Modi is heading to Abu Dhabi after weeks of absorbing Iran crisis at home

Prime Minister Narendra Modi will begin a five-nation tour on Friday, 15 May, starting with the UAE, before travelling to the Netherlands, Sweden, Norway, and Italy, a foreign ministry statement reads. The UAE is the only Gulf stop — no Riyadh — and the visit comes as higher oil prices, shipping disruption, and pressure on India's FX buffers turn the Middle East crisis into a domestic macro problem. The INR closed at a record low of 95.64 per USD yesterday.

MEANWHILE- Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is expected in Delhi on 14-15 May for the Brics Foreign Ministers' meeting and is expected to call on Modi before he flies to Abu Dhabi, The Hindu reports. India is hosting Tehran 24 hours before Modi meets UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, after tensions between Iran and the UAE escalated over the Fujairah oil facility strike. The sequencing is doing work: Delhi wants both capitals to know it is being heard before either is asked for anything.

Why it matters: The question isn’t whether the UAE will extend a hand on energy cooperation, but more about whether Abu Dhabi will move on Adnoc supply continuity through Hormuz disruption and bilateral payment mechanisms. Thirteen Indian-flagged vessels and 340 seafarers are currently stuck in the strait, and India has been pushing INR-AED settlement for two years, with the FX picture now making the issue urgent.

Why not Saudi? Either Riyadh is too publicly tied to the Iran confrontation for Modi to visit without taking a position, or Delhi has already asked and been told no.

The European leg also has an energy subtext. Norway brings gas, the Netherlands hosts Europe's LNG hub, and Italy sits on Mediterranean energy routing through its North Africa gas ties. While diversification is the through-line, the UAE is the only stop where the crisis management questions actually have a hope of being answered — it’s the only stop where India still has live optionality on Gulf supply.

What's next: Modi departs Friday, and RBI weekly FX reserves data lands the same day. We’ll be watching what Araghchi takes away from the Brics meeting — Delhi rarely hosts the Iranian foreign minister and the Emirati president in the same week by chance.

REMEMBER- Modi's last UAE visit produced the Cepa framework that now anchors bilateral trade at USD 84 bn. This week's visit is the first time the framework is being tested under crisis conditions.

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