Why the Red Sea playbook won’t work in Hormuz

As the UAE joins Western nations in pushing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, it’s time to ask whether the naval playbook could even work. The Wall Street Journal reports that Abu Dhabi is pushing for a UN Security Council resolution authorizing the use of force, reviewing how its own military could participate — including mine clearance and support operations — and has urged Washington to seize Iranian-held islands in the strait, including Abu Musa. Bahrain is sponsoring the resolution, with a vote possible as early as tomorrow, the paper says.

The UAE is extra edgy after an Iranian drone struck a fully loaded Kuwaiti oil tanker while anchored at Dubai Port, resulting in a fire aboard the vessel. The strike may have triggered an oil spill in the area, the Kuwait Petroleum Corporation said. No injuries were reported, and Dubai authorities have managed to extinguish the resulting fire.

The problem is that Western nations aretrying to reopen Hormuz with a playbook that already failed once, when they tried to re-open the Red Sea route to the Suez Canal in the face of the Houthi attacks on shipping that began in fall 2023.

The Red Sea campaign burned through USD 1 bn in defense spending, saw the loss of ships, and still carrier operators abandoned the route rather than use it. And Hormuz is harder by every measure: The danger zone is up to five times larger than Bab Al-Mandab and Iran operates as a full military force with missiles, drones, mines, mini-submarines, and swarm boats in the same battlespace. Analystsexpect months of sustained operations just to stabilize flows.

Trump looks set to declare ‘victory’ and walk away: “We will be leaving very soon,” he told reporters in the Oval Office overnight. The White House said a couple of hours ago that Trump will deliver a televised address at 9pm Eastern time on Wednesday, and he’s already told he’s willing to end the war without reopening the strait, leaving it to others.

Washington is calling onChina — the largest buyer of Gulf crude — to help, while Nato and European allies have declined to commit forces. Russia and China could veto the UNSC resolution, and France is proposing a different version.

No reroute, no half-measures

There’s no “steam around the cape” alternative to the Strait of Hormuz, which carries roughly a fifth of global oil and LNG, alongside critical commodities from food to metals — volumes that can’t be rerouted at scale.Iran is looking to turn the strait into its version of the Suez Canal — complete with a toll system — and Gulf states fear any diplomatic resolution would hand Tehran a formal say over the waterway.

The risk is that fighting makes things worse before it makes them better. Any military operation would need to control not just the waterway but its 100-mile length, potentially with ground troops. And the UAE could end up absorbing escalating Iranian strikes, eroding investor confidence, and struggling to rebuild ties with a neighbor that outlasts the war.