More talks on fuel efficiency, aircraft orders, and connectivity agreements at IATA AGM

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What we're tracking today

TODAY: IATA AGM wraps in Dubai + UAE and Qatar’s PMIs are in

Good morning, ladies and gents. It’s a relatively calm news day on the regional logistics front, but we have some final updates from the IATA’s Annual General Meeting in Dubai and

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Work on Al Maktoum International Airport’s new passenger terminal is set to begin in the coming two to three weeks, Zawya Projects writes, citing a Reuters report. The first phase of the project — capable of handling 150 mn passengers — is likely to conclude within the coming 10 years, according to Dubai Civil Aviation Authority Chair Sheikh Ahmed bin Saeed Al Maktoum.

Refresher: Dubai ruler Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum approved the design plan for the USD 35 bn new passenger terminal at Al Maktoum International Airport in April. The expanded airport is set to be the world’s largest, hosting over 260 mn passengers, handling 12 mn tons of annual cargo, accommodating around 400 aircraft gates, and featuring five parallel runways.

#2- Could Oman be Russia's new trade hot spot? Russia’s burgeoning economic ties with Oman will be thrust into the spotlight at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum as the GCC state is recognized with the guest country award, Bloomberg reports. Russia is benefiting from Oman’s long standing political neutrality as it doubles down on trade and investment links with the country. On the flip side, Dubai has been falling out of favor with Russian business interests on the back of rising living costs and increased pressure from local banks to maintain compliance with US sanctions.

What have Oman + Russia been up to? Recent partnerships with Russia have focused on commodities with a state-owned Omani fund recently snapping up a stake in Moscow-based commodities trader Demetra Holding, Bloomberg writes. The pair have also collaborated in the mining and banking sectors, and there has been a recent uptick in ship-to-ship transfers of Russian oil off of Oman’s coast.

IN OTHER NEWS- Morocco’s Nador is emerging as the next hotspot for cargo switching by Russian oil traders, Bloomberg reports citing ship tracking data. Drills by Greece’s navy have been taking place since early May, effectively detering the practice in the Laconian Gulf. The new focal point off Nador is close to the Spanish enclave of Melilla, making it likely that Spain will take steps to block the practice as it had done in the past when another Spanish enclave, Ceuta, emerged as a popular site for the transfers. Cargo swapping is a common practice applied by traders of Russian oil to evade sanctions and a G7-mandated USD 60 price cap, Bloomberg explained.

Remember: Experts cited parallel trade as a key reason why the G7 price cap has shown limited success in deterring non-compliant oil trades since its roll out two years ago.

MARKET WATCH-

#1- Oil price dipped to near four month lows in early trading this morning in response to Opec+’s decision to gradually phase out production cuts, Reuters reports. Brent crude futures ticked up to USD 77.56 a barrel by 03.07 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) remained steady at USD 73.25, the newswire said. Both contracts fell nearly USD 1 yesterday to the lowest levels since early February.

#2- Baltic index slumps, ending three session streak: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — dipped 0.39% at 1,808 points on Monday, weighed down by lower rates across the board, Reuters reports. Capesize was down 0.14% to 2,816 points while panamax fell 0.7% to 1,682 points, marking its lowest level since 11 April. Meanwhile, the smaller supramax segment ticked down 0.47% at 1,272 points, the newswire says.

#3- Russian crude exports dipped by some 400k barrels per day (bpd) in May as the Opec+ member sought to compensate for overproduction, Bloomberg reports. The country’s exports in April were 120k bpd above a target designated for the month, while May’s exports were 170k bpd below another target. The lower volumes indicate that Russia is honoring a pledge to cut back production to redress exceeding its quota for April, the outlet said. Russia attributed April’s excess to “technicalities,” the outlet explained.

DATA POINTS-

#1- GCC region tops DCC exports in 1Q 2024: The GCC accounted for 55.5% of Dubai Chamber of Commerce (DCC) total exports and re-exports, amounting to AED 40.80 bn (USD 11.11 bn) in 1Q 2024, according to a press release. Non-GCC Middle Eastern countries came in second, accounting for 22.6% of DCC exports and re-exports at AED 16.6 bn. Meanwhile African markets came in third, accounting for 9.7% of total exports at AED 7.1 bn, the statement said.

#2- The King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam set a new record for monthly handling capacity in May, with 291.6 standard containers, the Ports Authority (Mawani) said in a release. The figure surpasses the port’s March record by some 2k TEUs.

IN CONTEXT- Congestion in King Abdulaziz Port came after most Jeddah-bound maritime traffic was directed to the port in Dammam in reaction to ongoing attacks on shipping in the Red Sea. The crisis saw container handling at Dammam first growing by 41.3% y-o-y in February to reach the then-record high of 235.8k TEUs.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

Lebanon will host the East Med Maritime Conference on Thursday, 27 June in Beirut. The event will gather industry leaders to discuss the latest developments in shipping, maritime, and offshore industries to discuss industry innovations, alternative fuels, and decarbonizing emissions in the maritime sector and ports.

Turkey will host the ACI Europe Annual Congress on Tuesday, 2 July to Thursday, 4 July in Istanbul. The event will bring together 500 C-level airport executives, as well representatives from businesses engaged with airports, airlines, aircraft manufacturers, and other stakeholders. The event will highlight discussions on the current state of the airport industry, geopolitics, the Turkish market, resilience, sustainability, and the diversification of revenues.

Check out our full calendar at the bottom of this email for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events and news triggers.

IATA AGM wraps with more talks on fuel efficiency, aircraft orders, and connectivity agreements

More IATA news from Dubai: The World Air Transport Summit and International Air Transport Association (IATA) wrapped its Annual General Meeting (AGM) and the World Air Transport Summit yesterday in Dubai and we have a roundup of updates from the final day.

BIG FUEL AGENDAS-

The UAE is looking to position itself as a regional hub for SAF with aims to produce 700 mn liters of SAF annually by 2030, Wam reports, citing statements by the UAE’s Economy Minister Abdullah bin Touq. The SAF volumes are anticipated to curb some 4.8 mn tonnes of CO2 emissions. The initiative comes as part of the UAE’s recently launched National Sustainable Aviation Fuel Roadmap

IATA also launched an advanced analytics solution to optimize fuel consumption on flights, according to a press release. The IATA FuelIS tool allows carriers to benchmark fuel efficiency of different aircraft types and fuel quantities at landing to industry standards by using aggregated and anonymized flight and fuel data, the statement said. The tool enables airlines to make operational and strategic adjustments to optimize fuel use, cut fuel costs, and boost environmental performance.

MORE ORDERS IN THE PIPELINE-

Budget airline and Saudia subsidiary Flyadeal could purchase between 10 and 20 wide-body jets in an order worth up to USD 5 bn as it looks to expand its passenger capacity, CEO Steven Greenway tells Reuters. The airline is still “in the early stages” of mulling the order and is comparing the Boeing 787 and Airbus A330ne, with no formal competition between the aircraft manufacturers yet.

Does Flyadeal need the excess capacity? Although budget airlines have historically struggled with operating large aircrafts Greenway dismissed these concerns, highlighting the potential for increased seat capacity for popular destinations such as Dubai. The wide-body jets can seat up to 400 passengers in an all-economy configuration, almost twice the capacity of Flyadeal’s current 240-seater planes.

The order is part of Flyadeal’s long-term vision, which includes securing a minimum of 10 wide-body aircraft within the next 3-5 years, Greenway said.

Saudia placed an order for 105 Airbus narrow-bodies last month, marking the largest aircraft order in its history. Saudia is set to receive 54 A321neo, while Flyadeal will get 12 A320neo and 39 A321neo.

BOOSTING CONNECTIVITY-

PIF-owned Riyadh Air has secured two new Asian partnerships, signing two separate MoUs with Air China and with Singapore Airlines on the sidelines of the International Air Transport Association (IATA) Annual General Meeting (AGM) in Dubai, it said in two separate statements here and here. The airline has been looking to expand its partnership network.

Etihad airways signed an MoU with Royal Air Maroc to boost commercial and operational cooperation, according to a press release. The agreement promises to bolster cooperation between both airlines, including on codeshare arrangements to cover more domestic routes in Morocco and Africa, developing a frequent flier program, and strengthening cooperation on ground handling, maintenance and engineering.

SAFETY AND SCHEDULING COMMITMENTS-

40 airlines inked an agreement to provide scheduling data to IATA’s Schedule Data Exchange Program which is slated to kick off in March 2025, according to a press release. The program — open to both IATA and non-IATA member carriers — collects schedules, capacity, and minimum connecting time used in IATA products and services that support network development, revenue management, slot coordination, and interline agreements. Airlines will have access to schedule data on the platform on a “give-to-get” basis. An additional 40 carriers are lined up to join the initiative at a later date.

73 airline CEOs have committed to the IATA Safety Leadership Charter which looks to promote a “positive safety culture” within companies, according to a press release. The charter was developed in consultation with IATA and the global aviation community, and looks to promote leadership principles to boost safety in the aviation sector.

Non-oil business activity continued to expand in UAE and Qatar in May

Purchasing Manager Indices (PMI) tracking non-energy sectors in the UAE and Qatar continued to expand in May. Headline figures for both GCC states came above the 50.0 cut off for growth. Qatar remained in expansion amid increases in output, new orders, and demand picking up, while the UAE remained stagnant from April’s figure as firms continued to recover after the storm.

REMEMBER- The all-important 50.0 mark is the threshold separating contraction from growth. Anything above 50 denotes expansion, while anything below indicates contraction.

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The UAE’s non-oil business activity faced a record uplift in outstanding business levels in May, as robust sales pipelines and the lingering impact from April’s flood put pressures on business capacity, according to S&P Global’s PMI (pdf). The index remained flat at 55.3 in May, indicating a strong private sector performance and improved supply chains following last month's disruption.

Demand perked up in May after companies faced a slow down in April, with several firms citing improvements in client spending and tourism, according to the report. Some firms reported slowly recovering sales volumes with a rise in total new orders from last month at the second-weakest pace since August 2023, while others firms reported operations were still on hold.

Business activity growth softened to a 16-month-low with firms reporting continued disrupted operations due to April’s storm, with backlogs of work staying on a steep upward trajectory — rising at the fastest pace since the survey began in 2009. The Red Sea crisis also played a part in causing additional administrative challenges for firms, the report notes. Despite this, vendors were able to trim their delivery times more quickly than April.

Backlogs grew in May as firms were recovering from flooding: The UAE continued to face pressures on business capacity in May, as the headline figure signaled the largest-ever increase in backlogs of work, S&P Global Market Intelligence Senior Economist David Owen said. The figure suggests that firms have a lot of work to do to get on top of their workloads, including rebuilding their output levels, boosting inventories, and hiring, Owen said.

Purchasing expenses also grew, hitting a peak since last November, on the back of a robust sales pipeline, and output requirements. Some firms reported having to restock items that were damaged during the floods. Higher input spending placed pressure on prices, as rising fuel prices and higher wages also contributed to stronger inflation, with the rate of pay growth the quickest in six years. Increased prices were passed onto clients as higher input costs, which although marginal — was the fastest recorded in three years.

Staffing + outlook: Staffing levels picked up to a three-month high as businesses took on additional labor in May, and business confidence towards future output strengthened on the back of hopes of more stable economic conditions, higher sales, greater earnings, and marketing activity.

Over in Qatar: Qatar’s non-energy private sector gained momentum in May, with output and new orders increasing at their fastest since 3Q 2023, according to Qatar Financial Centre’s (QFC) PMI (pdf). The headline figure tracked at 53.6 in May, up from April’s 52.0, signaling the strongest improvement in business conditions since last September, and placing it above its long-run trend level of 52.3. The 1.6 bump in the headline figure from last month was among the most significant noted in the past two years.

A good month for demand + business activity: Demand picked up in May, with new work expanding at its sharpest rate in eight months and above the long run trend. Firms attributed the gains to reeling in new clients through reputations for high-quality products and services. New business activity also expanded, led by the wholesale and retail sectors. Despite growing business, companies were able to reduce backlogs during the month.

Growth in output and new orders also saw hiring ramp up, which was also attributed to efforts to speed up deliveries and uptake staff experienced in new technologies. Demand for inputs was also boosted during the month as purchasing activity increased at its second-fastest rate in ten months. Lead times also trimmed and continued to improve as firms doubled down on closer relationships with suppliers. Faster output also saw input stocks pared down for the fifth time in six months.

Cost pressures were subdued: Costs plateaued as a decline in average purchase prices offset higher wages. Charges for goods and services gained for the second time in the previous seven months, but at a slower rate than a previous uptick seen in March.

Qatari businesses remained optimistic for the next twelve months, with respondents attributing the positive outlook to development plans, marketing drives, and the introduction of new competitive products and services.

How did other MENA countries shape up in May? PMI figures tracking non-energy sectors in Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait were broadly positive in May. Egypt’s headline figure jumped to its highest in nearly three years, ramping up to 49.6 in May and up from 47.4 in April as non-oil activity began to stabilize. Kuwait’s PMI figure rose to 52.4 in May from 51.5 in April. While KSA inched down to 56.4 in May compared to April’s 57.0, with the report noting stiffer competition and slowing demand.

Stay tuned for coverage of Lebanon’s PMI report tomorrow.

UAE + Philippines discuss potential CEPA to expand trade links

UAE, Philippines talk bolstering cooperation, inking CEPA: Foreign Affairs Minister Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan met with Filipino President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. yesterday at the Malacañang Palace in Manila, Wam reports. The meeting focused on strengthening bilateral cooperation between the two countries and expanding trade and investment ties through establishing a trade and economic partnership agreement. The two countries agreed on a scope for negotiations for a trade agreement last December.

Alibaba to help display Saudi products on its platform +

DECARBONIZATION-

Sohar port debuts biofuel bunkering in tugboat operations: Oman’s Sohar port will start using biofuel bunkering in tugboat operations after experimenting with B20 — an 80% diesel and 20% biofuel mix — at Tug Sohar, according to a statement. The port aims to expand the project to include locomotives by July, the statement adds. The use of biofuel will help the company lower its greenhouse gas emissions towards an initial target of 17%, which is in line with Oman’s net zero 2050 goal.

TRADE-

Saudi products to access global markets through Alibaba: The Saudi Export Development Authority (Saudi Exports) has inked an agreement with Chinese e-commerce company Alibaba to offer Saudi products on the platform, expanding their reach to global markets, SPA reports. Alibaba will designate a section of its platform to Saudi companies, making it easier for shoppers looking for Saudi products.

OTHER STORIES WORTH KNOWING THIS MORNING-

Saudia Cargo inks MoU with Red Sea Global: Saudia Cargo has signed an MoU with Red Sea Global to enhance cargo shipping services, accelerate the development of key projects, and establish links between the Red Sea Airport and upwards of 800 global air cargo destinations. (Statement)

Maersk updates earnings guidance once again

Maersk has upgraded its full-year earnings guidance for 2024 on the back of strong container market demand and Red Sea disruptions, according to a press release. “While demand for container transport remains strong, supply has been negatively impacted by missed sailings, longer routes, equipment shortages, and delays leading to increased congestion across several key ports in Asia and the Middle East,” CEO Vincent Clerc said. This trend is steadily gaining momentum and is anticipated to bolster financial results in the latter half of 2024. The outfit is now expecting an underlying EBITDA of USD 7 to USD 9 bn, up from its previous forecast of USD 4 to USD 6 bn, the statement says.

This is the second time in nearly a month Maersk has upgraded its forecast, as Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have caused shipping companies to reroute on longer journeys, Bloomberg reports. Disruptions have cut container line transits in the Suez Canal by nearly 80%, according to estimates by Bloomberg Intelligence. “Earnings expectations will need to move higher for Maersk and the broader liner market amid a surge in freight rates from increased port congestion and an earlier start to peak demand from the dislocation created by the Red Sea crisis. Strong pricing will remain as long as ships can’t safely traverse the Suez Canal,” Bloomberg Intelligence transport analyst Lee Klaskow said.

European gas prices surged 13% to EUR 36 per MW on Monday following an outage at a Norwegian gas plant, its highest since early December, The Financial Times reports. The outage occurred at the Nyhamna gas plant and it is not clear when operations will resume. “Norway [outage] and events surrounding Gazprom customers is the main driving force [for] European gas prices,” ICIS head of gas analytics Tom Marzec-Manser told the outlet. The outage could potentially cut Norwegian flows by more than 20%, Marzec-Manser said.

Why the big impact? Norway is Europe’s largest gas supplier, providing nearly 30% of its gas in 2023. Several European countries have stopped depending on Russia for gas delivery following Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Unexpected disruptions in Norwegian supply are more and more likely to elicit a significant response from the market.

OTHER STORIES WORTH KNOWING THIS MORNING-

DHL Supply Chain expands its pharma logistics in France: DHL Supply Chain has inked an agreement with healthcare company Sanofi to provide it with warehousing, inventory management, picking and packing, and order fulfillment across three sites in France. (Press release)

Calendar

JUNE

5 June (Wednesday): Digital Transformation Summit, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

5-7 June (Wednesday-Friday): Sustainability World Summit, Frankfurt, Germany.

6-7 June (Thursday-Friday): Supply Chain Innovation Summit, Amsterdam, Netherlands.

6-7 June (Thursday-Friday): International Symposium on Sustainable Logistics, Mersin, Turkey.

11-13 June (Tuesday-Thursday): Terminal Operations Conference & Exhibition, Rotterdam, Netherlands.

26-27 June (Wednesday-Thursday): Decarbonizing Shipping Forum, Rotterdam, Netherlands.

27 June (Thursday): East Med Maritime Conference, Beirut, Lebanon.

29 June (Saturday): The Investment Conference in cooperation with the European Union, Brussels.

JULY

2-4 July (Tuesday-Thursday): ACI Europe Annual Congress, Istanbul, Turkey.

14 July (Friday): AI Integration and Autonomous Mobility, Berlin, Germany.

AUGUST

21-22 August (Wednesday-Thursday): Rex Fuels Global Expo & Conference 2024- Bitumen, Petrochemicals & Products, Dubai, UAE.

SEPTEMBER

18-19 September (Wednesday-Thursday): Saudi Maritime & Logistics Congress, Dammam, KSA.

23-25 September (Monday-Wednesday): WorldFreezonesOrganization’s Annual International Conference and Exhibition (AICE) , Dubai, UAE.

OCTOBER

6-8 October (Sunday-Tuesday): Routes World 2024, Bahrain.

8-10 October (Tuesday-Thursday): The Global Rail Transport Infrastructure Exhibition and Conference(Global Rail), Abu Dhabi, UAE.

7-9 October (Monday-Wednesday): AFSIC – Investing in Africa, London, UK.

8-10 October (Tuesday-Thursday): AntwerpXL Expo, Antwerp, Belgium.

21-22 October (Monday-Tuesday): Smart Ports & Logistics Transformation Summit, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

22-24 October (Tuesday-Thursday): Asean Ports and Logistics, Johor, Malaysia.

22-24 October (Tuesday-Thursday): Global Ports Forum, Singapore.

26-27 October (Saturday-Sunday): International Conference on Tourism, Transport, and Logistics, Dubai, UAE.

NOVEMBER

11-12 November (Monday-Tuesday): World Advanced Manufacturing Logistics Summit & Expo, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

11-14 November (Monday-Thursday): ADIPEC Maritime and Logistics Exhibition and Conference, Abu Dhabi, UAE.

13-15 November (Wednesday-Friday): The Bahrain International Airshow, Sakhir Airbase, Bahrain.

18-20 November (Monday-Wednesday): The Heavy Equipment and Truck Show, Damman, Saudi Arabia.

18-19 November (Monday-Tuesday): G20 Summit, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

DECEMBER

10-12 December (Tuesday-Thursday): Middle East Business Aviation, Dubai, UAE.

20 December (Wednesday): The Iran-Senegal Joint Economic Cooperation Commission, Dakar, Senegal.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

IATA Annual General Meeting (AGM) and World Air Transport Summit, New Delhi, India.

1H 2024: Civil Construction subcontracts for construction firms in Oman for implementation of the Abu Dhabi - Suhar rail link to be announced.

2H 2024: Bahri’s barges for Saline Water Conversion Corporation (SWCC) to begin initial and commercial operation.

King Salman Energy Park is set to become operational.

The Cross-Border Digital Trade Forum, Dubai.

2025

APRIL

16-17 April: Global Ports Forum, Dubai, UAE.

Mid-2025: Iraq will complete phase one of the construction of the Grand Faw Port.

DHL and Aramco’s logistics and procurement hub in Saudi Arabia will commence operations.

AD Ports-operated Safaga Port’s multi-purpose terminal will become operational.

Phase 3 of APM Terminals Tangier MedPort to be complete and operational.

1Q 2025: Sadr Park’s Logistics Center in Riyadh to be completed.

1Q 2025: Phase twoof Jafza Logistics Park to be completed.

2026

2026 UNCTAD Global Supply Chains Forum, Saudi Arabia.

2027

4Q 2027: Oman’s Musandam Airport construction to be completed.

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