Tehran, Washington agree to two-week ceasefire hours before Trump deadline

Iran and the US reached an agreement overnight to a two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan, just hours before US President Donald Trump’s deadline for Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or else a “whole civilization will die.”

The agreement: Washington will “suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks” if Tehran reopens the Strait of Hormuz, US President Donald Trump said. Tehran responded by saying it would halt its attacks across the Gulf if the US and Israel stop their attacks. The Islamic Republic also said it would open the Strait of Hormuz, allowing vessels to transit the waterway in coordination with Iranian armed forces.

The ceasefire “does not include Lebanon,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said after the agreement was announced. That statement comes as Israel expands its evacuation orders in Lebanon, issuing directives for about 40 villages in the South to evacuate earlier on Catholic Easter Monday, including in Christian-majority areas that were largely spared from earlier displacement directives. At least 16 people were killed overnight Sunday and Monday in southern Lebanon and the Bekaa, according to L’Orient-Le Jour’s tally.

What happens next? The two sides will meet on Friday to “further negotiate for a conclusive agreement to settle all disputes,” Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said. Trump said Iran presented a 10-point proposal, which he called a “workable basis on which to negotiate.”

The question is whether the ceasefire will hold: An hour after the ceasefire announcement, the Emirati Defense Ministry warned that sounds heard this morning are the result of interceptions of missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles. Qatar and Kuwait also reported a fresh round of missile attacks, while Saudi Arabia issued a security alert to residents.

Opening up a choked strait

The reopening of Hormuz comes as no loaded LNG cargo has made it through the strait since the war began — including two loaded Qatari LNG tankers that were forced to turn back after an unsuccessful attempt to pass through the strait. The only recent transit was an Oman-linked tanker that appeared to be empty, highlighting that flows remain effectively stalled despite limited vessel movement.

And even for the lucky few who received select exemptions, confidence is shaky. Asian crude buyers are not jumping in line to secure shipments from Iraq, despite reports that the country has opened crude lift orders for traders and refiners shortly after Iran said its vessels would be exempt from Hormuz restrictions. Iraq typically sells on a free-on-board (FOB) basis, meaning buyers are responsible for the logistics and risk once the crude is loaded at origin. With the high risk associated with FOBs, Asian buyers are now probing for clarity on conditions — including whether Iraq would step in with its own fleet to de-risk shipments.