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Monday, 8 Jun 2026

What We’re Tracking Today
The Big Story Today
Spotlight
Aviation
Planet Finance
Calendar

Russian crude dominates India’s oil basket amid Gulf supply crunch

Today at a glance

1

THE BIG STORY TODAY

Russia clinches a massive share of India’s oil imports in April.
2

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

L&T grabs Kuwait tender worth USD 992 mn.
3

SPOTLIGHT

Gulf oil shock tests India’s fuel-pricing policy.
4

ENERGY

Cooking gas joins the price-hike cycle.
5

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

IndiGo’s overseas push runs into Airbus delay.
6

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

Fertilizer sales surge as farmers rush to secure supplies.
7

PLANET FINANCE

Digital gold loses its shine.

Monday, 8 Jun 2026

What We’re Tracking Today
The Big Story Today
Spotlight
Aviation
Planet Finance
Calendar
1

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

L&T grabs USD 992 mn contract in Kuwait

Good afternoon, all. We are kicking off the week with a brisk issue, led by Russia’s gains in India’s crude basket in April. Indian refiners are paying a massive war premium to secure Russian crude, pushing Russia’s share of the country’s oil basket to an 11-month high.

In our spotlight, we decode the cracks forming in India’s retail fuel-pricing policy as the Gulf oil shock tests the limits of the government’s hybrid pricing model.

L&T grabs USD 992 mn Kuwait tender

Indian engineering and construction giant Larsen & Toubro (L&T) has locked down a major oil infrastructure mandate in Kuwait. Kuwait’s Central Agency for Public Tenders awarded the company an INR 95 bn (USD 992 mn) contract to deliver new crude storage facilities and critical infrastructure upgrades for the state-run Kuwait Oil Company, Zawya reports.

Regional anchor: The Middle East is already L&T’s largest overseas market, accounting for 40% of its total order book and 34% of revenue in FY 2026. The Kuwait contract adds to that exposure, as Gulf energy, grid, and transport projects remain a key source of work for Indian engineering and construction firms.

Why it matters: The contract underlines L&T’s deeply entrenched role in the GCC’s core upstream and midstream oil and gas ecosystems. It demonstrates that despite broader macroeconomic headwinds, heavy-spending Gulf state businesses are continuously leaning on top-tier Indian engineering firms to execute their long-term, large-ticket energy infrastructure projects.

More woes for IndiGo?

India’s largest carrier, IndiGo, is staring at a bottleneck in its overseas growth strategy, as conflict-driven supply chain snarls look set to delay the delivery of its highly anticipated Airbus A321XLR fleet, Bloomberg reports. The low-cost airline is unlikely to receive nine of the long-range, single-aisle aircraft it expected to induct this year.

The timeline shift: While some deliveries have been pushed back by several months, IndiGo is publicly holding the line, according to the news outlet, stating there is currently no change to its official delivery schedule. The carrier expects to receive its third Airbus A321XLR within days, adding to the two jets already operating on its Athens and Istanbul routes.

Why it matters: The A321XLR is the linchpin of IndiGo’s long-haul international expansion. The narrowbody aircraft allows the carrier to serve point-to-point long-range routes without taking on the heavy capital expenditures and operating costs of widebody jets. Any delay puts the brakes on IndiGo’s overseas network rollout at a time when it is facing record losses due to the Iran war.

Remember, IndiGo reported a net loss of INR 25.4 bn (USD 270 mn) for 4Q FY 2026, as a weaker INR and higher jet fuel costs pushed expenses up 31% y-o-y. It has also cut up to 10% of its scheduled domestic flights for June and July.

Fertilizer sales soar as farmers rush to secure supplies

Disruptions to the global fertilizer trade have sparked an unexpected demand for fertilizers across India’s agricultural heartland, potentially destabilizing the government’s highly touted subsidy policy. Farmers rushed to build safety buffers through March and April as war-related anxieties spilled into wholesale markets, Hindu Businessline reports.

Agri states panic: The spike was pronounced in major agricultural states, including Haryana, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Karnataka. In Haryana, urea sales jumped 80% y-o-y to 170k tons, while diammonium phosphate (DAP) sales more than doubled to 40k tons.

The war-driven buying spree shows how demand-management tools are overwhelmed during periods of supply anxiety. Even states that recorded stable or declining urea consumption witnessed sharp increases in DAP purchases. Balancing fertilizer subsidy reform with food-security concerns continues to be a challenge when global supply chains are disrupted and trigger precautionary buying.

Why it matters: Just last month, state-run Indian Potash Ltdsecured over 400k tons of DAP from Saudi Arabian suppliers — including Maaden and VB Venture — in a single tender at steep prices. India is the world’s largest urea importer, and its fiscal deficit is highly sensitive to fertilizer subsidy costs.

The big story abroad

Iran's first strike on Israel since the April ceasefire and Israel’s retaliatory salvo are leading today’s news cycle. The Israeli military claims to have intercepted all the missiles and no casualties have been reported. The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps called the barrage retaliation for Tel Aviv’s strikes on Lebanon, claiming the Israeli attacks violated ceasefire terms, and vowed to continue strikes if hostilities resume. Israel fired back by targeting western and central Iran.

Israel must accept a truce, Trump says: US President Donald Trump said that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “won’t have any choice” but to accept any resolution Washington closes with Tehran. In a phone call with Netanyahu, Trump pressed the Israeli leader not to retaliate. “Israel had its strike, and Iran had its strike. We don't need another one,” Trump was quoted as saying.

Speaking of which: Trump has publicly urged Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh to cut interest rates, escalating tensions just before Warsh’s inaugural policy meeting. Trump’s demands run counter to current market expectations, which are inclined toward higher borrowing costs following a surge in US employment numbers.

A new and improved ChatGPT: OpenAI’s biggest revamp since its launch of ChatGPT will involve repositioning the chatbot into a “superapp,” which will merge coding tools and AI agents. The changes come as part of a broader evolution at the AI startup, whereby it will shift resources to secure lucrative customers and compete more aggressively with rival Anthropic.

Meanwhile, a high stakes battle unfolds in Italy’s banking sector: Italian banking giants Intesa Sanpaolo and BPER Banca teamed up to structure a joint counter-proposal to take over Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MPS) — considered to be the world’s oldest bank. The move came hours after Banco BPM floated an EUR 50 bn tie-up with MPS.

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2

THE BIG STORY TODAY

Russia grabs 37%

Russian crude carved out its largest footprint in India’s oil mix in nearly a year this April, amid persistent disruptions to traditional Gulf shipping routes. Russia’s share of India’s crude basket climbed to an 11-month high of 37.7% by value, Hindu Businessline reports. India imported nearly 6.7 mn tons of Russian crude in April, recording a 27% increase.

The increased dependence came with a significantly higher check. India purchased Russian barrels at a premium of USD 77.8 per ton compared to the average prices paid to other suppliers. In March, the premium on Russian barrels was USD 14.8/ton, implying a 425% surge in April, according to Hindu Businessline’s calculations. India’s overall oil import bill surged 61.3% m-o-m to USD 15.4 bn, with Russia pocketing USD 5.8 bn in a single month.

Why it matters: The war is actively preventing Gulf national oil companies from capturing high-margin spot demand from their closest and biggest consumer market. Despite their willingness to pay hefty premiums, Indian refiners continue to favor Russian barrels as they are less prone to supply disruptions and shipping constraints.

Another LPG price hike

India’s state-run fuel retailers have increased domestic liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) cylinder prices by 3.2%, as per Indian Oil Corporation. With 54% of India’s LPG moving through the Strait of Hormuz, this extends the impact of the energy crisis to households after a series of hikes in transport and commercial fuel prices. An LPG cylinder has become 10.4% costlier since the war started.

“Despite the increase, Indian households continue to pay among the lowest cooking-gas prices globally. Domestic LPG prices remain below those in neighboring countries and well under levels seen in advanced economies, such as the US, Australia, and Canada,” according to a Petroleum Ministry press release. The widening gap imposes a heavy burden on state-run fuel retailers, with cumulative under-recoveries on domestic LPG estimated at INR 600 bn (USD 6.3 bn) in FY 2026.

Why it matters: The subsidy burden has risen sharply as Saudi Contract Prices for LPG have climbed by about 46% since February. The actual cost of supplying a domestic LPG cylinder has risen above INR 1.6k, implying an under-recovery of roughly INR 700 per cylinder even after the latest hike. This follows multiple increases in gasoline, diesel, compressed natural gas, and commercial LPG prices over recent weeks.

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3

SPOTLIGHT

Gulf oil shock tests India’s fuel-pricing policy

The regional energy shock is exposing cracks in India’s fuel-pricing mechanism. For nearly four years, Indian consumers enjoyed effectively frozen gasoline and diesel prices, shielded from the volatility of global crude and a weakening INR. However, a recent series of price hikes signals that the government’s policy on pump prices is slipping under the weight of the Gulf oil shock.

In a series of hikes, the government increased gasoline prices by 7.8% and diesel by 8.6% since 15 May. State-run fuel retailers are still taking a revenue hit of INR 5.5 bn (USD 57 mn) a day despite the hikes, Reuters reports.

The May hikes eased some pressure on retailers, but they did not settle the margin question. If crude, freight, ins., and INR pressures stay elevated, India may have to change its fuel pricing policy altogether.

“India has deregulated petrol and diesel prices in name, but not fully in practice. The system still operates in the grey zone between market pricing and government control,” Ajay Srivastava, founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative, tells EnterpriseAM.

The current policy is far from ideal. “As global crude oil prices rise and the INR weakens, this hybrid system is coming under stress. The result is opacity, windfall gains during good times, and sudden losses during bad times. India needs a clear, rule-based framework to determine pump prices,” Srivastava tells us.

The recent fuel price hikes should be seen as a partial correction rather than a full return to market-linked pricing. “They signal that the earlier freeze is becoming difficult to sustain, but they do not yet amount to automatic pass-through,” Srivastava says.

Who absorbs the oil shock?

The fuel-pricing question is now a burden-sharing question. The burden has been moving between consumers, oil marketing companies, and the government, but not transparently. This is the central weakness of the current model. “When crude prices fall, taxes rise and oil companies retain higher margins [but] consumers continue to pay the same high price. When crude prices rise, oil companies absorb losses as they delay price increases under government pressure,” Srivastava says.

The latest hikes suggest the government is allowing part of the price shock to move downstream, but in calibrated steps rather than through a one-time repricing. That makes the current phase look less like a clean return to deregulation and more like staggered margin repair.

Why the Gulf shock matters

For an import-dependent country like India, pump-price economics are shaped by the full landed cost of crude, which includes crude oil rate, exchange rates, freight, ins., shipping risk, and logistics. “Pump prices should therefore be linked directly to crude oil prices and exchange rates, because the INR cost of crude changes sharply when global crude prices rise and the currency weakens,” Srivastava argues.

Margin squeeze: Disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, higher tanker costs, war-risk ins. premiums, and a weakening INR can raise the delivered cost of crude even before it reaches Indian refineries. That means retailer margins remain under pressure even if benchmark crude prices alone do not fully capture the shock.

This is why the current shock is more complicated than a typical crude-price cycle. “If shipping routes are disrupted, tanker availability tightens, freight rates rise, or war-risk ins. premiums increase, the delivered cost of crude rises even further,” Srivastava says.

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4

AVIATION

Ailing aviation sector

More flight cancellations could be on the horizon for Indian carriers if jet fuel prices refuse to budge from current highs, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) warns. The Indian carriers are caught in a pincer of skyrocketing aviation turbine fuel (ATF) costs, cooling demand, and restricted route networks, leading to schedule trimming to cope with the margin squeeze.

The pressure is global, too: IATA expects the global airline industry’s net income to halve to USD 23 bn in 2026. Net income per passenger is projected to fall to USD 4.50 from USD 9.10 in 2025, while the industry’s net margin is expected to decline to 2%. ATF rates are currently 62% higher than in November. “If the situation continues, there will have to be more demand destruction,” Hemant Mistry, director of energy transition at IATA, said.

India’s ATF cushion: To insulate domestic carriers, the Indian government has launched an INR 100 bn (USD 1.1 bn) ATF price stabilization fund. The capital relief will be routed through state oil marketing companies to subsidize both domestic and international operations of scheduled Indian airlines. “The ATF price stabilization fund is a very good solution to address the problem. It is a very good output from the government,” according to Mistry.

The demand is also weakening. Outbound international travel by Indians plummeted by over 20% in March and April as Gulf hostilities choked off key flight paths, according to provisional data from the Union Tourism Ministry picked up by Hindu Businessline. Indian international departures fell 22.5% y-o-y to 2.2 mn in April, following a steep 28.6% drop to 1.83 mn in March.

Outbound demand has weakened, especially to the US and Europe, because of higher airfares and fuel surcharges, while leisure travel to the Middle East and some corporate travel have also been deferred.

Why the Gulf corridor matters: The UAE accounts for more than 25% of Indian outbound traffic, with Dubai and Abu Dhabi serving as major transit hubs. Traffic to the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and other Gulf markets fell because of airspace closures and flight cancellations, while Kuwait and Qatar dropped out of the top destinations for Indian travelers. Foreign arrivals into India fell by more than 5% in March and 14% in April.

Airspace squeeze adds to airline stress

To stabilize network schedules, the Federation of Indian Airlines (FIA) is calling on the Civil Aviation Ministry to mandate a strict six-month notice period before hitting carriers with recurring airspace restrictions, Hindu Businessline reports. The industry lobby group — which represents major domestic operators — argues that the government’s habit of dropping late-stage or frequently revised notices to airmen (NOTAMs) for major national events like Republic Day, Independence Day, and the Aero India show. These last-minute disruptions force airlines to repeatedly tear up scheduled flight blocks, execute cascading cancellations, and re-engineer complex network rotations on the fly.

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5

PLANET FINANCE

Digital gold loses its shine

BTC’s digital-gold moment never arrived. BTC briefly fell below USD 60k this week for the first time since October 2024, extending a selloff that has now erased more than half its value from the USD 126k peak reached last year, CNBC and Bloomberg report. ETH sank to its lowest level since last April, while other major tokens including XRP, SOL, and Dogecoin also fell sharply, Bloomberg reports separately.

The awkward part: This should have been BTC’s moment. Geopolitical tensions remain elevated, inflation concerns are resurfacing, and investors are once again debating whether interest rates will stay higher for longer. Yet gold has attracted more defensive flows while BTC has struggled, prompting investors to question both its “digital gold” credentials and its reputation as a high-beta tech trade.

What’s driving the rout? A record streak of ETF outflows, concerns about future demand after Strategy (the world’s largest BTC treasury company) disclosed a rare BTC sale, and a growing sense that crypto is losing its place at the center of the speculative universe. Net assets across BTC ETFs have fallen to USD 80.4 bn from USD 107.8 bn in mid-May, according to CNBC.

Crypto’s bigger problem may be that it is no longer the market’s favorite wager. AI has largely replaced digital assets as the dominant growth trade, while investors now have an expanding menu of alternatives ranging from leveraged ETFs and prediction markets, to stablecoins and perpetual futures.

And there’s another contender waiting in the wings: SpaceX. The potentially record-breaking IPO is shaping up as one of the clearest tests yet of where speculative capital flows next, Bloomberg reports. The listing is banking on the firm’s retail following, allocating 30% of listed shares to retail investors.

The result is a growing fight for retail capital. More than 600 ETFs have launched in the US over the past six months alone, while more than 20 SpaceX-linked ETFs have already been filed ahead of the listing. The takeaway? Investors are still chasing the next big story; BTC just isn’t the only one anymore.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asia-Pacific markets started the week in the red as the AI rally seen over the past few weeks reversed course and oil prices surged after Iran attacked Israel. South Korea’s Kospi was down 7.3%, while Japan’s Nikkei was down 4.4%. “The move looks more like a positioning and momentum unwind than ⁠a reassessment of the long-term AI story,” Lucerne Asset Management’s Marc Velan said.

Sensex

73,578

-0.9% (YTD: -13.6%)

NIFTY 50

23,175

-0.8% (YTD: -11.3%)

ADX

9,509

-1.08% (YTD: -4.8%)

DFM

5,718

-0.8% (YTD: -5.4%)

Tadawul

10,949

+0.1% (YTD: +4.3%)

EGX30

52,329

+0.3% (YTD: +25.1%)

Boursa Kuwait

8,568

-1.5% (YTD: +3.2%)

QSE

10,185

-1.1% (YTD: -5.3%)

S&P 500

7,383

-2.6% (YTD: +7.8%)

FTSE 100

10,323

-0.4% (YTD: +3.9%)

Euro Stoxx 50

6,009

-0.8% (YTD: +3.7%)

Brent crude

USD 97.2

+4.6%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 3.1

-3.4%

Gold

USD 4,310

-1.2%

BTC

USD 63,219

+1.1%

The values in the table above are listed according to the market position as of 3:30pm IST / 2pm GST.

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CALENDAR

JUNE

15-17 June (Monday-Wednesday): Prime Minister Narendra Modi to attend G7 Summit in Evian, France.

18-21 June (Thursday-Sunday): Bharat Buildcon, Yashobhoomi, Dwarka, Delhi.

24-25 June (Wednesday-Thursday): India Homeland Security Expo, Bharat Mandapam, Pragati Maidan, New Delhi.

26 June (Friday): Muharram.

Signposted to happen sometime in 1H 2026:

JULY

1-3 July (Wednesday-Friday): Seafood Expo Bharat, Chennai Trade Centre, Chennai.

3-4 July (Friday-Saturday): Rail & Transit Expo (RailTrans), Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi

3-4 July (Friday-Saturday): SOMS International Exhibition & Conference, Gandhinagar, Gujarat.

8-10 July (Wednesday-Friday): India Energy Storage Week, New Delhi.

14-17 July (Tuesday-Friday): Bharat Tex, New Delhi.

22-24 July (Wednesday-Friday): Rail & Metro Technology Conclave, Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi.

AUGUST

15 August (Saturday): Independence Day.

26 August (Wednesday): Prophet Mohammad’s Birthday.

SEPTEMBER

1-3 September (Tuesday-Thursday): India Energy Week, Dwarka, New Delhi.

1-6 September (Monday-Saturday): Dubai Fashion Week, Dubai Design District.

7 September (Sunday): Opec+ meet to discuss production policy for October.

7-9 September (Monday-Wednesday): iPHEX 2026 International Pharmaceutical Exhibition, Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi.

8-11 September (Tuesday-Friday): Global Fintech Fest, Mumbai.

9 September (Tuesday): Envision 2025, Atlantis, The Royal, Dubai.

17-19 September (Thursday-Saturday): Semicon India Conference, Yashobhoomi, Delhi.

OCTOBER

2 October (Friday): Gandhi Jayanti (Mahatma Gandhi’s Birthday).

20 October (Tuesday): Dussehra.

NOVEMBER

24 November (Tuesday): Guru Nanak Jayanti.

DECEMBER

8-11 December (Tuesday-Thursday): Expand North Star, Dubai.

25 December (Friday): Christmas Day.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2H 2026:

  • Monsoon Session of Parliament is expected to be held in July/August in New Delhi (TBA);
  • Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting for the September cycle (TBA);
  • India Mobile Congress will likely be held in October in New Delhi (TBA).

JANUARY 2027

30 January-3 February (Saturday-Wednesday): Printpack India, India Expo Centre, Greater Noida (Delhi NCR).

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