Results from airlines and retailers in 1Q 2026 foreshadow what markets can expect from everyone else in 2Q

Aluminium Bahrain just posted the best quarter in its history — net income up316%y-o-y — with most of its smelters knocked offline by Iranian missiles. That paradox is the real story of the 1Q 2026 MENA+ earnings season, and it is not the one the headline numbers tell.

What we’ve seen this quarter is the echo of what had been set to be a very strong year, with the line between winners and losers being simple: distance from the war’s blast radius. The quarter carries the hit from a single month of fighting, a month already softened by Ramadan and closed-out with the Strait of Hormuz still shut.

Aramco’s net income rose 25% to USD 32.5 bn because its East-West pipeline moved more than 7 mn bpd around the strait. AD Ports turned in a 41% rise in net income 41% by rerouting cargo through Fujairah and Khorfakkan. Emaar climbed 38% on Dubai property the war never touched, and Emsteel surged 246% selling 80% of its output at home.

Further out, the insulation was near-total: EGX-listed Orascom Construction more than doubled net income to USD 53.4 mn thanks to a backlog of data centers and aviation work in the United States worth USD 2.9 bn and growing. Cairo-based food giant Edita and payments unicorn Fawry rode Egyptian domestic demand to healthy bottom-line results.

Airlines and retailers are the leading indicator for what we can expect to see in many companies’ 2Q results. The spiraling price of jet fuel, airspace closures, and rerouting sent Flynas net income down 20.3% and Air Arabia off by about a fifth, while Jazeera Airways tipped into a net loss after nearly clearing it last quarter. Only Emirates, which does not report quarterly, held up. Lulu Retail fell 32.8% as discretionary spending collapsed in March.

The likely winners in 2Q? Anyone operating pipelines, selling domestic property, catering to local consumer demand — and anything priced in EGP rather than shipped through Hormuz.