Lucid gets new CEO and fresh funding from PIF, Uber

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

Day three of the blockade

Good morning, ladies and gents. It’s another day of watching and waiting how the whole situation to the east will unfold. The US blockade of Hormuz is still going —- and energy markets seem to have not fully priced in what the supply shock will mean for the global economy if it persists for much longer.

The IMF is giving us a hint: The Kingdom’s growth forecast was slashed down to 3.1% in 2026, a major 1.4 percentage points decrease from the Fund’s January projection. Global growth forecasts have also been slashed and inflation forecasts inched higher. We have the details in today’s Planet Finance, below.

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The war isn’t slowing down the folks paying at the big table, it seems. The GCC’s sovereign funds deployed almost USD 25 bn during 1Q 2026, even as conflict marred about a third of it. The latest investment came from the Public Investment Fund, which doubled down on EV maker Lucid with a USD 550 mn investment.

Watch this space

ENERGY — Arab Gulf oil producers can restore 50% of their shut capacity in just two weeks once the Strait of Hormuz reopens, and can ramp that up to 80% just a month later, Bloomberg cites the International Energy Agency as saying in its last monthly oil report. The resumption would be contingent on companies mobilizing workers, contractors, and stabilizing supply chains.

The final 20%? That might take longer to restore, primarily due to reduced pressure in the fields and other technical constraints.

BUT- It’s not so easy: Reopening Hormuz has become more complicated with the US naval blockade taking effect earlier this week, pushing crude briefly past USD 100 a barrel and putting regional producers on high alert after Tehran threatened to retaliate against wider maritime infrastructure.

REAL ESTATE — Is the war pushing the rich away from the region? Wealthy residents across the Middle East are ramping up property searches in high-end European hotspots, seeking everything from short-term rentals to permanent homes as ongoing hostilities push families and investors to secure options abroad, Bloomberg reports.

Where is demand going? Interest is rising across Switzerland, Spain, and the UK. Brokers report increased searches for ultra-luxury homes, a spike in inquiries and contracts in Marbella, and stronger demand for prime short-term rentals in London as supply tightens.

What’s behind the shift? The conflict is prompting a rethink among high-net-worth individuals who had gravitated toward GCC cities taxfree income and stability. While the hubs remain resilient, the war dented their safe-haven appeal, nudging some to diversify or temporarily relocate.

The waiting game: Many are opting to rent first rather than commit to a permanent move, according to the business information service. A large-scale capital outflow from the Gulf is unlikely for now, and relocation remains a complex process, leaving most buyers hedging until the situation stabilizes.

INVESTMENT — Safari Group will invest up to EGP 2 bn to launch seven entertainment centers under the global Chuck E. Cheese brand in Egypt over the next four years, the company’s CEO Ali Saleh Al Sagri told Asharq Business. Safari Group’s hospitality subsidiary Unique Hospitality Company and Egypt’s pmaestro will handle management and operations.

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The big story abroad

Washington’s naval blockade on Iran is still in effect and bilateral talks “could be happening over next two days,” US President Donald Trump said overnight. A major sticking point will be Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Washington reportedly proposed a 20-year “suspension” of all nuclear activity — not just a permanent ban of nuclear enrichment. Iran is holding out for a five-year suspension of work on anything nuclear.

The US blockade of Hormuz has tankers stopping or turning around, the FT notes.

Pressure on Tehran is mounting, with Washington deciding not to renew a 30-day waiver of sanctions — set to lapse this Sunday — on Iranian oil at sea, Reuters reports. The waiver has allowed roughly 140 mn barrels of oil to reach global markets.

Lebanon and Israel held their first direct diplomatic talks in decades on Tuesday in Washington, which the US State Department called a “historic milestone.” Iran-aligned Hezbollah was not represented at the sit-down and has long opposed direct talks with Tel Aviv.

MEANWHILE- US banks are breaking earnings records as 1Q financials come out. Investment banks capitalized on a volatile first quarter marked by US intervention in Venezuela and the war on Iran. JPMorgan Chase delivered its highest-ever topline figure, while Citi turned in its best quarterly revenue in a decade.

Lucid starts fresh with new CEO + new funds from PIF, Uber

The Public Investment Fund is doubling down on Lucid Group with a USD 550 mn investment from the fund’s Ayar Third Investment. The funding is part of a round of fresh investment that saw Uber put in an additional USD 200 mn, as the EV maker looks to stabilize operations at a critical point.

Growth plans: Lucid is doubling down on its partnership with Uber on its global robotaxi service, expanding the agreement to at least 35k vehicles, including its upcoming midsize platform due later this year.

ALSO- A new head: Lucid ended its search for a new CEO by tapping Silvio Napoli, former head of Swiss elevator manufacturer Schindler Holding. Napoli is set to take over in the coming weeks, pending US work visa approval, replacing interim CEO Marc Winterhoff, who is returning to his role as COO.

Napoli has his work cut out for him — and he knows it. Making Lucid more resilient will be “a lot of work,” he told Bloomberg. The company is navigating a challenging demand environment following a turbulent 2025 marked by production issues, supply constraints, and shifting US EV policies.

By the numbers: Preliminary figures show first-quarter revenue of USD 280-284 mn and an operating loss of about USD 1 bn. Lucid missed expectations for 1Q deliveries by over 2.1k vehicles, citing a temporary sales halt ‌and recall tied to an unauthorized supplier change.

REMEMBER- The firm is targeting production of up to 27k vehicles in 2026 and is banking on rising fuel prices to improve EV affordability, even as it works toward building a more sustainable business model.

Saudi, UAE business sentiment remains resilient as investors recalibrate strategies - HSBC

Saudi and UAE business sentiment holds firm despite disruptions, pursuing growth through recalibrated strategies. Businesses and investors in Saudi Arabia and the UAE are maintaining firm medium-term strategies despite ongoing regional uncertainty, according to an HSBC global business leaders survey (pdf). On the global front, 93% of the surveyed investors plan to increase cross-border trade or investment over the next five years.

GCC confidence in near-term growth is strong, with 98% of respondents in Saudi Arabia and 96% in the UAE seeing global expansion prospects and already reshaping their supply chain strategies to capture them. The global figure sits slightly below that of the GCC countries at 94%, but still indicates that cross-border trade and investment are expected to become more regional.

The disruption opens the door for business repositioning: 95% of respondents In Saudi see the current economic environment as a catalyst to redefine priorities and reassess market exposure, a view shared by 93% in the UAE. These figures exceed the global average of 88%, with 87% of respondents saying they are now more willing than they were five years ago to take calculated risks to grow their businesses.

Regional investments will become mainstream

Regionalization is a main focal point for global decision-makers, with 91% of firms expecting cross-border activity to become more regional over the next five years. Some 33% of respondents expect Saudi to become more important to their economic relationships, while 37% say the same for the UAE.

Why it matters: These figures put Saudi and the UAE ahead of other major markets, including India (26%), ASEAN (24%), and the wider Middle East (23%), in terms of rising strategic importance. That momentum is part of a broader shift, with 89% of businesses increasing capital deployment into high-growth markets.

AI is redefining growth strategies

AI and technology are shaping how investors approach 2026. Half of the surveyed firms now see access to technology and infrastructure just as important as market growth and client demand when planning international strategies, while 49% of investors say greater exposure to AI themes is driving shifts in their portfolios. That shift is also showing up in new market choices, with energy costs and AI infrastructure (51%) now almost on the same level as traditional growth prospects (52%).

Investors see tech driving a wide range of gains over the next three years, led by higher productivity and workforce efficiency (56%), better forecasting and decision-making (48%), and stronger innovation (46%), along with lower operating costs (46%). Looking further ahead, nearly a third expect AI to fundamentally reshape their core business models by 2030.

What’s next?

Digital finance will be on the rise. 90% of decision-makers expect digital finance adoption to accelerate over the next five years, and more than half saying digital assets will become core market infrastructure by 2031. Readiness remains a challenge, with 47% of businesses still not understanding how digital finance will affect them, and fewer than 40% already implemented use cases.

Respondents believe private capital (33%) will exert the greatest influence over global capital allocation by 2035, significantly outranking public markets (20%), a blended model (20%), sovereign and state-backed investors (18%), and governments or regulators (10%).

Gulf capital hasn’t sat still

Gulf sovereign wealth funds are still deploying capital at pace, even as active conflict marred nearly a third of 1Q 2026. Funds including the Public Investment Fund (PIF), Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala, and the Qatar Investment Authority (QIA) deployed almost USD 25 bn during the quarter, according to Global SWF data picked up by Semafor.

Deep pockets explain the paper trail: Gulf sovereign funds now control around USD 5 tn in assets — a figure expected to balloon to nearly USD 18 tn by 2050 — giving them the firepower to absorb shocks and keep capital flowing.

Gulf investors remain heavily tied to international markets, particularly the US, where depth in tech, infrastructure, and finance makes a rapid reallocation difficult. Recent agreements, including wagers on AI, media, and energy assets, suggest existing commitments are still being honored.

Case in point: Mubadala just last week closed its third Brazil fund, overshooting its initial target of USD 750 mn with USD 900 mn raised. It’s not just Mubadala — the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (Adia) has also kept active, ramping up exposure to private credit in Europe and Asia.

What if the war drags on?

Overseas deployment is likely to slow down, with capital redirected toward government support, domestic industries, or strategic sectors like aviation and defense, effectively crowding out some global investments, Global SWF’s Diego López said.

We knew this, to an extent: Global SWF said last month that Abu Dhabi’s sovereign funds could scale back overseas investments or redirect capital toward domestic “resilience” priorities if disruption to Hormuz persists. Adia would likely rebalance into liquid markets, while Mubadala and L’Imad could refocus on supply chains, infrastructure, and economic stability.

However, Mubadala could also be well positioned to hunt for bargains, deploying capital opportunistically into distressed assets, López said. The state-backed power house has recently reached AED 1.4 tn in AUM, as it upped deployment across AI, healthcare, financial services, and private credit.

Banks are under pressure as Iran conflict threatens liquidity, asset quality -Fitch

Saudi Arabia’s banking sector could face mounting pressures if the ongoing Iran conflict keeps going or escalates further, according to a Fitch Ratings note seen by EnterpriseAM. Banks are currently supported by solid financial buffers, but Fitch warns that a deterioration beyond its base case could lead to downgrades in some lenders’ Viability Ratings.

Under a prolonged conflict scenario marked by weaker growth and softer business activity, Saudi banks would likely see slower credit growth, declining non-interest income, and margin compression from a higher-for-longer interest rate environment. Fitch noted that an “adverse escalation” could significantly weaken financing growth, asset quality, profitability, capitalization, and liquidity buffers, while rising funding costs and intensifying competition for liquidity would further strain the system.

In a severe stress scenario — where impaired loans triple or quadruple — Fitch said most banks would likely remain close to break-even, though weaker players like Gulf International Bank Saudi Arabia and Bank Aljazira could slip into losses. Despite these risks, the sector entered the crisis from a position of strength, with Stage 3 loans at just 1.3% by end-2025 and cost of risk among the lowest in the GCC at 30 bps.

Liquidity pressures remain a key structural vulnerability, as credit growth continues to outpace deposits. The sector’s loan-to-deposit ratio reached a record 108% by late 2025, while external liabilities rose to SAR 650 bn. Fitch estimates banks could absorb a 10% deposit outflow without official support, though liquidity buffers at lenders such as Al Rajhi, Riyad Bank, and Bank Albilad would come under significant strain.

The Saudi Central Bank retains sufficient capacity to support the system through repo facilities or direct deposits, Fitch noted. Government-related entities also hold around SAR 450 bn at the central bank that could be deployed into the banking system if required.

BUT- Fitch cautioned that given the strong link between sovereign and bank credit profiles, any downgrade of the sovereign would likely translate into lower long-term issuer default ratings across the sector.

Saudi Energy hooks UK’s Kraken

Saudi Energy is said to have acquired a minority stake in UK software company Kraken, Sky News reported on Monday, citing people it says are in the know. The transaction, set to be announced in the coming weeks, will see the pair set up a regional JV to roll out Kraken’s operating system across MENA, including accounts here at home. The business was valued in December at USD 8.7 bn.

A massive digital overhaul is at play: The utility giant is set to migrate its roughly 11 mn Saudi customer accounts onto Kraken’s platform. This comes as the Kingdom ramps up its solar and wind capacity, increasing the need for real-time demand management and grid stability.

Kraken provides the software backbone for utilities, handling things like billing, customer management, and smart grid optimization. Its system is licensed to serve over 70 mn customer accounts globally for the likes of E.ON and Tokyo Gas, with an eye on hitting 100 mn customers by next year. A potential IPO in the UK or the US is also in the cards.

Who sits at the cap table: Saudi Energy joins a growing roster of institutional backers in Kraken, alongside New York investment firm D1 Capital, global asset manager Fidelity International, and Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan, which came in through the company’s recent USD 1 bn raise. Kraken’s corporate parent Octopus Energy holds roughly 13.7% of it following the spin-off, while the UK’s state-backed British Business Bank also holds a minority position.

FinMin closes SAR 16.9 bn April sukuk issuance

The Finance Ministry wrapped up its SAR 16.9 bn local sukuk offering for April 2026, according to a statement from the National Debt Management Center (NDMC) released yesterday. The issuance comes under the government’s Saudi riyal-dominated sukuk program.

The issuance was structured in five tranches:

A five-year tranche, valued at SAR 563 mn.
A seven-year tranche, valued at SAR 3 bn.
A ten-year tranche, valued at SAR 5.7 bn.
A 13-year tranche, valued at SAR 2 bn.
A 15-year tranche, valued at SAR 5.7 bn.

IMF trims global GDP forecast with dispersed war scenarios

The IMF has revised down its global growth forecast to 3.1% for 2026 from the 3.4% projected in January, according to its recent World Economic Outlook report (pdf). Without the war, the IMF says global growth would have been revised upward due to strong technology investment and resilient productivity resulting from AI adoption.

The MENA region faces the most significant downgrade of 2.8 percentage points to a 1.1% growth rate in 2026, from a previous forecast of 3.9%, highlighting a hardening regional divide amid war. Saudi Arabia’s growth forecast was slashed down to 3.1% in 2026, a major 1.4 percentage points decrease from the Fund’s January projection. However, growth is expected to pick up pace again to 4.5% in 2027, up by about 0.9 percentage points from the January forecast.

The UAE's 2026 GDP growth projection was also cut to 3.1%, down from 5% in the Fund’s October projection. Egypt’s GDP forecast was also revised down to 4.2% in 2026, a 0.5 percentage points decrease from its January projection. Meanwhile, growth is anticipated to rebound in 2027 to reach 4.8%.

Global inflation forecast was raised up by 0.7 percentage points to 4.4% in 2026, citing a double-tap of higher energy and food prices.The likelihood of maintaining elevated interest rates for an extended period is now higher than indicated by the October 2025 projections.

Dark scenarios

The IMF’s “adverse scenario” sees the global economy slashed by 0.8 percentage points off global growth in 2026, dragging it down to 2.5%, while sending headline inflation to 5.4%. This scenario envisions the global economy choked by a sudden 80% spike in oil prices and a 160% surge in Asian and European gas prices.

The real danger lies in the IMF’s “severe scenario.” A global recession — will see a persistent 100% surge in oil prices in 2Q of 2026 and a 200% spike in gas prices — would choke global growth down to just below 2%, a level seen only during the global financial crisis and the pandemic. The impact is structurally deeper and more persistent, with inflation skyrocketing up to 6.1% by 2027, forcing the Fed to hike rates by 100 bps.

Credit pain to hit emerging markets

Emerging markets — excluding China — would face a violent repricing of risk in the worse scenarios. Sovereign spreads are projected to widen by up to 100 bps, while corporate premiums could jump by as much as 200 bps. This freezes the capital flows MENA firms rely on for survival.

This time is different: Central banks won’t have the luxury of cutting rates to support growth, and instead, they will be forced into mandatory tightening to anchor inflation expectations, leaving the private sector to navigate a high-cost, low-liquidity environment alone, the report said.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets felt the signs of diplomatic engagement by regional and global powers. Japan’s Nikkei rose around 0.6%, South Korea’s Kospi gained 2.8%, and MSCI’s broad gauge of Asia-Pacific shares — excluding Japan — reached its highest level in six weeks. US futures are broadly trading flat.

TASI	11,486	+0.5% (YTD: +9.5%)
MSCI Tadawul 30	1,554	+0.5% (YTD: +12.0%)
NomuC	22,965	+0.1% (YTD: -1.4%)
USD : SAR (SAMA)	USD 3.75 Sell	USD 3.75 Buy
Interest rates	4.25% repo	3.75% reverse repo
EGX30	49,979	+1.8% (YTD: +19.5%)
ADX	9,840	+0.6% (YTD: +9.4%)
DFM	5,720	+0.9% (YTD: -5.3%)
S&P 500	6,886	+1.0% (YTD: +0.6%)
FTSE 100	10,609	+0.3% (YTD: +6.8%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,985	+1.4% (YTD: +3.3%)
Brent crude	USD 94.61	-0.2%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 2.60	-0.1%
Gold	USD 4,871	+0.4%
BTC	USD 74,370	-0.4% (YTD: -15.2%)
Sukuk/bond market index	915.46	-0.1% (YTD: -0.4%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	151	-0.0% (YTD: +7.3%)
VIX (Fear gauge)	18.36	-4.0% (YTD: +22.8%)

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI rose 0.5% yesterday on turnover of SAR 6.2 bn. The index is up 9.5% YTD.

In the green: Naseej (+9.9%), Abo Moati (+8.5%), and ELM (+7.0%).

In the red: YC (-4.6%), Petro Rabigh (-2.3%), and Alahli Reit 1 (-2.1%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC rose 0.1% yesterday on turnover of SAR 19.9 mn. The index is down 1.4% YTD.

In the green: Aictec (+11.6%), Ladun (+8.5%), and Osool And Bakheet (+6.8%).

In the red: Lana (-12.7%), Taqat (-8.4%), and DRC (-6.7%).

CALENDAR

APRIL

20-22 April (Monday-Wednesday): Sports Investment Forum (SIF), Riyadh.

20-22 April (Monday-Wednesday): Future Aviation Forum, Riyadh.

MAY

3-9 May (Sunday-Sunday): The Global Sustainability Expo, The Arena Riyadh Venue.

19-21 May (Tuesday-Thursday): The Saudi Entertainment and Amusement Expo, Riyadh Front Exhibition and Conference Center.

24-28 May (Sunday-Thursday): Eid Al Adha holiday.

JUNE

15-17 June (Monday-Wednesday): Aluminum Arabia, The Arena, Riyadh.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Food Exhibition and Conference, Riyadh Front Expo.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Print & Pack, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Riyadh International Industry Week, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Plastics & Petrochem, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Smart Logistics, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

22-24 June (Monday-Wednesday): The Future Hospitality Summit, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

JULY

6 July-23 August (Monday-Sunday): Esports World Cup, Riyadh.

AUGUST

31 August-3 Sep (Monday-Thursday): Leap Tech Conference, Riyadh Exhibition & Convention Center - Malham.

SEPTEMBER

9-10 September (Wednesday-Thursday): Procurement and Supply Chain Futures Forum, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

9-10 September (Wednesday-Thursday): Real Estate Supply Chain Forum, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

15-17 September (Tuesday-Thursday) The Global AI Summit, King Abdulaziz International Convention Center, Riyadh.

23 September (Wednesday): Saudi National Day.

OCTOBER

12-15 October (Monday-Thursday): World Energy Congress, Riyadh.

26-28 October (Monday-Wednesday): ACHEMA Middle East, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

NOVEMBER

24-28 November (Tuesday-Saturday): Aero Middle East and Sand & Fun, Thumamah Airport, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2026:

2H: Sabic’s USD 6.4 bn Fujian project in China to start production;
September: Saudi Paper and Packaging Expo, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center;
November: The UN Trade and Development Global Supply Chain Forum to take place in Saudi Arabia;
November: The Esports Nations Cup, Riyadh;
The World Economic Forum’s Global Collaboration and Growth Meeting, Jeddah;
SkyMove Air Cargo MENA, Riyadh;
The Intervision international music competition will take place in Saudi Arabia.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

The World Water Forum takes place in Riyadh;
The Ocean Race finishes in Amaala on the Red Sea;
Riyadh-Kudmi transmission line to be completed;
Capital Markets Forum takes place in March in Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2Q 2027:

The Hail Region Water Networks Project is expected to be completed.

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