The UAE, Oman, and Qatar are heading for the top 10 of global per-capita solar rankings as MENA’s renewables capacity set to double

The UAE, Oman, and Qatar will sit among the world’s top 10 countries in per-capita solar power generation by 2031, with the UAE overtaking Australia to claim the global top spot at more than 4k kWh per person, the International Energy Agency said in its recently released Renewables 2026 report. Oman will rank third globally and Qatar fifth, pushing in alongside Bulgaria, Greece, Austria, and Spain as a new tier of per-capita solar leaders.

The larger picture: The region’s installed renewables capacity is on track to more than double to nearly 200 GW by 2031 — and most of that will come from solar. The IEA expects the region to add 122 GW of new capacity over 2026-2031, raising renewables’ share of total electricity generation from 5% to 15%. Solar is expected to account for 80% of this added capacity — the highest of any region globally.

The growth, however, will be tightly concentrated in one market: Saudi Arabia. The Kingdom alone is expected to account to half of the regional increase at 60 GW. The UAE will come at a distant second with 13 GW of planned new capacity, followed by Egypt at 12 GW.

Egypt records the largest upward revision in the region, reflecting an acceleration plan driven by the energy-cost shock from the Middle East conflict. The government has reported that its monthly gas import bill nearly tripled from USD 560 mn to USD 1.65 bn after the fighting began, prompting Cairo to pull forward its 45% renewable electricity target from 2035 to 2028. The reforms underpinning the shift include a new corporate PPA framework, the reintroduction of competitive wind and solar auctions after a decade-long hiatus, and a growing pipeline of bilateral wind, solar and storage projects, the IEA said.

The UAE and Morocco were also revised up. The UAE is expanding the Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park from 5 GW to more than 7 GW and slightly raised its clean energy target to 35% by 2031 in January, up from 32% by 2030. And Morocco is now forecast to add 5 GW of new capacity by 2031, up from 1.5 GW — an upward revision driven by a growing corporate PPA pipeline and faster-than-expected progress at state-owned miner OCP on more than 2 GW of renewable capacity in service of a corporate 2040 net zero target.

Syria, starting from a lower base, also gets a star: The country now has more than 2 GW of renewables capacity, after adding some 1.5 GW from 2022 to 2026. The rise was driven by unreliable grid supply and high fuel costs, which led to a surge of distributed solar for residential and off-grid use as an alternative.

Two streams of logic are driving the growth forecast. Hydrocarbon producers are deploying renewables to free up oil and gas for export — Saudi’s Liquid Displacement Program targets 1 mn bbl / d of freed-up crude — which accounts for roughly two-thirds of forecast growth, led by Saudi Arabia and Oman. The remaining third comes from import-dependent power systems hedging against gas price volatility: Egypt and Tunisia on imported gas, Morocco on coal and gas, Iraq on Iranian gas, and the UAE.

Uh, Enterprise, is the UAE really an energy importer? Kinda. The UAE buys more gas than it ships out for various reasons. One of these is straightforward arbitrage: Cheap Qatari pipeline gas via Dolphin feeds the domestic grid, while Das Island exports high-value LNG to premium Asian buyers under long-term contracts. A considerable chunk of UAE’s gas production is also reinjected into oil wells to boost crude recovery. That math, however, flips in 2030 as Adnoc’s 9.6 mtpa Ruwais LNG project begins production by 2028.

Still, some markets are facing headwinds: Saudi Arabia’s own forecast was revised downwards on slow project progress — a counterintuitive note for the regional growth leader. Iran and Iraq were revised down because a large share of pipeline projects have yet to reach final investment decision, while Oman’s forecast was scaled back as its hydrogen economy plans stalled: two projects awarded in earlier hydrogen rounds were cancelled for lack of offtakers; others are stuck pre-FID; and the renewable electricity capacity that would have powered them drops out of the forecast with them.

The biggest near-term risk is the war’s wobbly supply chain. Combined Chinese solar PV module imports to Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, Jordan, Iran and Lebanon fell 61% year-on-year in the first nine months (9m) of 2026, the IEA reports, citing disruption from the Strait of Hormuz closure. One developer told the agency that several financial closes and project-agreement signings could be delayed by six to 12 months.

THE ASSUMPTIONS- The 200 GW figure is based on a reading that accounts for current policies and the current pipeline. It does not assume faster permitting, grid build-out, or financing than what’s already underway. All of that upside sits in the accelerated case.

Capacity additions between 2026 and 2031 could be almost 30% higher in the IEA’s upside case — around 158 GW instead of 122 GW, taking total installed capacity to nearly 233 GW by 2031 — if grid, regulatory and financing constraints are addressed.