Oman, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE rethink US ties as Iran war fallout reshapes the Gulf

It’s a quiet morning in the Strait of Hormuz: Ships continue to move and Donald Trump has told aides he’d rather keep talking than restart the war if talks stall.

The bigger issue in our minds this morning is less “will it hold” and more “what does it all mean?” Sure, there’s a chance the shooting war resumes. But four months on, we’re seeing signs that Oman, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE are each engaged in what John Foster Dulles would have called an “agonizing reappraisal” of their relations with the United States.

Oman has clearly broken ranks: Muscat and Tehran are pressing ahead with a plan to charge ships for passage through Hormuz — despite loud US objections, the New York Times reports. Oman has handed Washington and European capitals a formal proposal modeled on the Straits of Malacca and Singapore, where a private Japanese foundation collects voluntary contributions for safe navigation. Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi is being careful to call these “service fees,” not transit tolls, but Tehran insists the fees are (a) mandatory and (b) going into effect whether Oman joins it or not. Needless to say, Europe and much of the rest of the world aren’t down with the idea of a toll. (Trump suggested in May that he would bomb Oman if they didn’t “behave.”)

The bottom line, in a couple of sentences: “Call it voluntary if you like — Hormuz was completely open before this war, and now it isn’t,” the Royal United Services Institute’s H.A. Hellyer told the NYT. “That is not Oman's doing… All this hassle is part of Washington’s bill for starting an ill-advised war.”

MEANWHILE- The WSJ writes that the war has significantly frayed ties between Washington and Riyadh. The fallout we can all see: Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s Gulf tour last week pointedly skipped Riyadh and Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman turned down his G7 invitation while the leaders of the UAE, Qatar, and Egypt showed up. The Journal says the White House is now mulling whether to redeploy troops in Saudi to Israel and Jordan — and Riyadh has opened its own line to Tehran, brokered by Pakistan.

AND- The UAE doubled down on security ties with Washington and Israel, further widening the rift between MbS and UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed.

What’s next: US “envoys” Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were in Doha this week for indirect talks with Iran — no face-to-face, Qatari officials stressed — with the release of USD bns worth of frozen Iranian assets and the future of the strait still on the line. Whatever happens with those talks, we’re in the early days of a long (and likely not-so-quiet) rearrangement of relations in the GCC.