Why Morocco is cautious on a China FTA despite Beijing’s push for a permanent pact

Laying the groundwork for free trade agreement? Morocco and China signed three customs agreements on the sidelines of the World Customs Organization’s annual session in Brussels, in what could be viewed as a preparatory groundwork for a trade agreement that Beijing has already formally requested.

The agreements cover fraud, clearance, and port modernization. The first creates a legal framework for joint action against customs fraud, under-invoicing, and false declarations. The second gives mutual recognition to Morocco’s Authorized Economic Operator (AEO) program and its Chinese equivalent — meaning faster clearance and fewer inspections for businesses trading between the two countries. The third pairs the Port of Casablanca directly with China’s Port of Ningbo — the world’s busiest cargo port by tonnage — on modernization, risk management, and staff training, Morocco World News reports.

The agreements come amid a carefully crafted Chinese push across Africa. In May, Beijing’s zero-tariff policy for 53 African nations, including Morocco, took effect, eliminating import duties on Moroccan goods entering China. The measure is unilateral and temporary, running until 2028, and is meant to fast-track bilateral FTA pacts across the continent.

And Morocco appears high on Beijing’s priority list. China has formally asked Rabat to sign a bilateral FTA that would make Morocco’s zero-tariff access permanent, while requiring it to reciprocate. Morocco’s industry minister, Ryad Mezzour, told Bloomberg the proposal is “under reflection,” with an impact assessment underway, but no formal negotiations started.

Rabat is cautious. Bilateral trade between the two nations is heavily lopsided in China’s favor, accounting for USD 10 bn of the USD 11 bn in two-way trade they exchanged. Consumers would benefit from lower tariffs on Chinese goods, but Morocco needs to make sure that there’s a market on the other side worth opening up to. Otherwise, it’s starting down a widening trade deficit as well as pressure on local investors and its coveted, widening industrial base.

The most important question that Morocco needs to answer is what an FTA with China could do its EU access. Chinese EV and battery manufacturers are already building rapidly in Morocco (look at Gotion High Tech's gigafactory near Kenitra, BTR New Material's anode plant in Tangier, and the 34 Chinese firms now signed on at the Mohammed VI Tanger Tech City).

The buildout is already making Europe anxious, with the EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič flagging Chinese production in North Africa as a concern for European industry. With Europe being Morocco’s largest trading partner (some EUR 25.5 bn of Moroccan products entered the EU last year), Morocco needs to avoid the EU’s trade defense mechanisms.

What’s next: The zero-tariff window runs until April 2028, giving Rabat time, but also a deadline. Mezzour has conditioned any progress on consultations with industry and an assessment of implications for Morocco’s existing trade agreements with the EU, US, and Turkey.