Maersk updates earnings guidance once again

Maersk has upgraded its full-year earnings guidance for 2024 on the back of strong container market demand and Red Sea disruptions, according to a press release. “While demand for container transport remains strong, supply has been negatively impacted by missed sailings, longer routes, equipment shortages, and delays leading to increased congestion across several key ports in Asia and the Middle East,” CEO Vincent Clerc said. This trend is steadily gaining momentum and is anticipated to bolster financial results in the latter half of 2024. The outfit is now expecting an underlying EBITDA of USD 7 to USD 9 bn, up from its previous forecast of USD 4 to USD 6 bn, the statement says.

This is the second time in nearly a month Maersk has upgraded its forecast, as Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have caused shipping companies to reroute on longer journeys, Bloomberg reports. Disruptions have cut container line transits in the Suez Canal by nearly 80%, according to estimates by Bloomberg Intelligence. “Earnings expectations will need to move higher for Maersk and the broader liner market amid a surge in freight rates from increased port congestion and an earlier start to peak demand from the dislocation created by the Red Sea crisis. Strong pricing will remain as long as ships can’t safely traverse the Suez Canal,” Bloomberg Intelligence transport analyst Lee Klaskow said.

European gas prices surged 13% to EUR 36 per MW on Monday following an outage at a Norwegian gas plant, its highest since early December, The Financial Times reports. The outage occurred at the Nyhamna gas plant and it is not clear when operations will resume. “Norway [outage] and events surrounding Gazprom customers is the main driving force [for] European gas prices,” ICIS head of gas analytics Tom Marzec-Manser told the outlet. The outage could potentially cut Norwegian flows by more than 20%, Marzec-Manser said.

Why the big impact? Norway is Europe’s largest gas supplier, providing nearly 30% of its gas in 2023. Several European countries have stopped depending on Russia for gas delivery following Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Unexpected disruptions in Norwegian supply are more and more likely to elicit a significant response from the market.

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