The proportionality factor

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: Barclays returns to Saudi Arabia with KAFD office

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Earnings season is still going strong, with some unexpected results and details under the hood. Two companies grew revenue and lost profit, one swung back into black without selling any more than it did last year, and the biggest miner in the Kingdom is now earning most of its money from metals that were an afterthought 12 months ago.

For Maaden, the picture only becomes clear once you take a step back. Two of its three divisions set records and the third undid most of the good work, and the sulfur and ammonia story behind that is the part with consequences for next year’s guidance.

Worth your time this morning: Our look at what the Capital Market Authority’s disclosure push actually means on the ground. Fund managers tell us transparency should bring down the risk premium foreign investors demand, with the caveat that the smallest houses are the ones who will feel the compliance pinch.

And on the lighter side, Riyadh’s International Cat Show runs through tomorrow at the convention center, with over 100 cats a day (except your own — leave your pets at home). Further down the line, the Ethnosport Cultural Festival brings traditional sports competitors in starting 19 November, and the Six Kings Slam has been moved to the end of December with all six of the world’s top-ranked men’s tennis players on the card.

Barclays is back

British bank Barclays has opened an office in Riyadh’s King Abdullah Financial District (KAFD) more than a decade after exiting the Kingdom, with Majed Al Hassoun (LinkedIn) serving as both CEO and head of investment banking at Barclays Capital Saudi, according to a press release. Al Hassoun — previously CEO of State Street Saudi Arabia — will lead the bank’s local investment banking and global markets business, serving corporate, government, and institutional clients. Barclays also named Susheel Jain (LinkedIn) as CFO.

REMEMBER- The bank announced its return last October with a provisional license from the Capital Market Authority (CMA) and plans to open a KAFD regional headquarters in 2026. The CMA cleared Barclays Capital Saudi to begin arranging and advising activities earlier this month.

Lucid gets a lifeline

The Public Investment Fund (PIF) has agreed to add USD 1.75 bn to its delayed draw term loan facility (DDTL) with Lucid Group, a loss-making US electric vehicle maker in which the fund is the largest shareholder. Lucid said in a statement yesterday that the expanded facility gives it more financial flexibility as it works through a turnaround program, and will fund operations and key investments into the fourth quarter of 2027.

Earnings have fallen short: Lucid posted 3Q revenue of USD 350 mn, a 4% y-o-y increase. Through its ongoing liquidity conservation initiatives, the company trimmed its sequential freecash burn by 30% from the previous quarter to USD 1.04 bn; however, both its revenue and adjusted per-share loss of USD 2.30 fell short of analyst estimates.

The big picture: The fund’s expanded loan facility comes as Saudi Arabia aims to put a locally designed EV on the road within five years. Lucid also aims to develop a Saudi EV, though localization, supply chain constraints, and continued reliance on imported components remain obstacles. The company opened a dedicated body-and-paint repair center in Riyadh last month, adding collision repair and diagnostics capacity to its studios, service centers, and mobile service operation in the Kingdom.

The road to TASI

Saudi IT firm Zone is planning USD 30 mn in regional investments over the next three years as it eyes a potential listing on Tadawul by late 2028 or early 2029, CEO Farid Hussein told Asharq Business, without revealing a potential offering size, financial advisors, or regulatory filing plans.

Egypt gets a third of the spending: Zone plans to invest USD 10 mn in digital transformation projects for government and private-sector clients in Egypt, a market Hussein expects to contribute 25-30% of the company’s total revenue within three years.

More markets in sight: The firm is looking to expand its digital transformation business in Syria and Libya as reconstruction prospects open up. Hussein said partnerships and projects have already been agreed upon in both countries, with announcements expected soon. The company also plans to establish a presence in additional Arab and African markets, adding to its existing branches in Jordan, Egypt, Oman, Libya, and Syria.

War Watch

Saudi air forces continue strikes on Houthis: The Houthis say that the Saudi-led coalition carried out 103 airstrikes over the past 24 hours, targeting civilian sites in the governorates of Marib, Saada, Hodeidah, Taiz, Lahj, and Al Jawf, wounding and killing several individuals. These strikes brought the total number of strikes since the escalation began to nearly 4.6k, the Houthi spokesman said.

The coalition destroyed three Houthi sites used to build ballistic missiles, according to a coalition statement issued yesterday. The targets were a factory that produced and assembled missile components, a chemical plant that produced and mixed solid fuel for the missiles, and a workshop that put together their electronic systems.

The Kingdom’s East-West oil pipeline was struck in the Medina region yesterday, sparking a small fire but causing no injuries or deaths, SPA reports, citing an Energy Ministry source. The pipeline kept operating normally.

Data point

55.5 points — that’s where Saudi Arabia’s Business Confidence Index stood in October, its second consecutive monthly dip and lowest reading since April, according to a Gastat report (pdf). The index slipped 1.1 points from 56.6 in September and is well short of the 60+ readings it held before plunging to 52.1 in March, sitting 5.6 points below October 2025. It remains above the 50-point threshold separating optimism from pessimism.

All three sectors softened: Construction recorded the highest confidence at 56.1 points, followed by industry at 55.4 and services at 54.2, with Gastat pinning the declines on weaker confidence around sales and input costs. Services saw the sharpest drop, down 1.2 points.

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The big story abroad

Lenders cooling on AI debt: Banks and credit investors are scrutinizing AI-related financing more closely and are wary of adding exposure to borrowers. Some say they would be hesitant to fund more transactions, even with guarantees from the biggest names in tech, Reuters reports, citing banking and credit sources. The pullback follows a selloff that wiped USD 2.5 tn off the Nasdaq 100 on Thursday, plus worries that the midterm results would bring more oversight on data centers.

Spying reports are rattling Nvidia investors. The chipmaker’s shares fell more than 5% yesterday after the company opened an investigation into reports that CEO Jensen Huang had been targeted by a Chinese intelligence operation. China has denied trying to entrap Huang, dismissing the allegations as “unsubstantiated” and “nothing but smears against China.”

France is blaming Iran for last month’s supermarket cyberattack. Paris summoned Iran’s ambassador and plans retaliatory sanctions “at a European level” over the October hack, which hit some 700 retailers. The hackers reportedly took remote control of store refrigerators and freezers, switched on defrost cycles to push up temperatures, and destroyed large amounts of fresh and frozen food. Some of the equipment caught fire. Tehran did not immediately comment on the allegations.

Whether Saudi’s fund-disclosure push draws capital comes down to how proportionately it’s applied

The Capital Market Authority’s (CMA) push for asset-level disclosure should deepen the private funds market, but only if smaller managers can keep up. Transparency should lower the risk premium investors demand and help local funds compete for foreign capital, First Financial Markets analyst Ahmad Chreim tells EnterpriseAM. The question is cost — whether the rules stay practical and proportionate to each fund’s size and complexity, Alkhair Capital assistant portfolio manager Fardeen Akhtar tells us.

The market that outgrew its disclosure

The CMA rolled out draft amendments requiring real estate, private equity, and venture funds to report holding by holding, the latest in a run of CMA moves since Mazen Al Sudairi took over as chairman, all pulling toward a market whose numbers investors can rely on and whose capital pools run deeper.

The timing tracks the growth: Private fund assets reached around SAR 756 bn across more than 1.8k funds in 2Q 2026, up about 30%, Argaam Investments business solutions manager Ahmed Ramzy said.

That expansion is what the rules are chasing. Ramzy sees no evidence of a valuation crisis, but unlisted assets with no market price still need more transparency. Chreim calls it “a market at a natural stage of maturation rather than one with a serious gap,” with the regulator standardizing disclosure so investors can compare funds like for like. The gaps that remain, Akhtar says, are widest in real estate and private equity, a pattern common to private markets globally — these assets lean on estimates, so a strong reported return doesn’t show how much came from realized gains and how much from unrealized ones. Private funds aren’t necessarily overvalued, he added; what’s missing is visibility into how the valuations are set.

What it changes for investors

Two private equity funds can post the same return, one having realized it through exits and the other holding it mostly on paper. Telling them apart is the point of the draft, Akhtar says, and it’s what today’s disclosure obscures. The amendments would put quarterly top holdings in front of investors, along with where distributions come from, whether income or asset sales, giving them what they need to judge performance and the risk behind it.

Seeing the holdings isn’t enough on its own, Ramzy adds. Investors also need the valuation method, whether discounted cashflow or multiples, and the assumptions behind it, since the reported value of an unlisted asset means little without the math that produced it.

The same logic runs through the conflict-of-interest rules. They aren’t new in Saudi Arabia, Ramzy says, but the draft expands them from the bare fact of a conflict to its nature, the parties involved, its potential impact, and the manager’s response. Even then, disclosure has a ceiling. “Disclosing a related-party transaction doesn’t tell investors whether it was fairly priced,” Akhtar cautions. “That’s where proper oversight matters.” That is more important in a market where agreements are often negotiated directly and prices aren’t observable.

The cost, and who carries it

The burden falls hardest on the smallest managers. A firm running one or two funds lacks the compliance teams larger houses can lean on, Akhtar tells us, so staffing, valuation, and reporting costs could weigh on profitability relative to fund size — and thinning out smaller managers would cost the market the diversity it needs. His fix is proportionality — standardized templates, reasonable transition, periods and requirements scaled to each fund’s complexity, without lowering investor protection.

The harder-to-value corners are the other pressure point. In venture capital especially, thin financial histories make valuations subjective, Akhtar says, and stricter reporting could make managers wary of early-stage deals where information is limited or commercially sensitive; he wants consistent valuation standards that still leave room to explain uncertainty and shield what’s sensitive. Ramzy frames the same balance as structuring openness while protecting sensitive details — keeping portfolio companies’ information private while making value, performance, and risk legible, the gap he says has kept capital on the sidelines.

Chreim reads the same concern more calmly. The consultation is designed to surface exactly this, he says, and the draft pulls scattered disclosure obligations into a single section of the regulations, which should make compliance clearer. Strong disclosure can even work in smaller managers’ favor, he added: it “becomes a credibility signal when raising capital.”

Net positive, if the execution holds

Weigh it up, and the analysts expect a net gain, one that builds over the medium to long term. Transparency lowers the risk premium investors demand and helps Saudi funds compete for foreign capital as the market opens, Chreim says, and it matches the CMA’s other recent moves such as opening financing funds to public offering and simplifying fund structures, which raise standards and widen the market at once. PE and VC investors already expect rigorous valuation reporting, he adds, so clear, consistent practice tends to widen the investor base.

The catch is execution. Transparency is one draw among several, Ramzy said — alongside expected returns, exit opportunities, and manager quality — and while he sees no evidence that compliance costs will outweigh the benefits, that rests on how easily the rules can be implemented. Akhtar lands in the same place: larger managers can absorb the costs more comfortably, but “if [the requirements] are practical and proportionate to the size and complexity of funds, I think the benefits will outweigh the costs.”

Makkah hands its SAR 5.7 bn Hajj-transport build to the private sector

Makkah is handing its Hajj-season transport build-out to the private sector. The General Transport Center, the executive arm of the Royal Commission for Makkah City and Holy Sites, has signed SAR 5.7 bn in agreements for Wasel Al Haram, a network of parking facilities, stations, and transport corridors feeding the central area and the Grand Mosque, SPA reports. All three investment packages are public-private partnerships financed entirely by the private side, signed at the Hajj Conference and Exhibition.

Two consortia split the work: A group comprising Saudi Alqaid, Spain’s Moventis, and Indonesia’s Waskita took the first and third packages, with the Mawgif consortium taking the second. The project spans 19 stations and parking facilities across seven corridors over 3.1 mn sqm, running a fleet of 3.2k buses, and is designed to carry 205 mn passengers a year.

Why it matters: The project extends Saudi Arabia’s shift towards private-sector financing of municipal infrastructure, with investors taking on costs traditionally borne by the Kingdom. Long-term concessions ease the load on public finances while drawing in international investors like Moventis and Waskita.

REMEMBER- Makkah is still tapping the private sector to rebuild itself: The Royal Commission has awarded SAR 13.3 bn in redevelopment projects across six districts, and Umm Al Qura sold another Masar plot for SAR 139 mn, after SAR 183.7 mn of Zone 2 land went to Makkiyoon Urban Developers and SAR 603.8 mn of Zone 3 land to Al Diyar Al Arabia. Thakher Development is lining up further land-block sales after Indonesia’s Danantara committed more than SAR 6 bn for a hotel and 14 plots.

Saudi industrials’ earnings split as war disruption meets cost control and one-off gains

The war’s disruption ran through Saudi industrials’ latest earnings — collapsing phosphate margins at Maaden, and Gulf rig suspensions at Ades and Arabian Drilling — while cost control and one-offs like KEC’s land sale and ins. proceeds cushioned the blow across an uneven quarter.

Maaden’s margins buckle under phosphate costs

Saudi Arabian Mining’s (Maaden) bottom line shrank in 3Q 2026 even as two of its three business units posted record results, with a collapse in phosphate margins outweighing record performances in aluminum and gold. Net income fell 23.7% y-o-y to SAR 1.7 bn while revenue rose 11.3% y-o-y to SAR 11.1 bn, the company said in a Tadawul filing and earnings release (pdf).

Where the margin went: Phosphate EBITDA plummeted 83% y-o-y to SAR 507 mn, dragging the segment’s margin to 10% from 52% a year earlier even as realized diammonium phosphate (DAP) prices rose 15% to USD 893 a tonne. The damage came from higher costs and lost sales: record sulfur input costs, higher logistics costs, and the absence of ammonia export sales, with ammonia production down 49% y-o-y. DAP output recovered to 1.6 mn tonnes, up 33% q-o-q, as the sulfur shortages that hit 2Q eased.

The records underneath: Aluminum delivered its second straight record quarter, with EBITDA up 108% y-o-y to SAR 1.6 bn and its EBITDA margin widening to 43% from 27%, carried by a 41% jump in realized aluminum prices to USD 3.7k per tonne. Gold and growth metals booked what Maaden called a record performance excluding exploration spend, with EBITDA up 71% to SAR 1.5 bn, with both levers firing — realized prices up 22% to USD 4.3k per ounce and production up 22% to 139k ounces. Together, aluminum and gold generated roughly SAR 3.1 bn of quarterly EBITDA against phosphate’s SAR 0.5 bn, a near-complete inversion from a year ago when phosphate alone generated SAR 2.9 bn.

The nine-month view is far gentler: Across 9M 2026, net income slipped just 3.2% y-o-y to SAR 5.5 bn, cushioned by SAR 375 mn in one-off ins. proceeds in the phosphate unit, while revenue rose 10.5% to SAR 30.9 bn.

Capex comes down, export disruption drags on: CEO Bob Wilt said Maaden's phosphate team had “responded to a complex situation and restored granulated production to levels comparable to last year.” Yet the company cut total capex guidance by USD 1 bn from the USD 4.15 bn flagged in February and kept full-year ammonia guidance withdrawn.

Three commodities, three different outlooks: DAP production guidance remains at 6-6.5 mn tonnes, with Chinese export restrictions remaining in place longer than expected and record input costs underpinning prices. The aluminum market is heading into a supply deficit of around 800k tonnes in 4Q, but is expected to rebalance in 2027. Gold production is tracking toward the upper end of its 470k-515k oz guidance range, with all-in sustaining costs expected to come in below the USD 1.38k-1.5k per oz guide. Phosphate, meanwhile, hinges on sulfur costs and the resumption of ammonia exports.

Bigger fleet, smaller margins

Ades Holding’s expanded operations abroad boosted revenue in 3Q, but Gulf rig suspensions and rising costs more than halved its bottom line. Net income fell 55.8% y-o-y to SAR 94.9 mn as revenue jumped 34.8% to SAR 2.23 bn, according to a Tadawul filing. Costs grew faster than revenue: gross income rose 16.4% to SAR 704.5 mn, while operating income edged up 3.2% to SAR 514 mn.

What’s weighing on the bottom line? Some of Ades’ Saudi offshore rigs were suspended at the end of 1Q amid the regional conflict, and the suspensions were still dragging on results in 3Q, according to the company’s earnings release (pdf). Higher depreciation and interest expenses and one-off ins. costs added to the hit. Ades has since received resumption notices for all the suspended rigs, but “subsequent regional developments” have slowed their return to full operations, the company said.

International growth is carrying the top line. Revenue growth came from the rigs Ades took over from Shelf Drilling last year and higher contributions from its mature-field production business in Egypt. Saipem’s shallow-water drilling unit also made its first contribution after the SAR 1.07 bn acquisition closed in mid-September.

Nine-month results show the same pressure. Net income declined 23% y-o-y to SAR 459.8 mn despite a 44% rise in revenue to SAR 6.77 bn on growth outside Saudi Arabia, where revenue fell 13.1%. Gross income grew 29.2% to SAR 2.31 bn, and operating income increased 17.9% to SAR 1.72 bn. The company blamed the weaker bottom line mainly on the temporary rig suspensions and on the Shelf Drilling rigs it acquired, which earn thinner margins than its original fleet. One-off ins. expenses added to the pressure, while a one-off gain from buying Saipem’s rigs below their assessed value partly offset it.

More work lined up in India: Ades secured two three-year contracts worth a combined SAR 439.6 mn, including mobilization fees, from India’s Oil and Natural Gas Corporation for its Key Singapore and Admarine 10 offshore jack-up rigs, according to a separate disclosure (pdf). The rigs are expected to complete their existing contracts by the end of 4Q 2026, with work under the new agreements scheduled to begin by the end of 1Q 2027. Revenue from India more than doubled to SAR 426 mn in 9M 2026 as Shelf rigs joined the fleet there, according to the earnings release.

Back in the black

Arabian Drilling swung to net income of SAR 31.4 mn in 3Q from a net loss of SAR 9.4 mn a year earlier, despite a 3% y-o-y drop in revenue to SAR 810.7 mn on lower rig activity, according to a Tadawul filing. The company credited the turnaround to more efficient rig moves, cost-cutting, lower net finance costs, and a smaller tax bill. Gross income rose 32% to SAR 133.2 mn, while operating income climbed 48.6% to SAR 82.2 mn.

Offshore rigs are coming back online. Revenue rose 6% q-o-q as four offshore rigs resumed operations, partly offset by weaker land-rig activity. Arabian Drilling suspended some of its Gulf offshore rigs in late March as a precaution, citing the “regional situation.” The return of these rigs in mid-August helped Arabian Drilling recover from an SAR 31.5 mn net loss in 2Q.

The 9M picture remains much weaker. Net income plunged 90.6% y-o-y to SAR 6.9 mn as revenue fell 8.1% to SAR 2.4 bn, which the company blamed on the offshore rig suspensions and the absence of long rig moves this year. Gross income declined 24.7% to SAR 304 mn, while operating income dropped 38% to SAR 160.8 mn. Cost efficiencies and lower general and administrative expenses helped cushion the impact.

REMEMBER- Arabian Drilling's backlog reached a record SAR 18 bn after it secured a four-year, SAR 2 bn offshore contract from Khafji Joint Operations for four jack-up rigs in September. The company expects revenue from the contract to begin flowing toward the end of 4Q 2026.

KEC’s land sale powers rebound

Knowledge Economic City's (KEC) bottom line surged in 3Q as a major land sale and stronger residential project margins helped the Madinah developer swing back into the black. Net income more than tripled to SAR 99.7 mn, up 253% y-o-y, while revenue jumped 98.8% to SAR 245.1 mn, according to a Tadawul filing. Gross income rose 251.6% to SAR 181.8 mn, while operating income climbed 455.6% to SAR 139.7 mn.

A land sale did much of the heavy lifting. KEC recognized SAR 169.6 mn in revenue from a land parcel sold in July, accounting for around 69% of its quarterly top line. A newly opened hotel also added to revenue.

Foreign ownership rules are helping: The company reported better margins on its ongoing residential projects and attributed higher residential revenue to the new non-Saudi property ownership law, as KEC was designated a foreign-ownership zone in June. The company told us that month it was readying three developments for foreign buyers and reworking its sale processes to handle them.

The YTD picture: For 9M 2026, KEC reported SAR 71.3 mn in net income against an SAR 26.7 mn loss a year earlier, as revenue rose 40.2% to SAR 330.5 mn. Operating income reached SAR 119.4 mn, reversing a SAR 25 mn operating loss in 9M 2025. The company still had accumulated losses of SAR 371 mn, equivalent to 10.93% of its capital, at the end of September.

Al Babtain’s gains outrun slowing sales

Al Babtain Power and Telecom kept its bottom-line growing in 3Q 2026 though the gain leaned on cost control more than demand. Net income rose 16.7% y-o-y to SAR 148.5 mn, while revenue edged up just 1.5% to SAR 788.5 mn, according to a Tadawul filing. Lower administrative, marketing, and financing costs did the work; the modest top-line growth that came through was from the poles-and-lighting and towers-and-steel-structures businesses.

The nine-month picture told the same story: Net income climbed 41.5% y-o-y to SAR 443.4 mn, outpacing a 12% increase in revenue to SAR 2.4 bn, on the same cost prudence and sales factors as 3Q.

Dividends halved: Al Babtain's board approved a SAR 31.97 mn dividend for 3Q 2026, equivalent to SAR 0.50 per share, down from SAR 1 per share for the same quarter last year, according to a separate disclosure. The payment date will be announced later.

Ardara begins early construction on Al Wadi

Al Wadi breaks ground

PIF-owned Ardara has started early construction works on the first cluster of its 2.5 mn sqm Al Wadi development in Abha, which will include residential, hospitality, and waterfront facilities, Zawya reports. The developer also signed two infrastructure agreements, tapping Shibh Al Jazira Contracting for sewerage works and Dar Al Riyadh to manage and supervise infrastructure development. Contract values and completion timelines were not disclosed.

REMEMBER- Ardara appointed Parsons and OBMI in 2024 for Al Wadi’s infrastructure and architectural design, and last year unveiled the project’s first phase, which includes hotels, apartments, villas, and retail space. The developer plans to deploy more than SAR 4 bn through a real estate fund with Sumou Holding to finance the phased development.

Knauf takes near-total control of United Mining

Knauf has settled its buyout of United Mining Industries and is moving to delist it. The German building-materials group’s tender offer closed on Sunday with its stake rising to 99.3% from 63.2%, after shareholders tendered about 5.05 mn shares (36.1% of capital) into the SAR 57-a-share offer that ran from 27 September to 4 November, the company said in a Tadawul filing. With roughly 0.7% left outstanding, Knauf intends to ask the CMA to approve a mandatory offer for the remainder at no less than SAR 57, then delist United Mining, subject to CMA and shareholder approval.

Knauf is paying what it paid in May. It built its original 63.2% stake, about 8.85 mn shares, from major shareholders in May for SAR 504.5 mn, which works out to SAR 57.01 a share by our math. So the tender offered minority holders the same SAR 57 the controlling shareholder paid half a year earlier, with no premium for coming in late.

Moving upstream

Asmo has expanded its procurement services for Aramco’s upstream operations to cover drilling, chemicals, and project materials, moving beyond general supplies and maintenance, repair, and operations materials, according to a press release. The Aramco-DHL Supply Chain joint venture now manages more than 470 procurement agreements with 330 suppliers covering 65k material items, up from 380 agreements, 190 suppliers, and 56k items in April. Asmo says it plans to add more categories through 2027 and is targeting more than USD 8 bn in annual procurement activity by 2030.

REMEMBER- Asmo operates under a 15-year agreement with Aramco to provide procurement and logistics services.

Developing-world debt hits record USD 9.4 tn as private lenders return, at a price

External debt in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) climbed 5.5% y-o-y to a record USD 9.4 tn in 2025, according to the World Bank’s International Debt Report 2026 (pdf). This is the fastest pace since 2021 and more than four times the 2022-2024 average. It came as capital markets reopened (at a price), the USD weakened against other currencies, and private investors were willing to lend.

A weaker USD flattered the headline: Currency valuation effects accounted for 28.2% of the rise in public and publicly-backed debt, the report says. The real driver was private money. Debt owed to private creditors rose by 5.2% in 2025, reaching USD 5 tn, which is a huge leap from the 0.6% rate recorded a year earlier. The reopening of bond markets came at a price too. Bond issuance by LMIC public-sector borrowers rose 34.6% to USD 250.6 bn, or 68.1% of new disbursements.

The poorest borrowers are paying the most: Countries eligible for International Development Association (IDA) saw their external debt rise 8.1% to USD 1.3 tn and paid an average 8.2% on new commitments, the highest since the late 1980s. The interest rate gap between what these borrowers pay to private lenders and what they pay official creditors widened to 5.5 percentage points from 3.4 points in 2016.

Money is flowing back in, but debt service is still rising: LMICs’ total debt service rose 1.9% to USD 1.4 tn in 2025, a fifth straight annual increase, with payments to bondholders up 13.7% to USD 363.1 bn. Although the 2022-2025 period saw LMICs pay out roughly USD 436.1 bn more than they received, net long-term flows swung to a USD 45.4 bn inflow after a USD 118.4 bn outflow in 2024.

Market access has not faded in 2026: Several countries — including India, Indonesia, Angola, and the Philippines — had already passed their full-year 2025 volumes by August 2026, even as the Middle East conflict that began in late February raised inflation and borrowing costs across emerging markets, the IMF says, as well as commodity prices.

In our region, debt is growing faster than income: External debt in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan grew 5.8% to USD 598 bn at end-2025, and the region’s debt-to-gross national income (GNI) ratio rose to 29.4% from 26.7% — the biggest one-year jump of any LMIC region — even as debt service eased to 3.1% of GNI. Relative to income, Sub-Saharan Africa carries one of the heaviest burdens: external debt there equals 48% of GNI, up from 34.4% in 2015.

The bank puts Egypt’s external debt at USD 164.3 bn at end-2025, up 5.3% y-o-y and equal to 47% of GNI. Private creditors hold some USD 51.2 bn of the USD 127 bn public and publicly-backed portion (c. 40%), against USD 41.9 bn owed to multilaterals, USD 33.8 bn to bilateral lenders, and a further USD 34.4 bn in short-term debt. Egypt also ranked among the largest IMF recipients of all LMICs in 2025, the report notes. New private commitments came at an average of 7.8% against 5.1% from official creditors.

REMEMBER- The Central Bank of Egypt’s (CBE) own external position report put total external debt at USD 161.2 bn at end-FY 2024/25 (stock-to-GDP 44.2%), and a later CBE print put it at USD 166.7 bn at end-June 2026 (pdf).

No GCC state is covered by the report, and Saudi Arabia appears in Egypt’s numbers only as a creditor — owed USD 6.4 bn, behind Russia’s USD 7.1 bn.

Why it matters: The money that is coming back is the money that can leave. Private lending “expands in favorable global conditions and contracts sharply when conditions tighten,” the report says, while official lending is “highly countercyclical” by comparison. That is the exposure in Egypt’s mix: the steadier money comes from official lenders, and the market that reopened is the more expensive half.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets broadly gained ground earlier today. South Korea’s Kospi rose 3.5% and Japan’s Nikkei surged 2.6%, spurred by Wall Street’s gains, tech sector momentum, and easing crude prices. MSCI Asia Pacific closed 2% higher, even as US stock futures held steady.

TASI	10,107	+0.9% (YTD: -3.7%)
MSCI Tadawul 30	1,375	+1.0% (YTD: -0.9%)
NomuC	21,687	-0.3% (YTD: -6.9%)
USD : SAR (SAMA)	USD 3.75 Sell	USD 3.75 Buy
Interest rates	4.25% repo	3.75% reverse repo
EGX30	51,415	+1.2% (YTD:+22.9%)
ADX	9,483	+1.0% (YTD: -5.1%)
DFM	6,087	+1.0% (YTD: +0.7%)
S&P 500	7,550	+2.4% (YTD:+10.3%)
FTSE 100	10,783	+1.0 (YTD: +8.6%)
Euro Stoxx 50	6,290	+1.9% (YTD: +8.5%)
Brent crude	USD 92.57	-5.9%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.20	-0.5%
Gold	USD 4,147	+0.8%
BTC	USD 75,024	+0.8% (YTD: -14.4%)
Sukuk/bond market index	894.84	0.0% (YTD: -2.7%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	149.69	-0.1% (YTD: -1.5%)
VIX (Fear gauge)	19.92	-22.3% (YTD: +33.2%)

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI rose 0.9% yesterday on turnover of SAR 4.3 bn. The index is down 6.7% YTD.

In the green: Anaam International Holding Group (+10.0%), Fitaihi Holding Group (+7.8%), and Al-Babtain Power and Telecommunication (+7.4%).

In the red: Almunajem Foods (-9.1%), Saudi Paper Manufacturing Company (-6.0%), and Alamar Foods (-4.2%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC fell 0.3% yesterday on turnover of SAR 18.3 mn. The index is down 6.9% YTD.

In the green: Amwaj International (+15.7%), Hedab Alkhaleej Trading (+9.9%), and Natural Gas Distribution (+8.2%).

In the red: Molan Steel (-17.7%), Osool and Bakheet Investment (-9.4%), and Miral Dental Clinics (-7.4%).

CALENDAR

NOVEMBER

11-12 November (Wednesday-Thursday): Aluminum Arabia, The Arena, Riyadh.

29 November-1 December (Sunday-Tuesday): The UN Trade and Development Global Supply Chain Forum, Riyadh.

29 November-1 December (Sunday-Tuesday): The Global Logistics Forum, King Abdulaziz International Convention Centre, Riyadh.

DECEMBER

14-16 December (Monday-Wednesday): The Innovation Driven Water Sustainability Conference (IDWS 2026), Jeddah

2027

JANUARY

6 January (Wednesday): The Transport General Authority’s executive regulations for self-driving passenger transport takes effect.

12-14 January (Tuesday-Thursday): The Future Minerals Forum (FMF), Riyadh.

FEBRUARY

1-3 February (Monday-Wednesday): Energy Regulators Regional Association annual conference, Riyadh.

1-4 February (Monday-Thursday): Cityscape Global, Riyadh Exhibition and Convention Centre (Malham), Riyadh.

MARCH

21-25 March (Sunday-Thursday): The World Water Forum, Riyadh.

22–24 March (Monday-Wednesday): Capital Markets Forum, Four Seasons Hotel, Riyadh

APRIL

26-29 April (Monday-Thursday): World Energy Congress, Riyadh.

JUNE

1-3 June (Tuesday-Thursday): The Saudi Entertainment and Amusement Expo, Riyadh Front Exhibition and Conference Center.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

The Ocean Race finishes in Amaala on the Red Sea;
Riyadh-Kudmi transmission line to be completed;
Aero Middle East and Sand & Fun takes place in Thumamah Airport, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2Q 2027:

The Hail Region Water Networks Project is expected to be completed.
The Esports Nations Cup, Riyadh;

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