Gulf oil exports slip back from their prewar high as attacks reach waters beyond Hormuz

Gulf crude exports fell to a seven-day average of 9.9 mn bbl / d as of 7 October as tanker attacks spread beyond Hormuz, the Financial Times (FT) reported. That’s around 42% below the prewar baseline, and down from c. 15.5 mn bbl / d in September.

The drop came just as Washington was calling the strait open: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said at a Wednesday press conference in Athens that Tehran had “lost complete control” of the waterway, as regional oil shipments approached prewar levels, The National reported.

The numbers had backed him up until late September: The seven-day average for Gulf crude exports reached 18.3 mn bbl / d on 30 September, above the 18 mn bbl / d average for the 12 months before the war. Those figures include shipments through the Red Sea and other bypass routes as well as Hormuz.

Iran has widened its attacks beyond the narrow corridor along Oman’s Musandam peninsula, where most of the recent incidents had been concentrated. The Turkish-owned products tanker Acers was struck off northern Qatar on Wednesday, injuring crew members and starting a fire on board. Two days later, the Chinese-owned supertanker Gem No. 2 was hit near the UAE.

Ships waiting outside the strait have also come under fire: The Dhalkut reported gunfire nearby off Fujairah on Thursday, and Iran separately claimed it attacked the NV Sunshine after it crossed Hormuz, though that incident hasn’t been verified. The IRGC has warned that vessels using routes it considers unauthorized could be attacked anywhere in the region.

That puts more ground for US air cover to protect: American aircraft have been escorting tankers through the southern passage along Oman’s coast, keeping them away from waters closer to Iran. Wider attacks could raise security costs for Gulf states backing Washington and stretch US air cover over a larger area, John Walker, head of advisory at EOS Risk Group, told the FT.

Shipping costs are climbing again: The daily charter rate for a supertanker from the Gulf to China hit a record USD 1.6 mn last week, as owners demand higher premiums to enter the region and fewer vessels are available. Those costs land on a network that already relies on risk-tolerant shuttle tankers to carry crude through Hormuz before it is transferred to other vessels outside the Gulf.

BACKGROUND- Gulf exporters have spent months building a way around the shipping squeeze. Saudi Arabia and other producers have increasingly relied on ship-to-ship transfers off Oman and Fujairah, using one tanker for the high-risk Hormuz and another for the onward voyage. The growing traffic has pushed some transfers as far as India’s Gulf of Kutch, as traditional transfer locations become increasingly congested.