Saudi corporates have an uneven 1Q earnings outlook

Tadawul-listed firms are expected to turn in a mixed basket of 1Q 2026 earnings that will reflect the first signs of the regional conflict weighing on Saudi Arabia’s corporate landscape, Bahrain’s Sico Bank said in its quarterly results preview (pdf). The damage is expected to be sector-specific, rather than broad-based, group head of research Chiro Ghosh tells EnterpriseAM.

The hardest-hit sectors will be those exposed to the Strait of Hormuz — think real estate, hospitality, aviation, and manufacturing, Sico Bank says. Banks, meanwhile, are expected to show stability with heavyweights including Riyad Bank, SAB, and SNB holding the line. Al Rajhi Bank and Alinma Bank, meanwhile, appear on course to turn in single-digit net income growth.

Banks will still feel some pressure as higher financing costs put pressure on margins, with higher loan loss provisions also looking likely. Ghosh tells us that while no banks have signaled dividend cuts yet, they are now a “viable option” if volatility returns.

The picture is also looking for industrial names: Cement is looking to be off to a rough start as an unfavorable base effect is expected to result in nearly all major players nursing double-digit declines, with only Arabian Cement bucking the trend. Basic materials and mining are more split, with significant gains in some names (like Maaden) offset by drops in others.

Healthcare is caught between structural and timing headwinds — geopolitical caution late in the quarter, Ramadan seasonality, and front-loaded costs from upcoming hospital openings are all weighing on revenue growth in the sector. Still, the sector is expected to maintain a handful of outperformers, including Suliman Al Habib.

On the flipside, timing was a net positive for retail: The Ramadan effect is expected to have guided Americana to a 86% jump in net income, while BinDawood (+10%), Al Othaim (+5%), and Leejam (+5%) are all expected to post steady gains.

Transportation is a clear casualty: Aviation companies like SAL and SGS are likely to feel the impact of March airspace restrictions and flight cancellations. Airlines such as Air Arabia and Jazeera are expected to be hit the hardest.