PolicyBazaar’s UAE playbook

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

India-bound LPG tanker crosses Hormuz amid blockade

Good afternoon, everyone. We are kicking off the week with a relatively quiet news cycle as markets and newsmakers in India remain glued to the fallout from the four state-level elections held earlier this month.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ruling party is on track to secure victory in two states, most notably in West Bengal, where it is set to wrest control from the opposition for the first time since it came to power in 2014. These state-level elections are viewed as a key indicator of the likely direction for future business and policy reform. Modi’s victory in the central state of Bihar last November was followed by a series of business reforms, including the liberalization of the nuclear industry and the implementation of new labor codes. We will keep a track of these developments for you.

In our big story today: Insurtech giant Policybazaar is doubling down on its UAE footprint, shrugging off short-term geopolitical volatility to build out cross-border products tailored to the Indian diaspora.

Let’s dive right in.

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WAR WATCH — An LPG tanker en route to India cleared the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, the first India-linked vessel to cross the waterway since the US-imposed blockade on Iran. Sarv Shakti, a Marshall Islands-flagged ship chartered by state-run Indian Oil Corporation, is expected to offload 46.3k tons of LPG at Visakhapatnam port in southern India next week, as per a press release.

How it navigated the chokepoint: The vessel sailed close to Iran’s Larak island — adhering to a specific transit corridor prescribed by Tehran for safe passage through the strait, Indian Express reports.

The backstory: The movement of India-bound shipping had been severely disrupted since 18 April, when the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) navy fired upon an Indian vessel in the wake of the US blockade. Prior to that escalation, 10 flagged energy shipments had successfully crossed the Strait, a breakthrough achieved following high-level diplomatic negotiations between New Delhi and Tehran, alongside direct on-the-ground coordination with the IRGC.

Why it matters: While the successful crossing provides a narrow window of relief for India’s strained LPG supplies, broader tanker movement through the Strait of Hormuz remains heavily constrained. This ongoing bottleneck leaves half of the country's cooking-fuel imports highly exposed to further delays and logistical volatility.

AVIATION — Indian carriers — Air India, Air India Express, IndiGo, and SpiceJet — reduced nearly 25% of their weekly international flights in May, cancelling over 1k services, amid disruptions linked to the US-Iran-Israel war and restrictions on using Pakistan’s airspace, Business Standard reports, citing Cirium data.

Why it matters: Airspace closures due to the Iran war are forcing airlines to navigate longer routes, sharply increasing fuel burn. With aviation turbine fuel (ATF) prices up by 40%, the Indian carriers have cut operations sharply, even as foreign carriers operating in India have held relatively steady, with only a marginal 1.2% decline. Airlines such as China Eastern Airlines, Swiss, and Cathay Pacific have increased frequencies of flights to India, taking advantage of capacity gaps.

“The airline industry in India is under extreme stress and is on the verge of closing down or of stopping its operations,” industry body Federation of Indian Airlines warned last week in a bid to pressure the government from hiking the ATF prices further.

MANUFACTURING — India’s factory activity improved marginally in April to 54.7 from 53.9 in March, marking the second-weakest improvement in operating conditions in close to four years, according to HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (pdf).

Export orders grew at the fastest pace in seven months, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE among the markets reporting stronger demand. Even as Indian manufacturing is showing resilience on the back of higher output and export orders, cost pressures are feeding into factory prices, lifting selling prices at the fastest pace in six months. Hiring also picked up, with employment rising at the fastest pace in 10 months.

“Spillovers from the Middle East conflict are becoming more evident, particularly through inflation: input costs increased at the fastest pace since August 2022, and output prices rose at the quickest rate in six months,” according to Pranjul Bhandari, Chief India Economist at HSBC.

Data point

INR 2.43 tn (USD 25.6 bn) — that’s India’s goods and services tax (GST) collection in April, up 8.7% y-o-y and the highest monthly collection since the tax was introduced, Business Standard reports. The previous record was over INR 2.23 tn in April last year.

The big story abroad

US forces will begin guiding vessels stranded in the Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz today, President Donald Trump said. With many of these ships running low on provisions, Trump characterized the effort, which he is calling “Project Freedom,” as a “humanitarian gesture” but offered few concrete details on what this would entail.

Where do US-Iran peace talks stand? Tehran is currently reviewing Washington’s response to its latest peace proposal, a 14-point framework reportedly designed to end hostilities and lift the naval blockade on the Islamic Republic.

Making waves in the business press is US retailer Gamestop, whose CEO Ryan Cohen aims to make an unsolicited bid to acquire eBay for some USD 56 bn. Cohen revealed that GameStop has acquired around 5% of the e-commerce player and is proposing a buyout at USD 125 per share. The proposal, consisting of stock and liquid funds, represents a 20% premium over eBay’s Friday closing price.

Also, are blockbuster comedies back? The Devil Wears Prada 2 raked in USD 233 mn at the box office over its opening weekend, the highest figure for a traditional comedy in 11 years.

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Policybazaar doubles down on UAE with product push

India’s largest digital ins. player Policybazaar is doubling down on its UAE presence, brushing off short-term volatility from the regional conflict to focus on strengthening its product offerings and post-sales experience in the emirates. The Emirates “remains our primary focus. We’ve invested significantly, but there’s still considerable headroom, especially in product depth, technology, and accessibility,” CEO of Policybazaar UAE Neeraj Gupta tells EnterpriseAM.

“Expansion beyond the UAE will come when we see the right [opening],” Gupta said. The UAE business has been consistently profitable and grew 64% y-o-y in 2Q FY 2026 (July-September). The approach indicates confidence in the region even as global firms continue to reassess exposure amid geopolitical risks.

What they do: PB Fintech, the Gurugram-based parent firm which operates Policybazaar and Paisabazaar, offers comparison and distribution of health, life, and motor ins., alongside credit products. The company rolled out UAE operations in 2018 with funds raised in 2021. In the UAE, it has localized this model through insurer partnerships and diaspora-focused health plans while expanding into credit aggregation.

IN CONTEXT- PB Fintech invested around AED 12 mn (USD 3.2 mn) into its UAE arm, Genesis Group, deploying its India IPO proceeds earmarked for overseas expansion.

Building a corridor product: While the UAE business initially mirrored Policybazaar’s India model, it is increasingly evolving into a cross-border proposition. Motor, health, and life ins. remain the company’s core lines in the UAE. Health and motor contribute the bulk of revenues, while life ins. is the fastest-growing segment.

“The Indian diaspora is a natural starting point. They are a large demographic and already aware of our brand,” Gupta tells us, adding that the company is now seeing an uptick in traction from other nationalities, including Arab and European expats. This diaspora demand is reflected in product design, with offerings tailored to cross-border mobility, including health ins. plans that provide continuity and portability back to India.

Credit push gains traction: PB Fintech is also expanding beyond ins. through Paisabazaar, its credit marketplace launched in the UAE in February last year. “The UAE is a multi-card, offer-driven market, and a key focus this year is scaling unsecured lending,” said Gupta. Unlike India’s underpenetrated credit ecosystem, the UAE presents a more mature, competitive landscape, requiring bank-led partnerships and sharper pricing to acquire customers.

No war-driven premium inflation: “We haven’t seen any premium increases linked to the conflict, and we don’t expect that in the near term,” Gupta says. He notes a shift in consumer behavior: interest in protection products like term ins. has increased in the aftermath of the war, while investment-linked products have slowed. Initially, customers delayed purchase decisions, but activity has rebounded since the ceasefire, he adds.

Despite war-driven volatility, Policybazaar is maintaining its long-term investment stance in the UAE. “Ins. is a long-term business,” Gupta said. “From a decade-long perspective, this is a temporary disruption. Our plans remain unchanged; we continue to invest and hire.”

The India-UAE data embassy pact

India and the UAE are exploring the creation of mutual “data embassies” as part of a sweeping new digital infrastructure partnership. Announced during UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan’s state visit to India in January, the ambitious proposal is part of bilateral collaboration on 8 exaflops of compute capacity and 2 GW of dedicated data center capacity.

What is a data embassy? A data embassy operates much like a physical diplomatic mission, but for a nation's critical digital assets. It is a secure offshore setup where databases, servers, and cloud systems are hosted in a foreign country while remaining under the complete sovereign control of the home country. The model is designed to keep essential digital services online even if domestic infrastructure faces a catastrophic disruption, Sagar Vishnoi, co-founder and director at Future Shift Labs, tells EnterpriseAM.

“It’s basically like creating a secure repository of strategic information — like an extension of a country’s digital infrastructure in another geography, so that even in case of disruption, the data and governance systems continue,” Vishnoi tells us.

The proposal slots neatly into a broader bilateral push spanning AI, emerging technologies, and supercomputing. The UAE's aggressive digital infrastructure build-out, heavy investments in data centers, and advanced AI ecosystem — bolstered by institutions like the Mohamed bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence — make it an ideal partner for India, Vishnoi noted.

“This is a win-win situation for both countries. A data embassy is a relatively new concept — where a country’s data, like cloud systems, databases, and secure infrastructure, can be hosted in another country under specific compliance and policy frameworks,” Vishnoi says.

Working out the rules of the road: The two nations have agreed to explore these data embassies under “mutually recognized sovereignty arrangements,” according to India's Ministry of External Affairs.

If the concept takes off, it will drive massive demand for data centers, cloud storage, and cross-border cybersecurity solutions. “There will likely be a surge in demand for data centers, cloud storage, cybersecurity services, and cross-border data management solutions,” Vishnoi says, highlighting that digital infrastructure is becoming part of international economic engagement, “similar to how trade or energy corridors work.”

The scale of ambition: The broader bilateral tech partnership targets an immense 8 exaflops of compute capacity alongside the 2 GW data center build-out. Feasibility studies are slated to wrap up by mid-2026, paving the way for groundbreaking in early 2027, with Phase 1 operations targeted for 2028.

Building out this infrastructure won't be cheap or easy. Tier-4, AI-ready data centers cost roughly USD 11.3 mn per MW to construct. Meanwhile, high-end sovereign hardware — like advanced graphics processing units (GPUs) and specialized cooling systems — is facing severe supply chain bottlenecks, with lead times stretching up to 18 months.

Then there's the regulatory framework. Both nations will have to navigate a complex maze of jurisdiction, access rights, security standards, and dispute resolution mechanisms. Aligning India’s Digital Personal Data Protection Act with the UAE’s distinct data frameworks will be a critical first step.

“The idea is that even though the infrastructure is physically located in another country, the data remains under the home country’s sovereignty and is protected from host-country interference," Vishnoi says. "But these are things that both governments — especially external affairs ministries — will need to work out in detail.”

What’s next? The proposal remains early-stage and will depend on whether India and the UAE can agree on jurisdiction, access rights, cybersecurity standards, and sovereign protections. If it moves forward, data embassies could add a new digital layer to the India-UAE economic corridor.

Adani Ports growth to moderate as trade disruptions bite

Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone reported a 9% y-o-y rise in consolidated net income to INR 33.1 bn (USD 356 mn) and a 26% y-o-y increase in revenues in 4Q (ending 31 March) FY 2026, led by strong cargo volumes and improved realizations, according to a company press release.

The company closed FY 2026 with a 16% y-o-y rise in its bottom line and 25% y-o-y growth in annual revenue. The acquisition of the North Queensland Export Terminal in Australia added about 35 mn tons to its cargo capacity, contributing significantly to its revenue growth.

The shipping major has warned that its core earnings growth will moderate in FY 2027 as global trade disruptions from the US-Iran war and tariff pressures weigh on volumes. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted global shipping routes, while US tariffs have dampened trade flows.

Why it matters: Between 2023 and 2026, Adani Ports executed a multi-bn-USD international buying spree, anchored by the USD 1.1 bn acquisition of Israel’s Haifa Port and the USD 800 mn deep-water Colombo West Terminal in Sri Lanka. The network was fortified by a 30-year concession for Dar es Salaam’s Container Terminal in Tanzania, where it partnered with the Emirates' AD Ports Group. Having successfully captured these strategic gateways, Adani is pivoting to a defensive, asset-light approach, as the conflict stalls trade across the corridor.

What’s next: The company is projecting core earnings growth of up to 14% for FY 2027, cooling from the 20% y-o-y growth recorded in the previous year. Revenue is projected to grow in the 11-16% range. Consequently, the firm is tightening its belt, with capital expenditure set to decline to roughly USD 1.4 bn in FY 2027 on the back of the muted earnings projection.

Bypassing US protectionism

US protectionism is pushing the rest of the world to rewire trade — and the USD 22 tn EU-Mercosur agreement makes that shift concrete. The agreement between the European Union and Mercosur went live provisionally on 1 May, linking 720 mn consumers into the largest freetrade area by population after more than 25 years of negotiations.

The Mercosur agreement will gradually remove tariffs on most industrial and agricultural goods while shielding politically sensitive sectors like beef, poultry, sugar, and fruit. Framed by Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as a direct response to US President Donald Trump’s tariffs and “a reaffirmation of multilateralism,” the agreement is expected to deliver relatively modest economic gains despite its scale. The next phase of this agreement is likely to show up in investment flows, not just trade volumes.

How? By lowering barriers and aligning rules, it gives European firms a clearer path into South America’s supply chains — especially in areas like mineral processing, where China has long dominated investment. As competition for resources tied to energy and industrial policy intensifies, countries are responding to a more protectionist US stance by deepening ties elsewhere.

Why does it matter? The agreement pulls the EU into that competition, expanding its role from trade partner to long-term investor in mining, processing, and infrastructure. Ongoing talks with India, Indonesia, and Australia reflect a wider effort to stay involved in shaping trade and investment as global rules weaken and countries increasingly turn to region-to-region agreements.

Companies are already positioning around that shift. South American agribusinesses — from beef and fruit to minerals — are looking to expand exports into Europe, while European automakers, pharma firms, and tech companies are targeting growth and investment prospects in Mercosur.

Where the risks lie: The agreement is not fully locked in — Ursula von der Leyen moved to enact it provisionally without full parliamentary approval, triggering a possible court challenge at the EU’s judiciary. If the court rules against it, the agreement could be halted, raising questions over long-term investment flows and the EU’s credibility. Even so, markets like Mercosur are unlikely to fully replace lost trade with Washington, underscoring that this is more about diversification than substitution.

The bottom line: Beyond beef quotas, this is about supply chains, capital allocation, and geopolitical positioning. As US protectionism reshapes global trade, blocs like EU-Mercosur are moving to redirect flows of goods, capital, and influence — if judicial challenges don’t derail it.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asia-Pacific markets were up in early trading this morning, led by South Korea’s Kospi, which is up over 3.6%. Japan’s Nikkei is closed today in observance of Greenery Day. Wall Street futures are flat, suggesting a muted start to the week as investors sit tight awaiting the many earnings reports due over the course of the week.

Sensex	77,160	+0.3% (YTD: -9.4%)
NIFTY 50	24,106	+0.4% (YTD: -7.7%)
ADX	9,863	+0.7% (YTD: -1.2%)
DFM	5,840	+1.2% (YTD: -3.4%)
Tadawul	11,126	-0.6% (YTD: +6.09%)
EGX30	52,469	+0.3% (YTD: +25.4%)
Boursa Kuwait	8,594	-0.1% (YTD: +3.5%)
QSE	10,556	+0.2% (YTD: -1.9%)
S&P 500	7,230	+0.2% (YTD: +5.6%)
FTSE 100	10,363	-0.1% (YTD: +4.3%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,850	-0.5% (YTD: +1.02%)
Brent crude	USD 109.5	+1.2%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 2.83	+1.9%
Gold	USD 4,575	-0.9%
BTC	USD 79,863	+1.7%

The values in the table above are listed according to the market position as of 3:30pm IST / 2pm GST.

CALENDAR

MAY

4 May (Monday): Counting of election votes for Indian States and Union Territories.

8-9 May (Friday-Saturday): ICC World Technology Convention, Jio World Convention Centre, Mumbai.

26 May (Tuesday): Eid Ul-Adha.

JUNE

15-17 June (Monday-Wednesday): Prime Minister Narendra Modi to attend G7 Summit in Evian, France.

18-21 June (Thursday-Sunday): Bharat Buildcon, Yashobhoomi, Dwarka, Delhi.

24-25 June (Wednesday-Thursday): India Homeland Security Expo, Bharat Mandapam, Pragati Maidan, New Delhi.

26 June (Friday): Muharram.

Signposted to happen sometime in 1H 2026:

Signing of India-Qatar FreeTrade Agreement (Details yet to be announced);
India-EU Trade and Technology Council Ministerial Meeting, Brussels, Belgium;
India to host the Brics Summit.

JULY

1-3 July (Wednesday-Friday): Seafood Expo Bharat, Chennai Trade Centre, Chennai.

3-4 July (Friday-Saturday): Rail & Transit Expo (RailTrans), Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi

3-4 July (Friday-Saturday): SOMS International Exhibition & Conference, Gandhinagar, Gujarat.

8-10 July (Wednesday-Friday): India Energy Storage Week, New Delhi.

14-17 July (Tuesday-Friday) Bharat Tex, New Delhi.

22-24 July (Wednesday-Friday): Rail & Metro Technology Conclave, Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi.

AUGUST

15 August (Saturday): Independence Day.

26 August (Wednesday): Prophet Mohammad’s Birthday.

SEPTEMBER

1-3 September (Tuesday-Thursday): India Energy Week, Dwarka, New Delhi.

7-9 September (Monday-Wednesday): iPHEX 2026 International Pharmaceutical Exhibition, Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi.

8-11 September (Tuesday-Friday): Global Fintech Fest, Mumbai.

17-19 September (Thursday-Saturday) : Semicon India Conference, Yashobhoomi, Delhi.

OCTOBER

2 October (Friday): Gandhi Jayanti (Mahatma Gandhi’s Birthday).

20 October (Tuesday): Dussehra.

NOVEMBER

24 November (Tuesday): Guru Nanak Jayanti.

DECEMBER

8-11 December (Tuesday-Thursday), Expand North Star, Dubai.

25 December (Friday): Christmas Day.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2H 2026:

Monsoon Session of Parliament is expected to be held in July/August in New Delhi (TBA);
Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting for the September cycle (TBA);
India Mobile Congress will likely be held in October in New Delhi (TBA).

JANUARY 2027

30 January-3 February (Saturday-Wednesday): Printpack India, India Expo Centre, Greater Noida (Delhi NCR).

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