The windfall that wasn’t

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: DataVolt plans standalone financing for Saudi projects within six months

Good morning, friends. We lead today with a warning shot from EFG Hermes: the oil-price bump that briefly eased Saudi Arabia’s finances in the early months of the war has already faded, leaving the Kingdom in a tighter spot than before the fighting started — and now carrying fresh bills for logistics, security, and energy infrastructure on top.

ALSO- We’ve got Spinneys’ CEO on why the Kingdom is now the chain's biggest bet outside the UAE, plus a run through a mixed 2Q earnings season from Masar, Sisco, Makkah Construction, Alramz, and Saudi Re.

DataVolt targets new funding by year-end

Data center developer DataVolt aims to secure financing for all its under-construction Saudi facilities within six months, CEO Rajit Nanda told AGBI. The AI company is going the non-recourse route for project financing, where lenders are repaid from each project’s own cashflow rather than from the parent company’s balance sheet.

Why the funding model matters: While common in power and water, this structure is rare for multi-tenant data centers because lenders must underwrite multiple customer contracts instead of a single hyperscaler lease. If applied, the model would shift the company’s data center investment from a large upfront capital deployment to recurring payments.

It proved the model in June, reaching financial close on up to USD 150 mn of 12-year non-recourse debt for a USD 250 mn, 12 MW data center in Tashkent, with the EBRD contributing USD 78 mn alongside DEG, Proparco, and the Opec Fund. DataVolt spent months stress-testing its customer contracts for creditworthiness and replaceability to get lenders comfortable with the multi-tenant risk. It now wants to apply the same structure across its Saudi portfolio.

The liquidity will serve a loaded pipeline, including a 1.5 GW data center at Neom’s Oxagon (phase one due by 2028), alongside a USD 500 mn Riyadh East data center. Both are part of DataVolt’s USD 5 bn investment commitment to the Kingdom.

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Taking the long way round

Six Saudi-flagged supertankers reroute around Africa: Six Saudi-flagged supertankers, operated by Bahri, have changed course in the Gulf of Aden and are heading to southern Africa rather than transiting the blockaded Bab Al Mandab and the southern Red Sea, Reuters reports, citing ship-tracking data.

A 25-day detour: The vessels, sailing empty after returning from Asia, appear to have rerouted in response to Houthi threats against Saudi shipping, trade sources told the newswire. The longer route could add at least 25 days to voyages that would otherwise return to Saudi Red Sea ports via the Suez Canal, Reuters calculations showed.

IN CONTEXT- The rerouting follows the Houthis’ Saudi-targeted blockade of Bab Al Mandab and attacks on Saudi-linked vessels that expanded the Red Sea’s high-risk ins. zone. Maritime security firm Ambrey also classified ships calling at Saudi ports as high risk.

Not everyone is avoiding the route: Two tankers carrying a combined 3 mn barrels of Saudi crude managed to cross Bab Al Mandab over the weekend despite the blockade.

Crude exports fell in July: The Kingdom’s crude exports amounted to around 4.2 mn bbl / d last month, an m-o-m drop of 460k barrels, according to tanker data by Bloomberg. When accounting for cargoes loaded onto ships that remain trapped inside the Arabian Gulf, the m-o-m drop amounts to 230k barrels, a markedly less drastic difference.

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The big story abroad

Conflicting accounts over the US-Iran war are taking the lead today, as US President Donald Trump claims that talks with Tehran are underway and that the Strait of Hormuz would imminently reopen. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei denied ongoing talks with Washington, stating instead that Tehran is discussing shipping administration in the contested waterway with Oman.

As the regional conflict continues to strain oil supply, Trump has chastised ExxonMobil and Chevron for reaping gigantic windfalls over rising oil prices. The energy giants have earned as much as USD 318 mn per day in 2Q, a more than threefold y-o-y jump. Trump urged the companies to “give some of that back to the public” and trim prices at the pump.

Apple issued a new challenge to the UK government’s attempt to gain backdoor access to encrypted user data, a push the government defends as essential for protecting the public from terrorism and serious crime. The government’s prior demand called for access to data from UK and US customers, which triggered a diplomatic brawl between London and Washington last year.

JPMorgan Chase will plug USD 750 bn into US housing through 2035 as part of its American Dream Initiative, which aims to construct or preserve 1 mn affordable housing units and help 500k customers acquire homes.

Visa is acquiring Israeli fraud detection startup BioCatch for USD 2.4 bn, continuing the payment player’s expansion into cybersecurity amid a flood of AI-powered scams. Under the agreement, Visa will acquire the startup's behavioral biometrics platform, which analyzes user interaction data to detect scammers and bots.

War spending outruns oil windfall

The oil-price windfall that briefly padded Saudi Arabia’s finances in the opening months of the war has already unwound, leaving the Kingdom worse off than before the fighting. The early rise in oil revenues narrowed the budget deficit and flipped the current account into its first quarterly surplus in two years. But in the weeks after the US-Iran peace memorandum of understanding, crude slid back below USD 80 a barrel and erased most of that windfall, according to a note from EFG Hermes.

What is left is a fiscal picture that looks structurally weaker than the pre-war baseline: a deficit that barely narrows, a budget breakeven oil price that has blown out, and an economy the firm now expects to shrink in 2026.

Why it matters: Riyadh needs oil trading near USD 117 a barrel to balance its budget at a time when it is nowhere close, and the war has done two things at once. It has created new spending needs in logistics, energy infrastructure, and security, and it has made the foreign capital meant to relieve fiscal pressure harder to attract, according to EFG.

BUT- The picture is more nuanced: Argaam Investments’ Ahmed Ramzy tells EnterpriseAM the accounting figure is closer to USD 90-95 and only nears USD 115 once you fold in off-budget megaproject spending.

SOUND SMART- The fiscal breakeven is the oil price a government needs to cover its spending without borrowing. There is no single Saudi figure because it depends on what spending you include: the formal budget alone points to the low USD 90s, but load in the off-budget bns flowing through PIF and the gigaprojects and it climbs toward and past USD 115.

The windfall was real, and brief. EFG projects the 2026 fiscal deficit narrowing only marginally to 5.6% of GDP from 5.8% in 2025. Set that against the 2.3% the government budgeted and the 4.4% EFG itself was forecasting earlier this year. The first quarter told the story in reverse: a 20% annual jump in spending, with capex up 56%, produced the largest nominal quarterly deficit on record at SAR 126 bn. The second quarter looked far healthier, as higher oil prices fed through, with oil revenues rising 22% y-o-y and the deficit narrowing to SAR 34 bn. EFG treats that 2Q improvement as a one-off. With prices back below USD 80 and production stuck near 7 mn bbl / d, the boost has already faded.

Both readings start from the same recent data. The second-quarter deficit narrowed sharply, by roughly 73%, as revenues jumped from SAR 261 bn to almost SAR 339 bn. Ramzy is emphatic that this was a revenue story, not austerity, as spending fell only about 3.5%, and the improvement reflects the Kingdom’s collection capacity rather than any belt-tightening. EFG reads the quarter the same way and treats the boost as a one-off, with oil back below USD 80 and production stuck near 7 mn bbl / d.

On the full year, Ramzy says the government’s original SAR 165 bn deficit target now looks hard to hit, and the gap may widen slightly, though holding near that line amid the current tensions would still count as a strong outcome. EFG is projecting the deficit narrows only marginally to 5.6% of GDP from 5.8% in 2025, against a budgeted 2.3%.

The financing choice underneath the deficit is its own signal: The entire first-half gap was covered by borrowing, with no drawdown on reserves. Reserves are the buffer for a genuine shock, he says, and worth preserving precisely because of the current regional risk, Ramzy says, adding that the Kingdom’s high credit rating gives it market access its peers lack, letting it spread long-lived infrastructure costs across varying debt maturities rather than draining a single pool of banknotes. The caveat, he argues, is that the approach only works with tight control over financing costs and the quality of what the debt actually pays for.

The real economy is wearing the war more visibly than the budget. EFG forecasts real GDP contracts 1% in 2026, with oil GDP shrinking around 11% on a 25% drop in crude output and non-oil growth slowing to what it calls an “anemic” 2.0%. Non-oil growth had already decelerated to 2.9% in 1Q, the slowest since the pandemic, with flash estimates putting 2Q at just 0.6%.

The logistics bind is where it turns strategic: Saudi’s eastern, Gulf-facing ports are the ones exposed to disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, and the Red Sea fallback at Jeddah cannot yet absorb the volume. EFG points to rerouted shipping, cargo transferred to smaller vessels to run the Red Sea amid higher ins. costs, and a port lacking the container-handling, trucking, and road capacity to cope, with May sea freight down 23% y-o-y.

Ramzy is more positive on the export side, stressing that the East-West pipeline and Yanbu’s Red Sea outlet let crude reach Europe via the Suez Canal without passing the contested Bab Al Mandab chokepoint to the south. Disruption raises transit costs and cuts flexibility, but does not shut Saudi export capacity.

The binding point for both is financing. The PIF flagged the direction weeks ago with a five-year plan leaning less on direct equity injections into its subsidiaries and more on private money, and it is reportedly planning to merge the ports, rail, and shipping companies it already owns into a single logistics entity large enough to attract outside capital. EFG’s worry is that the same sustained geopolitical risk driving the new spending also makes private capital, especially Western, harder to court, which is why it expects a second round of project reprioritization.

What’s next: EFG assumes some normalcy from September, an assumption it concedes carries clear downside risk after the Houthis announced a maritime blockade on the Kingdom and struck energy facilities in the July escalation.

Spinneys raises its Saudi wager to build out its biggest market outside the UAE

Wagers on Saudi growth: Dubai-based supermarket chain Spinneys’ strategy is positioning Saudi Arabia as its biggest long-term growth market outside the UAE, wagering on rising incomes, rapid urbanization, and a growing appetite for premium grocery retail, CEO Sunil Kumar tells EnterpriseAM.

REMEMBER- The company announced an additional 20% of its Saudi subsidiary from Al Hokair Holding Group for SAR 18 mn. With this move, the company will increase its stake in its Saudi subsidiary to 70% from 50%, but the transaction still needs regulatory clearance.

More than stores: The increased stake provides Spinneys with control over its Saudi operations and supports faster execution of its investment strategy. “Increasing Spinneys’ stake to 70% gives the business stronger control over the Saudi operation, greater economic participation in its growth, and more flexibility to invest in stores, fresh food, private label, and service standards,” Kumar says.

The higher stake also increases Spinneys’ economic interest in a market it views as one of its most important growth engines. “It also supports a faster rollout of key growth levers, such as new store openings, which is a core part of our broader strategy to accelerate profitable growth,” Kumar adds.

Two cities take the lead: Having entered Saudi Arabia in 2024 with its first store at La Strada Yard in Riyadh, the retailer is prioritizing Riyadh and Jeddah, where purchasing power and population growth are strongest. The company plans to steadily expand its store network to around 10-12 stores by 2028, while targeting Riyadh and Jeddah, as demand in the premium grocery market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 6.4% over the same period.

Masar, Sisco, Alramz, and more deliver mixed 2Q earnings

Masar’s borrowing costs catch up with earnings

Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction (Masar) saw net income slip 8.7% y-o-y to SAR 216.1 mn, it said in a Tadawul filing. Revenue, meanwhile, was up 36.9% y-o-y to SAR 915.9 mn, driven by land sales.

What squeezed the bottom line: The decline came despite the stronger top line because financing costs climbed. Masar stopped capitalizing borrowing costs tied to infrastructure works — those costs now hit the income statement directly — after the underlying works were substantially completed. In other words, revenue growth couldn’t outrun the interest bill that moved onto the books.

The first half was softer: 1H net income fell 34.1% y-o-y to SAR 261 mn on revenue of SAR 995.5 mn, down 15% y-o-y, as land-sale revenue came in lighter than a year earlier along with higher finance expenses.

Sisco’s ports carry its 2Q

Sustained Infrastructure Holding Co. (Sisco Holding) nearly tripled its bottom line in 2Q 2026, with net income up 196.3% y-o-y to SAR 59.2 mn, according to a Tadawul disclosure. Revenue rose 129.8% y-o-y to SAR 722.7 mn over the same period. Higher port volumes, led by MPT and Red Sea Gateway Terminal (RSGT and RSGTI), plus steady logistics gains lifted the books, holding up against higher operating and financing costs.

The half-year read: 1H net income grew 91.1% y-o-y to SAR 85.4 mn on a 74.5% y-o-y revenue expansion to SAR 1.2 bn.

Hajj-driven quarter for Makkah Construction

Makkah Construction and Development posted a 19.7% y-o-y increase in net income to SAR 172.6 mn in 2Q 2026, according to a Tadawul disclosure. Revenue climbed 80.6% y-o-y to SAR 700.9 mn, lifted by the Hajj season falling largely within the quarter.

Hajj timing boosted the quarter, with most pilgrimage revenue recognized in 2Q this year versus being split between the second and third quarters last year. Even excluding that effect, hospitality benefited from stronger pre-Hajj Umrah demand, and retail benefited from higher lease rates and expanded leased space, adding roughly a combined SAR 36 mn. Lower investment income and higher zakat reduced the uplift by about SAR 17 mn.

On a 1H basis, the net income rose by 13.8% y-o-y to SAR 334.8 mn on revenue that grew 52.7% to SAR 952.3 mn, with hospitality and retail driving the gains.

Alramz sold more, earned less

Revenue and net income headed in opposite directions for Alramz Real Estate in 2Q 2026. The company’s bottom line was down 60.6% y-o-y to SAR 25.6 mn, while revenue jumped more than sixfold, up 518.2% y-o-y to SAR 550.4 mn, lifted mainly by the SAR 325.7 mn sale of a project under development, plus off-plan sales of SAR 94.2 mn and unit handovers of SAR 41.9 mn, according to a Tadawul filing.

Why the split? Two things weighed on the bottom line, and neither relates to the core business. Alramz booked a higher zakat charge in the quarter, and it recorded a smaller net fair-value gain than a year earlier because its funds are revalued only semi-annually, so the timing of that mark, not a change in the assets, moved the number.

The same pattern holds over six months. 1H net income after zakat fell 24.1% y-o-y to SAR 54.3 mn, even as revenue climbed 308.6% y-o-y to SAR 910.7 mn.

Saudi Re boosted by surplus reversal

More than doubled: Saudi Reins. Company (Saudi Re) saw its net income increase 118.4% y-o-y to SAR 114.8 mn in 2Q 2026, according to a Tadawul disclosure. Ins. revenue rose 69.1% to SAR 701.4 mn during the same period.

Nearly half the jump was one-off. The quarter includes a non-recurring reversal of accumulated surplus of SAR 53.5 mn, plus a swing to SAR 8.3 mn of net reins. finance income from a SAR 16.9 mn expense a year earlier. Strip out those tailwinds, and the company’s core underwriting shrank, with ins. service results down 67.2% y-o-y to SAR 38.6 mn and net income from ins. results dropped 27.1% y-o-y to SAR 40.6 mn.

1H told a similar story, with net income growing 83.6% y-o-y to SAR 161.6 mn, supported by a 70.9% y-o-y rise in ins. revenue to SAR 1.26 bn.

Humain backs Saudi AI firm Mozn, Ceer secures EV local content

Humain expands strategy with first Saudi partnership

Humain makes its first investment in a Saudi company: PIF-owned Humain and AI firm Mozn are partnering on AI infrastructure and enterprise AI tools, Mozn said on X. Humain will provide investment and compute capacity to support Mozn’s next-generation solutions, marking the AI company’s first investment in a Saudi business.

The two companies promise to provide secure, high-performance AI solutions. The partnership also involves deep engineering and technology collaboration to accelerate the development and deployment of scalable AI solutions for financial services and government entities.

REMEMBER- The partnership aligns with Humain’s strategy, following a recent collaboration with Accenture, McKinsey, and Canada’s Cohere.

Saudi EV partnership targets SAR 9.2 bn to GDP

Ceer secures local content agreement for EV manufacturing: Ceer, Saudi Arabia’s national electric vehicle brand, signs two agreements with the Local Content and Government Procurement Authority (LCGPA) to localize electric vehicle manufacturing and transfer industrial know-how, in exchange for inclusion on the Kingdom’s mandatory list of national products, according to a post on X.

Localizing EV production: The agreements cover the localization of electric vehicle production for sedans and SUVs as Ceer advances plans to launch the first Saudi-designed, engineered, and manufactured EV.

Why it matters: The LCGPA expects the agreements to contribute around SAR 9.2 bn in Saudi GDP over the next decade and create more than 2.6k jobs, which aligns with Ceer’s plans to create nearly 30k jobs, including 6.5k direct positions, with Saudis filling 80% of direct roles by 2034. It also targets 45% local content across its products and an estimated SAR 30 bn contribution to GDP.

S&P warns US manufacturing expansion masks deepening supply, confidence slump

US manufacturing held its ground in July, but S&P Global says that’s the wrong way to read it. The latest S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (pdf) came in at 53.9, unchanged from June, and still comfortably in expansion territory, yet the index provider calls it a picture that “masks softer production and sales growth.” Business confidence in the outlook fell to its lowest level since October 2025, marking a nine-month low.

The internals explain the gap between the headline and the mood. Production rose at its weakest pace since March, new order growth eased for a third straight month, and firms increasingly drew down existing stock rather than placing fresh orders. Finished-goods inventories saw their steepest drawdown since September 2023. Chris Williamson, S&P’s chief business economist, called it plainly: “beneath the survey we see some warning signs about the future growth trajectory.”

The war is the thread running through nearly every weak spot in the data. S&P says vendor delivery times deteriorated at the second-sharpest rate in four years “as the Middle East conflict continued to cause delivery delays and contribute to material shortages.” Its earlier flash report, published July 24, was more specific still, tying the disruption directly to “shipping disruption around the Strait of Hormuz.” Input costs eased only slightly, remaining above the survey’s historical average, driven by what the release attributes to high energy prices and tariffs together.

Employment tells the same cautionary tale. Factory staffing rose “only marginally” in July, with anecdotal evidence in the survey suggesting most open positions had simply been filled rather than new roles created, even as backlogs of work crept higher, marking a sign of capacity strain without the hiring to match it.

Why it matters to our part of the world

The US is the world’s largest oil consumer, and weaker US manufacturing means weaker US demand for the fuel that runs it. OPEC cut its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 1 mn barrels a day from 1.2 mn in its July report, even as the group approved a fifth consecutive monthly output increase and actual production remains below pre-war levels, pointing to a market absorbing more supply just as demand growth cools.

A softening US demand signal lands on Gulf producers at the worst possible moment. They’re already absorbing record war-risk ins. costs, and now the market they’re counting on to buy their oil back is showing the same confidence problem their own war is causing everyone else.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets are trading lower this morning, failing to echo the rally seen on Wall Street just hours earlier. South Korea’s Kospi is down 1.4%, with Japan’s Nikkei trailing behind. The Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are also in the red. The drop comes despite US stocks ending Monday higher after US President Donald Trump signaled the resumption of talks to end the regional war.

TASI	10,824	+1.1% (YTD: +3.2%)
MSCI Tadawul 30	1,450	+0.8% (YTD: +4.5%)
NomuC	21,917	+0.1% (YTD: -5.9%)
USD : SAR (SAMA)	USD 3.75 Sell	USD 3.75 Buy
Interest rates	4.25% repo	3.75% reverse repo
EGX30	54,094	-0.4% (YTD: +29.3%)
ADX	9,941	+0.3% (YTD: -0.5%)
DFM	5,878	+1.4% (YTD: -2.8%)
S&P 500	7,601	+1.5% (YTD: +11.0%)
FTSE 100	10,858	-0.1% (YTD: +9.3%)
Euro Stoxx 50	6,427	+1.1% (YTD: +10.9%)
Brent crude	USD 83.77	-4.7%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 2.77	-0.4%
Gold	USD 4,108	+0.4%
BTC	USD 63,650	+0.1% (YTD: -27.4%)
Sukuk/bond market index	905.57	-0.1% (YTD: -1.5%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	149.83	0.0% (YTD: -1.4%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	15.86	-0.8% (YTD: +6.1%)

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI rose 1.1% yesterday on turnover of SAR 6.3 bn. The index is up 3.2% YTD.

In the green: National Company for Learning and Education (+10.0%), Petro Rabigh (+10.0%), and Saudi Industrial Export (+8.6%).

In the red: Al Hassan Ghazi Ibrahim Shaker (-6.4%), Tadco (-4.6%), and Sisco Holding (-3.6%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC rose 0.1% yesterday on turnover of SAR 11.7 mn. The index is down 5.9% YTD.

In the green: Mayar Holding (+11.2%), Riyal Investment and Development (+9.3%), and Miral Dental Clinics (+9.0%).

In the red: Smile Care (-8.4%), Al Kuzama Trading (-7.7%), and Al Ashghal Al Moysra (-6.8%).

CALENDAR

AUGUST

30 August-1 September (Sunday-Tuesday): Saudi Paper and Packaging Expo, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

31 August-3 September (Monday-Thursday): Leap Tech Conference, Riyadh Exhibition & Convention Center - Malham.

SEPTEMBER

8-10 September (Tuesday-Thursday): The WTM Spotlight Riyadh, Riyadh Front Exhibition & Conference Center (RFECC), Riyadh.

15-17 September (Tuesday-Thursday) The Global AI Summit, King Abdulaziz International Convention Center, Riyadh.

23 September (Wednesday): Saudi National Day.

28 September-1 October (Monday-Thursday): The International Conference on Theory and Practice of Electronic Governance (ICEGOV), Prince Sultan University, Riyadh.

OCTOBER

25-26 October (Sunday-Monday): The Global Proptech Summit, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

26-28 October (Monday-Wednesday): ACHEMA Middle East, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

26-29 October (Monday-Thursday): The Future Investment Initiative, King Abdulaziz International Conference Center, Riyadh.

28-29 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Procurement and Supply Chain Futures Forum, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

28-29 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Real Estate Supply Chain Forum, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

30 October-1 November (Friday-Sunday): The New Global Sport Conference, Sofitel Hotel & Convention Centre, Riyadh.

NOVEMBER

11-12 November (Wednesday-Thursday): Aluminum Arabia, The Arena, Riyadh.

16-19 November (Monday-Thursday): Cityscape Global, Riyadh Exhibition and Convention Centre (Malham), Riyadh.

29 November-1 December (Sunday-Tuesday): The UN Trade and Development Global Supply Chain Forum, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2026:

2H: Sabic’s USD 6.4 bn Fujian project in China to start production;
November: The Esports Nations Cup, Riyadh;
The World Economic Forum’s Global Collaboration and Growth Meeting, Jeddah;

2027

FEBRUARY

1-3 February (Monday-Wednesday): Energy Regulators Regional Association annual conference, Riyadh.

MARCH

21-25 March (Sunday-Thursday):The World Water Forum, Riyadh.

22–24 March (Monday-Wednesday): Capital Markets Forum, Four Seasons Hotel, Riyadh

APRIL

26-29 April (Monday-Thursday): World Energy Congress, Riyadh.

JUNE

1-3 June (Tuesday-Thursday): The Saudi Entertainment and Amusement Expo, Riyadh Front Exhibition and Conference Center.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

The Ocean Race finishes in Amaala on the Red Sea;
Riyadh-Kudmi transmission line to be completed;
Aero Middle East and Sand & Fun takes place in Thumamah Airport, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2Q 2027:

The Hail Region Water Networks Project is expected to be completed.

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