Good morning, wonderful people. We start the week with a brisk read — but our lead story lands with far more weight: Mubadala Energy is backing a major US LNG project as the UAE doubles down on US gas infrastructure. Plus: regional disruptions might have slightly simmered down, but their impact on 1Q earnings is still rippling through.

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The big logistics story abroad

Is Boeing cleared to re-enter China’s skies? US planemaker Boeing is set to secure its first major China order in nearly a decade after US President Donald Trump announced that Beijing would acquire 200 jets — with the possibility to expand the package to as many as 750 aircraft. Boeing described the order as an “initial commitment,” while China has yet to finalize the aircraft mix, delivery time, and final commercial terms.

The narrowbody politics: The order is expected to include 737 and 777 aircraft powered by GE Aerospace engines, giving Boeing a foothold back into a market it had effectively lost ground in after the 737 Max crisis and delivery freezes.

Why it matters: Boeing’s latest market outlook (pdf) projects China’s fleet will nearly double over the next 20 years to around 9.8k aircraft, making access to Chinese airlines central to any long-term recovery in its delivery timeline. The agreement also comes as Airbus and Chinese planemaker Comac intensify competition for narrowbody demand, giving Boeing a renewed foothold in a vital market.

Our take? Buying Boeing, buying time. The Boeing order doesn’t mean China is slowing its national planemaker agenda but rather a pragmatic hedge — a way to reset commercial ties with Washington, bridge near-term capacity needs for its airlines, and keep the US aerospace supply chain engaged while Comac’s C919 scales gradually.

Watch this space

ZONES — Egypt’s Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty is pushing to turn the Suez Canal Economic Zone (SCZone) into a global commodities hub on multiple fronts. On the sidelines of the Brics foreign ministers’ meeting in New Delhi, the minister called on his Brazilian counterpart to take concrete steps toward a proposed logistics zone for grain silos in the SCZone. He separately lobbied the Indian commerce minister to utilize the zone as a manufacturing gateway for exports targeting Arab, African, and European markets.

The pattern: We’ve been tracking the Brazilian hub since 2024, when seven Brazilian investors began feasibility studies for a logistics zone handling corn, soybeans, and sugar for regional re-export. The pitch to Brazil mirrors the playbook Egypt is running with Russia. The two nations are exploring a grain and energy hub designed to help Russia work around Western sanctions while locking in Egypt’s access to discounted wheat, following talks between Abdelatty and Russian President Vladimir Putin earlier this year.

MARITIME — China gets the Hormuz greenlight — for now: Iran has reportedly started allowing selected Chinese vessels to transit the Strait of Hormuz following an understanding on shipping protocols between Tehran and Beijing. A Chinese supertanker was recently reported to have cleared the strait carrying approximately 2 mn barrels of Iraqi crude. Chinese-linked vessels had already tested transit through the waterway during the disruption, while other operators faced delays, diversions, and case-by-case assessments.

A strait of exceptions: Access through Hormuz is increasingly being shaped by identity, flagging choices, cargo sensitivity, and bilateral tolerance.

China is only part of the flow: Iran is also reportedly allowing more vessels to pass through the strait under new IRGC Navy-coordinated protocols, with state media saying more than 30 vessels have crossed since the system was introduced — though it didn’t specify whether they were all Chinese.

Market watch

Oil prices rose this morning after an attack near a UAE nuclear site deepened tensions and dimmed ceasefire hopes, Reuters reports. Brent crude futures jumped USD 2.03 to trade at USD 112 / bbl by 02.20 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained USD 2.31 to USD 107.73 / bbl.

The Baltic Index loses momentum: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — fell 1.4% to 3,151 points on Friday. The capesize slipped 2.3%% to 5,316 points, while the panamax index rose 0.7% to 2,521. The smaller supramax was up 0.1% to 1,522 points.

The Drewry World Container Index rose 12% at USD 2,553 per 40-ft container last week, according to the latest index readings. The lift came as transpacific and Asia-Europe rates moved higher, with Shanghai-Genoa increasing 20%, Shanghai-New York 14%, and Shanghai-Los Angeles 10%. The surge was supported by firmer FAK (Freight All Kinds) rates, capacity cuts, tighter vessel space, and earlier cargo bookings linked to disruption risk around the US and Israel-Iran conflict. Rates are expected to further increase next week.

Data point

14.6 mn bbl / d — that was the average volume of oil flows through Hormuz in 1Q, down from 20.4 mn bbl / d in the same period last year. Crude and condensate flows accounted for 10.7 mn bbl / d, while petroleum products stood at 3.9 mn bbl / d. However, the US Energy Information Administration noted that AIS-based vessel tracking has become especially unreliable since late February.

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