Maybe, finally?

Good morning, friends. For the first time in a long while we’re writing with the wind in our backs: The framework that could end America and Israel’s war with Iran is on paper.

The headline number is USD 300 bn. That’s the private development fund at the heart of the 14-point draft the two sides are set to sign Friday, earmarked for energy, logistics, manufacturing, and transport in Iran. More than half of it is already committed, sources tell Reuters — which tells you everything about how much capital has been idling on the sidelines waiting for the all-clear. The US lifts sanctions and releases frozen assets; Tehran reiterates it will never build a bomb, with the thorny questions on enriched material punted to a final agreement due within 60 days.

Markets barely waited for the ink to dry. Oil is sliding on expectations that Hormuz traffic returns to pre-war levels within 30 days of signing — helped along by reports the GCC has quietly been pushing more crude through the strait than anyone realized. Goldman has already taken the knife to its forecast, rate-hike expectations are dropping ahead of the Fed, and Qatar says it can restart most of its LNG capacity faster than the doomsayers predicted.

Before we pop the bubbly: Plenty of Wall Street analysts still aren’t sure this is for real, and the fine print — who pays whom, and whether Lebanon is part of the package, as Iran insists and Israel denies — is exactly where these things tend to come apart. Stop us if you’ve heard this song before.

Your legally mandated AI aside this morning: Anthropic, the company behind Claude, just pulled the plug on two of its models — Fable 5 and Mythos 5 — on orders from the US government, which wants them blocked from every foreign national on the planet. The reason? Washington reportedly believes there’s a jailbreak that lets Fable 5 sniff out software vulnerabilities. –Salma