Trump will address the world tonight on Iran war. What he’s gonna say is anyone’s bet.

Good morning, friends. We’ve held for a while now that an Israeli disinformation op is angling to draw the Gulf countries into the war against Iran.

That’s well out in the open this morning, with the Wall Street Journal citing unnamed “Arab officials” as saying the UAE is not just pushing for a UN resolution to demand the reopening of Hormuz — it’s also champing at the bit to join the fight.

A UN resolution makes sense, but we’re less certain about the military commitment. This much is clear: More than a month in, we can all see the regional economy sliding off the table. The problem is that there are only two people who can do anything to stop it — one sits in DC, the other in Israel.

It feels like one of those ‘inflection point’ days, but with the Trump administration? It’s anybody’s guess. The US press is speculating this morning that The Donald could declare the war is ending after he told reporters overnight, “We will be leaving very soon.” He’s due to make a televised address about the war at 9pm Eastern time tonight. (And to think we have nearly three more years of this…)

All the more reason for banks and businesses across the region to shore up their balance sheets, following the lead of UAE lenders in recent days. –Patrick