Business takes the lead in recast Washington-Baghdad ties

Iraq and the US are rebuilding their relationship around business ties: Iraqi Prime Minister Ali Al Zaidi’s visit to Washington this week produced a package of commercial agreements between American companies and both the Iraqi government and private sector. That package is set to be unveiled later today at a US Chamber of Commerce summit, “where organizers plan to announce USD 60 bn in commercial agreements,” Semafor reports.

From boots on the ground to balance sheets: US President Donald Trump touted his “tremendous chemistry” with Al Zaidi and Iraq’s “tremendous potential because of their oil,” signaling the US no longer needs a meaningful military footprint in the country after a 23-year entanglement. The relationship should now run on trade, Trump signaled, saying there will be “massive” oil agreements within the next two weeks.

The substance underneath the “chemistry” is a race to give Iraqi crude an exit that doesn’t depend on the Strait of Hormuz. The waterway was shut for much of the Iran war, and Iraq is still paying for that closure. As the second-largest Opec producer before the war began in February, Baghdad has slashed output by 60% since then, squeezing state finances.

The centerpiece to the solution is the Kirkuk-Baniyas pipeline, which has been mostly idle since 2003. Washington is now backing its revival, which would reconnect northern Iraqi fields to Syria’s Mediterranean coast. US special envoy Tom Barrack has been in Baghdad working the file with Al Zaidi, building on an MoU with LA-based TI Capital. US officials expect American firms to help drive a reconstruction that could run into the bns. Syria’s Baniyas port — home to the country’s biggest refinery — is the early front-runner to take the crude. Chevron, TotalEnergies, TI Capital, and Qatar's UCC Holding have all been in the room on expanding Syria’s role as an export hub.

SOUND SMART- This plan runs through Damascus, and the door there is open. Syrian President Ahmad Al Sharaa was warmly received by Trump on the sidelines of this month’s NATO summit, and Washington has been peeling back sanctions — enough to bring Chevron, Total, and ConocoPhillips to the table.