Fourth fuel hike in India

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

Emirates NBD to launch open offer for RBL Bank stake

Good morning, friends, and happy Eid al Adha in advance. State-run refiners are passing the pain to consumers with a fourth fuel hike in 10 days, while the RBI aggressively defends the INR and hands over a record dividend to plug New Delhi's widening fiscal gaps.

Plus: In today’s spotlight, we have an exclusive story on Bengaluru-based iD Fresh’s GCC playbook following our chat with its global CEO, PC Musthafa. The fresh food label is setting up a new factory in Riyadh while making an entry into the Kuwaiti and Bahraini markets ahead of its IPO back home.

** A QUICK PROGRAMMING NOTE- EnterpriseAM will be joining the rest of you in taking time off for Eid Al Adha. We will be back in your inboxes next Monday afternoon at the same time.

ENBD runs the final lap for RBL takeover

Emirates NBD will launch its open offer on 1 June to acquire up to a 26% stake in RBL Bank’s public shareholders, running through 12 June, Reuters reports. Under Indian takeover regulations, the open offer is mandatory after a buyer acquires a substantial stake in a listed company.

By the numbers: The Dubai-based lender has set the offer price at INR 282.3 per share and INR 2.3 in interest, nearly 16% markdown to RBL Bank’s Friday closing price. If fully subscribed, the transaction would cost Emirates NBD around INR 117.3 bn (USD 1.2 bn).

Why it matters: This will mark the culmination of one of the largest cross-border banking M&As for India’s banking sector worth USD 3 bn. With all major regulatory approvals from the Reserve Bank of India and the Indian government now secured, the closing of this public offer will allow NBD to finalize its controlling stake and eventually fold its existing Indian branches into RBL's domestic network.

India’s Gulf LNG route flickers back to life

Abu Dhabi National Oil Company-operated liquefied natural gas (LNG) tanker Al Hamra has become the first Gulf LNG shipment bound to India since the war began. The vessel, which was loaded at UAE’s Das Island, exited the Strait of Hormuz carrying LNG for India’s western coast, Bloomberg reports. The vessel is expected to dock at Dahej port in Gujarat, according to Marine Traffic.

The workaround: The cargo appears to have crossed Hormuz without a live public signal. Al Hamra stopped transmitting around 19 April while empty near the eastern entrance of the strait, then later loaded at Das Island and reappeared outside Hormuz. Satellite images showed LNG tankers at Das Island even when no vessels were broadcasting positions near the plant, Bloomberg added.

Why it matters: India received more than half of its LNG from Qatar and the UAE last year, but those flows have largely stopped in recent months, pushing Indian buyers toward costlier spot cargoes from alternate supply sources and forcing supply curbs for some industries.

MEANWHILE- Ships from India will return to the Strait of Hormuz only after stranded Indian ships return from the Gulf waterways — “Our priority is to get all our ships out of the Strait of Hormuz,” a senior official of India’s Ministry of Ports, Shipping and Waterways told Reuters.

IN CONTEXT- As of Thursday, thirteen India-flagged vessels and one Indian-owned vessel were stranded on the western end of the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the effective closure of the waterway, India has already managed to secure passage of 13 energy cargo vessels — mostly carrying liquefied petroleum gas — through coordinated diplomacy with Tehran.

Happening this week

India and Canada will hold three-day FTA talks beginning today during Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal’s visit to Canada, Bloomberg reports. Goyal is expected to meet Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, trade officials, and major pension funds during his visit. Both sides seek to warm up economic ties and cooperation across critical minerals, energy and supply chains. This follows Carney’s India visit earlier this year, when the two countries agreed to expand uranium trade through a USD 1.9 bn supply pact and formally launched negotiations for a broader trade pact to diversify commercial ties beyond the US.

The big story abroad

Despite news of an incoming US-Iran truce, borrowing costs are expected to stay high amid high levels of US borrowing, the whopping debts incurred by the AI boom, and a return to monetary tightening. Even if the conflict resolves soon — and the inflation caused by costly oil prices subsides — there is reason to believe the recent spike in long-term yields will not fully abate.

Speaking of which: President Donald Trump ordered negotiators not to rush into an agreement with Iran, emphasizing that the US naval blockade will “remain in full force” until such a pact is reached. Media affiliated with the Iranian regime has reported that Washington is still obstructing aspects of a potential resolution.

Meanwhile, in outer space: China dispatched the Shenzhou-23 crewed spaceflight mission yesterday, conveying three astronauts to its space station in efforts to better understand the physiological effects of prolonged periods in space. Beijing has set its sights on a crewed moon landing by 2030.

ALSO- Is ‘Gen Z’ a misnomer? Financial Times Business Columnist Pilita Clark suggests that our understanding of the so-called Gen Z demographic may be far from the reality. She relies on research, books, and articles to make her case and advise employers not to perpetuate misleading stereotypes about younger people, indicating that older demographics often exhibit similar problems, concerns, and behaviors.

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Fourth retail fuel hike

India’s fuel-price freeze is breaking under the weight of the Gulf oil shock. State-run fuel retailers raised gasoline and diesel prices for the fourth time in 10 days as higher crude costs linked to the Iran war continue to pressure revenues, Reuters reports, citing dealers. The latest increase raised diesel by INR 2.71 / litre, and gasoline by INR 2.61 / litre.

Finally, passing the cost to consumers: The fourth hike by Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation extends a staggered pass-through that began on 15 May, when India raised retail fuel prices for the first time in four years. Since then, diesel prices have surged by about 8.6%, while petrol is up 7.8%.

While fuel had already become roughly INR 5 per liter costlier over the first three hikes, refiners argued that further increases were necessary to stay afloat. After the first two hikes, BPCL was taking a hit of INR 25-30 / litre on diesel and INR 10-14 / litre on petrol. Meanwhile, the Oil ministry has ruled out a support package for energy companies hinting more such hikes may be coming up.

Demand distortion: The widening gap between crude and retail prices is fundamentally shifting consumer behavior. Consumers are shifting to cheaper state-run retail pumps as private players Nayara and Shell increased the prices much earlier, exacerbating state retailers’ revenue losses. State-run retailers saw sales for both petrol and diesel rise nearly 9% in April. In contrast, Nayara saw its petrol sales fall 30% and diesel drop 46% in April after it hiked pump prices in late March.

Why it matters: Rising crude prices and supply chain disruptions are now actively moving through India’s domestic fuel system, complicating the government's efforts to curb fuel use and contain a ballooning oil import bill. For an economy that ranks as the world’s third-largest oil importer and consumer, these higher pump prices will inevitably feed into elevated transport costs, tightened household budgets, and surging inflation.

India’s fuel hikes are moderate compared to global levels: Even after the fourth hike, retail fuel prices have surged moderately in India signalling that the government is still shielding consumers against the oil shock. The contained domestic pricing stands in stark contrast to developed economies like the US, the UK, and France, where pump prices have skyrocketed between 19% and 48%, according to Economic Times. Regional and broader Asian markets such as China and South Korea have seen hikes of up to 26%, while neighboring Nepal and Sri Lanka endured severe spikes of nearly 60%, underscoring Modi government’s still tight grip on domestic fuel inflation.

Traders demand tax cut

They want a flat 5% VAT on fuel: The Chamber of Trade and Industry has requested Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri to direct state finance ministers to slash VAT on gasoline and diesel at a uniform rate of 5% for three months, arguing it could lower prices by up INR 15 / litre, Zee Business reports. The proposal comes as trade and transport groups warn that repeated fuel hikes are adding pressure on businesses, consumers and transport operators. Each state in India has discretionary powers to impose VAT on gasoline and diesel which ranges up to 30% in some parts of the country.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Batter-ing up Gulf appetite

Bengaluru-based iD Fresh Food is heavily expanding its footprint in the Middle East, with plans to launch a new manufacturing base in Riyadh by the end of the year to serve a booming Gulf appetite for its ready-to-cook products. After making significant strides in the UAE, the IPO-bound fresh food label is shifting its focus to localize production and reduce freight dependence as regional demand surges, PC Musthafa, global CEO of iD Fresh tells EnterpriseAM.

GCC takes center stage for pre-IPO growth

A growing revenue driver: The Gulf region is now iD Fresh's largest international market, with the UAE contributing nearly a third of its international business. “Saudi Arabia could be 3x to 4x of the UAE market, and our coverage in Saudi is very small today,” Musthafa says.

Why now? “When you have scale, it is better to manufacture locally. You can save transportation costs and inventory as well.” The expansion comes months after British private equity firm Apax Partners picked up a 35% minority stake in iD Fresh in a reported USD 152 mn (INR 15 bn) transaction.

What does iD Fresh do? The company offers both frozen and fresh products, present across 7.5k retail outlets, all served by its Ajman food processing plant. iD Fresh plans to enter Kuwait next month, followed by Bahrain. The company manages manufacturing and distribution directly rather than through retail partnerships, allowing tighter control over its perishable product supply chain. “The overall business is built with zero compromise on values, zero shortcuts, zero preservatives, zero chemicals and zero inventory,” Musthafa tells us.

The big picture: India’s food and grocery market is the world’s sixth largest, with retail making up 70% of sales. The food processing industry accounts for 32% of this market and is projected to expand to USD 535 bn at a CAGR of over 20%.

Adapting to local taste

Arabs love iDli-dosa: iD Fresh’s market research for Saudi Arabia found that a solid 64% of all customers were Arabs rather than Indians. iD Fresh currently holds up to 45% market share in ‘parotta’ (layered flatbread) in the UAE and around 25% in batter (fermented rice and lentil used to make pancakes and steamed cakes), Musthafa tells us. This is supported by strong cold-chain and last-mile infrastructure in the Gulf as well as greater acceptance for packaged and frozen foods.

Gulf consumers drive demand: The GCC has been a much easier market to penetrate for iD’s packaged fresh foods than India, where “anything in packaged form is considered unhealthy, especially batter.” With two-thirds of consumers open to buying batter from retail shelves in the UAE, that number is only 10% in Bengaluru as people prefer to make it at home, he says.

Paying the ‘fresh’ premium: “People [in the GCC] are very health-conscious. They understand the importance of clean labels and are willing to pay a premium,” Musthafa notes. The region’s business-friendly regulatory environment and distributors have also helped accelerate adoption of packaged fresh foods.

But the war is hitting their calculus: “The shipping cost has gone up like 3x for us,” Musthafa notes, adding that while raw material costs such as rice have remained relatively stable, the cost of doing business has gone up significantly since the war began.

Contingency plan in action: To manage war-related volatility, the company activated contingency plans similar to the ones deployed during the pandemic. With the market stabilizing after a brief period of panic buying related to regional geopolitical tensions, iD Fresh plans to ramp up its marketing campaigns across the Gulf this month.

What’s next for iD? “Every year we are increasing our market share by 500 basis points [in the UAE]. Over the next four-five years, we should be able to take it over 50%, if not 70%” Musthafa opines.

Hold the line at 96

The INR may now be undervalued after its sharp depreciation, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra, told Mint in an interview. This comes on the back of an unusually direct intervention from policymakers to intensify efforts to stabilize the currency.

Currency defenses up: The INR touched a record low of 96.96 against the greenback last week before rebounding on heavy RBI intervention, easing oil prices and expectations of tighter monetary policy. The currency strengthened to around 95.40 today, extending a three-day recovery.

Why it matters: The governor’s remarks signal that the RBI is ramping up efforts to contain speculative pressure amid widening balance-of-payments stress. India’s Real Effective Exchange Rate is at a 12-year low of 90.96. Backed by a USD 700 bn forex reserve war chest, the timing offers Gulf capital a major rebate and entry point into Indian assets, insulated by an aggressive central bank backstop — despite USD 23 bn (INR 2.2 tn) exiting Indian equities YTD in 2026. Policymakers are also confronting rising inflation risks with repeated fuel price hikes.

What’s next? The RBI remains ready to do “whatever is required” to ensure orderly currency markets, including deploying a part of India’s roughly USD 700 bn (INR 67 tn) FX reserves, Malhotra said. Next on the lineup is: RBI’s rate decision expected on 5 June. Expect emergency measures — including potential rate hikes or currency swaps — to curb speculation.

Aggressive intervention returns

Bankers estimate the RBI sold between USD 2 bn and USD 3 bn (INR 191 bn-287 bn) on Thursday alone, while state-run lenders continued selling USD aggressively on Friday on behalf of the central bank. Large USD-rupee swap operations aimed at easing pressure in forward markets were also reported. The currency remains vulnerable if the conflict drags on, while expectations of RBI rate hikes are also building.

RBI dividend hits record, misses expectations

The RBI will transfer a record INR 2.8 tn (USD 30 bn) dividend to the government for FY 2026, in a major fiscal buffer for New Delhi but still falling short of market expectations. The payout exceeds last year’s record INR 2.69 tn (USD 28.1 bn), though economists had anticipated a transfer closer to INR 3 tn (USD 31.3 bn).

Fiscal pressure intensifies: The smaller-than-expected surplus comes as soaring oil prices linked to the war strain India’s public finances. Higher energy subsidies and rising import costs are threatening the government’s fiscal deficit target of 4.3% of GDP. The deficit could widen to 4.6% if crude prices remain elevated, potentially forcing spending cuts and higher borrowing.

Rationed call: The dividend was announced while pressure continues to mount on the INR. To accommodate the record payout, the RBI reduced its contingency risk buffer to 6.5% from 7.5%, even as its balance sheet expanded more than 20% in FY 2026.

From Rubio’s four-day India visit

India and the US are tightening their diplomatic embrace as the Gulf conflict grinds on. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio met India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar on Saturday to discuss the Middle East conflict, maritime security, energy supplies and trade, according to a joint ministerial briefing. The meeting comes as Washington signaled movement on a possible agreement with Iran to end the war and open the Strait of Hormuz.

Marco Rubio began his four day visit to India on Saturday which will conclude with tomorrow's Quad foreign ministers’ meeting — a multilateral framework between India, Japan, US, and Australia to counter China. Rubio met Prime Minister Modi on his arrival, however, both sides were tight-lipped about the outcomes of that meeting.

The US and its Gulf partners have made progress on a framework to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Rubio noted, hinting that there could be “good news.” However, he cautioned that any final settlement still hinges on Iranian acceptance and follow-through.

The Hormuz track: “We share as a strategic value the fact that no international waterway, no international airspace should ever be used or nationalized by any country in the world and that should never be accepted as a new normal,” Rubio said.

India’s line — walking the diplomatic tightrope: Jaishankar framed New Delhi’s approach to the Iran war as a non-zero-sum game. With strong strategic ties to the US, Israel, Iran, and the broader Gulf, India has direct equities tied up in the conflict. “For us, the challenge in this situation is how to maintain all these relationships, how to protect our equities, how to advance our interests,” Jaishankar explained. He highlighted India’s core priorities: protecting these diplomatic relations, advancing peace initiatives, lowering energy prices, and ensuring safe maritime commerce.

Energy security meets trade: The ongoing Gulf crisis is actively accelerating India’s push to diversify its fuel sources, drawing it closer to the US. Jaishankar emphasized that securing accessible and affordable energy for India's 1.4 bn citizens remains paramount, noting that the US has firmly emerged as a crucial and reliable energy supplier for the country. Beyond energy, the two ministers also discussed finalizing an interim reciprocal trade agreement, setting the stage for a broader bilateral trade pact in the future.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Adani Total Gas names Sanjay Pandita as CEO

Adani Total Gas named Sanjay Pandita as its new CEO, as part of its succession planning exercise, as per an exchange filing. Pandita has more than 25 years of experience across various energy segments. He has previously held leadership roles at Mahanagar Gas, Gujarat Gas and Nayara Energy. The company also redesignated CEO Suresh P. Manglani as executive director.

What Kevin Warsh’s “reform-oriented” Fed means for us

Kevin Warsh’s response to being sworn in as the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve on Friday was direct. He will lead a reform-oriented Federal Reserve “escaping static frameworks and models.”

What does this mean for our neck of the woods? Whatever framework Warsh constructs over his first 90 days will be the framework GCC monetary authorities operate within, irrespective of regional fiscal needs. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and Oman peg their currencies to the greenback, which means SAMA, CBUAE, QCB, CBB, and CBO will import Warsh’s policy stance with no domestic mediation.

A complicated starting point: Warsh has explicitly told the market the set of assumptions made during Jerome Powell’s Fed are about to change, and the starting conditions complicate everything. April CPI came in at 3.8% — a three-year high. Mortgage rates climbed to a nine-month high. JPMorgan now forecasts rates will likely remain unchanged until mid-2027, with hikes more likely than cuts. Bank of America has pushed its first-cut forecast to 2H 2027.

The tension was visible in the East Room on Friday: Trump pressed a growth-first policy, and Warsh invoked central bank independence and price stability in the same set of remarks. A “reform-oriented” Warsh Fed could move policy faster in either direction than Powell’s framework allowed, which means EM importer treasuries and external financing teams all need to rebuild their 18-24 month assumptions around a framework that hasn’t been disclosed yet.

For GCC sovereign funds, the equation runs differently. PIF cut its international allocation target from 30% to 20% in April specifically to reduce exposure to US monetary policy transmission. The Warsh transition vindicates that swing, but only if the framework shift produces tighter conditions.

A different playbook: If Warsh delivers what Trump wants and rates start moving, GCC SWFs that pulled capital home over the last six months will be reading a different playbook than the one they positioned for Aramco and Adnoc’s war windfalls compound under tight rates. The non-oil credit cycle needed for UAE and Saudi industrial diversification requires the opposite.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asia-Pacific markets were up in early trading this morning, led by Japan’s Nikkei, which soared to record highs as a potential end to the regional war reignited investor appetite. South Korea and Hong Kong are closed today. US markets, too, will be closed today in observance of Memorial Day.

Sensex	76,332	+1.2% (YTD: -10.4%)
NIFTY 50	23,983	+1.1% (YTD: -8.2%)
ADX	9,744	+0.8% (YTD: -2.4%)
DFM	5,825	+2.3% (YTD: -3.6%)
Tadawul	11,027	+0.3% (YTD: +5.1%)
EGX30	52,614	-0.4% (YTD: +25.7%)
Boursa Kuwait	8,647	+0.01% (YTD: +4.1%)
QSE	10,652	-0.5% (YTD: -1.03%)
S&P 500	7,473	+0.3% (YTD: +9.1%)
FTSE 100	10,466	+0.2% (YTD: +5.3%)
Euro Stoxx 50	6,101	+1.3% (YTD: +5.3%)
Brent crude	USD 98	-4.8%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 2.8	-1.03%
Gold	USD 4,599	+0.9%
BTC	USD 77,534	+0.7%

The values in the table above are listed according to the market position as of 3:30pm IST / 2pm GST.

CALENDAR

MAY

27 May (Wednesday): Eid Al-Adha.

JUNE

15-17 June (Monday-Wednesday): Prime Minister Narendra Modi to attend G7 Summit in Evian, France.

18-21 June (Thursday-Sunday): Bharat Buildcon, Yashobhoomi, Dwarka, Delhi.

24-25 June (Wednesday-Thursday): India Homeland Security Expo, Bharat Mandapam, Pragati Maidan, New Delhi.

26 June (Friday): Muharram.

Signposted to happen sometime in 1H 2026:

Signing of India-Qatar FreeTrade Agreement (Details yet to be announced);
India-EU Trade and Technology Council Ministerial Meeting, Brussels, Belgium;
India to host the Brics Summit.

JULY

1-3 July (Wednesday-Friday): Seafood Expo Bharat, Chennai Trade Centre, Chennai.

3-4 July (Friday-Saturday): Rail & Transit Expo (RailTrans), Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi

3-4 July (Friday-Saturday): SOMS International Exhibition & Conference, Gandhinagar, Gujarat.

8-10 July (Wednesday-Friday): India Energy Storage Week, New Delhi.

14-17 July (Tuesday-Friday) Bharat Tex, New Delhi.

22-24 July (Wednesday-Friday): Rail & Metro Technology Conclave, Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi.

AUGUST

15 August (Saturday): Independence Day.

26 August (Wednesday): Prophet Mohammad’s Birthday.

SEPTEMBER

1-3 September (Tuesday-Thursday): India Energy Week, Dwarka, New Delhi.

1-6 September (Monday-Saturday): Dubai Fashion Week, Dubai Design District.

7 September (Sunday) Opec+ meet to discuss production policy for October.

7-9 September (Monday-Wednesday): iPHEX 2026 International Pharmaceutical Exhibition, Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi.

8-11 September (Tuesday-Friday): Global Fintech Fest, Mumbai.

9 September (Tuesday): Envision 2025, Atlantis, The Royal, Dubai.

17-19 September (Thursday-Saturday) : Semicon India Conference, Yashobhoomi, Delhi.

OCTOBER

2 October (Friday): Gandhi Jayanti (Mahatma Gandhi’s Birthday).

20 October (Tuesday): Dussehra.

NOVEMBER

24 November (Tuesday): Guru Nanak Jayanti.

DECEMBER

8-11 December (Tuesday-Thursday), Expand North Star, Dubai.

25 December (Friday): Christmas Day.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2H 2026:

Monsoon Session of Parliament is expected to be held in July/August in New Delhi (TBA);
Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting for the September cycle (TBA);
India Mobile Congress will likely be held in October in New Delhi (TBA).

JANUARY 2027

30 January-3 February (Saturday-Wednesday): Printpack India, India Expo Centre, Greater Noida (Delhi NCR).

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Fourth fuel hike in India

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Emirates NBD to launch open offer for RBL Bank stake