Hormuz faces slow recovery as shippers weigh ceasefire risks and mine-clearing delays

Even when the Strait of Hormuz completely reopens, traffic isn’t expected to fully return to normalcy immediately, analysts warn, as shipping companies remain cautious about the permanency of the ceasefire and more time is needed to rebuild trust with insurance companies and bankers. Buyers have already secured alternative suppliers and shipping lanes during the closure, Karobaar Capital says, meaning normal flows could take months to resume.

The checklist before ships move: naval safety assessments, insurer guidance, and no further attacks. “Vessel scheduling adjustments and reductions in emergency surcharges would be early indicators of growing confidence,” Antonella Teodoro, senior transport consultant at MDS Transmodal, tells EnterpriseAM.

The International Maritime Organization is still assessing whether vessels can safely transit — clearing mines, managing congestion, and establishing an evacuation corridor for seafarers stuck inside the Gulf for more than 100 days.

What happens when ships return all at once? Capacity that has been absorbed into longer voyages during the disruption gets released back into the market suddenly — creating a real risk of vessel bunching, port congestion, and pressure on hinterland logistics before networks can rebalance, Teodoro tells us.

Mine-clearing could be the slowest part of the restart — and it cannot be rushed. Mine-scouring using conventional minesweepers and underwater drones could take weeks — approximately 40-50 days — keeping shipowners cautious even after a political agreement is formally in place, Reuters reports.

The damage runs deep: Hormuz infrastructure damage from the blockade is high and largely irreversible, according to Phillip Nova. Global fertilizer trade fell 90% during the closure, with 40+ ships carrying roughly 1 mn tons still stuck near the strait. When trade resumes, oil and LNG tankers get priority — fertilizer waits, a Kpler analyst told Al Arabiya.

Lessons from Bab Al Mandab: Houthi disruption during Israel’s Gaza war kept Red Sea traffic depressed long after the immediate threat subsided — and the group renewed its threat against Israeli-linked vessels last week.