THIS AFTERNOON: Indian Oil Corporation tanker navigates blocked strait

Good afternoon, everyone. We are kicking off the week with a relatively quiet news cycle as markets and newsmakers in India remain glued to the fallout from the four state-level elections held earlier this month.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ruling party is on track to secure victory in two states, most notably in West Bengal, where it is set to wrest control from the opposition for the first time since it came to power in 2014. These state-level elections are viewed as a key indicator of the likely direction for future business and policy reform. Modi’s victory in the central state of Bihar last November was followed by a series of business reforms, including the liberalization of the nuclear industry and the implementation of new labor codes. We will keep a track of these developments for you.

In our big story today: Insurtech giant Policybazaar is doubling down on its UAE footprint, shrugging off short-term geopolitical volatility to build out cross-border products tailored to the Indian diaspora.

Let’s dive right in.

Riyadh to Mumbai. Abu Dhabi to Singapore. Dubai to London. Cairo to Shenzhen.

The most important business stories in MENA aren’t happening inside MENA anymore — they’re happening at the edges, where regional capital meets global ambition.

EnterpriseAM MENA+ is our new flagship newsletter, built to cover the flows of capital, people, and ideas across the Middle East — and beyond it. AI, geopolitics, the war for talent, sovereign wealth strategy, the changing energy economy, and the new corridors reshaping global trade.

Tap or click here to get your own copy delivered to your inbox every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday at 12 pm UAE | 11 am KSA | 11 am Egypt.

Watch this space

WAR WATCH — An LPG tanker en route to India cleared the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, the first India-linked vessel to cross the waterway since the US-imposed blockade on Iran. Sarv Shakti, a Marshall Islands-flagged ship chartered by state-run Indian Oil Corporation, is expected to offload 46.3k tons of LPG at Visakhapatnam port in southern India next week, as per a press release.

How it navigated the chokepoint: The vessel sailed close to Iran’s Larak island — adhering to a specific transit corridor prescribed by Tehran for safe passage through the strait, Indian Express reports.

The backstory: The movement of India-bound shipping had been severely disrupted since 18 April, when the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) navy fired upon an Indian vessel in the wake of the US blockade. Prior to that escalation, 10 flagged energy shipments had successfully crossed the Strait, a breakthrough achieved following high-level diplomatic negotiations between New Delhi and Tehran, alongside direct on-the-ground coordination with the IRGC.

Why it matters: While the successful crossing provides a narrow window of relief for India’s strained LPG supplies, broader tanker movement through the Strait of Hormuz remains heavily constrained. This ongoing bottleneck leaves half of the country's cooking-fuel imports highly exposed to further delays and logistical volatility.

AVIATION — Indian carriers — Air India, Air India Express, IndiGo, and SpiceJet — reduced nearly 25% of their weekly international flights in May, cancelling over 1k services, amid disruptions linked to the US-Iran-Israel war and restrictions on using Pakistan’s airspace, Business Standard reports, citing Cirium data.

Why it matters: Airspace closures due to the Iran war are forcing airlines to navigate longer routes, sharply increasing fuel burn. With aviation turbine fuel (ATF) prices up by 40%, the Indian carriers have cut operations sharply, even as foreign carriers operating in India have held relatively steady, with only a marginal 1.2% decline. Airlines such as China Eastern Airlines, Swiss, and Cathay Pacific have increased frequencies of flights to India, taking advantage of capacity gaps.

“The airline industry in India is under extreme stress and is on the verge of closing down or of stopping its operations,” industry body Federation of Indian Airlines warned last week in a bid to pressure the government from hiking the ATF prices further.

MANUFACTURING — India’s factory activity improved marginally in April to 54.7 from 53.9 in March, marking the second-weakest improvement in operating conditions in close to four years, according to HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (pdf).

Export orders grew at the fastest pace in seven months, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE among the markets reporting stronger demand. Even as Indian manufacturing is showing resilience on the back of higher output and export orders, cost pressures are feeding into factory prices, lifting selling prices at the fastest pace in six months. Hiring also picked up, with employment rising at the fastest pace in 10 months.

“Spillovers from the Middle East conflict are becoming more evident, particularly through inflation: input costs increased at the fastest pace since August 2022, and output prices rose at the quickest rate in six months,” according to Pranjul Bhandari, Chief India Economist at HSBC.

Data point

INR 2.43 tn (USD 25.6 bn) — that’s India’s goods and services tax (GST) collection in April, up 8.7% y-o-y and the highest monthly collection since the tax was introduced, Business Standard reports. The previous record was over INR 2.23 tn in April last year.

The big story abroad

US forces will begin guiding vessels stranded in the Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz today, President Donald Trump said. With many of these ships running low on provisions, Trump characterized the effort, which he is calling “Project Freedom,” as a “humanitarian gesture” but offered few concrete details on what this would entail.

Where do US-Iran peace talks stand? Tehran is currently reviewing Washington’s response to its latest peace proposal, a 14-point framework reportedly designed to end hostilities and lift the naval blockade on the Islamic Republic.

Making waves in the business press is US retailer Gamestop, whose CEO Ryan Cohen aims to make an unsolicited bid to acquire eBay for some USD 56 bn. Cohen revealed that GameStop has acquired around 5% of the e-commerce player and is proposing a buyout at USD 125 per share. The proposal, consisting of stock and liquid funds, represents a 20% premium over eBay’s Friday closing price.

Also, are blockbuster comedies back? The Devil Wears Prada 2 raked in USD 233 mn at the box office over its opening weekend, the highest figure for a traditional comedy in 11 years.

***YOU’RE READING EnterpriseAM MENA - India, your C-suite briefing on the movement of trade, investment, people, and ideas along one of the world’s most exciting corridors. Every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday at 2:30pm UAE, we dive deep into the business, finance, economy, and policy headlines and trendlines that will move markets and set the tone for your day.

Were you forwarded this briefing? Tap or click here to sign up without charge for your owncopy. ***

Circle your calendar

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays, and news triggers.