Another week and month in the books

Good morning, friends. We’re wrapping another week (and month) and the theme still feels a lot like “holding our breath and waiting.” The US yesterday said it was looking into a potential attack on Iran to pressure it as ongoing negotiations stall, with Iran throwing back a threat of “long and painful” strikes on the US if it renewed its attacks. Meanwhile, attacks continued in the South of Lebanon despite the ceasefire, with at least 9 killed and 23 wounded yesterday alone.

Most of us are also waiting to see what the new post-UAE era of Opec will look like. As we argue in this morning’s Opinion column, below, Abu Dhabi’s defection leaves oil markets with three distinct groups with diverging priorities — and no direct organization.

The UAE’s membership in Opec isn’t the only thing Riyadh is shedding — the PIF is formalizing its plans to cut off its funding from LIV Golf after the 2026 season as it reprioritizes its financing and focuses on creating more value at home.

On a more promising note, regional debt markets look like they’re cracking open again and a handful of M&A agreements — including Emirates NBD’s move on India’s RBL Bank — are inching forward.

Feel free to reply to this email if you have questions, comments, or ideas — we read every email — and we’ll see you back here on Monday to kick the week off together. –Salma