Dubai sees most foreign outflows in the region in 2Q 2026

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: CBUAE sells AED 11.6 bn M-bills + Emirates says no thanks to Boeing

Good morning, everyone. While foreign investors are pulling back from UAE markets, for now, Adnoc is doubling down.

Our big story today is news that Dubai saw the biggest foreign investor outflows in the GCC for the second straight quarter. Abu Dhabi wasn’t spared either, though selling in the capital was milder.

Meanwhile, Adnoc has given the green light to a USD 6.2 bn development of the gas cap at its Umm Shaif field, as it looks to squeeze more value out of an asset that’s been producing since 1962.

The note of confidence comes just as the International Energy Agency said it’s “closely monitoring the situation in oil markets” after Houthi threats to blockade Bab El Mandeb risk cutting off an increasingly important waterway acting as a workaround for Hormuz.

Plus: The CBUAE sold AED 11.6 bn in M-bills, and MGX and BlackRock’s GIP have closed their USD 40 bn takeover of Aligned Data Centers.

Liquidity is stabilizing

The Central Bank of the UAE (CBUAE) sold AED 11.6 bn in monetary bills (M-bills) across four tranches on Monday at yields ranging from 3.85% on the shortest tenor to 4.32% on the longest, according to Emirates NBD Research (pdf). Spreads on the newly auctioned bills landed 18-30 basis points above comparable USD benchmark rates, matching recent auction results — suggesting that systemwide liquidity conditions have steadied, according to Emirates NBD.

The CBUAE’s own auction note (pdf) had offered up to AED 13.9 bn across the four tenors, but the gap sits entirely at the short end: the 28-day tap issuance drew AED 2.7 bn against a AED 4.4 bn ceiling, and the 84-day new issuance drew AED 900 mn against a AED 1.5 bn ceiling. The 168-day tap (AED 2 bn) and 336-day new issuance (AED 6 bn) were both allotted in full. That could reflect either softer demand for short-dated paper at these yields or a deliberate CBUAE choice to lean into longer-tenor liquidity absorption.

Flight disruptions persist

Air France has delayed its Dubai and Riyadh return for a second time, missing a 20 July restart target, Gulf News reports. Dubai stays suspended through 27 July, Riyadh through 24 July, and Beirut — also pushed back — through 2 August.

None of the airlines that suspended Gulf routes this year have actually resumed them on schedule. British Airways has pushed its Dubai suspension to 25 October and Riyadh to 8 August; Lufthansa and Swiss have extended their Dubai suspensions to 13 September; and Cathay Pacific and Singapore Airlines have moved flights to late October.

REMEMBER- The European Union Aviation Safety Agency is advising airlines not to fly through Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE, or the western Gulf of Oman through 29 July.

Emirates says no thanks to Boeing

Emirates informed Boeing it won’t accept the first 10 aircraft from its 777X order, arguing that the early 2019 models have been so heavily modified that upgrading them to match the final certified design is no longer feasible, President Tim Clark said at the Farnborough Airshow, The Telegraph reports.

BACKGROUND- Emirates ordered 270 777X aircraft from Boeing at roughly USD 440 mn apiece and has been waiting on the jets since a 2019 static-test failure set the program back. The airline now expects its first 777-9 deliveries in 2Q 2027 — about seven years behind schedule — while US regulators aren’t expected to certify the aircraft until late 2026 or early 2027, Reuters reports.

REMEMBER- Emirates is building out its fleet: The airline ordered 65 additional 777-9s for USD 38 bn last November, taking its total aircraft orderbook to 375 units, including 323 widebodies. While it waits, the carrier has committed USD 5 bn to retrofitting its existing A380s and 777X to extend their service lives.

WEATHER- It’s warmer in Abu Dhabi today, with a high of 42°, while Dubai will see a high of 40°C, with both seeing a low of 32°C, according to our favorite weather app.

The big story abroad

No single story is dominating the front pages this morning, though a few updates are making headlines.

Israel has pulled back its forces from southern Lebanon as a US-brokered truce takes effect. The truce is premised on Beirut exerting military authority over Iran-backed Hezbollah forces. This coincides with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun’s sit-down with US President Donald Trump yesterday, the first summit between the two nations' heads of state in roughly 20 years.

SpaceX is gearing up to unlock as much as USD 116 bn in stocks, as insider trading restrictions lift on 6 August, marking one of the largest share unlocks in history. The window allows early backers and private market buyers to exit with substantial returns, while potentially creating liquidity for short sellers to capitalize on bearish momentum.

LSE open 24/7? The London Stock Exchange revealed a plan to launch a separate venue offering overnight trading in 1H 2027, which will initially be open to funds tracking the UK and US markets. The move is being billed as a way to wrest attention from 24-hour crypto platforms.

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UAE stocks extend foreign investor exodus as Dubai leads GCC outflows in 2Q

Foreign investors continued to head for the exits on UAE stock markets in 2Q, with Dubai posting the GCC’s largest foreign outflows for the second straight quarter as regional tensions kept investors on edge, according to Kamco Invest’s GCC Trading Activity Quarterly Report (pdf). The Emirates recorded USD 828.8 mn in outflows during the period.

Foreign investors sold a net USD 641.5 mn worth of Dubai-listed shares, extending the USD 654 mn they offloaded in 1Q. Abu Dhabi also remained in negative territory, recording net foreign selling of USD 187.3 mn.

IN CONTEXT- Regional instability has put the UAE’s main exchanges under pressure since the start of the conflict. Oil pricing volatility, disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, international interest rate trends, and seasonal lulls have also all affected activity, despite the UAE’s solid economic fundamentals. Dubai is generally more exposed to disruption in the tourism, aviation, real estate, and global capital flows areas, key sectors for its market.

Trading activity also softened across both UAE exchanges. Dubai’s trading volumes fell 34.9% q-o-q, while Abu Dhabi posted the steepest decline in the GCC, with volumes dropping 41.8%. The value of shares traded also declined on both exchanges, even as total trading value across GCC markets rose 8.8% during the quarter.

Elsewhere in the region

Kuwait followed with USD 480.3 mn in net foreign selling, ahead of Qatar (USD 375.4 mn). Oman and Bahrain also posted net outflows, though on a smaller scale.

Saudi Arabia stood out as the region’s exception. It was the only GCC market to attract net foreign inflows during the quarter, drawing in USD 1.6 bn, while the rest of the region moved in the opposite direction.

The 1Q comparison: Overseas investors bought USD 1.5 bn of GCC stocks in 1Q, bringing 1H total purchases to USD 1.2 bn — an 83.1% y-o-y drop from 1H 2025.

Saudi Arabia also dominated the region’s most actively traded stocks. Five Saudi-listed companies featured among the GCC’s 10 most traded names by value in 2Q, led by Al Rajhi Bank with USD 6.9 bn worth of shares changing hands. Aramco ranked second at USD 6 bn, while Dubai’s Emaar Properties came in third at just under USD 6 bn.

More domestic backing: Despite the foreign exodus, GCC investors (barring Bahrain due to a lack of data) were net buyers in 2Q, clocking in USD 62.4 mn of purchases and reversing 1Q’s net sales of USD 269 mn. Investors from Saudi Arabia led the charge, helping offset net selling by GCC investors across exchanges in Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Qatar, and Kuwait.

In context

ICYMI- UAE stocks showed signs of recovery at the start of the month, clawing back their war losses. At the time, analysts told us that a reversal in regional geopolitical risks and improving investor confidence, resilient earnings from major banks, and government support measures were driving the rebound. Still, at the start of the conflict, experts said the UAE was likely to see capital outflows from foreign investors in the short-to-medium term.

Adnoc reaches FID on USD 6.2 bn Umm Shaif gas cap

Adnoc reached a final investment decision (FID) on the AED 22.6 bn (USD 6.2 bn) development of the gas cap at Abu Dhabi’s offshore Umm Shaif field, according to a press release. The project is being developed alongside concession partners TotalEnergies, Eni, and China National Petroleum Corporation.

BACKGROUND- Umm Shaif is not a new discovery — it is one of Adnoc’s oldest offshore producing assets and supplied its first oil export back in 1962. The new project will develop its gas cap — the layer of natural gas sitting above the oil accumulation — allowing Adnoc to extract additional value from a field that has already been producing for more than six decades.

Why it matters: Abu Dhabi aims to achieve gas self-sufficiency by the end of the decade to ensure it isn't caught short if flows from Qatar — which currently supplies a third of its needs — come to a halt. Umm Shaif's gas cap — plus the pending Bab project — is the supply side of that plan, while the LNG buildout at Ruwais is the export side.

Plus: The UAE’s exit from Opec in May freed Adnoc from output quotas, so it can now expand production without worrying about capacity it isn’t allowed to use. The project will add more than 600 mmcf / d of gas and associated liquids from 2030 — a meaningful addition against Adnoc's current 11.5 bcf / d of output.

What we know so far: The investment includes three engineering, procurement, and construction contracts worth a combined AED 18.8 bn for offshore infrastructure. It also covers a AED 1.3 bn program to drill 14 wells, with Adnoc Drilling carrying out the work.

Part of a much bigger gas push: The FID follows Abu Dhabi’s award last month of the Bab gas-cap development and production concession to Adnoc and international partners. Adnoc has also launched an LNG marketing and trading platform, targeting 47 mn tons of LNG sales annually by 2035, while Ruwais LNG has been converting heads of agreement into sales and purchase agreements.

AI can flag the fraud. The bank still has to own the call.

AI fraud defense is becoming a fixed cost of modern banking. Across the region, financial institutions are using AI systems to analyze behavior, context, and risk in real time, anticipating threats before they materialize. The harder part is what happens around the model: who trusts it, who challenges it, and who owns the final call.

Predictive fraud systems only work when organizations move from a “tool mindset” to a “judgment mindset.” The model can flag risk, but the institution still has to decide what to do with that signal. At Mashreq, that discipline is structural: fraud, cyber, and business teams continuously validate, challenge, refine, and feed back into the models so they stay relevant. That shared loop matters because fraud patterns change quickly, and a model left alone can become yesterday’s defense. AI treated as a black box creates risk. AI used with governance gives teams better judgment under pressure.

The customer experience depends on that judgment. Predictive fraud prevention moves banks beyond blunt “approve or block" logic and toward adaptive, risk-driven decisioning. Low-risk activity should keep moving. Controls should appear when confidence drops. That is the point of “friction right”: applying the minimum effective control once risk rises, so customers are protected without feeling punished.

The same logic gives product teams room to move: when fraud controls are built into digital journeys from the start, banks can launch features with greater confidence instead of adding security after the fact. That gives growth teams room to move faster without treating risk as someone else’s problem.

The test for any bank using AI in fraud prevention is simple: when the model intervenes, can the team explain why — and stand behind the decision? The banks that get the most from AI security will be the ones whose people keep the model explainable and accountable long after launch.

Olivier Busolini, Group Head of Information Security, Mashreq

Novo Nordisk names 18-year veteran Venkat Kalyan as general manager of its Gulf business

Global healthcare firm Novo Nordisk appointed Venkat Kalyan (LinkedIn) as general manager for Novo Nordisk Gulf, it said in a press release. Kalyan, who described the GCC markets as “exceptionally well positioned to lead the next phase of healthcare transformation,” will oversee the company’s business across the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman, and Yemen.

BACKGROUND- Novo Nordisk recently chose the UAE as the first market outside the US to launch the pill version of Wegovy, and the drugmaker is also collaborating with the Emirates Drug Establishment on pharma manufacturing and supply chain resilience.

The new hire: Kalyan has been at Novo Nordisk for nearly 18 years, most recently serving as general manager of the Gulf emerging markets cluster. Previously, Kalyan worked at pharma multinational Abbott.

GFH makes USD 130 mn US exit, MGX + BlackRock finalize USD 40 bn takeover, Empower expands Dubai network, another Jaywan development

GFH exits USD 130 mn in US assets

GFH Partners — the Dubai-based global asset management arm of Bahraini GFH Financial Group — has exited a USD 130 mn portfolio of US-based logistics and industrial assets, with investor returns expected to exceed 10%, according to a press release.

The firm has been building a sizeable American real estate book since 2023: It closed a USD 300 mn logistics and industrial fund in 2024, deployed USD 450 mn into medical clinics and student housing in late 2023 and early 2024, and later added a further USD 300 mn student housing acquisition that took that portfolio's AUM to USD 900 mn. It’s also still deploying fresh capital across niche segments including cold storage, build-to-suit industrial facilities, and transportation logistics, making this less a pullback and more like active portfolio management.

REMEMBER- The firm was looking to increase its assets under management by at least USD 1 bn in 2026, aiming to reach USD 7.5 bn by year-end. It also had plans to open three new funds in 1Q, as well as acquire income-generating assets in Saudi Arabia, and launch a new storage facility development in Riyadh.

MGX, BlackRock finalize USD 40 bn Aligned Data Centers takeover

MGX closes USD 40 bn Aligned Data Centers acquisition: Abu Dhabi state AI investor MGX and BlackRock’s Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP) have completed their USD 40 bn acquisition of Aligned Data Centers — one of the largest data center buyouts on record — from Macquarie Asset Management and its partners, the firms said in a statement.

REMEMBER- The transaction marks the first investment under the Artificial Intelligence Infrastructure Partnership (AIP), which is a vehicle launched by MGX, BlackRock, GIP, Microsoft, and Nvidia to deploy capital into AI infrastructure. The platform aims to mobilize some USD 30 bn in equity, potentially reaching USD 100 bn including debt.

MGX has plenty to spend, recently raising over USD 50 bn from regional sovereign funds, global pension funds, and other institutional investors to speed up deployment across AI infrastructure and technology. The AI investor is targeting more than USD 100 bn in assets and plans to deploy as much as USD 10 bn annually over the next few years.

Empower expands district cooling network with new Al Sufouh Plant

Emirates Central Cooling Systems (Empower) is expanding its district cooling capacity in Dubai, awarding a construction contract for a 23.4k refrigeration tons (RT) plant in Al Sufouh 2, according to a DFM disclosure (pdf). Building work is already underway, and the facility is scheduled for completion in 3Q 2027. Capacity will go toward commercial, residential, and office buildings in the area.

DP World secures EUR 25 mn for Romania port

DP World is electrifying its Constanța South Container Terminal (CSCT), the main container facility at Romania's largest seaport, under a EUR 100 mn green upgrade, backed by a EUR 25 mn EBRD senior loan and a EUR 19.8 mn EU grant. The work covers power networks, cold ironing for docked ships, transformer stations, grid connections, and a shift to electric cranes and terminal tractors, cutting emissions at one of the Black Sea's busiest transport hubs. DP World’s CSCT unit runs the terminal under a concession lasting until 2049.

Another Jaywan development

Majid Al Futtaim has started accepting Jaywan cards across more than 200 locations in the UAE, becoming one of the first major retailers to fully roll out the country’s national payment scheme across its physical network, according to a press release. Customers can now use Jaywan cards at the group’s retail, entertainment, and hospitality destinations, with online acceptance set to follow in the coming weeks.

ICYMI- Jaywan is gaining ground. Earlier this week, the Central Bank of the UAE said that every licensed bank and financial institution will start issuing Jaywan cards via a phased rollout. The cards process domestic transactions locally through UAESwitch instead of routing them through Visa or Mastercard's networks, which officials have said cuts processing costs and keeps payment data onshore.

China’s quant funds post their worst week in more than two years on AI-stock reversal

China’s quantitative hedge funds just had their worst week in more than two years as a sharp reversal in AI-linked stocks turned the industry’s most crowded trade against it. The 73 funds built to beat the small-cap CSI 1000 fell an average 14% in the week ended 17 July, Bloomberg reports.

Marquee names took the brunt: A CSI 1000 fund run by DeepSeek founder Liang Wenfeng’s High-Flyer, which oversees more than USD 10 bn, dropped 15.7%. Beijing’s HanTak lost an estimated 16.1%, while BlackWing’s stock strategy shed 19.39%, its steepest fall since launch.

That’s a violent turn for strategies sold as safe. Some of these managers returned north of 50% last year, drawing a rush of affluent investors during China’s property slump and equity malaise. Even before the drawdown, Chinese quants’ average excess return had thinned to 3.5% in 1H — down more than 10 percentage points y-o-y — as the AI rally made diversified books hard to beat.

The damage was crowding: Momentum and beta factors had pushed both traditional and machine-learning models into the same AI-linked small-caps. When overseas chip shares sold off and spillover weakness hit China, fresh inflows dried up and managers rushed for the same exits, with deleveraging deepening the slide, E Tiger’s investment director Li Minghong told Bloomberg. Volatility ran about 50% above last year, and factors that normally offset one another fell together.

Why it matters: This is an early, real-money stress test of the AI-bubble worry markets have been circling and a reminder that “market-neutral” holds only until everyone owns the same book.

What’s next: State-backed buying drove a Tuesday rebound, and the CSRC is signaling tighter scrutiny of quant and AI-linked trading. The near-term risk to watch is earnings from AI companies, where a miss could trigger a broader correction, according to private fund manager Lingjun Investment.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets opened higher this morning, echoing the rebound on Wall Street. South Korea’s Kospi led regional gains with a 6% gain, while Japan’s Nikkei traded up 2% as investors appeared to shrug off concerns over escalating regional war.

ADX	9,785	+0.4% (YTD: -2.1%)
DFM	5,812	+0.3% (YTD: -3.9%)
Nasdaq Dubai UAE20	4,641	+0.5% (YTD: -5.1%)
USD : AED CBUAE	Buy 3.67	Sell 3.67
EIBOR	3.4% o/n	4.1% 1 yr
TASI	10,699	-0.4% (YTD: +2.0%)
EGX30	53,990	+1.6% (YTD: +29.1%)
S&P 500	7,509	+0.9% (YTD: +9.7%)
FTSE 100	10,586	+0.6% (YTD: +6.6%)
Euro Stoxx 50	6,286	+0.9% (YTD: +8.4%)
Brent crude	USD 91.46	+0.5%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 2.89	+0.8%
Gold	USD 4,098	+0.5%
BTC	USD 66,408	+1.6% (YTD: -24.2%)
Chimera JP Morgan UAE Bond UCITS ETF	AED 3.70	0.0% (YTD: -1.3%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	150.91	-0.1% (YTD: -0.7%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	17.05	-8.6% (YTD: +14.1%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The DFM rose 0.3% yesterday on turnover of AED 532.2 mn. The index is down 3.9% YTD.

In the green: Dubai Islamic Ins. and Reinsurance Co (+2.8%), Emirates Reem Investments Company (+2.7%), and Islamic Arab Ins. Company (+2.7%).

In the red: Lunate S&P UAE Shariah ETF — Share Class B - Income (-2.9%), Al Salam Bank (-2.5%), and Air Arabia (-2.2%).

Over on the ADX, the index rose 0.4% on turnover of AED 910.8 mn. Meanwhile, Nasdaq Dubai was up 0.5%.

CALENDAR

JULY

28-29 July (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

SEPTEMBER

1-3 September (Tuesday-Thursday): Middle East Energy, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

7-9 September (Monday-Wednesday): AIM Congress, Dubai World Trade Center.

7-9 September (Monday-Wednesday): International Property Show, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

12-13 September (Saturday-Sunday): Emirates International Congress on AI & Visionary Leadership in Transforming Healthcare, Adnec Center Abu Dhabi.

14-17 September (Monday-Thursday): Arabian Travel Market, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

15-16 September (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

17-19 September (Thursday-Saturday): International Real Estate & Investment Show (IREIS), Adnec, Abu Dhabi.

29-30 September (Tuesday-Wednesday): AFCM Annual Conference, Abu Dhabi.

OCTOBER

4-10 October (Sunday-Saturday): World Space Week, Abu Dhabi.

5-7 October (Monday-Wednesday): AI Everything Global, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

12-14 October (Monday-Wednesday): Airport Show, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

14-15 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Sharjah Investment Forum, Jawaher Reception and Convention Center, Sharjah.

13-15 October (Tuesday-Thursday): Annual Meeting of Global Future Leaders, Dubai.

20-22 October (Tuesday-Thursday): Future Health Summit, Adnec Center Abu Dhabi.

27-28 October (Tuesday-Wednesday): Arab Competition Forum, Dubai.

27-28 October (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

30 October (Friday): Large businesses achieving annual revenues equal to or above AED 50 mn must appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation.

Signposted to happen sometime in October 2026:

Abu Dhabi Space Week, Abu Dhabi.

NOVEMBER

2-6 November (Monday-Friday): Dubai Future Finance Week, Dubai.

4 November (Wednesday): Digital Transformation Summit, Sofitel, Abu Dhabi.

9-10 November (Monday-Tuesday): Annual government meetings, Abu Dhabi.

9-12 November (Monday-Thursday): EMEA Council on Hotel, Restaurant and Institutional Education Conference, Dubai College of Tourism, Dubai.

10-12 November (Tuesday-Thursday): Dubai International Electric Vehicle Exhibition & Conference, Dubai World Trade Center.

16-18 November (Monday-Wednesday): World Police Summit, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

18-19 November (Wednesday-Thursday): Touchdown Middle East 2026, Conrad Abu Dhabi Etihad Towers, Abu Dhabi.

25-26 November (Saturday-Sunday): Doers Summit, Dubai Silicon Oasis, Dubai.

DECEMBER

2-4 December (Wednesday-Friday): UN Water Conference, UAE.

4-6 December (Friday-Sunday): Formula 1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, Abu Dhabi.

8-9 December (Tuesday-Wednesday): Capital Market Summit, Madinat Jumeirah, Dubai.

8-9 December (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

8-10 December (Tuesday-Thursday): Abu Dhabi Water & Power Week, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

1 January: Deadline for large businesses to implement e-invoicing;
1Q 2027: Completion of the first phase of Hassyan seawater desalination project;
1-3 February (Monday-Wednesday): World Governments Summit;
31 March: Small businesses with annual revenues of less than AED 50 mn are obliged to contract with an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation;
31 March: Government entities are required to appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation;
21-22 April (Wednesday-Thursday): Token2049, Dubai;
1 July: Deadline for small businesses to implement e-invoicing;
1 October: Deadline for governments to implement e-invoicing;
Abu Dhabi’s solar and battery energy facility, combining 5.2 GW of solar capacity and 19 GWh of battery storage, is set for commissioning.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2028:

Artificial Intelligence Summit.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2029:

Sibos 2029 organized by the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), Dubai;
Annual Meetings of the World Bank Group and the International Monetary Fund, Abu Dhabi;
The commissioning of the seventh phase of Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park.

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