THIS MORNING: Arab Gulf oil producers can restore half the shut capacity in two weeks, IEA says

Good morning, ladies and gents. It’s another day of watching and waiting how the whole situation to the east will unfold. The US blockade of Hormuz is still going —- and energy markets seem to have not fully priced in what the supply shock will mean for the global economy if it persists for much longer.

The IMF is giving us a hint: The Kingdom’s growth forecast was slashed down to 3.1% in 2026, a major 1.4 percentage points decrease from the Fund’s January projection. Global growth forecasts have also been slashed and inflation forecasts inched higher. We have the details in today’s Planet Finance, below.

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The war isn’t slowing down the folks paying at the big table, it seems. The GCC’s sovereign funds deployed almost USD 25 bn during 1Q 2026, even as conflict marred about a third of it. The latest investment came from the Public Investment Fund, which doubled down on EV maker Lucid with a USD 550 mn investment.

Watch this space

ENERGY — Arab Gulf oil producers can restore 50% of their shut capacity in just two weeks once the Strait of Hormuz reopens, and can ramp that up to 80% just a month later, Bloomberg cites the International Energy Agency as saying in its last monthly oil report. The resumption would be contingent on companies mobilizing workers, contractors, and stabilizing supply chains.

The final 20%? That might take longer to restore, primarily due to reduced pressure in the fields and other technical constraints.

BUT- It’s not so easy: Reopening Hormuz has become more complicated with the US naval blockade taking effect earlier this week, pushing crude briefly past USD 100 a barrel and putting regional producers on high alert after Tehran threatened to retaliate against wider maritime infrastructure.

REAL ESTATE — Is the war pushing the rich away from the region? Wealthy residents across the Middle East are ramping up property searches in high-end European hotspots, seeking everything from short-term rentals to permanent homes as ongoing hostilities push families and investors to secure options abroad, Bloomberg reports.

Where is demand going? Interest is rising across Switzerland, Spain, and the UK. Brokers report increased searches for ultra-luxury homes, a spike in inquiries and contracts in Marbella, and stronger demand for prime short-term rentals in London as supply tightens.

What’s behind the shift? The conflict is prompting a rethink among high-net-worth individuals who had gravitated toward GCC cities taxfree income and stability. While the hubs remain resilient, the war dented their safe-haven appeal, nudging some to diversify or temporarily relocate.

The waiting game: Many are opting to rent first rather than commit to a permanent move, according to the business information service. A large-scale capital outflow from the Gulf is unlikely for now, and relocation remains a complex process, leaving most buyers hedging until the situation stabilizes.

INVESTMENT — Safari Group will invest up to EGP 2 bn to launch seven entertainment centers under the global Chuck E. Cheese brand in Egypt over the next four years, the company’s CEO Ali Saleh Al Sagri told Asharq Business. Safari Group’s hospitality subsidiary Unique Hospitality Company and Egypt’s pmaestro will handle management and operations.

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The big story abroad

Washington’s naval blockade on Iran is still in effect and bilateral talks “could be happening over next two days,” US President Donald Trump said overnight. A major sticking point will be Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Washington reportedly proposed a 20-year “suspension” of all nuclear activity — not just a permanent ban of nuclear enrichment. Iran is holding out for a five-year suspension of work on anything nuclear.

The US blockade of Hormuz has tankers stopping or turning around, the FT notes.

Pressure on Tehran is mounting, with Washington deciding not to renew a 30-day waiver of sanctions — set to lapse this Sunday — on Iranian oil at sea, Reuters reports. The waiver has allowed roughly 140 mn barrels of oil to reach global markets.

Lebanon and Israel held their first direct diplomatic talks in decades on Tuesday in Washington, which the US State Department called a “historic milestone.” Iran-aligned Hezbollah was not represented at the sit-down and has long opposed direct talks with Tel Aviv.

MEANWHILE- US banks are breaking earnings records as 1Q financials come out. Investment banks capitalized on a volatile first quarter marked by US intervention in Venezuela and the war on Iran. JPMorgan Chase delivered its highest-ever topline figure, while Citi turned in its best quarterly revenue in a decade.