A maturing talent war

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The expat premium pops

The 25% Saudi salary premium that has defined the UAE-Saudi recruitment competition for the last few years is now evaporating. The extra compensation once required to lure talent to the Kingdom has now narrowed to 5-10% as the market matures, Riyadh pivots toward fiscal prudence, and the UAE moves more towards contingency planning, Cooper Fitch CEO Trefor Murphy tells us.

The shift suggests that UAE-Saudi hiring competition could be approaching an equilibrium as the Kingdom scales back gigaprojects like The Line in favor of fiscal efficiency. Saudi recorded the region’s highest quarter-on-quarter growth in hiring in 4Q 2025 (+4.5%), the UAE was no slouch: Top-tier professionals drawn to the boom in finance, tourism, and trade helped hiring advance 2.5% q-o-q in the final quarter of last year, according to a Cooper Fitch report seen by EnterpriseAM.

The UAE isn’t throwing its arms wide-open to welcome people who lost jobs in Saudi as the Kingdom scales back megaprojects. Murphy notes a growing hesitancy among UAE employers to hire talent coming off “stalled” Saudi projects. He characterized the practice as “unfair,” but says it’s increasingly common in a tightening market.

Nationals to the head of the line

Both talent hubs are converging on a single, non-negotiable goal: the hiring of nationals. In Saudi, the Nitaqat Al-Mutawar Program has localized 550,000 jobs in three years. Senior roles are now designed specifically for nationals, and when expats are hired, it’s often with an explicit mandate to transition the role to a local within a fixed period, the Chartered Institute of Procurement and Supply’s (CIPS) regional director Sam Achampong told us.

No Egyptians (or Indians) need apply: Just last week, both countries expanded their nationalization programs. Saudi Arabia expanded its Saudization mandate to cover 69 job types — including HR and recruitment, PR, and administrative assistant jobs that have long attracted Indian and Egyptian talent — while the UAE extended its Nafis Emiratization program through 2040 and expanded financial support under the program for women and children.

SOUND SMART- The UAE has seen employment of nationals surge, more than 176k people in the workforce as of December 2025. The UAE workforce grew 12.4% y-o-y last year — the number of Emiratis in the workforce is up almost 400% since 2021, according to our analysis of UAE Labor Market Observatory data.

Expat talent could begin to feel the impact of nationalization more fully — but it’s not there yet. The expat population is growing in both the UAE and Saudi, but it’s been a while since we’ve heard of Riyadh’s plan to become home to mns of foreigners. Saudi’s diversification drive, for example, still requires “talent from international markets … but the people around those expats catch on quickly. In no time, you won’t need that expat talent to the same extent until you move on to the next thing,” Murphy says.

What is already evident is that the barrier to entry in Saudi Arabia is now higher. “Where you might have gone with five or six years' experience before, now you probably need another five years,” Murphy said.

An angle for Cairo?

The tightening competition in the GCC is also fueling a new labor arbitrage in the region: outsourcing to cheaper markets like Cairo. Egypt is emerging as the primary beneficiary of this shift, transitioning from a talent exporter into a back-office hub that provides GCC-based firms the regional experience the Gulf needs without the premiums of Riyadh or Dubai salaries.

Which jobs are moving to Cairo? Talent-intensive roles at multinationals — especially UAE-based ones — such as procurement and supply chain management are particularly in-demand, CIPS’ Achampong says.

Will the war bite?

“The UAE has been significantly more impacted by the war than Saudi Arabia,” Murphy told us, citing a different set of challenges — primarily on the fiscal side — for the Kingdom as it works towards a recalibrated Vision 2030. A recent Cooper Fitch survey of company execs showed that international companies in Dubai are focusing on contingency planning, while those operating in Saudi Arabia have mostly been operating as normal and still aim to hit their annual hiring and revenue targets.

Talent isn’t fleeing the Gulf despite the war — not yet, at least, Murphy and Achampong agree. The UAE has traditionally been resilient to external shocks, according to the Global Labor Resilience Index, but a prolonged conflict or any escalation in the violence could see the regional expat talent pool reroute itself as quickly as the supply chains it manages.

DATA POINT- There was a 0.9-1% increase in jobs in the GCC in 1Q 2026, mostly driven by a very strong January and February.

“Resilience is built into the DNA here,” says Achampong, though he notes a growing divide between long-term residents and recent arrivals who lack a deep emotional attachment to the region. “If a permanent ceasefire materializes, Dubai and Abu Dhabi come out of it significantly stronger,” Murphy told us.

Ultimately, the market is defined by its cyclical nature. “Fifteen years ago, it was Dubai; then it moved to Abu Dhabi, Qatar, and now Saudi Arabia,” Achampong explains. The result is a more sophisticated, “sitting” talent pool, he argues: A highly-skilled workforce with global-caliber skills and the regional experience needed to navigate whatever comes next.

Who doesn’t like a bargain?

Newly cost-conscious Saudi Arabia is courting Egyptian contractors to build-out its housing pipeline as it rationalizes its gigaproject ambitions and refocuses capital on projects that have to get built on a deadline — the 2034 World Cup, Expo 2030, and a mass-housing target that the Kingdom needs to nail.

The hook: The state-run National Housing Company (NHC) is working with the Egyptian Federation for Construction and Building Contractors (EFCBC) to brief builders on new qualification rules tailored for Egyptian firms that don’t already operate in the Kingdom, federation board member Shams El-Din Youssef tells EnterpriseAM. Some 25 Egyptian companies have cleared the bar so far, with virtual meetings coming up to finalize terms.

The demand is massive: The NHC is lining up Egyptian capacity against a SAR 200 bn pipeline of housing, utilities, and healthcare work — and building on earlier discussions on sourcing expertise. Saudi domestic contractors are already stretched thin by Diriyah and other priority gigaprojects. Riyadh alone will need north of 305k new homes by 2034, with homeownership now above 66% and the 2030 target set at 70%.

Top-flight Egyptian contractors including Hassan Allam and Orascom Construction are already fixtures of gigaprojects and dozens of other builders are by a wide margin the most experienced in the region at what Saudi needs: large, integrated, horizontal communities built at pace. Egypt’s New Administrative Capital, East Cairo’s mixed-use rollouts, and the North Coast masterplans have given firms like Hassan Allam, OC, Redcon, and Arab Contractors track records on master-planned urbanism that neither Saudi nor UAE peers have matched.

Why the UAE ≠ Saudi: The UAE’s strengths are vertical — towers, mega-malls, and single-asset icons. The Saudi housing brief is a lot more like Cairo’s: Sprawling districts, utilities, schools, clinics and roads, all delivered together and at scale.

BACKGROUND- Saudi is taking advantage of fallout from the war in the Gulf to put down its white elephants, accelerating a push for fiscal discipline that predates the conflict. Neom has already canceled multi-bn USD Trojena lake contracts and scrapped others across the portfolio and PIF has pivoted its USD 100 bn Alat vehicle from chip manufacturing to data centers.

The details: To qualify for Saudi contracts, Egyptian firms need to qualify as first-tier with the EFCBC, have at least 15 years of experience, post EGP 90 mn or more in annual revenues over the past five years, and have no prior Ministry of Investment registration in Saudi Arabia — a rule designed to widen the pool of participants rather than protect incumbents.

Late to the party?

Another banking relief package lands in the GCC: Late to the party compared to its regional counterparts, the Central Bank of Bahrain (CBB) announced a BHD 7 bn stimulus package to boost lending liquidity and provide relief for borrowers and lenders.

The relief structure: Retail banks are set to have access to “unlimited [BHD] liquidity” from the CBB for six months against a collateral of BHD 7 bn. In turn, the banks will provide their business and household customers with the option to defer debt installments, including the principal and interest. Customers will be eligible for the relief for three months, and banks can defer payments on domestic loans worth up to BHD 11.3 bn.

The CBB is also slashing banks’ reserve requirements to 3.5% from 5% — and both the minimum liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) and the net stable funding ratio (NSFR) will be reduced to 80% from 100%.

Lending liquidity has been at the center of central banks’ responses to the war. The Central Bank of Kuwait made a similar move on LCR and the NSFR ratios two weeks ago, whereas other central banks in Jordan, the UAE, and Qatar introduced a range of measures aimed at boosting lending liquidity in their markets.

But why is Bahrain doing it now? It could be, as we’ve previously expected, that it needed an external backstop first to ease the pressure on its balance sheet. The UAE stepped in last week with a USD 5.4 bn lifeline in the form of a currency swap.

REMEMBER- Bahrain has been structurally far weaker than its neighbors before the war even started. It entered the crisis with a public debt rate of nearly 150% of GDP and a downgraded sovereign credit rating nearing junk territory as debt servicing costs rose to be among the highest globally at 34% of government revenue.

And now the country is bracing for a GDP slowdown as Hormuz closure and infrastructure attacks put a dent in its energy exports and industrial output. The World Bank now predicts the country’s economy to grow at just 1.3%, down from a previous January forecast of 3.1%. Bahrain’s GDP grew at 3.5% last year.

Still holding…

The US-Israel ceasefire with Iran is still holding one week later, with renewed hopes for peace talks.

Israel and Lebanon held their first direct negotiations in over four decades overnight in Washington, days after Israel launched deadly attacks on Beirut that killed hundreds in a single day. Hezbollah was not sitting at the table during the talks, after “rejecting” the talks, which are primarily designed to weed out Hezbollah from Lebanon, particularly in the country’s south.

Meanwhile, Iran and the US are reportedly set to return to their negotiations, but they can’t even seem to agree on when that’s happening. While US President Donald Trump suggested the second round of talks with Tehran could happen “in the next two days,” Iran maintains that there is no information available as yet. The first round of talks in Islamabad over the weekend came to a close without an agreement and ended with the US deciding to kick off a counter-blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

What’s the latest on Hormuz anyway? So far, movement has continued to trickle through the Strait of Hormuz, with some heading to the UAE, despite the US’ blockade (which Saudi Arabia is pushing Washington to end). A US-sanctioned Chinese tanker has already passed through the strait since the US’ blockade began, according to shipping data. The tanker was heading to the UAE’s Hamriyah port. Still, the blockade of Iranian ports has been inconsistent at best, with the US intercepting two Iranian oil tankers as they attempted to leave ports yesterday, but at least four other vessels — including two coming from Iranian ports — managed to pass through the strait.

Uneven performance

Tadawul-listed firms are expected to turn in a mixed basket of 1Q 2026 earnings that will reflect the first signs of the regional conflict weighing on Saudi Arabia’s corporate landscape, Bahrain’s Sico Bank said in its quarterly results preview (pdf). The damage is expected to be sector-specific, rather than broad-based, group head of research Chiro Ghosh tells EnterpriseAM.

The hardest-hit sectors will be those exposed to the Strait of Hormuz — think real estate, hospitality, aviation, and manufacturing, Sico Bank says. Banks, meanwhile, are expected to show stability with heavyweights including Riyad Bank, SAB, and SNB holding the line. Al Rajhi Bank and Alinma Bank, meanwhile, appear on course to turn in single-digit net income growth.

Banks will still feel some pressure as higher financing costs put pressure on margins, with higher loan loss provisions also looking likely. Ghosh tells us that while no banks have signaled dividend cuts yet, they are now a “viable option” if volatility returns.

The picture is also looking for industrial names: Cement is looking to be off to a rough start as an unfavorable base effect is expected to result in nearly all major players nursing double-digit declines, with only Arabian Cement bucking the trend. Basic materials and mining are more split, with significant gains in some names (like Maaden) offset by drops in others.

Healthcare is caught between structural and timing headwinds — geopolitical caution late in the quarter, Ramadan seasonality, and front-loaded costs from upcoming hospital openings are all weighing on revenue growth in the sector. Still, the sector is expected to maintain a handful of outperformers, including Suliman Al Habib.

On the flipside, timing was a net positive for retail: The Ramadan effect is expected to have guided Americana to a 86% jump in net income, while BinDawood (+10%), Al Othaim (+5%), and Leejam (+5%) are all expected to post steady gains.

Transportation is a clear casualty: Aviation companies like SAL and SGS are likely to feel the impact of March airspace restrictions and flight cancellations. Airlines such as Air Arabia and Jazeera are expected to be hit the hardest.

Looking past the noise

Saudi and UAE business sentiment holds firm despite disruptions: Businesses and investors in Saudi Arabia and the UAE are maintaining firm medium-term strategies, according to an HSBC global business leaders survey (pdf). The headline finding: Rather than pulling back, most GCC decision-makers see the current disruption as a chance to reposition — reassessing market exposure and doubling down on growth. On the global front, 93% of the surveyed investors plan to increase cross-border trade or investment over the next five years.

Disruption opens the door for business repositioning: 95% of respondents In Saudi see the current economic environment as a catalyst to redefine priorities and reassess market exposure, a view shared by 93% in the UAE. These figures exceed the global average of 88%, with 87% of respondents saying they are now more willing than they were five years ago to take calculated risks to grow their businesses.

Regionalization is the defining trend. The UAE and Saudi Arabia rank as the markets most expected to grow in strategic importance over the next five years, outpacing India, ASEAN, and the broader Middle East. Businesses are increasingly expecting cross-border activity to consolidate regionally, and GCC markets are well-placed to capture that shift.

AI is also reshaping how firms plan for growth and how investors approach the year ahead. Access to technology and infrastructure now rivals market growth and client demand as a factor in international strategy, and investors increasingly see AI exposure as central to portfolio decisions. Productivity gains, better forecasting, and lower operating costs are cited as the top expected benefits. Nearly a third expect AI to fundamentally reshape their core business models by 2030.

Looking ahead, the survey points to private capital displacing public markets as the dominant force in global capital allocation by 2035, and digital finance gaining traction — though adoption obstacles remain significant, with nearly half of businesses still not understanding how digital financing will affect them.

The message from Abu Dhabi Inc: It’s B-A-U…

If there’s been one constant since the outbreak of war, it’s the message from Abu Dhabi Inc. that dealmaking isn’t going to slow down — and that pattern stands unbroken again this morning.

Other sovereign heavyweights are also pushing hard: PIF, Mubadala, and QIA together deployed close to USD 25 bn in 1Q 2026 even as we lost March to the conflict. Sitting on some USD 5 tn in assets and with global peers largely sitting on the sidelines right now, Gulf funds are hunting for distressed assets and pressing ahead with AI, defense, and infrastructure bets placed well before the shooting started.

#1- Mubadala-Petrobras talks back on: Brazil’s state-owned energy firm, Petrobras, is back in early-stage talks to buy Brazil’s Mataripe oil refinery back from Mubadala, with an agreement potentially on the table before year-end. Petrobras had sold the refinery for USD 1.65 bn in 2021 and was last on its way to buying it back in 2024. Mataripe is Brazil’s second-biggest refinery, and is operating under capacity despite c.14% of the country’s total refinery output.

Why now? The renewed push comes as Brazil looks to ease refining bottlenecks. Mataripe is operating at around 60% capacity, while Petrobras’ own plants are near full utilization, adding urgency as diesel prices climb.

BACKGROUND- Mubadala has been restructuring its Brazil portfolio, having recently closed its third Brazil fund of nearly USD 1 bn. Towards the end of last year, it acquired 60.3% of an infrastructure firm, and was also reported to be eyeing taking over a Brazilian fintech.

#2- ALSO IN ADVANCED TALKS- Abu Dhabi’s Adnoc, which is looking to acquire Shell’s fuel retail network in South Africa in a transaction that could be worth USD 1 bn and close as early as this quarter. The talks come as Shell is continuing to offload non-core assets globally.

For Adnoc, this is about global reach: The acquisition would give it roughly 10% of the market in Africa’s largest economy, extending its push into downstream and retail beyond the Gulf and reinforcing a broader overseas expansion drive. That strategy is backed by a USD 150 bn capex budget through 2030, alongside the rapid scaling of its investment arm XRG, which has nearly doubled to a USD 151 bn enterprise value and recently closed a EUR 14.7 bn takeover of Germany’s Covestro.

#3- Abu Dhabi-backed RedBird IMI just got one step closer to exiting the UK’s Telegraph Media Group after the British government greenlit Berlin-based media giant Axel Springer’s GBP 575 mn acquisition of the publication. UK Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy said in a statement yesterday that she is “not minded to intervene,” ending a three-year battle for the broadsheet. Axel Springer also owns Politico and Business Insider.

The mechanics: In practice, this will see RedBird IMI cashout by selling its conversion rights to Axel Springer, which would then swap that debt for 100% equity. The transaction is expected to close by the end of June pending minor regulatory nods in Ireland and Austria, according to the Financial Times.

ALSO WORTH KNOWING TODAY-

Egypt’s state run gas company Egas has signed a preliminary agreement with partners Chevron, Shell, and NewMed Energy to take the entirety of the natural gas produced from Cyprus’s 3.7 tcf Aphrodite field. The deal will be served by a USD 2 bn pipeline linking the field to Port Said, securing up to 700 mmcf/d to feed Egypt’s LNG export infrastructure and reinforce the country’s role as the East Med’s premier processing hub.

The World Bank is throwing USD 500 mn behind Morocco’s labor market, export-oriented pharma, and green energy. The financing is the first tranche of a three-stage program targeting 300k+ jobs — focused on women and youth in SMEs and clean energy — and supporting Rabat's ambition to raise pharma exports sevenfold by 2029.

CMA CGM adds a regional distribution arm: CMA CGM is set to acquire 100% of Lebanon’s Fattal Group — extending the French giant’s operations further into distribution and beyond transport. The agreement, subject to regulatory approvals, is expected to close in 3Q 2026. Fattal Group is a regional distributor with operations in Lebanon, Iraq, Jordan, the UAE, Algeria, Egypt, as well as France and Cyprus.

Ayar Third Investment — a PIF subsidiary — is doubling down on struggling US EV maker Lucid with a USD 550 mn cheque in a larger round that also pulled in USD 200 mn from Uber. The fresh capital comes as Lucid taps former Schindler chief Silvio Napoli as CEO to steady operations after a turbulent 2025 and an expected USD 1 bn operating loss in 1Q 2026.

Egypt’s Ezz Steel is reportedly weighing a USD 780 mn investment to build a 2.5 mn-ton direct reduced iron facility in Algeria — tapping low-cost Algerian gas to de-risk its export corridors and potentially skirt a US tariff wall that has effectively frozen Egyptian rebar out of North America.

Market Snapshot

Tadawul +0.5% • ADX +0.6% • DFM +0.9% • EGX30 +1.8%

Brent USD 94.61 / bbl • Gold USD 4,871 / oz • USD / SAR 3.75 • USD / EGP 52.44

EBRD extends EUR 5 bn lifeline for war-affected economies

EBRD extends regional lifeline

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) is committing EUR 5 bn this year to stabilize economies reeling from the war in the Gulf, according to a statement. The package is directed primarily at Iraq, Lebanon, Jordan, and Palestine — all countries directly affected by the war — as well as economies that are facing knock-on effects, including Egypt, Turkey, Armenia, and Azerbaijan.

What’s next: Expect short-term facilities for state-owned energy utilities to ensure service continuity despite the rising price of energy. Look for the lender’s focus toward the rebuilding of trade routes when conflict recedes.

BACKGROUND- We reported last month that the bank was prepping a financial lifeline to Egypt and others in the region. EBRD has deployed some EUR 26.5  bn in our corner of the world (which it calls the “southern and eastern Mediterranean region”) since 2012.

China’s Henan Zhongfu to roll out USD 2 bn aluminum plant in SCZone

Chinese aluminum manufacturer Henan Zhongfu will set up a USD 2 bn aluminum megaproject in the Suez Canal Economic Zone (SCZone), according to a cabinet statement. The 1 mn sqm facility in East Port Said will target high-value deep processing for the automotive and electronics sectors.

Why it matters: Egypt is emerging as the primary “safe harbor” for heavy industry as regional conflict cripples the GCC’s aluminum giants. With Iranian facilities offline and drone strikes targeting Abu Dhabi’s Emirates Global Aluminum and Aluminum Bahrain, prices went up nearly 5% last month — moving steadily toward a projected USD 4k per ton. By landing this project now, the SCZone is an increasingly important node in the global supply chain.

Lafarge found guilty of terrorism financing in Syria

French cement company Lafarge was found guilty of funding ISIS and other armed groups during Syria’s civil war in a landmark ruling from the Paris Criminal Court. The ruling orders Lafarge — which is now part of Switzerland’s Holcim — to pay the maximum fine of USD 1.2 mn for breaching EU sanctions in addition to funding terror, and sentences former CEO Bruno Lafont to six years in prison. Another seven associates were fined and sentenced to prison.

Background: The case, which was first investigated in 2016, centers on Lafarge paying as much as EUR 13 mn to terrorist groups including ISIS and Al Qaeda-affiliated Nusra Front between 2013 and September 2014 to keep its cement factory in Syria operational. The decade-long legal dispute sets a significant precedent but falls short of ordering compensation for the Syrian employees of Lafarge as victims of terrorism financing.

IEA cuts outlook for oil demand as supply nosedives

Watch this space

The IMF revised down its global growth forecast to 3.1% for 2026 from the 3.4% projected in January, according to its recent World Economic Outlook report (pdf). Without the war, the IMF says global growth would have been revised upward due to strong technology investment and resilient productivity resulting from AI adoption.

The MENA region faces the most significant downgrade of 2.8 percentage points to a 1.1% growth rate in 2026, from a previous forecast of 3.9%, highlighting a hardening regional divide amid war.

** We’ll have a detailed breakdown of projections for the region in Friday’s issue, after the IMF releases its regional economic outlook.

IEA cuts oil demand outlook: The International Energy Agency (IEA) sharply reduced its expectations for oil demand in 2026, which it now sees contracting by 80k bbl / d this year as the war in the Gulf continues to pressure global supply. Roughly 13 mn bbl / d of daily supply have all but vanished from the market and oil-importing nations are “scrambling” to source barrels to cover their needs as the disconnect between physical barrels and futures grows wider.

Remember: Brent futures are hovering at around USD 100 / bbl, but those are futures contracts. If you actually want to buy a tanker full of oil? Physical crude oil prices are sitting at around USD 150 / bbl.

The damage to global crude production has been extensive and expensive: Six weeks of the war knocked out about 10% of global crude production, taking more than 80 facilities offline across refineries, transport hubs, and production sites. The casualty list includes Qatar losing 17% of its LNG export capacity after strikes on Ras Laffan, while Kuwait’s port facilities suffered significant damages, Bahrain’s 400k bbl / d Sitra refinery faces a multi-month recovery, and Abu Dhabi’s Ruwais refinery was also attacked. Iranian refineries, meanwhile, have been gutted by US and Israeli strikes.

Saudi Arabia is the lone outlier bright spot: Despite losing 600k bbl / d of capacity, the country has already restored half of that at the Manifa field, with Khurais expected to follow. The Kingdom also fully restored the 7 mn bbl / d pumping capacity of the East-West pipeline.

Signs of the times

#1- Inflation accelerates in Cairo + Muscat: Annual urban inflation in Egypt accelerated for the second consecutive month to 15.2% in March as the economy absorbed the first full month of the US-Israeli war with Iran, which saw energy prices surge and the EGP slump as portfolio investors pulled out and the cost of fuel imports went up sharply. The acceleration was driven by food and beverage prices, which account for the majority of the goods in Egypt’s CPI basket, as well as electricity, gas, and other fuel items. In Muscat, inflation accelerated last month to 3.6%, compared to 2.0% in February. The rising inflation comes on the back of higher transport, food and beverage, and restaurants and hotel prices.

#2- Sales at high-end brands in Dubai and Abu Dhabi dropped sharply in March as the Iran conflict hit what had been one of the industry’s fastest-growing markets, with declines of 30-50% y-o-y at luxury brands housed at the Mall of the Emirates, Reuters reports, citing a source familiar with the data. Even Abu Dhabi, which is typically more insulated and less tourism-reliant, saw sales at its ADGM-adjacent Galleria Mall fall by around 10% across the board.

Footfall tells the same story: Traffic at Mall of the Emirates fell around 15% in March, while the more tourist-heavy Dubai Mall saw visits drop by roughly half, according to two industry sources cited by Reuters.

In context: Around 60% of luxury spending in the UAE comes from tourists, according to Morgan Stanley. Knock-on effects from rising oil prices and disrupted supply chains could dampen retail appetite even further. Back in March, Bernstein analyst Luca Solca had told CNBC that a 50% dip in sales for the month would constitute a worst-case scenario.

Quick hits

Chinese construction giant CSCEC is looking to revive its repeatedly stalled USD 800 mn project to build 20k homes in Benghazi and kick off new housing developments in Libya.

Background: The project — the contract for which was initially signed in 2008 — is a relic from the pre-2011 era but has since faced several roadblocks and failed attempts at revival, including in 2013 and again in 2024. CSCEC has previously requested compensation for the costs it incurred from the project stalling.

Also worth noting:

Russia wants to export grain, meat, and oil to Jordan
Syria now has an exporters council

Data point

E-payments now account for 85% of all transactions in the Saudi retail industry, up 6% from last year. The value of e-payment transactions through national payment systems (including point-of-sale and e-commerce transactions) climbed nearly 16% year-on-year to SAR 14.6 bn in 2025.

CALENDAR

April 2026

15 Apr — 2Q IPO listing window opens. Region-wide

25 Apr — Sinai Liberation Day (public holiday, markets closed). Egypt

28-29 Apr — US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting.

28 Apr-1 May — Syria HiTech International ICT Exhibition. Damascus, Syria

May 2026

12 May — Qatar Economic Forum (through 14 May). Qatar

21 May — Central Bank of Egypt monetary policy decision. Egypt

25 May — Independence Day (public holiday, markets closed). Jordan

27-30 May — Eid Al Adha (public holiday, markets closed). Region-wide

28 May — Saudi Aramco ex-dividend date. Saudi Arabia

June 2026

7 June — OPEC+ ministerial meeting. Vienna/Virtual

9 June — King Abdullah II Accession Day (public holiday, markets closed). Jordan

10–14 June — Syria Buildex International Construction Exhibition. Syria

16-17 June — US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting.

July 2026

5 July — Independence Day (public holiday, markets closed). Algeria

9 July — Central Bank of Egypt monetary policy decision. Egypt

14 July — Republic Day (public holiday, markets closed). Iraq

23 July — Revolution Day (public holiday, markets closed). Egypt

25 July — Republic Day (public holiday, markets closed). Tunisia

28-29 July — US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting.

30 July — Throne Day (public holiday, markets closed). Morocco

August 2026

13 Aug — Women’s National Day. Tunisia

20 Aug — Revolution of the King and the People Day (public holiday, markets closed). Morocco

20 Aug — Central Bank of Egypt monetary policy decision. Egypt

21 Aug — Youth Day (public holiday, markets closed). Morocco

25 Aug — Prophet’s Birthday (public holiday, markets closed) — TBD. Region-wide

31 Aug-3 Sep — LEAP technology conference. Saudi Arabia

September 2026

7-9 Sep — AIM Congress. UAE

15-16 Sep — US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting.

15 Sep — IMF’s eighth review of Egypt’s USD 8 bn EFF arrangement. Egypt

16-17 Sep — Middle East Banking Innovation Summit. UAE

23 Sep — National Day (public holiday, markets closed). Saudi Arabia

24 Sep — Central Bank of Egypt monetary policy decision. Egypt

30 Sep-3 Oct — Cityscape Egypt 2026. Egypt

October 2026

3 Oct — National Day (public holiday, markets closed). Iraq

6 Oct — Armed Forces Day (public holiday, markets closed). Egypt

15 Oct — GCC Made in the Gulf Forum + Exhibition. TBD

25 Oct — Liberation Day (public holiday, markets closed). Libya

25-27 Oct — World Investment Forum 2026. Qatar

26-29 Oct — Future Investment Initiative. Saudi Arabia

27-28 Oct — US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting.

29 Oct — Central Bank of Egypt monetary policy decision. Egypt

November 2026

1 Nov — Revolution Anniversary (public holiday, markets closed). Algeria

2 Nov — Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition + Conference (ADIPEC) opens (through 5 Nov). UAE

6 Nov — Green March Anniversary (public holiday, markets closed). Morocco

16 Nov — Cityscape Global begins (through 19 Nov). Saudi Arabia

December 2026

17 Dec — Central Bank of Egypt monetary policy decision. Egypt

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