Could the Gulf start to change tactics as the war drags on?

Gulf states are reportedly urging Washington to “not stop short” in its military campaign against Iran, fearing repeat future attacks if Tehran’s offensive capabilities remain intact, Reuters reports. It remains unclear, however, what the Gulf’s involvement in the war could look like, or if it will get involved at all, as Iran continues to escalate its attacks on the region.

“Gulf states are not at the moment suggesting any inclination towards joining the war because the economic and reputational costs of it would be too immense,” Amandeep Ahuja, head of research at Confluence Consultants, tells EnterpriseAM. The UAE could be involved in a US-led effort to secure the Strait of Hormuz, the UAE president’s diplomatic advisor Anwar Gargash said, as the closure continues to undercut a key pillar of GCC economies.

The thresholds that would prompt the GCC to get actively involved are “if very critical assets, like desalination plants, are under increased attack, or incidents involving civilian casualties, because Gulf states have positioned themselves as a safe haven,” Ahuja said.

Military options on the table

Gulf countries have several different military options, including granting the US full access to bases and airspace, Senior Fellow for Middle East Policy Hasan Alhasan wrote in a note. While the UAE has avoided any participation in the war, Saudi Arabia has acknowledged providing logistical support for US air patrols. The GCC could also engage in more active and direct retaliation, or target the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ economic, logistical, or energy infrastructure, the report noted.

It’s “unclear whether [the UAE and Saudi] possess sufficient inventories of weapons and munitions to sustain an extended military campaign against Iran,” Alhasan noted. For now, GCC states will likely support through continued information sharing, Nicholas Heras, senior analyst at the New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy, tells EnterpriseAM.

The future of US-Gulf relations

While at an economic level, the US-GCC relationship remains deep and mutually beneficial, the war could prompt strategic realignment among regional leaders when it comes to relationships with the US and Israel, Ahuja noted.

Heras argues that definitive US military success in Iran “would be a soothing balm for US-Gulf relations,” serving to reassure GCC states of Washington’s reliability.

Can we get our oil out, at least?

Meanwhile, oil prices are cooling off slightly as one Pakistani tanker made it through Hormuz and Iraq is about to tap an alternative exit for crude flows. Baghdad reached an agreement with Kurdish authorities to ship oil out of the country through Turkey’s Ceyhan port, and is still in talks with Tehran to let some Iraqi tankers pass through the strait after attacks on tankers in Iraqi waters. The breakthrough — as small as it is — comes after a Pakistani oil tanker inched its way through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday.

Also on our radar:

• Another tanker was hit off the coast of the UAE east of Fujairah while anchored, resulting in minor structural damage, but no injuries. The latest hit marks the third vessel hit in UAE waters in less than a week.
• Dubai and Oman Customs introduced a temporary joint corridor to expedite procedures for sea and air cargo, rerouting shipments through Omani ports and airports, according to a statement (pdf).