the end of 2025 to 16.3x.

Dubai lost momentum: The DFM General Index slipped 3.2%, with seven of its eight sectors in the red, including real estate, down 4.3%. Banks were the biggest drag, Ansari says. Emirates NBD fell 6.4% after 3Q income held flat q-o-q at AED 6.4 bn, weighed down by AED 2.1 bn in impairments tied to DenizBank. Emaar Development lost 7.3% as Dubai residential sales values fell 47% y-o-y in 3Q, according to Cavendish Maxwell. The only sector to gain was communications, up 3% on Emirates Integrated Telecom, its sole listed company. Value traded fell 24.9% to AED 10.4 bn and volumes 43.3% to 3.51 bn shares. Emaar Properties alone accounted for AED 3.9 bn, more than a third of the month’s value traded.

Oil’s rally isn’t reaching Abu Dhabi’s energy stocks: Brent rose 13.6% to USD 117.64 a barrel in October, yet the ADX Energy index fell 4.2%. Any benefit is concentrated in upstream players like Adnoc Drilling and Dana Gas, Ansari says. And for higher prices to show up in earnings, cargoes need to move freely, which they still can’t, he notes.

Will G42 become a US company?

G42 is in an unprecedented position as it preps one of the largest computing infrastructure builds in human history, our AI + Innovation desk reported this week. The sovereign-backed UAE national AI champion has loads of capital, an investor list that includes Microsoft and US private equity giant Silver Lake, and license free access to the most advanced AI chips.

But it also has a Sword of Damocles hanging over it — a Trump administration threat that it may rein in that chip access if G42 doesn’t become a US company.

Huh?: The potential requirement — squeezed into a 17-word clause about halfway through the roughly 5k-word Commerce Department rule granting licensefree access to top-end AI chips for G42, its cloud division Core42, and for eight US companies operating in the UAE — has befuddled US export control experts. They say they’ve never encountered such language before, have no idea whether to take it seriously, and don’t understand how it fits into the national security framework that’s supposed to guide export control decisions.

They also have no idea how G42 and Core42 could satisfy the requirement. Does becoming a US company just mean incorporating in a US state? Or would it require something more significant, such as selling a majority interest to a US company? (G42 has held exploratory talks about such a transaction, Bloomberg reported in September, though it didn’t name any US companies in the mix. The company already includes Microsoft among its investors.) Or could there be some sort of middle ground, such as firewalling off particularly sensitive parts of the company under US control with a separate board of directors?

Here’s what G42 tells us in a statement: “We already maintain substantial ties to the United States through our partnerships, US shareholders, and US-based entities, and we continuously assess [prospects] that support our long-term objectives. We will continue to operate in full compliance with all applicable requirements. We have no further comment on specific regulatory or corporate considerations at this stage.” The Commerce Department division that oversees US export controls did not respond to a request for comment.

If the Trump administration decides to insist on G42 and Core42 becoming US companies, that would pose a profound question for Emirati leaders: is it more important to retain control over G42 as a technological crown jewel, demonstrating the Gulf’s power and influence? Or to ensure high-end chip access — even at the cost of G42 becoming an American company?

Don’t underestimate the reputational stakes: Forfeiting G42’s identity as a UAE company would mark a significant blow to the proposition that a Gulf-based player — sitting outside the two AI superpowers of the US and China — could nevertheless be a major actor on the frontier of this new technology.

The fine print: The US Commerce Department’s July rule moved the UAE off of lists of countries flagged for chemical weapons and missile proliferation concerns and onto another list, Country Group A:5. That list includes Washington’s closest export control partners, which qualify for the most generous exemptions from US export licensing requirements.

The finer print: The rule carved out an exception for top-shelf AI chips — US exporters still need licences to ship them to anyone in the UAE except G42, Core42, and other approved entities. The rule also says that G42 and Core42’s status will expire in April 2027 unless they become US companies or secure renewed approval from the Commerce Department. The rule specifically called out the UAE’s cooperation during the ongoing US war against Iran.

AND- This is all playing out inside an immensely complex US-UAE relationship. That relationship includes a USD 1.4 tn US investment pledge, US security commitments, and the future of US military bases, which have become more important since the Iran war began. “We don’t know what all of the considerations are, what are all the aspects of these various [agreements], and what are all the linkages,” Hdeel Abdelhady LinkedIn, a Washington, DC-based export controls and emerging tech attorney at MassPoint PLLC, tells EnterpriseAM.

So, what’s going on? Experts are left to read Washington’s intentions from the text of the rule. Three readings stand out:

Keeping options open: The rule rewards the UAE for its cooperation during the Iran war while leaving Washington an exit if problems arise, such as concerns about AI technology reaching China. The April 2027 expiry builds in a checkpoint;
A bargaining chip: A time-limited exemption gives Washington something to negotiate over. Future renewals could be folded into the wider economic relationship, including the USD 1.4 tn investment pledge;
An appetite for equity: The administration has shown a taste for taking stakes in strategically important companies, including Intel, and a “golden share” in US Steel as a condition of its sale to Nippon Steel. A US stake in a company positioned to be a major AI player across the region would fit that pattern.

There could also be some business drawbacks for a US-controlled G42. Most prominently, one of G42’s big pitches to customers has been “sovereign AI,” the notion that governments and critical industry sectors in the Middle East and Africa can run AI workloads using G42 computing power and retain the same jurisdictional and political control over it that they would if they controlled the whole technology stack.

That argument would be a lot harder to make if G42 were an American company subject to American laws — which specifically require that US law enforcement with a warrant can access US companies’ data wherever it exists in the world. “It would fatally compromise the core pitch of [their] new niche product, sovereign AI data centers, which is ‘we are not subject to US laws,’” Andrew Leber LinkedIn, a Tulane University political science professor focused on the MENA region and a non-resident scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace think tank, tells EnterpriseAM.

Facts on the ground: The UAE also has some leverage of its own if the Trump administration pushes a version of US ownership that it doesn’t want to accept. G42 investors Microsoft and Silver Lake both have a lot of influence in Washington and a stake in seeing the company’s chip access continue. Plus, the UAE is also a big investor in US AI labs — including Anthropic, OpenAI, and xAI — at a time when AI is largely responsible for keeping the US stock market afloat. Those facts would give the Trump administration a big incentive to keep the top-end chips flowing.

Adnoc’s XRG buys Shell’s North West Shelf stake for USD 1.4 bn, its first foothold in Australian LNG

Adnoc is adding Australian LNG to its portfolio, with gas it can sell into Asia without going through the Strait of Hormuz. XRG, Adnoc’s international energy investment arm, is buying Shell’s 16.7% non-operated stake in Australia’s North West Shelf LNG project for a base consideration of USD 1.45 bn, plus a milestone-linked contingent payment, the two companies said in statements (here and here). This is XRG’s first move into Australian LNG.

Gulf producers have been moving faster to secure LNG outside the strait since the war began. XRG wants to rank among the world’s top five LNG suppliers, a push that started before the war. The disruption to Gulf energy flows has made it more urgent for the region’s companies to find assets elsewhere to keep customers supplied, Bloomberg says, and Qatar is doing the same to cut its exposure to Hormuz. XRG says North West Shelf puts it close to demand growth in Asia-Pacific.

XRG gets the whole chain, from gas fields to offtake: The stake includes upstream gas interests, pipeline and midstream infrastructure, and offtake arrangements, alongside Shell’s share of liquefaction capacity. North West Shelf, Australia’s first LNG project and operated by Woodside, can liquefy 14.3 mn tons a year, almost 3% of global capacity, Bloomberg reports. Shell’s share is about 2.4 mn tons a year, which puts the base price at roughly USD 600 per ton of annual capacity, by our math. XRG also takes on Shell’s share of the project’s decommissioning obligations.

For Shell, the sale is a way out of a mature asset: “The sale realizes value from a mature, non-operated asset,” says Cederic Cremers, Shell’s integrated gas president.

Mature, in this case, means the original fields are running down: Declining output from North West Shelf’s original fields has unlocked capacity at the Karratha Gas Plant, and the project is moving toward a mix of its own production and processing third-party gas for a fee, according to Shell. Woodside’s Browse development would pipe gas about 900 km to Karratha, but it is still in concept definition, with regulatory approvals ongoing. Bloomberg says the contingent payment may be linked to Browse, in which Shell sold its own interest in 2023.

XRG is returning to Australia after walking away from Santos: An XRG-led consortium with ADQ and Carlyle dropped its USD 18.7 bn bid for Australian gas producer Santos in September 2025. XRG then entered preliminary talks with Shell over the North West Shelf in February 2026, with Aramco-backed MidOcean Energy also reportedly interested.

Australia now sits alongside LNG wagers XRG has made in the Americas: XRG holds equity in all five trains of the Rio Grande LNG development in Texas, alongside a 20-year agreement to buy 1.9 mn tons annually, and is backing a USD 24 bn LNG project in Argentina with YPF and Eni. Adnoc has combined its LNG marketing and trading operations into a platform targeting a marketable portfolio of 47 mn tons annually by 2035, bringing together Adnoc Gas, XRG, and Adnoc Trading. It is also expanding its Asian customer base, including an agreement to supply Thailand’s Gulf Group with around 2 mn tons of LNG starting in 2027.

Magrabi’s Dubai Optical acquisition set to grow UAE store network by 18% to 97 outlets

Regional eyewear retailer Magrabi Retail is poised to expand its UAE network by 18% to 97 stores through its acquisition of Dubai Optical — its latest move in a regional buying spree. The retailer has agreed to acquire 100% of the optical chain, adding 15 outlets across Dubai, Sharjah, Fujairah, and Ajman to its existing 82 stores, a Magrabi spokesperson tells EnterpriseAM. The spokesperson declined to share the value of the acquisition.

What’s included? Dubai Optical operates 19 stores under the Dubai Optical and Optivision brands, but only 15 are being acquired, according to a company announcement. Any Optivision outlets included in the transaction will be rebranded as Dubai Optical, the spokesperson tells us, while the four excluded stores will remain with their existing shareholders. Completion requires merger control clearance from the UAE Economy Ministry, with no closing date announced.

REMEMBER- Magrabi has been shopping around: Magrabi previously merged with Rivoli Vision, combining their regional optical retail operations, and has since expanded through Kuwait's Kefan Optics. Its planned majority acquisition of Egypt’s Baraka Optics is still awaiting regulatory approval.

And it’s not done shopping: Magrabi tells EnterpriseAM it will continue considering expansion via both acquisitions and organic growth in the UAE, although no further expansion targets have been announced. The retailer cited Dubai Optical’s loyal customer base and physical network as making it a prime takeover target, adding that it aims to retain the identities of established local brands it acquires. It also signaled long-term confidence in the sector, citing the UAE’s position as a retail and tourism hub. Its immediate priority, however, is integrating Dubai Optical while preserving its existing brand and customer base.

Alef Education reports robust 9M results

Strong cost efficiency helped drive a 12.5% y-o-y increase in Alef Education’s 3Q bottom line to AED 149 mn, with revenues recording AED 243.8 mn, up 13.3%, the company said in its management discussion and analysis (pdf). Operating expenses dipped 30.8% y-o-y during the quarter.

In 9M, revenue rose 5.7% y-o-y to AED 605.3 mn, and net income saw a similar 5.7% growth to AED 385.4 mn. The lion’s share of revenue came from its education solutions segment at AED 505.6 mn, while its support and services segment grew the most at 40.7% y-o-y to AED 99.7 mn, lifted by IT setup fees following higher student enrollment at the start of the new academic year. Its growing number of B2B and B2G contracts also helped boost results.

Total comes back for more from Adnoc, Adia takes a slice of Tunisia’s Vermeg, Hoxton Wealth secures outside investment

TotalEnergies comes back for more Adnoc LNG

Adnoc Gas will supply TotalEnergies with up to 1.6 mn tons of LNG under a five-year agreement (pdf), extending a partnership that ran under an earlier USD 1-1.2 bn, three-year contract between 2023 and 2025. Adnoc Gas didn’t put a value on the new agreement or clarify where the supply will come from.

REMEMBER- The agreement lands four months after Adnoc pulled its LNG marketing under one roof, combining the Adnoc Gas and XRG marketing teams with Adnoc Trading’s desk. The platform is targeting 47 mtpa of marketable LNG by 2035, with Ruwais LNG’s two 4.8 mtpa trains providing part of that supply. Adnoc Gas didn’t say whether the TotalEnergies contract went through the new platform.

Adia takes a slice of Tunisia’s Vermeg

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (Adia) is taking a minority stake in Tunisian-founded financial software group Vermeg as part of US private equity firm Advent’s acquisition of the company, according to a statement. Advent is acquiring the stakes held by UK investor Charterhouse Capital Partners and founder Badreddine Ouali, who will keep a stake and stay on as vice chairman. The size and value of the stake were not disclosed.

Vermeg? The firm makes post-trade processing and collateral management software for central banks, clearing houses, central securities depositories, custodians, and buy- and sell-side firms, plus life and health ins. Policy administration systems, mainly for insurers in France and the Benelux. The acquisition is expected to close in 1H 2027.

ALSO- Adia wrote a USD 2 bn ticket for Ardian’s record secondaries raise: Adia committed USD 2 bn of the USD 30 bn Ardian raised last year for the largest-ever secondaries platform, along with rights to make additional co-investments. That’s one of the largest commitments of its kind on record, Bloomberg reports, citing people it says are familiar with the matter. Adia and Ardian declined to comment.

REMEMBER- An Adia subsidiary partnered with Ardian in March on a new real estate secondaries platform. The sovereign wealth fund has also been building its exposure to follow-on transactions: it anchored a USD 770 mn continuation vehicle for CDH Investments’ flagship fund in January.

Hoxton Wealth secures minority investment

London- and Dubai-based Hoxton Wealth has taken its first outside money, receiving a USD 135 mn minority investment from Aspirity Partners, according to a statement. Hoxton, founded in 2018, advises about 10k clients across 10 jurisdictions and manages more than USD 5 bn in assets. The fresh capital will fund further international expansion, adviser hiring, and select acquisitions. Founder and CEO Chris Ball says the firm already has acquisition prospects lined up. The transaction still needs customary regulatory approvals.

Why it matters: Hoxton advises internationally mobile clients with cross-border wealth, the expat money Dubai is built on. Aspirity puts that market at about USD 1.2 tn in assets, with only 25% of it currently advised.

ADVISORS- Continuum Advisory Partners was Hoxton Wealth’s financial advisor, while Proskauer served as counsel. Ardea Partners acted as Aspirity’s financial advisor, with Dechert as counsel and Oliver Wyman as commercial due diligence advisor.

Regional war expected to wipe 150 bn cbm off LNG supply through 2030, keeping the market tight into 2027

The regional war is expected to wipe 150 bn cbm off global LNG supply between 2026 and 2030, equivalent to 15% of the new liquefaction capacity expected to come online over that period, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Tuesday in its Global Gas Security Review (pdf). Most of the losses will come in 2026 and 2027, delaying the wave of new supply that was expected to ease a tight global gas market. Global LNG supply is on track to fall 3%, or nearly 20 bn cbm, this year — its biggest annual decline on record.

That’s a reversal from where the agency started the year. In January, the IEA expected a sharp rise in LNG supply to ease market fundamentals in 2026. Falling demand is what has kept the market from going short, because consumption is set to fall faster than supply this year, by our read. Global gas consumption is expected to fall around 1.5% this year, marking its third annual decline since 2020, according to the IEA. Demand in Asia Pacific is forecast to drop 1.5% as higher LNG prices push power producers toward coal, while Europe is expected to see a 3% decline as industrial consumers cut back. In the Middle East, damage to production and processing facilities is expected to drive a 10% drop in consumption. Higher prices have also priced some buyers out of the spot market altogether. Pakistan, for example, twice rejected a September LNG cargo priced at nearly USD 27 / mmBtu.

And reopening the Strait of Hormuz won’t bring Gulf LNG supply back to pre-war levels overnight. Missile strikes in March damaged two production trains at Qatar’s Ras Laffan facility, taking 12.8 mn tons of annual capacity offline, or roughly 17% of the country’s total. QatarEnergy’s latest assessment, cited by the IEA, is that it could take three years to restore operations — a cumulative loss of more than 50 bn cbm of LNG supply. The first train of its North Field East expansion is now expected to come online in the first half of 2027, a delay from its previous end-2026 target. Meanwhile, the four LNG liquefaction projects that reached final investment decisions since March, all in North America, won’t start production until 2030 at the earliest.

Europe could be competing for significantly more LNG next summer. EU gas storage stood at 75% at the end of October, below the bloc’s 80% minimum fill target, itself a derogation from the regulation’s 90% and its lowest level since 2013, according to the IEA. The agency estimates the EU would need to inject 57-83 bn cbm next summer to bring storage back to average levels by November 2027, compared with a five-year average of 50 bn cbm. The market is already reflecting that pressure, with May 2027 contracts trading above those for November 2027 and the spread recently hitting a record high, Bloomberg reports. That reverses the usual seasonal pricing pattern, where summer gas trades at a markdown to winter.

Egypt, meanwhile, is becoming increasingly exposed to the LNG market. The country’s LNG imports rose 70% y-o-y, or 6.5 bn cbm, in January-October, with net imports exceeding domestic gas production for the first time in July. Tenders signed before the war helped Egypt avoid the worst of the summer price increases, but that protection was expected to fade toward year-end, Kpler’s JP Lacouture told EnterpriseAM in September.

The higher prices are now starting to bite. The government has asked suppliers to defer five of the 15 LNG cargoes scheduled for November after the cost per shipment rose above USD 100 mn, roughly twice what it was in September, Asharq Business reports, citing an unnamed government official. Gas allocations to fertilizer and methanol plants have also been cut by 20% since Monday, 2 November, according to Asharq. Egypt had already budgeted for a 26% increase in its gas import bill to USD 10.7 bn this fiscal year.

OUR TAKE- The LNG supply glut expected this year is looking increasingly unlikely, with the market now facing tighter conditions well into 2027. More supply was supposed to give importers some breathing room on prices, particularly those able to hold off on purchases. But with the IEA now expecting a longer supply shortfall and Europe likely to need more LNG to refill storage next summer, waiting carries considerably more risk. Some buyers are already responding by cutting consumption, whether through switching to coal in Asia or reducing industrial gas allocations in Egypt. Deferring cargoes, however, leaves the demand in place and shifts the purchase to a later date, when competition for supply could be just as intense. For import-dependent countries such as Egypt, securing contracted volumes ahead of next summer could offer more protection than relying on the spot market once European buyers return.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Seoul falls on AI jitters: South Korea’s Kospi opened -2.5% yesterday and kept falling through the session to close -3.6% down, dragged down by tech stocks as investors remain worried that AI spending is growing too fast. Japanese markets, including the Nikkei 225, were closed yesterday for the Culture Day national holiday.

ADX	9,463	-0.3% (YTD: -5.3%)
DFM	5,811	+0.1% (YTD: -3.9%)
Nasdaq Dubai UAE20	4,726	-0.2% (YTD: -3.3%)
USD : AED CBUAE	Buy 3.67	Sell 3.67
EIBOR	4.0% o/n	5.1% 1 yr
TASI	9,876	-0.1% (YTD: -5.9%)
EGX30	49,256	+1.8% (YTD: +17.8%)
S&P 500	7,569	+0.4% (YTD: +10.6%)
FTSE 100	10,638	-1.1% (YTD: +7.1%)
Euro Stoxx 50	6,145	-0.5% (YTD: +6.0%)
Brent crude	USD 103.60	-1.1%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 2.90	0.0%
Gold	USD 3,938	-0.1%
BTC	USD 77,601	-1.1% (YTD: -11.5%)
Lunate JP Morgan UAE Bond UCITS ETF	AED 3.56	0.0% (YTD: -5.1%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	149.06	+0.1% (YTD: -1.9%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	20.83	-1.5% (YTD: +39.3%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The ADX fell 0.3% yesterday on turnover of AED 1 bn. The index is down 5.3% YTD.

In the green: Rak Co. for White Cement & Construction Materials (+6.3%), GFH Bank (+6.0%), and Adnoc Logistics & Services (+2.2%).

In the red: Sudatel Telecommunications Group Company (-4.9%), Hayah Ins. Company (-4.7%), and Aram Group (-3.6%).

Over on the DFM, the index rose 0.1% on turnover of AED 979.4 mn. Meanwhile, Nasdaq Dubai was down 0.2%.

CALENDAR

NOVEMBER

2-5 November (Monday-Thursday): Adipec, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

2-6 November (Monday-Friday): Dubai Future Finance Week, Dubai.

4 November (Wednesday): DIP Holding final offer price announcement.

4 November (Wednesday): Digital Transformation Summit, Sofitel, Abu Dhabi.

4-16 November (Wednesday-Monday): ADIB rights trading period.

9-10 November (Monday-Tuesday): Annual government meetings, Abu Dhabi.

9-12 November (Monday-Thursday): EMEA Council on Hotel, Restaurant and Institutional Education Conference, Dubai College of Tourism, Dubai.

9-13 November (Monday-Friday): World Congress of Military Med, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

10-12 November (Tuesday-Thursday): Dubai International Electric Vehicle Exhibition & Conference, Dubai World Trade Center.

10-24 November (Tuesday-Tuesday): ADIB rights issue subscription period.

11 November (Wednesday): DIP Holding expected to begin trading on the DFM.

16-17 November (Monday-Tuesday): The Mining Show, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

16-18 November (Monday-Wednesday): World Police Summit, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

17-18 November (Tuesday-Wednesday): Data Center World Middle East, Dusit Thani Hotel, Abu Dhabi.

18-19 November (Wednesday-Thursday): Touchdown Middle East 2026, Conrad Abu Dhabi Etihad Towers, Abu Dhabi.

19 November (Thursday): Middle East Defense Conference, Rabdan Academy Headquarters, Abu Dhabi.

23-26 November (Monday-Sunday): Big 5 Global, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

25-26 November (Saturday-Sunday): Doers Summit, Dubai Silicon Oasis, Dubai.

DECEMBER

2-4 December (Wednesday-Friday): UN Water Conference, UAE.

4-6 December (Friday-Sunday): Formula 1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, Abu Dhabi.

8-9 December (Tuesday-Wednesday): Capital Market Summit, Madinat Jumeirah, Dubai.

8-9 December (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

7-10 December (Monday-Thursday): Abu Dhabi Finance Week, Al Maryah Island, Abu Dhabi.

8-10 December (Tuesday-Thursday): Abu Dhabi Water & Power Week, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

8-10 December (Tuesday-Thursday): Middle East & North Africa Business Aviation Association Show, DWC, Dubai Airshow Site.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

1 January: Deadline for large businesses to implement e-invoicing;
14-17 January (Thursday-Sunday): MOC27 Motor, Outdoor & Camping Festival, Dubai Sevens Stadium, Dubai.
1Q 2027: Completion of the first phase of Hassyan seawater desalination project;
1-3 February (Monday-Wednesday): World Governments Summit;
31 March: Small businesses with annual revenues of less than AED 50 mn are obliged to contract with an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation;
31 March: Government entities are required to appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation;
21-22 April (Wednesday-Thursday): Token2049, Dubai;
11-13 May (Tuesday-Thursday): Middle East Energy, Expo City, Dubai.
31 May-2 June (Monday-Wednesday): RailX Dubai, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.
1 July: Deadline for small businesses to implement e-invoicing;
1 October: Deadline for governments to implement e-invoicing;
November: HR Tech, Abu Dhabi.
Abu Dhabi’s solar and battery energy facility, combining 5.2 GW of solar capacity and 19 GWh of battery storage, is set for commissioning.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2028:

Artificial Intelligence Summit.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2029:

Sibos 2029 organized by the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), Dubai;
Annual Meetings of the World Bank Group and the International Monetary Fund, Abu Dhabi;
The commissioning of the seventh phase of Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park.

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