Conflict spreads into different countries and more sectors

The war is spreading further afield as we enter day six, with Turkey getting hit yesterday and broader ramifications rippling across different sectors, including the obvious one — oil — and commodities like aluminum.

Where things stand this morning

• A US submarine torpedoed and sank an Iranian warship off the coast of Sri Lanka. Local officials confirmed at least 80 people killed;
• Israel continues its offensive, launching a wave of fresh strikes across Iran and on Hezbollah targets in Beirut;
• Iran threatened to attack Israeli embassies “worldwide” should Israel strike its embassy in Beirut, Iranian state media reports, citing an Iranian army spokesperson;
• Nato air defenses intercepted an Iranian ballistic missile fired at Turkish airspace. The alliance condemned Tehran's indiscriminate regional attacks;
• The UAE Defense Ministry said it intercepted 121 drones, with another eight falling into its territory.

Airspace remains restricted

Aviation hubs remain restricted, and major carriers are extending flight suspensions:

• Emirates has suspended flights until Saturday, 7 March, operating a limited number of journeys, Gulf News reports;
• Etihad Airways is suspending all flights to and from Abu Dhabi until 6 March;
• Air Arabia halted flights until Monday, 9 March, including flights to and from Sharjah and Abu Dhabi, Dubai Eye reports;
• Flydubai announced a partial resumption of scheduled flights, with limited flights operating from terminals 2 and 3 at Dubai International Airport.

Fujairah is coordinating some chartered flights, working with Oman’s SalamAir to run journeys between Fujairah International Airport to India, Turkey, and Pakistan through Oman yesterday and today, according to Arabian Business.

Force majeure declared across gas and aluminum

Global gas shock: As Hormuz disruptions mount, Qatar declared force majeure on all gas exports, and the state energy giant QatarEnergy (QE) halted all liquefied natural gas (LNG) production this week, according to a post on X. With Qatar supplying 20% of the world’s and 80% of Asia’s LNG, the move is likely to put global gas markets in a weeks-long shortage.

QE indicates a minimum four-week recovery timeline, Reuters reports, citing sources familiar with the matter. The production halt has driven European and Asian gas prices to multi-year highs.

Aluminum is also taking a hit: Aluminium Bahrain declared force majeure yesterday, Reuters reports — leading aluminum prices to rise by as much as 5.1% to USD 3.4k per ton. This figure could still rise if the closure persists, with 8% of the world’s aluminum supply coming from the Bahraini smelter. The news comes after Qatari smelter Qatalum said it was shutting down operations earlier in the week.

The disruption in the Strait of Hormuz was behind the closure, a spokesperson told the newswire, adding that the firm is unable to resume shipments, even as production continues as usual, and that it was looking into alternative shipping options.