Ceasefire?

1

OPENING NOTE

US, Iran signal they’re putting down their weapons for two weeks

Good morning, friends. We’re a bit more optimistic this morning than we’ve been at any time in the past five weeks.

The US and Iran each signaled they have agreed to a two-week ceasefire. After promising to erase Iran yesterday, Trump announced a two-week pause on bombing runs and Tehran agreed to re-open Hormuz.

Some gunners may have gotten the word a bit late? An hour after the ceasefire announcement, we had clocked reports of attacks and / or security alerts in the UAE, Saudi, Qatar, and Kuwait.

First responders were still battling a fire at the key Habshan gas facility in the UAE as we prepared to hit “send” on today’s issue. Watch this space, folks.

Short-term pains, long-term gains

Morocco’s USD multi-bn infrastructure investment push for the 2030 World Cup is a calculated fiscal gamble. With planned investments estimated at 12% of Morocco’s 2024 GDP, the country is betting that a state-led, capex-intensive push will do good things for its long-term growth despite taking a hit on public debt levels and the risk that private-sector investment gets crowded out, according to a recent IMF report (pdf).

By 2030, the IMF estimates the football-fuelled investment push will leave Morocco's real economy 2% larger than it would have been without it — rising to c. 3% larger after 2031, as productivity gains from the new infrastructure kick in. Better connectivity will lower business costs and strengthen Morocco’s position as a regional trade hub.

Where’s the investment coming from? Rail (50% of the total investment), airport expansions (20%), construction and stadium upgrades (18.3%), roads (6.5%), and tourism (4.2%).

Who’s in the driver’s seat: The state is taking on most of the responsibility for financing and implementation, with 62% of the financing to be led by state-owned enterprises (SOEs). Regional governments will pitch in 27%, and the central government will contribute with the remaining 11%.

And this domestic-led strategy is also trickling down the line, with the government increasingly favoring the domestic private sector over foreign players for execution contracts.

But this won’t come without its own price. Public spending is on track to rise by 7-8% of GDP, peaking in 2030. The buildout is also set to heavily rely on imported inputs, widening the trade deficit, raising depreciation pressures on the MAD, and muting the immediate multiplier effect on the domestic economy in the short-term.

The downside risk for the private sector: Debt could be harder to obtain — and more expensive. Higher public borrowing raises sovereign risk premiums, helping drive real corporate interest rates upward during the construction phase. And ask any Saudi business what a massive state-backed infrastructure buildout means to a private sector actor looking to access bank financing. The words you’re looking for, friends, are “crowing out.” Still, the report sees private-sector investment on the rebound starting in 2031.

Baseline assumptions: The report’s baseline scenario assumes that public spending efficiency (average productivity gains from a given unit of investment) will be similar to the country’s current performance. The report also assumes the push will be financed by a mix of domestic and concessional debt, budget reallocations, cash-in-hand, and sovereign bonds.

Eleventh hour

Iran and the US reached an agreement overnight to a two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan, just hours before US President Donald Trump’s deadline for Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or else a “whole civilization will die.”

The agreement: Washington will “suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks” if Tehran reopens the Strait of Hormuz, US President Donald Trump said. Tehran responded by saying it would halt its attacks across the Gulf if the US and Israel stop their attacks. The Islamic Republic also said it would open the Strait of Hormuz, allowing vessels to transit the waterway in coordination with Iranian armed forces.

The ceasefire “does not include Lebanon,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said after the agreement was announced. That statement comes as Israel expands its evacuation orders in Lebanon, issuing directives for about 40 villages in the South to evacuate earlier on Catholic Easter Monday, including in Christian-majority areas that were largely spared from earlier displacement directives. At least 16 people were killed overnight Sunday and Monday in southern Lebanon and the Bekaa, according to L’Orient-Le Jour’s tally.

What happens next? The two sides will meet on Friday to “further negotiate for a conclusive agreement to settle all disputes,” Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said. Trump said Iran presented a 10-point proposal, which he called a “workable basis on which to negotiate.”

The question is whether the ceasefire will hold: An hour after the ceasefire announcement, the Emirati Defense Ministry warned that sounds heard this morning are the result of interceptions of missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles. Qatar and Kuwait also reported a fresh round of missile attacks, while Saudi Arabia issued a security alert to residents.

Opening up a choked strait

The reopening of Hormuz comes as no loaded LNG cargo has made it through the strait since the war began — including two loaded Qatari LNG tankers that were forced to turn back after an unsuccessful attempt to pass through the strait. The only recent transit was an Oman-linked tanker that appeared to be empty, highlighting that flows remain effectively stalled despite limited vessel movement.

And even for the lucky few who received select exemptions, confidence is shaky. Asian crude buyers are not jumping in line to secure shipments from Iraq, despite reports that the country has opened crude lift orders for traders and refiners shortly after Iran said its vessels would be exempt from Hormuz restrictions. Iraq typically sells on a free-on-board (FOB) basis, meaning buyers are responsible for the logistics and risk once the crude is loaded at origin. With the high risk associated with FOBs, Asian buyers are now probing for clarity on conditions — including whether Iraq would step in with its own fleet to de-risk shipments.

A new frontier?

Watch this space if the ceasefire fails: A drone from Iran targeted a Du building in Fujairah on Monday, resulting in a “minor incident” with no injuries reported, state news agency Wam reports. “They are now targeting other industries and other infrastructure, which qualifies as a slight escalation,” MENA Economist Hamzeh Al Gaood told EnterpriseAM.

This marks the first time Iran targeted state-owned telecom infrastructure in the UAE, though it did previously target Amazon Web Services data centers in the UAE and Bahrain. Du is responsible for a massive chunk of the UAE’s digital and telecom infrastructure.

This development adds to the risk premium that had already existed since the start of the war. “It’s economic pain, and it’s increasing the level of threat and risk on the GCC,” Al Gaood added, explaining that there will be a risk premium attached to telecom infrastructure associated with the fact that investments might be needed to repair facilities.

Plus: Iran is still targeting industrial sites. An office building belonging to tech firm Raneen Systems in the Industrial City of Abu Dhabi (ICAD) in Mussafah was also hit yesterday, resulting in one moderate injury, Wam reported separately.

A tale of two tourism trajectories

Tourist arrivals in Morocco rose 18% in March, despite a region-wide tourism slowdown that grounded occupancy rates in the GCC and beyond. The March surge drove an overall 7% y-o-y rise in 1Q arrivals to 4.3 mn, with the country’s tourism ministry attributing the rise to better flight connectivity and accommodation and entertainment offerings, as well as diversified source markets.

Improved returns: Tourism receipts reached USD 2.3 bn in by the end of February, marking a 22.2% y-o-y improvement and suggesting better monetization per visitor.

Data point: Morocco was the most visited country in Africa last year, attracting 19.8 mn ⁠tourists. The North African kingdom is also targeting 26 mn tourists by 2030, supported by long-term infrastructure upgrades ahead of co-hosting the 2030 FIFA World Cup.

Now put that in contrast with Egypt’s performance: Bookings in Egypt are down 20% since the outbreak of the war, bringing the country’s tourism rebound to a screeching halt after a record-breaking 2025. The drop reflects Egypt’s tourism sector’s exposure to the shock that’s only made worse by its reliance on tourists from the GCC and East Asia. This was in part due to flight disruptions rather than just a falling appetite for the country, which becomes clear when you look at the steady figures of arrivals for tourists incoming from Europe and the US, Egyptian Tourism Federation member Hossam Hazaa told us.

Others aren’t faring much better: March bookings in Jordan fell 90% y-o-y overall and as much as 100% in the country’s major tourist attraction, the ancient city of Petra.

UAE IPOs are officially in ‘wait-and-see’ mode

The UAE’s IPO pipeline has officially slipped into wait-and-see mode, with execution windows for 1H 2026 effectively closed as the regional conflict rattles market sentiment, EnterpriseAM UAE reports.

Big-ticket listings are being pushed to late Q3 or Q4, including offerings by Etihad Airways and Dubai Holding’s property units, while Emirates Global Aluminium grapples with damaged infrastructure after an Iranian attack. Despite foreign investors pulling AED 1.06 bn from both the ADX and DFM in March, issuers look more likely to kick to a different window than they are to go offshore, suggesting that domestic liquidity (including the omnipresent promise of sovereign capital…) is the ultimate backstop.

Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala Capital blew past its initial target to raise USD 900 mn for its third Brazil fund, drawing backing from international pension funds and private investors alongside a USD 250 mn anchor from its parent, the Financial Times reports. A third of the capital has already been deployed into distressed Brazilian assets. The fund is showing no sign of backing away from its overseas strategy despite some pundits suggesting that it might pivot inward to plug domestic infrastructure risks amid ongoing attacks from Iran.

Saudi retail giant BinDawood’s acquisition spree continues: BinDawood Holding bought a 51% stake in food manufacturer Vaza for SAR 217.9 mn, according to a Tadawul disclosure. The retail giant is using the deal to push into premium confectionery and specialty foods. It’s the latest in a string of acquisitions — including Zahrat Al Rawdah ; a majority stake in toy distributor Toy Triangle; and a 51% stake in Dubai-based Wonder Bakery — as BinDawood builds out well beyond its grocery roots.

Aramco Ventures backed US-based industrial separations player Via Separations in aUSD 36 mn funding round to scale its modular filtration platform — currently applied to pulp and paper — into the refining and chemicals sectors. It’s a targeted play by the Saudi energy giant to acquire technologies it needs to drive efficiency and cut emissions across its own industrial assets.

Egyptian fintech Lucky secured USD 23 mn in a series ‘B’ mix of equity and debt, drawing capital from Suez Canal Bank and OneStop alongside existing backers Disruptech Ventures and Nclude, per a statement (pdf). Lucky will use the injection to grow its credit products, expand across North Africa, and build the regulatory and technical backend for a transition into neo-banking.

ALSO WORTH KNOWING TODAY-

Egypt is temporarily listing five state-owned firms on the EGX today, opening a six-month window for the entities to get their paperwork and finances in order before active trading begins. The Madbouly government is looking to restart its privatization push — who is interested in recycled state-owned enterprises in the absence of a significant marketing effort is very much an open question.

Al Rajhi Capital locked down SAR 2.5 bn in facility agreements from Al Rajhi Bank and Saudi Awwal to refinance debt and fund future acquisitions, per a Tadawul disclosure. Al Rajhi Bank committed SAR 1.75 bn of the total.

Cairo-born Ades Holdinginked a contract with Syrian Petroleum to maintain and develop gas fields in Syria. The agreement targets a 25% production increase within six months, rising to 50% by year’s end. The Syrian Petroleum Company recently restarted production at fields in north-eastern Syria relinquished after years of Kurdish control, but more than a decade of military and economic turmoil has left the fields and related infrastructure — including pipelines — severely degraded, with industry insiders saying it would take years to bring them back to full capacity.

IBF & Company finalized its acquisition of a stake in industrial storage manufacturer Techno Metal in a deal valuing the target at roughly EGP 500 mn (USD 9.1 mn) — a push deeper into logistics on the heels of its December acquisition of a 50% stake in cross-border trade platform Diatom CBT.

Saudi luxury flash-sale platform Maison Safqa closed a USD 620k pre-seed round anchored by 500 Global and the founder of European flash-seller Ventes Exclusives. The capital will fund a doubling of its brand portfolio to 100 and the launch of offline sales events in Riyadh and Jeddah.

Saudi Arabia’s push to privatize its aviation infrastructure drew 89 bidders — 55 local and 34 international — for the Prince Naif bin Abdulaziz International Airport development phase, per a statement. Matarat Holding and the National Center for Privatization & PPP are moving forward with a 30-year build-transfer-operate concession after calling for expressions of interest earlier this year.

Market Snapshot

Tadawul -1.6% • ADX -0.3% • DFM -0.8% • EGX30 -0.8%

Brent USD 94.33 / bbl • Gold USD 4,803.50 / oz • USD / SAR 3.75 • USD / EGP 54.69

Brace for impact

GCC banks are bracing for a possible 25% y-o-y rise in loan loss provisions in the next two years to hit USD 11.6 bn in 2027 as regional conflict widens their risk exposure to defaults, according to a report from S&P’s Visible Alpha seen by EnterpriseAM.

The forecast is primarily driven by UAE banks’ exposure to the real estate debt, with many real estate issuances falling into distress earlier in March before some corrected over widening yield spreads, as we previously reported. The report also pointed to risks of declining rents, which could affect loan repayments.

Who’s most exposed? In the UAE it’s Dubai Islamic Bank and the First Abu Dhabi Bank that have the biggest risk exposure to real estate, with almost a quarter of each of their portfolios going to developers, the report says. Midsized developers and contractors “are more vulnerable to payment delays and rising funding and construction costs,” fueling a potential rise in nonperforming loans.

Background: GCC banks are expected to slash dividends by up to 50% this year to protect

their liquidity positions as they navigate the fallout of the regional conflict.

Big UAE players roll out support packages

More breathing room for UAE’s SMEs

Major Emirati players, from banks to industrial giants, are introducing new programs designed to give SMEs some breathing room during the war. Emirates NBD launched a new business support package, waiving and reducing charges for a range of services, like deferred loans and international courier deliveries, letters of credit and guarantees, and banknote management. Dubai South also rolled out a rent relief package to help businesses steady at its Business Park, offering incentives for contract renewals, ranging from rent-free periods and deferred payments to waived penalties, in addition to a freeze on lease rates for eligible tenants.

These two relief programs are only the latest among several aimed at keeping smaller businesses afloat. Just last week, Dubai-based spend platform Qashio rolled out a AED 10 mn support program with Dubai Chambers, while authorities moved in late March with an AED 1 bn package to cushion private-sector strain linked to the regional conflict.

Tourism is also in focus in the UAE, with a dedicated support package in the pipeline, Economy and Tourism Minister Abdulla Bin Touq Al Marri told Dubai Eye in a podcast. He added that the sector has remained supported through the recent disruption, including assistance for more than 10k tourists, ensuring accommodation, meals, and safe return. The AED 1 bn Dubai package also included measures specific to the sector.

Expanding footprint

GKSD, part of top Italian hospitals group Gruppo San Donato, is moving into Saudi Arabia and Egypt, Managing Director Masroor Haq said. In the Kingdom, it has partnered with a private firm to build an integrated hospital and smart clinics, with investments topping USD 200 mn. The company is targeting advanced healthcare services, including diagnostics, AI, robotic surgery, and specialized treatments.

GCC can stand up to the pounding, Georgieva says

Watch this space

#1- The GCC can withstand war-related shocks, IMF chief says. Strong institutions and economic diversification will allow Gulf economies to absorb shocks from the US-Iran war, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva told Asharq Business. That being said, the global lender will “somewhat” lower its growth forecast for GCC nations, she added. Global growth, too, will see a downward revision.

Watch this space: The regional war and its economic impact is expected to dominate discussions among policymakers during the IMF and World Bank’s annual spring meetings, which will kick off next Monday, 13 April.

#2- Committed…ish? Asia’s largest low-cost carrier (LCC) Air Asia is still planning to make the June launch date for its Bahrain hub, the CEO of the Malaysia-based carrier Bo Bingham said in a presser on Monday. But that could change if the war drags on, with Bingham suggesting the airline is open to exploring other locations to back its Kuala Lumpur-London routes. “Anything is possible,” he said.

Why it matters: Air Asia’s Bahrain hub plan is a win-win for both the country and the carrier. For Air Asia, it would help it tap into the booming budget flying market in the region, especially for Gulf-Asia and Europe-Asia itineraries. Meanwhile, Bahrain has lagged behind its peers in the region in LCC growth — and Air Asia’s hub could help it seize on unrealized growth potential.

It would be good news for regional LCC champions including Flydubai and Air Arabia if Air Asia were to scrap its Bahrain plans in the face of the war. Their business models are backed primarily by Asia connections, making them Air Asia’s main competitors.

REMEMBER- The war is fundamentally changing the math for LCCs, whose business model is the most sensitive to price shocks like the war-driven surge in jet fuel rates, Sindy Foster, principal managing partner at Avaero Capital Partners, previously told us. Still, Air Asia recently added a 20% fuel surcharge and hiked its ticket prices by 31-40%.

#3- Algeria will head to the polls to vote in a new parliament on 2 July, according to a presidential decree. Ahead of the elections, the government will kick off an “exceptional revision” of voting lists next week, the decree said. The country’s parliament is currently dominated by the government-aligned National Democratic Rally (RND) and the National Liberation Front (FLN).

Sign of the times

More security pacts with Kyiv: Syria and Ukraine agreed to increase security cooperation between the two countries, as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky continues his wartime tour of the Middle East.

Why it matters: The agreement, which follows defense cooperation frameworks Ukraine signed with Saudi Arabia and Qatar last month, is a signal that Syria is opening its door to more allies than just Russia. The cooperation with Ukraine also gives Syria a path to food security and, possibly, the modernization of its military, considering Ukraine’s position as a major grain exporter and its defense expertise.

CALENDAR

April 2026

9 Apr — Martyrs’ Day (public holiday, markets closed). Tunisia

9 Apr — Liberation Day (public holiday, markets closed). Iraq

13 Apr — IMF / World Bank spring meetings begin (through 18 Apr). Washington (virtual)

14 Apr — QNB 1Q 2026 earnings guidance. Qatar

15 Apr — 2Q IPO listing window opens. Region-wide

25 Apr — Sinai Liberation Day (public holiday, markets closed). Egypt

28-29 Apr — US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting.

28 Apr-1 May — Syria HiTech International ICT Exhibition. Damascus, Syria

May 2026

12 May — Qatar Economic Forum (through 14 May). Qatar

21 May — Central Bank of Egypt monetary policy decision. Egypt

25 May — Independence Day (public holiday, markets closed). Jordan

27-30 May — Eid Al Adha (public holiday, markets closed). Region-wide

28 May — Saudi Aramco ex-dividend date. Saudi Arabia

June 2026

7 June — OPEC+ ministerial meeting. Vienna/Virtual

9 June — King Abdullah II Accession Day (public holiday, markets closed). Jordan

10–14 June — Syria Buildex International Construction Exhibition. Syria

16-17 June — US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting.

July 2026

2 July — Parliament elections. Algeria

5 July — Independence Day (public holiday, markets closed). Algeria

9 July — Central Bank of Egypt monetary policy decision. Egypt

14 July — Republic Day (public holiday, markets closed). Iraq

23 July — Revolution Day (public holiday, markets closed). Egypt

25 July — Republic Day (public holiday, markets closed). Tunisia

28-29 July — US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting.

30 July — Throne Day (public holiday, markets closed). Morocco

August 2026

13 Aug — Women’s National Day. Tunisia

20 Aug — Revolution of the King and the People Day (public holiday, markets closed). Morocco

20 Aug — Central Bank of Egypt monetary policy decision. Egypt

21 Aug — Youth Day (public holiday, markets closed). Morocco

25 Aug — Prophet’s Birthday (public holiday, markets closed) — TBD. Region-wide

31 Aug-3 Sep — LEAP technology conference. Saudi Arabia

September 2026

7-9 Sep — AIM Congress. UAE

15-16 Sep — US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting.

15 Sep — IMF’s eighth review of Egypt’s USD 8 bn EFF arrangement. Egypt

16-17 Sep — Middle East Banking Innovation Summit. UAE

23 Sep — National Day (public holiday, markets closed). Saudi Arabia

24 Sep — Central Bank of Egypt monetary policy decision. Egypt

30 Sep-3 Oct — Cityscape Egypt 2026. Egypt

October 2026

3 Oct — National Day (public holiday, markets closed). Iraq

6 Oct — Armed Forces Day (public holiday, markets closed). Egypt

15 Oct — GCC Made in the Gulf Forum + Exhibition. TBD

25 Oct — Liberation Day (public holiday, markets closed). Libya

25-27 Oct — World Investment Forum 2026. Qatar

26-29 Oct — Future Investment Initiative. Saudi Arabia

27-28 Oct — US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting.

29 Oct — Central Bank of Egypt monetary policy decision. Egypt

November 2026

1 Nov — Revolution Anniversary (public holiday, markets closed). Algeria

2 Nov — Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition + Conference (ADIPEC) opens (through 5 Nov). UAE

6 Nov — Green March Anniversary (public holiday, markets closed). Morocco

16 Nov — Cityscape Global begins (through 19 Nov). Saudi Arabia

December 2026

17 Dec — Central Bank of Egypt monetary policy decision. Egypt

Sections

About

Privacy & Support

Get EnterpriseAM daily

Ceasefire?

An independent publication supported by

Today at a glance

US, Iran signal they’re putting down their weapons for two weeks

Related

Short-term pains, long-term gains

Related

Eleventh hour

Related

A new frontier?

Related

A tale of two tourism trajectories

Related

UAE IPOs are officially in ‘wait-and-see’ mode

Related

Brace for impact

Related

Big UAE players roll out support packages

Related

GCC can stand up to the pounding, Georgieva says

Related

CALENDAR

Related

About

Privacy & Support

My EnterpriseAM

Sign in

Check your email! We've sent you a magic link to sign in.