THIS AFTERNOON: L&T grabs USD 992 mn contract in Kuwait

Good afternoon, all. We are kicking off the week with a brisk issue, led by Russia’s gains in India’s crude basket in April. Indian refiners are paying a massive war premium to secure Russian crude, pushing Russia’s share of the country’s oil basket to an 11-month high.

In our spotlight, we decode the cracks forming in India’s retail fuel-pricing policy as the Gulf oil shock tests the limits of the government’s hybrid pricing model.

L&T grabs USD 992 mn Kuwait tender

Indian engineering and construction giant Larsen & Toubro (L&T) has locked down a major oil infrastructure mandate in Kuwait. Kuwait’s Central Agency for Public Tenders awarded the company an INR 95 bn (USD 992 mn) contract to deliver new crude storage facilities and critical infrastructure upgrades for the state-run Kuwait Oil Company, Zawya reports.

Regional anchor: The Middle East is already L&T’s largest overseas market, accounting for 40% of its total order book and 34% of revenue in FY 2026. The Kuwait contract adds to that exposure, as Gulf energy, grid, and transport projects remain a key source of work for Indian engineering and construction firms.

Why it matters: The contract underlines L&T’s deeply entrenched role in the GCC’s core upstream and midstream oil and gas ecosystems. It demonstrates that despite broader macroeconomic headwinds, heavy-spending Gulf state businesses are continuously leaning on top-tier Indian engineering firms to execute their long-term, large-ticket energy infrastructure projects.

More woes for IndiGo?

India’s largest carrier, IndiGo, is staring at a bottleneck in its overseas growth strategy, as conflict-driven supply chain snarls look set to delay the delivery of its highly anticipated Airbus A321XLR fleet, Bloomberg reports. The low-cost airline is unlikely to receive nine of the long-range, single-aisle aircraft it expected to induct this year.

The timeline shift: While some deliveries have been pushed back by several months, IndiGo is publicly holding the line, according to the news outlet, stating there is currently no change to its official delivery schedule. The carrier expects to receive its third Airbus A321XLR within days, adding to the two jets already operating on its Athens and Istanbul routes.

Why it matters: The A321XLR is the linchpin of IndiGo’s long-haul international expansion. The narrowbody aircraft allows the carrier to serve point-to-point long-range routes without taking on the heavy capital expenditures and operating costs of widebody jets. Any delay puts the brakes on IndiGo’s overseas network rollout at a time when it is facing record losses due to the Iran war.

Remember, IndiGo reported a net loss of INR 25.4 bn (USD 270 mn) for 4Q FY 2026, as a weaker INR and higher jet fuel costs pushed expenses up 31% y-o-y. It has also cut up to 10% of its scheduled domestic flights for June and July.

Fertilizer sales soar as farmers rush to secure supplies

Disruptions to the global fertilizer trade have sparked an unexpected demand for fertilizers across India’s agricultural heartland, potentially destabilizing the government’s highly touted subsidy policy. Farmers rushed to build safety buffers through March and April as war-related anxieties spilled into wholesale markets, Hindu Businessline reports.

Agri states panic: The spike was pronounced in major agricultural states, including Haryana, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Karnataka. In Haryana, urea sales jumped 80% y-o-y to 170k tons, while diammonium phosphate (DAP) sales more than doubled to 40k tons.

The war-driven buying spree shows how demand-management tools are overwhelmed during periods of supply anxiety. Even states that recorded stable or declining urea consumption witnessed sharp increases in DAP purchases. Balancing fertilizer subsidy reform with food-security concerns continues to be a challenge when global supply chains are disrupted and trigger precautionary buying.

Why it matters: Just last month, state-run Indian Potash Ltdsecured over 400k tons of DAP from Saudi Arabian suppliers — including Maaden and VB Venture — in a single tender at steep prices. India is the world’s largest urea importer, and its fiscal deficit is highly sensitive to fertilizer subsidy costs.

The big story abroad

Iran's first strike on Israel since the April ceasefire and Israel’s retaliatory salvo are leading today’s news cycle. The Israeli military claims to have intercepted all the missiles and no casualties have been reported. The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps called the barrage retaliation for Tel Aviv’s strikes on Lebanon, claiming the Israeli attacks violated ceasefire terms, and vowed to continue strikes if hostilities resume. Israel fired back by targeting western and central Iran.

Israel must accept a truce, Trump says: US President Donald Trump said that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “won’t have any choice” but to accept any resolution Washington closes with Tehran. In a phone call with Netanyahu, Trump pressed the Israeli leader not to retaliate. “Israel had its strike, and Iran had its strike. We don't need another one,” Trump was quoted as saying.

Speaking of which: Trump has publicly urged Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh to cut interest rates, escalating tensions just before Warsh’s inaugural policy meeting. Trump’s demands run counter to current market expectations, which are inclined toward higher borrowing costs following a surge in US employment numbers.

A new and improved ChatGPT: OpenAI’s biggest revamp since its launch of ChatGPT will involve repositioning the chatbot into a “superapp,” which will merge coding tools and AI agents. The changes come as part of a broader evolution at the AI startup, whereby it will shift resources to secure lucrative customers and compete more aggressively with rival Anthropic.

Meanwhile, a high stakes battle unfolds in Italy’s banking sector: Italian banking giants Intesa Sanpaolo and BPER Banca teamed up to structure a joint counter-proposal to take over Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MPS) — considered to be the world’s oldest bank. The move came hours after Banco BPM floated an EUR 50 bn tie-up with MPS.

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