Another quota hike from OPEC+

Good morning, all. We have a brisk issue for you this morning, led by one expert’s take on what a permanent ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran could mean for Saudi equities. We also dive into a recent KPMG report that looks at the Kingdom’s digital transformation and how it measures up against global competition.

Another hike from Opec+

Opec+ opted to increase production quotas by 188k bbl / d in July, even if many of those barrels can’t physically reach the market. Saudi Arabia and Russia accounted for nearly two-thirds of the increase, with each receiving a 62k bbl / d quota boost, with the Kingdom — the largest swing supplier — targeting 10.4 mn bbl / d next month.

IN CONTEXT- The move marks the fourth consecutive quota increase and the latest step in Opec+’s gradual unwinding of the group’s voluntary production cuts. After putting production hikes on ice till March, Opec agreed to increase production by 206k bbl / d in both April and May, before cooling to 188k bbl / d in June.

A rise on paper: “The group will continue to unwind the voluntary cuts, but only on paper, because there will be no real increase under the current situation in Hormuz,” Kpler’s head of Middle East Energy Analysis Amena Bakr said. Producers with limited optionality — such as Iraq and Kuwait — remain unable to bring additional barrels to the market even if higher output targets are approved.

An empty seat: The meeting is the second gathering since the UAE’s exit, raising questions over how production quotas will eventually be redistributed among the remaining members.

A post-crisis plan is in place: Once shipping through Hormuz resumes, Iraq and Kuwait are expected to ramp up production to recover revenues lost during the disruption, unlike Saudi Arabia, which retains export routes that bypass the strait.

Europe’s turn to probe Paramount

Paramount’s proposed Gulf-backed takeover of Warner Bros. Discovery is running into a new obstacle in Europe, where regulators are examining whether the agreement’s state-linked financing could distort competition — and may push the company to sell off parts of its children’s TV portfolio to get the merger over the line, Bloomberg reports.

What’s happening: The USD 110 bn Paramount-Warner Bros. Discovery takeover is being reviewed under the EU’s Foreign Subsidies Regulation, which gives Brussels the power to investigate whether foreign state support gives companies an unfair advantage in the bloc. According to Bloomberg, officials are weighing whether remedies could include divestments tied to children’s network assets as a condition for approval.

Why it matters: Any forced sale would add pressure on Paramount to line up buyers for those assets on a tight timetable, potentially weakening its negotiating position and complicating the path to closing one of the year’s biggest media tie-ups.

REMEMBER- The agreement is backed by roughly USD 24 bn from the Public Investment Fund, Abu Dhabi’s L’Imad, and the Qatar Investment Authority. That financing has already drawn political attention in Washington, with democratic senators previously calling for a “rigorous and thorough review” of the foreign investment involved, while FCC commissioner Anna Gomez separately raised concerns about foreign ownership of broadcasting assets.

What's next: Paramount faces an initial EU deadline of 7 July. Regulators can clear the move, accept remedies, or open a deeper probe that could delay one of the year's biggest media mergers by several months.

Qemah considers Nomu listing

Car auction platform Qemah is considering an IPO of 30% of its shares on Nomu within the next two years, CEO Abdullah bin Sammar told the Arabic press. The platform expects its valuation to reach around SAR 2 bn at the offering — potentially placing it among the largest firms listed on the Tadawul parallel market, which has a total market cap of around SAR 40 bn.

About Qemah: The platform offers services such as vehicle inspections, accident-history reports, repairs, ins., financing, and new-car listings. The app surpassed 1 mn downloads in its first year, with the total value of auctions conducted through it exceeding SAR 3 bn.

REMEMBER- Nomu’s been seeing strong momentum this year, with MSGA Investment poised to float 11.1 mn shares on the parallel market next week — equivalent to 10% of its IPO capital of 111.1 mn shares. Mayar Holding subsidiary Ziorak also plans to submit an application to the Capital Markets Authority to list 30% of its shares, while KDL Logistics listed on Nomu earlier this year.

Saudi slashes crude prices for Asian buyers

Aramco has reduced the price of its flagship Arab Light crude for Asian buyers by USD 6 per barrel for July, setting the new cost at a USD 9.50 premium above local benchmarks, according to a price list seen by Bloomberg. This marks the second straight month that the oil giant has slashed prices for Asian buyers, following a widely expected cut for June.

The price cut may be associated with Saudi oil refineries making less money, as consumers recoil amid high prices stemming from the Hormuz debacle.

Data point

1.7 mn – that’s the number of pilgrims who took part in this year’s Hajj, 34k more than last year, according to data (pdf) from the General Authority for Statistics. Around 1.55 mn were foreign pilgrims, while 160.6k were citizens and residents. Some 1.49 mn (95.1%) entered the Kingdom through airports, while 54.4k arrived by land and 6.5k by sea.

You’ve spent decades building wealth, and the question now isn’t how to make money — it’s how to make sure it survives you, works across borders, and doesn’t quietly erode while you’re not looking. The rules have changed. Egyptian real estate, once a near-guaranteed store of value, is competing with markets in Greece, Spain, and Dubai.

Whether it’s art as an asset, crowd-funding, or the tax implications quietly stacking up behind that second passport, the toolkit for serious capital deployment has expanded faster than most conventional advice — or most advisors — have.

In Issue 3 of EnterpriseAM Money Matters, we cover the decisions that matter most when you’re at the stage where capital preservation is just as important as capital growth — and where getting it wrong is no longer something you can simply recover from.

Tap or click here to subscribe to the Egypt edition, delivered to your inbox on Wednesday, 10 June.

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The big story abroad

Iran's first strike on Israel since the April ceasefire and Israel’s retaliatory salvo are leading today’s news cycle. The Israeli military claims to have intercepted all the missiles and no casualties have been reported. The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps called the barrage retaliation for Tel Aviv’s strikes on Lebanon, claiming the Israeli attacks violated ceasefire terms, and vowed to continue strikes if hostilities resume. Israel fired back by targeting western and central Iran.

Israel must accept a truce, Trump says: US President Donald Trump said that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “won’t have any choice” but to accept any resolution Washington closes with Tehran. In a phone call with Netanyahu, Trump pressed the Israeli leader not to retaliate. “Israel had its strike, and Iran had its strike. We don't need another one,” Trump was quoted as saying.

Speaking of which: Trump has publicly urged Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh to cut interest rates, escalating tensions just before Warsh’s inaugural policy meeting. Trump’s demands run counter to current market expectations, which are inclined toward higher borrowing costs following a surge in US employment numbers.

A new and improved ChatGPT: OpenAI’s biggest revamp since its launch of ChatGPT will involve repositioning the chatbot into a “superapp,” which will merge coding tools and AI agents. The changes come as part of a broader evolution at the AI startup, whereby it will shift resources to secure lucrative customers and compete more aggressively with rival Anthropic.

Meanwhile, a high stakes battle unfolds in Italy’s banking sector: Italian banking giants Intesa Sanpaolo and BPER Banca teamed up to structure a joint counter-proposal to take over Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MPS) — considered to be the world’s oldest bank. The move came hours after Banco BPM floated an EUR 50 bn tie-up with MPS.