Good morning, friends, and happy FRIDAY. It’s been an eventful week, capped off with an Iranian attack on the UAE this morning — the second this week — and American strikes on Iranian targets.

In our big story today: Indian software major Zoho is expanding its local-first approach across the Gulf, rolling out its first UAE data center regions in Dubai and Abu Dhabi to meet growing demands for data sovereignty from public sector and regulated enterprise clients.

Plus: Importers are facing a nearly 40% price spike for phosphate fertilizers in a recent tender as the war drives up input costs globally. Also, GCC-based Indians are increasingly rebalancing their portfolios away from real estate and toward Indian equities amid geopolitical uncertainty.

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POLICY — The government of India is planning higher allocation and longer run time for a scheme, which refunds local taxes paid by exporters in a bid to shield business impacted by disruption to trade flows to the Middle East, Reuters reports, citing unnamed sources. The USD 1 bn scheme is close to its end date of 30 September.

What we know: The support program covers over 10k products from agriculture to engineering goods, offering rebates on tax and other levies up to 4% of the product's value. While the government was gradually rolling back the scheme before the war—slashing incentives by 50% in the national budget for the current fiscal year—a heavy drop in exports has prompted the finance and commerce ministries to evaluate increase to incentive rates, an expansion of overall funding, and a five-year extension to the scheme's run time.

Why it matters: The move follows mounting stress on exporters facing elevated logistics costs and disruptions to Gulf shipping routes. India’s merchandise exports fell 7.4% y-o-y in March, with shipments to key markets such as the UAE and Saudi Arabia declining sharply amid the conflict. The proposed extension aligns with broader measures, including export ins. support and emergency credit guarantees announced by the authorities to support business facing the brunt of the war.

FERTILIZER — Traders are offering phosphate fertilizer to India at a price exceeding USD 900 per tonne — nearly 40% higher compared to pre-war prices — in a recent tender issued by state-run Indian Potash Limited, Bloomberg reports. Some 18 companies offered the fertilizer at prices ranging between USD 930 and USD 1.1k per tonne, compared to USD 670 per tonne in February as input costs continue to surge globally.

Why it matters:Inflated prices are primarily driven by surging costs for sulfur, a critical input for phosphate production. India imported USD 420 mn worth of sulfur from the Middle East in 2025, accounting for nearly 66% of its total volume. With half of global sulfur supply originating in the Gulf, India's dependency here is highly concentrated. Benchmark sulfur prices are now at decade-highs, further squeezing downstream fertilizer margins.

Enough suppliers, elevated pricing: The companies offered nearly 2.3 mn tonnes—double the required volume—indicating supplies are adequate. India imports nearly 60% of its phosphate needs and already expects its fertilizer subsidy bill to jump by around 20% this fiscal year. This pressure is compounded with urea prices doubling, suggesting a challenging summer sowing season ahead, particularly for crops like rice, corn, and soybeans.

IN CONTEXT- We previously detailed India’s bundled dependence on the Gulf for its fertilizer imports. Although Moroccan phosphates and Oman’s urea are available, high prices are forcing multiple importers to compete for the limited supply outside disrupted routes by the Iran war.

DIPLOMACY — India’s Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri met UAE Minister of State for International Cooperation Reem Al Hashimy in Abu Dhabi to review the bilateral partnership, discussing trade, investment, technology, and shared concerns over regional stability and the evolving security situation in the Middle East, according to an External Affairs Ministry press release.

During the visit, Misri also met Khaldoon Al Mubarak, MD and CEO of Mubadala Investment Company to explore avenues for collaboration in investment, technology and emerging sectors, in light of the UAE’s expansive role as a key capital partner for India.

Amid turbulence: The visit takes place following Iran’s attack on the UAE’s critical energy and maritime hub, Fujairah, which injured three Indian nationals. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi condemned the attack, reiterating support for the UAE, urging restraint, and calling for safe navigation through key corridors like the Strait of Hormuz.

The big story abroad

The exchange of fire between the US and Iran is dominating front pages, as everyone monitors what this means for an already fragile ceasefire and ongoing negotiations. Iran accused the US of targeting two ships in the strait of Hormuz and attacking civilian areas, while the US said it targeted sites responsible for attacking three US warships.

US President Donald Trump said the ceasefire is still in place and brushed off the strike as a “love tap.” The skirmish came only a few hours after Pakistan said it the countries were close to an agreement that could potentially be reached this weekend, and follows another blip in the ceasefire that saw Iran strike the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone earlier this week.

Also getting plenty of ink: An outbreak of hantavirus on a cruise ship has triggered a rapid search of infected individuals who left the ship, which saw three people die after contracting the virus. The World Health Organization looked to calm nerves quickly by saying the threat of the virus spreading is much lower than covid-19.

And in business news: Wall Street bankers are poised to get even larger bonuses this year, according to Johnson Associates report which estimates a bump of 20% or more depending on the role of the bankers in transactions.

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