GCC project awards hold steady at USD 204 bn for 9M, even as 3Q collapses

Contract awards in the GCC held steady in 9M 2026, even as 3Q figures showed sharp y-o-y and q-o-q declines, according to Kamco’s GCC Projects Market Update (pdf) estimate. The Gulf awarded contracts worth some USD 204 bn during the period, up slightly from USD 199 bn — a surprising feat given the impact of the war on the region’s economic growth this year.

One explanation for the surprising headline figure could be the lag effect. 3Q, for example, saw contract awards fall 37.2% y-o-y to USD 47.4 bn — the lowest quarterly figure since Kamco began its records some two years ago — as the war’s hit to the region’s energy exports and infrastructure caught up with the pipeline of planned work.

Every GCC country recorded a double-digit y-o-y fall in 3Q, but it’s not all gloomy everywhere. The war is sorting the region’s project markets by who still has the fiscal and corporate muscle to keep awarding — and the composition of what each government is still signing tells you most of what you need to know about where capex is going next.

Saudi Arabia stayed the Gulf’s biggest projects market at USD 24.4 bn in 3Q, down from USD 33.2 bn a year earlier, with 9M awards at USD 73.4 bn versus USD 79.5 bn. Still, construction grew 7.6% y-o-y to USD 9.2 bn, and gas jumped 80.1% to USD 6.9 bn, while oil collapsed to USD 460 mn from USD 3.8 bn, and power fell 83.4% to USD 1.6 bn. Aramco is the shock absorber: the national champion has earmarked USD 50-55 bn for 2026 investment, 65-70% of it in oil and gas, and has already spent USD 12.3 bn on upstream contracts this year, the largest chunk on the Dorra gas field.

The UAE gained share even as it fell. Awards were down 25.8% y-o-y to USD 15.6 bn, but the Emirates’ share of the GCC total rose to 33% from 27.9% as other markets’ award rates fell faster, Kamco said. Adnoc led the pack on awards in 3Q, accounting for nearly 40% of UAE awards at USD 6.2 bn, led by a USD 1 bn contract on the Umm Shaif gas and surface pressure boosting project as part of USD 6.2 bn committed by Adnoc and its foreign partners. Unlike Saudi, construction went the other way, collapsing 67% y-o-y to USD 5 bn from USD 15.1 bn. The real-estate build-out that drove UAE awards through 2024 and 2025 is no longer carrying the market; hydrocarbon infrastructure did.

Qatar is a one-sector story. Awards fell 62.6% y-o-y to USD 5.2 bn, with four of eight sectors — chemicals, gas, industrial, and power — showing zero in 3Q. Oil alone accounted for USD 5 bn, followed by just USD 137 mn in construction. The q-o-q number was more encouraging in 3Q, rebounding via a 76.1% growth from 2Q.

Kuwait and Oman are the markets without a cushion. Kuwait’s awards fell 57.3% to USD 1.9 bn, more than half of it is concentrated in two projects: A USD 445 mn Subiya power and desalination gas-turbines contract and a USD 379 mn gas separation facility in North Kuwait. Oman nearly disappeared, with awards down 96.6% y-o-y to USD 76 mn.