Megadeals are back just as AI rewrites the M&A playbook

Global M&A surged to a record USD 2.8 tn in 1H 2026, up 49% y-o-y, as megadeals swept through markets despite geopolitical turbulence, the Financial Times reports, citing LSEG data. Bain’s midyear M&A outlook also points to a broad rebound, with activity in the first five months of the year putting 2026 on track to become the second-best year for M&A on record.

Bigger, not busier: Just 47 transactions worth more than USD 10 bn accounted for more than USD 1.3 tn — nearly half of global M&A value — while the total number of transactions fell 9% to around 24k, a six-year low, according to LSEG data. Bain similarly found strategic M&A value rose 36% y-o-y while transaction count increased just 2%, suggesting companies are making fewer, but bigger wagers.

Corporates are placing the bets — PE is sitting most of them out. Financial sponsor transaction value fell 9% even as strategic buyers pushed ahead, Bain says — a split that shows corporate acquirers, not buyout firms, are driving the rebound.

EMEA is having a moment: Strategic transaction value across Europe, the Middle East, and Africa is up 77% y-t-d (as of May), powered by large targets in the region, Bain says. Europe has become an M&A hotspot as companies chase consolidation and scale, including the USD 24 bn offer for Altice France and Kone's USD 34.4 bn bid for TK Elevator.

AI is also pushing M&A beyond tech: Technology led all sectors with USD 649 bn of announced transactions in 1H, according to LSEG. Bain points to the proposed NextEra Energy-Dominion Energy merger as an example of how data centers are reshaping acquisition tactics, with utilities looking for the scale needed to build power generation for large-load demand data centers.

The catch? Bain calls it a “winner’s paradox”: Companies are chasing scale and resilience at the same time that AI transformation is becoming impossible to ignore. Or, as the report puts it: “How could we possibly manage an AI transformation alongside, or through, a massive integration program? At the same time, how can we afford not to?”

That means every acquisition thesis now needs an AI lens. Bain says acquirers need to assess how AI changes the target's business model, where synergies can arrive faster, and how much extra cost AI transformation adds to integration. In short: The M&A market is hot again, but integrating acquisitions while reinventing the business for AI may prove the harder task.

What’s next: Bain has global dealmaking on pace to top USD 5.3 tn for the full year — just short of 2021’s record USD 5.6 tn. Whether that pace holds through 2H will say a lot about whether this is a genuine cycle or a megadeal sugar high.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets were mostly in the green this morning, with traders continuing to rotate out of tech stocks. Japan’s Nikkei was up 0.4%, while South Korea’s Kospi rose 1% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was up 1.3%. China’s CSI 300 was also up 0.7%. The only outliers: Taiwan’s benchmark Taiex slid 0.9%, and South Korea’s small-cap Kosdaq fell 1.1%. Meanwhile, US markets are closed tomorrow for the 4 July holiday.

The values in the table above are listed according to the market position as of 3:30pm IST / 2pm GST.