Abu Dhabi’s biggest Adani wager

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS AFTERNOON: UAE’s new banking rules could slow Indian lenders’ NRI deposit push; BoB settles NMC litigation for USD 600 mn

Good afternoon, friends and happy FRIDAY.

Abu Dhabi is making its biggest bet yet on the Adani Group. International Holding Company’s mining arm and Adani Enterprises are setting up an INR 1.08 tn (USD 11.5 bn) aluminium plant — India’s largest-ever foreign investment in metals and IHC’s biggest single commitment to Adani.

Oman India Fertiliser Company priced its USD 678 mn IPO at the top of its range, pulling in demand worth nearly 18 times the shares on offer.

On the energy front, MENA barrels are still lagging behind: Indian refiners imported a record 4.9 mn bbl/d of crude last month, and more than half of it was Russian. Even as the Strait reopens, Gulf oil is yet to gain its full market share.

UAE rules slow NRI deposit push

The Central bank of the UAE (CBUAE) has tightened rules around facilitative activities for foreign bank representative offices, a move that could slow Indian banks’ efforts to raise USD deposits from UAE-based non-resident Indians (NRIs), Economic Times reports.

The curb covers restricting activities, including documentation support, business facilitation and cross-selling — making it harder for lenders to onboard customers for foreign-currency deposits (FCD). The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) temporarily relaxed norms for fresh three-to-five-year deposits with higher interest rates until 30 September 2026.

FCD allows NRIs to place fixed deposits in foreign currencies, including USD. Indian banks have been offering higher rates on these deposits after the RBI’s temporary relaxation.

Why it matters: The UAE is a key market for the deposit drive because the Gulf is expected to account for more than 70% of FCD inflows. Indian banks have been using their UAE presence to reach out to NRIs after the RBI eased rules to attract foreign-currency deposits.

Operational hurdle: Most Indian banks in the UAE operate through representative offices, which have typically helped with document collection, know-your-customer coordination and liaison with branches in India.

Indian bank settles UAE case

Indian state-owned lender Bank of Baroda (BoB) has agreed to pay INR 57 bn (USD 600 mn) to settle lawsuits tied to UAE’s hospital chain NMC Health, according to a regulatory filing. The bank said the agreement resolves claims brought by the joint administrators of NMC Health, NMC Healthcare and NMC Holding, without any admission of liability or wrongdoing.

Case closed: The settlement relates to insolvency and civil proceedings before the Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM) Court of First Instance and the High Court of Justice of England & Wales. BoB said its liability is limited to the settlement amount, while the remaining terms of the agreement are confidential.

The claims: The case centered on allegations that financing and lending arrangements involving BoB helped facilitate, or failed to detect, activity that concealed NMC’s financial position.

NMC was placed under administration in 2020 after disclosures of bns of USD in undisclosed debt and alleged fraud, making its collapse one of the Gulf’s most closely watched corporate failures.

Air India Express restores MENA network

Back to normal programming: Air India Express has restored its full Middle East network, signaling that the India-Gulf air corridor is back to normal after the Iran war forced widespread suspensions. The carrier restarted Kozhikode-Salalah flights yesterday and Kozhikode-Kuwait today, with Bengaluru-Kuwait resuming tomorrow and frequencies to be added in phases, Zawya reports.

With Muscat-Mangaluru also resuming today, the airline will again serve 13 Gulf destinations and operate around 780 weekly flights between 18 Indian cities and the Middle East. The restored routes rebuild direct links on the workforce corridors that matter most — Kerala-Oman, Kerala-Kuwait, and Bengaluru-Kuwait — that move Indian workforce to the Gulf.

By the numbers: Indian airlines had canceled more than 15.5k Middle East flights since 28 February, affecting over 1.36 mn travelers, according to industry estimates cited by CNBC-TV18.

Services lose steam

India’s services sector expanded at its slowest pace in 17 months in June, even as overseas demand improved from markets including Oman, Qatar, and the UAE, according to the HSBC India Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) (pdf), compiled by S&P Global. The services PMI fell to 57.4 in June from 59.8 in May, but stayed above the 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction.

“External demand held up well as overseas sales stayed robust,” HSBC Chief India Economist Pranjul Bhandari said, adding that price pressures eased as Middle East disruptions began to subside.

Domestic demand cooled: The slowdown came from softer local demand, with total sales rising at the weakest pace since November 2023. Firms cited weaker client interest and tougher market conditions, though some still saw support from competitive pricing, e-commerce activity, customer bookings, and local tourism.

Data point

INR 429 bn (USD 4.5 bn) — That is the institutional investment that India’s real estate sector drew in 1H 2026, up 50% y-o-y and the highest 1H inflow in six years, Fortune India reports, citing Colliers India.

Domestic capital led the inflows, accounting for 57% of the total amount, while the rest was INR 181 bn (USD 1.9 bn) foreign capital. Despite Iran war related concerns around investor sentiment, April-June quarter accounted for much of the increase with investments rising 70% y-o-y.

Market watch

FPI selling of Indian stocks tops USD 29 bn: Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) extended their selling spree of Indian equities in June, albeit at a slower pace, pulling out INR 493.4 bn (USD 5.2 bn), as per National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) data.

While overseas investors continued to buy Indian debt, the sustained equity outflows – one of the longest streaks in recent years – underscore growing caution toward one of the world’s fastest growing emerging markets amid global uncertainty. FPIs invested INR 218 bn (USD 2.3 bn) in debt securities.

What’s driving the exodus: The latest withdrawal has taken the total FPI outflows to INR 2.7 tn (USD 29.4 bn) in 2026 – well beyond last year’s INR 1.6 tn (USD 16.9 bn) amid weak corporate earnings, a depreciating INR and elevated US bond yields. A rotation of global capital toward AI- and technology-led investment opportunities in developed markets has soured the foreign investor sentiment.

The big story abroad

The US economy is sending mixed signals this morning: US hiring cooled sharply in June, with employers adding just 57k jobs against forecasts of 110k. Some economists point to a delayed drag from the Middle East war’s energy shock, and traders have all but priced out a near-term Fed rate hike.

Meanwhile, private credit has seen redemption requests outrun payouts in 2Q 2026, leaving USD 14.5 bn trapped against USD 8.6 bn returned — funds are locking up USD 1.70 for every USD 1 an investor gets back.

And Wall Street closed out 1H 2026 on a high — stocks, bonds and commodities posted their best combined first-half return since 2021, despite a Middle East war, an oil price that doubled then collapsed, and wild swings in Fed rate expectations. The S&P 500 is up c. 9% YTD, while Bloomberg’s survey puts the average year-end target at 7,716 — roughly 3% upside from June 30.

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IHC and Adani partner on USD 11.5 bn aluminium venture

Adani and IHC link up for USD 11.5 bn aluminum play: Adani Enterprises and International Resources Holding (IRH), the mining arm of Abu Dhabi’s International Holding Company (IHC) are planning to set up an INR 1.08 tn (USD 11.5 bn) aluminium manufacturing plant in eastern India, according to a statement.

Adani and IRH have signed an MoU with the Odisha government to develop the project through a 50:50 joint venture. It’s the largest foreign investment India’s metals sector has ever seen — and the biggest single commitment IHC has made to the Adani Group since the pair first partnered in 2022.

Buildout plan: The facility will feature a 4 mn tons per annum (tpa) alumina refinery, a 2 mn tpa aluminum smelter, a 4k MW captive power plant, and a 1 mn tpa downstream manufacturing park. The project will roll out in two phases, with the first phase accounting for roughly USD 7 bn of the investment and the second getting the remaining c.USD 4.7 bn, per the JV statement. The government in Odisha — which holds some of India’s largest bauxite reserves and already accounts for 54% of national aluminium output — will fast-track land, power, and water clearances.

The corridor read: For Abu Dhabi, this deepens a relationship already central to the Adani story. IHC — chaired by the Emirate’s deputy ruler Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan — put USD 2 bn into three Adani companies in 2022. The Abu Dhabi firm said last year it plans to deploy USD 110 bn in India over the next five years across data centers, renewables, nuclear power, and infrastructure.

Why it matters: The Odisha joint venture cements a strategic pivot, channeling UAE capital beyond financial services and listed equities straight into India’s heavy industrial base. For Adani, it rounds out an expanding metals portfolio, while IHC secures a lucrative foothold in a core commodity vital to infrastructure, transport, and manufacturing across the subcontinent.

The commercial logic

This is Adani’s second metals play after its Gujarat copper smelter came online last year, dropping it into a race with metals giants Hindalco and Vedanta.

The demand backdrop: India is currently the world’s second-largest producer and third-largest consumer of aluminum. Despite this, per capita consumption hovers between 3.4-3.9 kg — well below the global average of 8-12 kg. India’s aluminium consumption is projected to rise to 8.5 mn tons by FY 2030 and 28 mn tons by 2047, which would require national capacity to scale to 37 mn tpa, according to a government report.

Logistics for the project would likely run through Adani’s own Dhamra port on the Bay of Bengal, keeping the value chain in-house, according to Economic Times. The port sits on the Bay of Bengal along India’s eastern coast and is owned by Adani’s ports and logistics arm.

Omifco prices USD 678 mn IPO at the top end as investors look past regional tensions

Omifco prices its USD 678 mn IPO at top end: Oman India Fertiliser Company (Omifco) has priced its USD 678 mn listing at OMR 0.156 (USD 0.4) a share, the top of its price range. The listing attracted demand worth OMR 4.7 bn (USD 12.2 bn) — nearly 18 times the shares on offer, Oman’s Financial Services Authority (FSA) said in a statement. The offer was marketed in a price range of OMR 0.146-0.156 a share, valuing the fertilizer producer at about OMR 1.0 bn (USD 2.6 bn).

Institutional investors drive demand: Institutional investors accounted for the bulk of the interest, submitting bids worth around OMR 4.3 bn (USD 11.2 bn), or 24.4 times the shares allocated to the tranche.

The retail segment also saw healthy participation, attracting more than 72k subscribers and bids worth OMR 408 mn (USD 1.1 bn), 3.9 times oversubscribed.

Why it matters: Omifco’s IPO is the first major Omani listing to reach the market following the recent US-Iran conflict, offering an early gauge of investor appetite after weeks of heightened geopolitical uncertainty.

A quarter on the block: The IPO comprises 1.67 bn existing shares, representing 25% of Omifco’s equity, with no fresh shares being issued. The stake sale is being undertaken by existing shareholders — Oman Oil Company (OQ) is offloading 836.1 mn shares, and Indian Farmers Fertiliser Cooperative (Iffc) and Krishak Bharati Cooperative (KBC) are parting with 418.1 mn shares each.

Before the listing OQ held 50% stake in the firm while IFFC and KBC owned 25% each. The company manufactures ammonia and urea in Oman under long-term supply arrangements that make it an important supplier of fertilizers to India.

Who’s advising? Bank Muscat and Societe Generale are acting as joint global coordinators, with Bank Muscat also serving as issue manager for the Shariah-compliant offering. Arqaam Capital and United Securities are the joint bookrunners.

What’s next: Omifco is evaluating the addition of a third ammonia and urea production train at its Sur complex. It is also exploring opportunities in higher-value downstream chemicals and low-carbon ammonia as it looks to diversify its business and align with Oman’s energy transition ambitions (pdf). Trading on the Muscat Stock Exchange is expected to begin on 8 July.

June crude imports show Russia widening its lead over MENA suppliers

Indian refiners imported 4.9 mn bbl/d of crude oil last month, the highest June volume on record, Hindu Businessline reports, citing Kpler data. Russian crude accounted for more than half of the imports, with shipments rising to around 2.6 mn bbl/d from 2.13 mn bbl/d in May, highlighting that Moscow’s barrels remained the mainstay of India’s energy supply despite the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

The Gulf stayed in the mix, but on India’s terms. As we reported last month, refiners had already reduced direct Strait of Hormuz-linked exposure and leaned on alternative routes — including Fujairah in the UAE and Yanbu in Saudi Arabia. However, import volumes remain lower than pre-war levels.

Why it matters: India imports more than 88% of its oil and is the world’s third-largest crude importer and consumer. June imports suggest that Russian crude continues to eat market share of MENA producers even as shipping and supply risks linked to Hormuz have eased. Even as Iranian barrels are on offer for Indian refiners, Kpler does not expect a meaningful return of these barrels in the near term given the sanctions overhang.

What’s next? Even as Russia has maintained its position as the leading oil supplier to India, these imports are made possible by sanction waivers granted by the US administrations. As the global crude supply eases, the US is likely to reimpose sanctions and push Indian buyers back to suppliers closer to home. However, a meaningful pickup won’t happen in the coming weeks as refiners have already covered most crude requirements through the first half of August, Kpler told the daily.

No relief at the pump: India’s Petroleum and Natural Gas Minister Hardeep Singh Puri shot down hopes of cheaper fuel at retail pumps anytime soon, saying that retail fuel prices will come down “only if lower crude prices prove durable”. This will give state-run oil marketing companies time to recover their losses as they purchased crude oil at higher prices in recent months, Hindu reports.

“Refiners are processing crude oil which was bought two or two and a half months back, when the prices were high[...] A fuel price cut can be looked at if oil prices remain at low levels for a sustained period,” Puri told the daily. Brent crude price is hovering around USD 70 / bbl, plunging from a peak of USD 126 / bbl.

Nursing losses: State-owned refiners suffered losses worth INR 748 bn (USD 7.9 bn) during the April-June period, as per government estimates, as they absorbed higher fuel costs instead of fully passing them on to consumers. While India’s biggest private fuel retailer, Nayara Energy, has cut petrol prices, state-owned OMCs are yet to follow suit.

New Delhi is planning to expand its strategic petroleum reserves (SPRs), build larger crude inventories, and deepen supply partnerships after the recent US-Iran war nearly choked its supplies. “I’m not worried about it, but I have to prepare for it,” Puri told Bloomberg.

The government has already set up a committee to study details including potential locations, operating models, and the split between overground and underground storage. The ministry is likely planning five new SPR facilities and has signed a new partnership with Japan on strategic petroleum reserves and energy logistics.

Falling behind: India currently holds about 39 mn bbls in strategic reserves, which is enough to cover roughly eight days of crude imports. In contrast, China holds some 1.4 bn bbls of reserves.

After WhatsApp, India has tightened the screws on Telegram, Signal amid rising cyber fraud cases

India is tightening the screws on global messaging platforms as it tries to police big tech over concerns of user privacy and cyber fraud.

After asking Meta-owned WhatsApp to pause the rollout of its new ‘usernames’ feature, the Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology (MeitY) has sent similar notices to Telegram and Signal, seeking details on whether they offer comparable functionality and how it could affect user safety, PTI reports, citing sources.

The move signals a broader shift in New Delhi’s approach to big tech. Rather than regulating platforms, the government is increasingly seeking to shape product design before rollout — particularly where privacy features could complicate law enforcement or make digital fraud harder to trace.

The concern is scale: WhatsApp and Telegram serve hundreds of mns of Indians, making even small product changes potentially significant from a cybersecurity perspective.

In damage control mode: WhatsApp said that its ‘usernames’ feature is optional and aims to allow users to connect without sharing their phone numbers, mirroring functionality already available on Telegram and Signal.

The concerns come as India grapples with an explosion in online financial fraud. India saw 265.5 mn cyber threats across more than 8 mn endpoints between 2024 October and 2025 September — averaging 505 threats every minute, according to a Seqrite report. Besides, Indians lost at least INR 225 bn (USD 2.6 bn) to cyber fraud in 2025.

For global technology companies, the message is becoming clearer: privacy-enhancing features may improve user experience, but in India they will increasingly face a state check before they reach consumers.

Megadeals are back just as AI rewrites the M&A playbook

Global M&A surged to a record USD 2.8 tn in 1H 2026, up 49% y-o-y, as megadeals swept through markets despite geopolitical turbulence, the Financial Times reports, citing LSEG data. Bain’s midyear M&A outlook also points to a broad rebound, with activity in the first five months of the year putting 2026 on track to become the second-best year for M&A on record.

Bigger, not busier: Just 47 transactions worth more than USD 10 bn accounted for more than USD 1.3 tn — nearly half of global M&A value — while the total number of transactions fell 9% to around 24k, a six-year low, according to LSEG data. Bain similarly found strategic M&A value rose 36% y-o-y while transaction count increased just 2%, suggesting companies are making fewer, but bigger wagers.

Corporates are placing the bets — PE is sitting most of them out. Financial sponsor transaction value fell 9% even as strategic buyers pushed ahead, Bain says — a split that shows corporate acquirers, not buyout firms, are driving the rebound.

EMEA is having a moment: Strategic transaction value across Europe, the Middle East, and Africa is up 77% y-t-d (as of May), powered by large targets in the region, Bain says. Europe has become an M&A hotspot as companies chase consolidation and scale, including the USD 24 bn offer for Altice France and Kone's USD 34.4 bn bid for TK Elevator.

AI is also pushing M&A beyond tech: Technology led all sectors with USD 649 bn of announced transactions in 1H, according to LSEG. Bain points to the proposed NextEra Energy-Dominion Energy merger as an example of how data centers are reshaping acquisition tactics, with utilities looking for the scale needed to build power generation for large-load demand data centers.

The catch? Bain calls it a “winner’s paradox”: Companies are chasing scale and resilience at the same time that AI transformation is becoming impossible to ignore. Or, as the report puts it: “How could we possibly manage an AI transformation alongside, or through, a massive integration program? At the same time, how can we afford not to?”

That means every acquisition thesis now needs an AI lens. Bain says acquirers need to assess how AI changes the target's business model, where synergies can arrive faster, and how much extra cost AI transformation adds to integration. In short: The M&A market is hot again, but integrating acquisitions while reinventing the business for AI may prove the harder task.

What’s next: Bain has global dealmaking on pace to top USD 5.3 tn for the full year — just short of 2021’s record USD 5.6 tn. Whether that pace holds through 2H will say a lot about whether this is a genuine cycle or a megadeal sugar high.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets were mostly in the green this morning, with traders continuing to rotate out of tech stocks. Japan’s Nikkei was up 0.4%, while South Korea’s Kospi rose 1% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was up 1.3%. China’s CSI 300 was also up 0.7%. The only outliers: Taiwan’s benchmark Taiex slid 0.9%, and South Korea’s small-cap Kosdaq fell 1.1%. Meanwhile, US markets are closed tomorrow for the 4 July holiday.

Sensex	77,778	+0.4% (YTD: -8.6%)
NIFTY 50	24,285	+0.4% (YTD: -7.06%)
ADX	9,865	+0.5% (YTD: -1.2%)
DFM	6,023	+0.5% (YTD: -0.3%)
Tadawul	10,826	-0.2% (YTD: +3.2%)
EGX30	50,532	+0.09% (YTD: +20.8%)
Boursa Kuwait	8,955	-0.2% (YTD: +7.8%)
QSE	10,211	-0.7% (YTD: -5.1%)
S&P 500	7,483	+0.0% (YTD: +9.3%)
FTSE 100	10,613	-0.3% (YTD: +6.8%)
Euro Stoxx 50	6,369	+0.1% (YTD: +9.9%)
Brent crude	USD 71	+0.2%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.2	+1.6%
Gold	USD 4,184	+1.4%
BTC	USD 61,580	+0.7%

The values in the table above are listed according to the market position as of 3:30pm IST / 2pm GST.

CALENDAR

JULY

1-3 July (Wednesday-Friday): Seafood Expo Bharat, Chennai Trade Centre, Chennai.

3-4 July (Friday-Saturday): Rail & Transit Expo (RailTrans), Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi

3-4 July (Friday-Saturday): SOMS International Exhibition & Conference, Gandhinagar, Gujarat.

8-10 July (Wednesday-Friday): India Energy Storage Week, New Delhi.

14-17 July (Tuesday-Friday): Bharat Tex, New Delhi.

22-24 July (Wednesday-Friday): Rail & Metro Technology Conclave, Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi.

Dates TBA: Monsoon Session of Parliament, New Delhi.

AUGUST

15 August (Saturday): Independence Day.

26 August (Wednesday): Prophet Mohammad’s Birthday.

SEPTEMBER

1-3 September (Tuesday-Thursday): India Energy Week, Dwarka, New Delhi.

1-6 September (Monday-Saturday): Dubai Fashion Week, Dubai Design District.

7 September (Sunday): Opec+ meet to discuss production policy for October.

7-9 September (Monday-Wednesday): iPHEX 2026 International Pharmaceutical Exhibition, Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi.

8-11 September (Tuesday-Friday): Global Fintech Fest, Mumbai.

9 September (Tuesday): Envision 2025, Atlantis, The Royal, Dubai.

17-19 September (Thursday-Saturday): Semicon India Conference, Yashobhoomi, Delhi.

OCTOBER

2 October (Friday): Gandhi Jayanti (Mahatma Gandhi’s Birthday).

5-7 October (Monday-Wednesday): Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting for the October / September policy cycle.

7-10 October (Wednesday-Saturday): India Mobile Congress, Yashobhoomi, New Delhi.

20 October (Tuesday): Dussehra.

NOVEMBER

24 November (Tuesday): Guru Nanak Jayanti.

DECEMBER

8-11 December (Tuesday-Thursday): Expand North Star, Dubai.

25 December (Friday): Christmas Day.

JANUARY 2027

30 January-3 February (Saturday-Wednesday): Printpack India, India Expo Centre, Greater Noida (Delhi NCR).

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