TODAY: Marsa Maroc locks in 20-year TC3 concession + XRG increases stake in Rio Grande project

Good morning, nice people, and happy Monday. If today's issue has a theme, it's commitment. Marsa Maroc has secured a 20-year concession extension for Casablanca's Container Terminal 3, with MAD 3 bn now committed to nearly double the terminal's capacity by 2030. Adnoc's XRG is running the same playbook, further offshore. It closed its second stake increase in Rio Grande LNG, picking up another 7.6% of Trains 4 and 5 from GIP.

A rival’s crisis, a rare opening

Saudia and Etihad eye early delivery slots amid Air India uncertainty: Flag carrier Saudia and the UAE’s Etihad Airways are reportedly in preliminary talks with Boeing and Airbus to secure delivery positions as early as 2029 and 2030, Bloomberg reports, citing unnamed sources. The two airlines are looking to capitalize on slots that could open up if Air India pulls back on its order commitments.

What’s going on with Air India? Air India Group posted a c. USD 2 bn loss for FY 2025/26, compounded by surging fuel costs, Pakistan’s airspace ban — which has added distance and cost — and broader disruptions from the regional conflict, Reuters reported.

Why the slots matter: For airlines, jumping the delivery queue is rare. A near-term slot means newer, more fuel-efficient aircraft in service sooner as Gulf carriers work towards modernizing their fleets and boosting passenger capacity as they expand their international networks.

Another brick in the anti-Hormuz wall

Potential investments from Abu Dhabi in a route linking Syrian ports with Iraq’s Umm Qasr and onward to Khalifa Port in the UAE would be “welcome initiatives” that Syrian Transport Minister Yarub Badr said are waiting to be “translated into projects” in an interview with The National.

BACKGROUND- Discussions between Abu Dhabi and Damascus on the logistics corridor surfaced last week, and they cover possible investment in Syrian freezones, dry ports in Damascus, Aleppo, and Homs, and a proposed logistics hub at Al Tanf border crossing. The move comes just a week after AD Ports launched a Khalifa-Umm Qasr service aimed at connecting the Gulf with Turkey and Europe.

Why this matters: Overland bypasses have become a key hedge for Gulf states against blockades in Hormuz after the disruption caused by the conflict over the past few months, with the UAE saying it’s working towards zero reliance on the strait.

Market watch

Oil prices fell this morning as Opec+ raised output targets and Hormuz exports recovered, Reuters reports. Brent crude futures dipped USD 0.34 to USD 71.78 / bbl by 04.08 GMT, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was down USD 0.20 to USD 68.49.

The Baltic Index keeps climbing: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — rose 2.5% to 2,717 points on Friday. The capesize index climbed 4.6% to 4,100 points, while the panamax index edged 0.4% to 2,203 points. The smaller supramax index slipped 0.1% at 1,673 points.

The Drewry World Container Index surged 9% to USD 4,530 per 40-ft container last week, according to the latest index readings. The lift came as transpacific and Asia-Europe rates moved higher, with Shanghai-New York up (11%), Shanghai-Los Angeles (10%), and Shanghai-Genoa (10%). The US-Iran interim agreement has helped reopen Hormuz and restore vessel traffic, but suspended escort operations after an attack near Oman have kept Middle East security risks and rate uncertainty elevated.

Opec+ sticks to the script with another output hike: Opec+ approved an output increase of another 188k bbl / d in August — the alliance’s fifth consecutive monthly increase as producers continue unwinding voluntary supply cuts despite mounting concerns that the market is tipping into surplus, according to a statement. The decision follows identical quota increases for June and July — plus 206k bbl / d for April and May — and forms part of the group’s phased rollback of the 1.65 mn bbl / d voluntary production cut agreed in 2023.

The production increases are only beginning to translate into actual barrels. While quotas have continued to rise, actual output has yet to fully recover after the war disrupted exports. Opec’s latest monthly report (pdf) showed production stood at 33.13 mn bbl / d in May, down by 185k bbl / d m-o-m and still below pre-war levels of 42.72 mn bbl / d, although output began recovering in June as exports gradually resumed.

That recovery is now reshaping the market: The easing of disruptions following the ceasefire has released more crude into global markets just as demand growth slows. Opec recently cut its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 1 mn bbl / d from 1.2 mn bbl / d, while still expecting total demand to reach 106.1 mn bbl / d

What comes next? Assuming the alliance continues increasing quotas at the current pace, the remaining 379k bbl / d of the original voluntary cuts could be fully restored by the end of September, according to Reuters’ calculations.

Data point

493k — that’s how many containers Qatar’s ports handled in 1H 2026. Qatari ports also handled 273k tons of general cargo, 325k tons of bulk cargo, 25k vehicles and equipment units, and 112k head of livestock. Vessel calls reached 866 — down 41.8% y-o-y over the same period.

PSA

Red Sea shipping just got pricier: French shipping firm CMA CGM is set to apply a USD 1k peak season surcharge from 18 July until further notice on all cargo moving from Northwest India, Southeast India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka to Red Sea ports.

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