Morocco has its eye on the long game with a massive investment drive ahead of 2030 World Cup

Morocco’s USD multi-bn infrastructure investment push for the 2030 World Cup is a calculated fiscal gamble. With planned investments estimated at 12% of Morocco’s 2024 GDP, the country is betting that a state-led, capex-intensive push will do good things for its long-term growth despite taking a hit on public debt levels and the risk that private-sector investment gets crowded out, according to a recent IMF report (pdf).

By 2030, the IMF estimates the football-fuelled investment push will leave Morocco's real economy 2% larger than it would have been without it — rising to c. 3% larger after 2031, as productivity gains from the new infrastructure kick in. Better connectivity will lower business costs and strengthen Morocco’s position as a regional trade hub.

Where’s the investment coming from? Rail (50% of the total investment), airport expansions (20%), construction and stadium upgrades (18.3%), roads (6.5%), and tourism (4.2%).

Who’s in the driver’s seat: The state is taking on most of the responsibility for financing and implementation, with 62% of the financing to be led by state-owned enterprises (SOEs). Regional governments will pitch in 27%, and the central government will contribute with the remaining 11%.

And this domestic-led strategy is also trickling down the line, with the government increasingly favoring the domestic private sector over foreign players for execution contracts.

But this won’t come without its own price. Public spending is on track to rise by 7-8% of GDP, peaking in 2030. The buildout is also set to heavily rely on imported inputs, widening the trade deficit, raising depreciation pressures on the MAD, and muting the immediate multiplier effect on the domestic economy in the short-term.

The downside risk for the private sector: Debt could be harder to obtain — and more expensive. Higher public borrowing raises sovereign risk premiums, helping drive real corporate interest rates upward during the construction phase. And ask any Saudi business what a massive state-backed infrastructure buildout means to a private sector actor looking to access bank financing. The words you’re looking for, friends, are “crowing out.” Still, the report sees private-sector investment on the rebound starting in 2031.

Baseline assumptions: The report’s baseline scenario assumes that public spending efficiency (average productivity gains from a given unit of investment) will be similar to the country’s current performance. The report also assumes the push will be financed by a mix of domestic and concessional debt, budget reallocations, cash-in-hand, and sovereign bonds.