UAE expected to ramp up oil and gas investments after Opec exit

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The UAE is widely expected to accelerate investments in oil and gas after its exit fromOpec and Opec+. Abu Dhabi is widely expected to accelerate upstream capacity, drilling, processing, storage, and export infrastructure, Arqaam Capital research head Jaap Meijer wrote on LinkedIn, with Fujairah a likely focus given the “strategic value of pipeline and export capacity outside the Strait of Hormuz.”

Capacity could climb fast, with output poised to hit 5 mn bbl / d in the near term — a longstanding 2027 target, up from 4.6-4.9 mn bbl / d today — and 6 mn bbl / d in the medium term, Meijer said. A Barclays note picked up by Reuters also said the UAE is likely to accelerate oil supply as it works its way out of the current crisis.

Lifting output to 5 mn bbl / d — from a pre-war 3.4 mn bbl / d — would add some USD 40 bn in annual gross oil revenue, supporting “fiscal revenues, government-related entity capex, domestic liquidity, and real GDP growth,” Meijer wrote.

Adnoc is already cashing in, sharply hiking its May Murban crude pricing to USD 110.75 / bbl from USD 69.45, Reuters reports, as crude benchmarks remain elevated due to the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent briefly hit USD 126 — its highest since 2022 — after reports of a prolonged US naval blockade on Iran, before cooling yesterday to USD 110.

Where do prices go from here? US President Donald Trump and Russia’s finance minister both expect the UAE’s Opec exit to push prices down by spurring more production. Goldman Sachs is more cautious, flagging medium-term upside supply risk as UAE output heads toward 3.8 mn bbl / d by this October.

German-French tankmaker KNDS is investigating a 2013 supply contract with Qatar over allegations of bribery. The “legacy transaction” so far does not show signs of “criminal misconduct” from any KNDS employees, with the investigation still underway. Allegations of misconduct to the tune of multi-mn EUR first surfaced in 2019, with Der Spiegel also recently publishing more details this year.

Monetary policy

Gulf central banks maintained their interest rates this week after the US Federal Reserve left its own rates on hold in what was Jay Powell’s final meeting as chair. Despite plenty of dissent at the Fed, the bank kept the policy rate in the 3.50%-3.75% range, citing persisting inflation and rising energy prices for the move, pointing to a “high level of uncertainty” stemming from the US-Iran war.

Sign of the times

The regional aluminum crisis did good things for Norsk Hydro’sbottom line, which came in higher than analyst expectations at NOK 7.13 bn (USD 770 mn). Norsk Hydro operates Qatalum as a joint venture with Qatar Aluminum Manufacturing Company.

Data point

7% — that’s the percentage of board seats held by women across the GCC’s 759 publicly listed companies, according to the 2026 GCC Board Gender Index report by Heriot-Watt University and Aurora50. That figure remained essentially flat y-o-y, with women’s board representation coming in at 6.9% in 2025.

The breakdown: Saudi Arabia is at the bottom of the GCC’s board gender diversity rankings, with women holding just 2.9% of the 2,014 available board seats in the Kingdom’s publicly listed companies. UAE tops the list with 15%, followed by Bahrain (10.5%), Oman (7%), Kuwait (5.6%), and Qatar (3.2%). Saudi Arabia and the UAE are the only two countries where women have secured seats across all sectors.