Good morning, friends. Yesterday saw the lowest number of attacks on the UAE since the start of the war, with 15 ballistic missiles and 18 drones launched toward the country. One interception resulted in two injuries in Abu Dhabi of Jordanian and Egyptian nationals.

Did Trump just give us reason to believe the end of the war is upon us? US President Donald Trump last night said that the war will end “very soon.” The messaging from the White House sent oil prices tumbling from nearly USD 120 / bbl during trading to below USD 90 / bbl.

Before you get your hopes up: Trump threatened bombing “at a much, much harder level” if Tehran disrupted oil supplies. The administration aims to keep down oil prices after they “went artificially up” following the US-Israeli strikes on Iran, Trump said.

Tehran isn’t backing down: Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said it would not allow “one liter of oil” to leave the region if US-Israeli strikes continue.

CLOSER TO HOME- The region is seeing more force majeure declarations and project delays, as key energy producers grapple with the war’s pressure on operational continuity.

Bahrain’s national oil firm Bapco invoked force majeure at its 400k bbl / d refinery after it was damaged by an Iranian missile strike, according to a press release. QatarEnergy also pushed back its North Field East facility expansion until at least 2027, following a drone attack on the Ras Laffan plant, Bloomberg reports, noting that the holdup at the 32 mtpa plant could stave off a supply glut.

This follows QatarEnergy’s declaration of force majeure lastweek, while more recently, both Iraq and Kuwait reduced oil production.

Diplomatically, Gulf countries are pushing for an end to the fighting. Bahrain has submitted a draft resolution to the UN Security Council calling for a ceasefire and condemning Iranian strikes on Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Jordan.

AND- The UAE ambassador to the UN called for the de-escalation of the conflict on Monday, Reuters reports. “[De-escalation] is a standing position we have, and we will continue to offer that,” he told reporters. The envoy stressed that US military bases in the Emirates would not be used for strikes against Iran, despite the “unwarranted manner” in which the Islamic Republic attacked the UAE.

Missiles now front and center in any future Iran negotiations: The UAE says any future negotiations with Iran must address Tehran’s missile and drone capabilities — not just its nuclear program — after weeks of Iranian attacks on Gulf countries, The National quotes an Emirati official as saying.

REMEMBER- The UAE has borne the brunt of Iran’s attacks so far, intercepting around 1.35k out of 1.44k Iranian drones, 253 ballistic missiles, and eight cruise missiles, according to the latest tally.

It’s been beefing up its war chest since then: South Korea reportedly expedited the delivery of 30 Cheongung-II surface-to-air guided missiles to the UAE, following an urgent request from Emirati officials. The delivery, which arrived through a UAE transport aircraft at Daegu Airport, advances the original supply schedule after the system achieved a 96% interception success rate during recent Iranian airstrikes.

IN TODAY’S ISSUE- The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz is threatening a disruption to the UAE’s — and the wider region’s — food supply, but market players tell us in this morning’s Big Story Today that the impact won’t be felt unless the disruption is prolonged. Alternatives exist, but the threat of higher prices and slower, less efficient supply chains would become a concern should the war continue for months rather than weeks.

Meanwhile, Moody’s sees the UAE’s property market potentially cooling down due to regional tensions, but it doesn’t see an outright correction. Confidence might shake, but certain segments that already suffer from tight supply are likely to continue seeing price growth.

In a parallel universe: Abu Dhabi’s new investment powerhouse, IHC’s Judan, just made its first overseas play, acquiring a stake in OpenAI investor Alpha Wave.

Sentiment watch

The consensus among analysts so far seems to be this: The majority of people just want to go back to their normal lives, not to jump ship, as Jason Tuvey, deputy chief emerging markets economist at Capital Economics, told Bloomberg, and Confluence Consultants’ Amandeep Ahuja told us earlier last week.

Most companies are keeping things flexible, with some Wall Street banks allowing staff to temporarily work from abroad depending on their situations, Bloomberg reports separately.

And others are reaffirming their commitment to the region. HSBC Group CEO Georges Elhedery said in a statement seen by EnterpriseAM that the bank “remains steadfast in [its] confidence in the GCC and in the long-term strength, resilience, and promise of the region,” referencing solid fundamentals and its endurance during times of crisis.

Bybit, the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume, issued a similar statement (pdf), with co-CEO Helen Liu saying: “Some companies are reassessing their Gulf exposure right now. We are doing the opposite. We are deepening our presence, our investment, and our commitment to this region.”

Oil watch

G7, IEA are readying the emergency oil taps as Brent fluctuates. G7 finance ministers and the International Energy Agency (IEA) held an emergency meeting to discuss a massive, coordinated release of strategic oil reserves, though they decided to hold off for now while the group monitors the situation, Bloomberg quotes France’s Finance Minister Roland Lescure as saying.

This would come after a historic surge in crude prices — triggered by the conflict in the Gulf — propelled Brent 24% higher in Asia to trade at over USD 116 as of Monday before cooling down after Trump signaled that the war is nearing its end.

US officials are reportedly considering a release of up to 400 mn barrels, CNBC reports, nearly 30% of the total IEA reserve, in an effort to soothe markets. Analysts suggest the record price spike has left them little choice, despite previous reluctance under the Trump administration.

More industry impact

AUTOMOTIVE — Hormuz closure triggers car market paralysis: While used vehicles could become a primary market focus due to an expected decline in demand for premium brands in a high-price environment, as we reported last week, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has paralyzed a corridor for Japanese and South Korean used-vehicle exports, Nikkei Asia reports. The halt on re-exports through the UAE is expected to trigger a supply crunch and jack up prices across Middle Eastern and African markets.

IN CONTEXT- Most vehicles entering the UAE are imported as fully built-up units, with the Emirates being Japan’s primary market, accounting for 15% of its total re-export volume. As escalating tensions halted regional operations, car sales came to a complete halt last week. The shift could pivot local demand toward used vehicles and more affordable segments, Fitch Solutions Senior Research Analyst Santiago Arieu told us.

And in non-war-related news…

REAL ESTATE — DIFC is still getting ready for more demand with a new commercial district: Dubai International Financial Center delivered DIFC Square ahead of schedule, adding 600k sq ft of Grade A office space to Dubai’s tightest commercial district — and arriving fully pre-leased, according to a statement from the center.

The names moving in are heavyweight enough: Tenants include Deutsche Bank, Moody's, and Bank of Singapore, with several existing firms expanding their footprint and freeing up fresh room in Gate District and Gate Village.

Think of it less as a handover and more as a pressure valve. As tenants shift to DIFC Square, roughly 100k sq ft opens elsewhere inside the district — offering modest relief for a financial hub where vacancy has become almost theoretical after occupancy hit 99.8%.

REMEMBER- DIFC is expanding in two acts, not one: While the first phase adds 600k sq ft, a second AED 100 bn buildout is designed to accommodate 42k companies and 125k workers.

CAPITAL MARKETS — Morgan Stanley downgraded its outlook on UAE equities to equal-weight due to heightened regional geopolitical uncertainty, Investing.com reports, citing a note by strategists Matthew Nguyen and Emily Woods. The bank is pivoting toward Saudi Arabia (now overweight), arguing that the Kingdom offers a better defensive hedge due to the benefits it’s set to gain from higher energy prices, and as the UAE is more exposed to geopolitical tensions. Egypt was also cut to an equal-weight rating.

A tale of two cities: The bank warns that Dubai is highly sensitive to geopolitical shocks that could dent tourism demand and cool property markets. On the other hand, it positions Abu Dhabi as resilient, supported by its heavy weighting in energy and sovereign-backed banks.

COMMODITIES — London-bound gold in Dubai is trading at a markdown as flight constraints build up bullion in the local market, Reuters reports, citing analysts and traders. Demand for the precious metal remains tepid as markets are uncertain over the length of the ongoing regional conflict. Trading in the emirate — a gold trading hub — has been disrupted for 10 days, affecting gold flows to Switzerland, Hong Kong, India, and other markets.

PSA

Several major Dubai attractions are extending temporary closures, with Global Village, Ain Dubai, and Dubai Parks and Resorts among the names suspending operations yesterday as a precautionary step following official guidance tied to ongoing regional developments. Dubai’s Global Village said it will remain closed until further notice, while Ain Dubai confirmed a temporary shutdown, and Dubai Parks and Resorts halted operations for the day.

⛈️WEATHER- More rain incoming: Be careful driving this morning. Dubai and Abu Dhabi are expected to get some more rain early today following last night’s brief drizzle, with highs of 28-29°C expected and lows of 22-23°C.

The big story abroad

Apart from Trump’s comments on the regional war (which we dive into in the news well, above), a few stories are getting top billing.

#1- Anthropic is suing the Pentagon and other federal agencies for designating the AI firm a “supply chain risk” and attempting to cancel its federal contracts. The row began when Anthropic demanded assurances that its AI tools wouldn’t be leveraged by the Pentagon for mass domestic surveillance or autonomous weapons.

#2- Goldman Sachs has pitched a new hedge fund that allows it to assume a short or long position on corporate loans, the Financial Times reports. The financial product would allow clients to capitalize on further falls in loans made to software companies, after the sector saw its stocks tumble as AI developments threatened its business offerings.

#3- Washington agreed to resolve its longstanding prosecution of Turkey’s state-run Halkbank, which it had accused of aiding Iran in evading US-imposed sanctions.

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