Saudi Arabia to cut oil prices for Asia

Good morning, ladies and gents. The news cycle this morning is dominated by a bombshell that dropped overnight — the UAE abruptly announced its departure from Opec as of this Friday. The decision, which Abu Dhabi maintains was not influenced by any other members of the group, is ostensibly a move for the UAE to leave behind Opec’s production quota system and prioritize its flexibility to pump more oil to finance its economic growth.

The announcement came as Gulf leaders gathered in Jeddah, albeit without Emirati President Mohamed bin Zayed, who sent Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed in his stead.

The consultative meeting of GCC leaders — the first in-person gathering since the region was drawn into the Iran war two months ago — focused on the fallout from Iranian missile and drone attacks targeting civilian infrastructure across the Gulf, with leaders jointly condemning the strikes as a violation of sovereignty, and calling for tighter coordination to protect regional security.

The talks also come amid criticism that the GCC’s response so far has been “the weakest in history,” Reuters quotes senior UAE diplomatic advisor Anwar Gargash as saying.

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PSA

The Justice Ministry introduced a new enforcement system that updates how court rulings and debt recovery are handled. The new enforcementlaw caps travel bans at three years and sets penalties ranging between SAR 100k and SAR 1 mn and up to three years in prison for evading court rulings. The system also expands court powers to freeze and track assets, while protecting essentials like housing, basic belongings, and part of salaries from seizure. The law will be effective 180 days after its official gazette publication, replacing its 2012 predecessor.

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OIL — Saudi Arabia is expected to cut June crude prices for Asian buyers by USD 5-12 / bbl, Reuters reports, signaling a retreat from the record-high premiums triggered by the US-Israeli conflict with Iran. That would bring Arab Light crude prices to USD 7.50-14.50 higher than Dubai and Oman average quotes.

The expected price cuts would come as the spot market has cooled dramatically, with Dubai’s premiums collapsing by more than 50% to USD 15.22 / bbl.

Why this matters: The arrival of cheaper replacement cargoes from the US and West Africa, alongside increased Russian purchases by Indian refiners, is pushing the Kingdom to defend its market share. On top of that, Chinese refiners — which are Saudi’s top buyers — are squeezed by poor margins and have slashed May purchases to record lows of only 20 mn bbl after previous price hikes. Meanwhile, Aramco has successfully rerouted exports through the Red Sea port of Yanbu to bypass the volatile Strait of Hormuz, maintaining flows despite the regional conflict.

REGULATION — The Capital Market Authority (CMA) is seeking feedback on a set of changes to simplify and speed up M&As, according to a Tadawul statement. The draft proposal went out on Monday for a 45-day public consultation.

Introducing… shelf registration: One of the proposals would allow listed companies to pre-register shares with the CMA, allowing them to pull the trigger on asset purchases or acquisitions over a three-year period without seeking fresh regulatory approvals each time.

The draft tightens M&A governance on voting and information sharing. Shareholders with conflicts of interest would count toward a quorum to avoid stalled meetings, but would be barred from voting on the transaction. It also allows limited sharing of non-public information with key shareholders during negotiations, subject to notifying the CMA and inking non-trading agreements. Lastly, shareholders with stakes in both the acquiring and target companies would be allowed to vote in both entities, provided they are not related parties in the target company.

DISRUPTION WATCH — Reopening the Strait of Hormuz will take more than a ceasefire, with a coalition of over 30 countries led by Britain and France now grappling with three hurdles: mine clearance, naval protection, and shipping ins., Bloomberg reports.

Iran’s mines alone could take weeks or months to clear. Demining is a slow, risky, and resource-intensive business requiring escorts, air cover, and sustained efforts to prevent re-mining. Clearing a safe channel would depend on a joint effort, combining European mine-hunting capabilities with US intelligence and defensive support. Even then, commercial ships would still need escorts, clear engagement rules, and tight operational coordination.

But a partial clearance may be enough to get by: US Energy Secretary Chris Wright believes not all mines would need to be removed for transit to resume, arguing that establishing a safe navigable corridor could be done relatively quickly. US estimates suggest full clearance could take up to six months.

Ins. is the other major sticking point. With the risk of renewed hostilities still hanging over the waterway, war-risk premiums are likely to stay prohibitively high — leaving governments to potentially step in as insurers of last resort to get trade moving again.

ENERGY — Aramco will keep suspending liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) shipments from its Juaymah export facility through May, as the site has yet to recover from the structural damage sustained in late February, Bloomberg reports, citing people familiar with the matter. Repairs have reportedly been delayed, preventing a restart in exports even if regional shipping routes improve.

Why this matters: Juaymah handles about 3.5% of global waterborne LPG exports, making the outage a meaningful disruption in a niche but important fuel market. The supply squeeze has pushed LPG prices higher and forced buyers — particularly in Asia and India, where LPG is widely used for cooking — to seek alternatives.

Data point

7% — that’s the percentage of board seats held by women across the GCC’s 759 publicly listed companies, according to the 2026 GCC Board Gender Index report by Heriot-Watt University and Aurora50. That figure remained essentially flat y-o-y, with women’s board representation coming in at 6.9% in 2025.

The Saudi gap: Saudi Arabia is at the bottom of the GCC’s board gender diversity rankings, with women holding just 2.9% of the 2,014 available board seats in the Kingdom’s publicly listed companies. UAE tops the list with 15%, followed by Bahrain (10.5%), Oman (7%), Kuwait (5.6%), and Qatar (3.2%). Saudi Arabia and the UAE are the only two countries where women have secured seats across all sectors.

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The big story abroad

The UAE’s Opec exit is dominating the front pages this morning, as the foreign press tries to understand the move and its implications for energy markets and the region. We dive into the decision, what it means for us, and what comes next in the news well, below.

MEANWHILE- The US Federal Reserve will announce its decision on interest rates this evening. Pundits widely expect it to leave rates unchanged.

AND- Transatlantic unity was the main takeaway from King Charles’ address to the UScongress. The UK monarch urged the US to move away from isolation and highlighted the importance of Washington’s participation with Europe, Nato allies, and Ukraine, calling on the countries to “ignore the clarion calls to become ever more inward-looking.”

Drama in the tech world: Elon Musk’s legal feud with OpenAI founders is heating up after they faced off in court — the Tesla founder is claiming that the founders behind the ChatGPT maker broke pledges to remain a nonprofit AI research lab.

And speaking of OpenAI: Investor confidence in the AI boom wavered yesterday following OpenAI’s failure to meet its targets for users and revenues. OpenAI-linked firms, including Oracle and SoftBank, faced a market sell-off soon after, with some shares sliding over 4%