Making hay

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: Riyadh, Abu Dhabi could be mending fences

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. We’re closing out the month with signals that Saudi Arabia’s fracture with Abu Dhabi is also on its way to being closed out. UAE Vice President and Deputy Prime Minister Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman met in Riyadh yesterday as the Houthis continued to take ground in southern Yemen — the same area Saudi Arabia and the UAE stopped seeing eye-to-eye on nine months ago.

Tellingly, the statements following the visit took note of the “brotherly bilateral relations” between the two countries. The other detail to pay attention to: Sheikh Mansour visited at the invitation of Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman rather than the Foreign Ministry, which is indicative of which file is being repaired first.


We’re delighted to welcome Todd Wilcox as a guest speaker at the 2026 EnterpriseAM Egypt Forum.

Todd Wilcox is the deputy chairman and CEO of HSBC Bank Egypt, bringing more than 30 years of international banking experience. He joined Egypt from HSBC China, where he served as Senior Executive Vice President, Deputy CEO, and Executive Director of the Board.

Todd has held a series of senior leadership roles across HSBC, including CEO of Brunei for the Hong Kong and Shanghai Banking Corporation, CRO for Asia-Pacific overseeing 11 markets, and COO for Risk across all Asian markets. He also served as head of retail banking and marketing at HSBC Bermuda, and began his career with HSBC in Canada. Prior to HSBC, Todd worked at Royal Bank of Canada across a range of business and functional roles.

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Mending fences, at last?

Riyadh and Abu Dhabi may be looking to put their differences aside to face the regional tensions. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman met in Riyadh yesterday with UAE Vice President and Deputy Prime Minister Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan in what was the first public visit to Saudi Arabia by a senior Emirati official since January. The two discussed bilateral relations and regional developments, SPA reports.

Defense was a key part of talks between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi: Al Nahyan met separately with Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman and discussed areas of “mutual interest” and boosting cooperation between the two countries, according to a Defense Ministry statement.

The elephant in the room: The talks follow Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s sit-down with Emirati President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan in the UAE on Sunday, where discussions reportedly centered on Iran. Against that backdrop, the renewed Saudi-Emirati engagement could point to closer coordination as regional tensions mount.

The renewed Houthi offensive appears to have accelerated efforts to repair ties, as Riyadh seeks allied support for air defense and to manage the maritime threat. Saudi commentator Ali Shihabi said Prince Khalid’s invitation was “a big gesture” showing greater coordination on Yemen, while noting that the UAE was unlikely to return to the war. Riyadh instead wants Abu Dhabi to manage southern factions and prevent them from weakening the anti-Houthi front.

REMEMBER- The two countries experienced their biggest rift in many years, with disputes over Yemen escalating since December 2025, followed by the UAE’s withdrawal from Opec and reported delays and additional scrutiny on some bank transfers between the two countries. These disagreements made it difficult to arrange a unified GCC response to the regional conflict.

Saudi resumes Yanbu loadings

Saudi Arabia has resumed crude loadings from its Red Sea port of Yanbu, after restarting operations on its East-West pipeline, after being shut earlier this month following drone attacks, Reuters reports, citing trade sources. The Kingdom began loading nearly 10 mn bbl of crude at Yanbu and nearby Al Muajjiz, satellite imagery captured on 27 September showed.

BACKGROUND- Kpler expects a return to the pre-attack flow rate of around 5.5 mn bbl / d to take another month. Yanbu crude inventories rose by around 1 mn bbl on 22 September, the first increase since the attack.

Al Khafji’s lane

The Eastern Province’s hotel supply is stacking up at the top end, and that’s where Al Khafji has to find its lane. The Dammam metro area (Dammam, Dhahran, and Al Khobar) already holds 13.9k hotel keys, with another 8.1k under planning or construction across the wider province — and roughly 63% of that pipeline is luxury or upper-upscale, Knight Frank’s Oussama El Kadiri, who leads the firm’s hospitality, tourism, and leisure advisory, tells us. That concentration at the top leaves room in other segments, he says.

Al Khafji’s planned 1.4k keys would be a meaningful addition to regional supply, El Kadiri says, and the concentration at the top end creates an opening for a more diversified offering that combines leisure, family, and midscale / upscale products. He says the keys should be phased progressively against demonstrated demand, and assess demand for the project’s 16k housing units separately — factoring in permanent residents, workforce needs, and second homes. The keys and housing sit behind PIF’s new Gulf Coast Development Company, which is developing Al Khafji.

PIF trims its women’s golf game

The women’s side of golf hasn’t escaped the PIF axe. The fund is shrinking its women's PIF Global Series into a single tournament next year — the USD 4 mn “Championship” on the Ladies European Tour — down from the five events, with a USD 15 mn pool, it ran in 2026, Reuters reports. Golf Saudi, meanwhile, framed the shake-up as a move that “strengthens” the women's game in the Kingdom and pledged a multi-year tie-up with the tour's Order of Merit.

Part of a wider golf pullback: This trim follows the PIF’s decision to stop bankrolling LIV Golf once the 2026 season ends. LIV has since gone hunting for outside backers to fund its operations for next year, with the league targeting USD 250–350 mn for its next phase.

What's next: The Championship is set for 22-25 July 2027, with the host venue still undecided, and will feature on both the Ladies European Tour and LPGA calendars.

Stick to the plan

Key Opec+ nations are expected to maintain current oil output limits for October during their upcoming weekend meeting, Bloomberg reports, citing two delegates to the bloc. The update matches previous expectations projected for the bloc’s October output decision. The group is expected to delay resuming the additional tranche of output suspended in 2022 until at least year-end.

ICYMI: OPEC+ approved a sixth consecutive quota hike for September of 188k bbl / d, continuing identical quota hikes for August, July, and June.

Mobi Industry goes for Tadawul

Mobi Industrial has applied to graduate to the main market. The fertilizer manufacturer submitted a request to move from the Nomu parallel market to Tadawul’s main market three years after its board first approved the transition in 2023, it said in a Tadwul disclosure.

Data point

SAR 59.5 bn — that’s the Kingdom’s services exports in 2Q 2026, down 16.5% q-o-q, according to Gastat’s latest report (pdf). Services imports, meanwhile, rose 8.4% q-o-q to SAR 120.8 bn.

The drivers: Travel services led exports at 56.8% of the total, or SAR 33.8 bn, with personal travel making up 93.9% of that. Transportation ranked second at 17.6% (SAR 10.5 bn), of which air transport was 39%. On the import side, transportation took the largest share at 28.2% (SAR 34.1 bn), followed by travel at 20.7% (SAR 25 bn).

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The Egyptian government locked in enough LNG and crude to carry the country through peak demand this summer, and the real question now is who pays for it and for the rebuild ahead.

PowerTrip, our new four-part signature series, follows the money behind an energy sector that went from exporting gas to importing it in just five years.

Over the four issues this autumn, we’ll look at how the lights stayed on and what that cost, who will own the next generation of power, how fast renewables can really scale, and whether Egypt’s claim to be the region’s energy hub still holds.

Issue I looks at how Egypt avoided rationing this summer, how the country went from gas exporter to importer in a decade, and what keeping the lights on actually cost us.

Tap here to subscribe to the Egypt edition, coming straight to your inbox today.

The big story abroad

Some of the world’s most powerful tech CEOs met US President Donald Trump at the White House, where the executives signed the White House Accord on Super Intelligence, referring to AI, to adopt safety regulations. The agreement includes internal controls to monitor AI models during training and deployment in critical areas like cybersecurity, biosecurity and chemical threats, along with audits by external parties to conduct assessments. Among the signees are the chiefs of Google, Meta, Nvidia, OpenAI, XAI, and Anthropic.

AI safety concerns take their toll: Open AI CEO Sam Altman said that the startup will not go ahead with its public listing until it can confidently guarantee its safety practices. This follows a lawsuit filed against OpenAI by a public interest law group over an incident in which the startup's AI agents allegedly went rogue and “knowingly” accessed tech company Hugging Face despite lacking permission.

Scaling back. US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is set to announce a 20% reduction in general and admiral positions during an address to service members today. The cuts will double the 10% reduction ordered last year and must be completed by the start of next year, officials said.

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2

DEBT WATCH

Saudi’s oversubscribed bond signals disciplined treasury management amid regional tension

Six months into the war, a five-times-covered book showed that Saudi Arabia is still borrowing on its own terms. The USD 3.25 bn it sold in early September drew more than USD 16.5 bn in orders and let Riyadh tighten pricing during the sale, months after the debt office said its borrowing for the year was largely done. “Sometimes a state enters the market because it sees strong demand and appropriate pricing. It can then secure funding and diversify investors in advance rather than wait until it is forced to borrow,” Argaam Investments’ Business Solutions Manager Ahmed Ramzy tells EnterpriseAM.

REFRESHER- The National Debt Management Center (NDMC) said in May that it had largely finished its borrowing for the year, with 90% of financing needs secured before the war. While the NDMC named private channels and local markets as the “primary” sources for anything further, it reserved the right to tap international public markets “when favorable tailwinds arise.”

Buffers intact

The issuance finances the deficit, refinances maturities, and preserves liquidity without forcing a sharp cut to investment spending, Ramzy says, with Riyadh weighing the cost of debt against the cost of adjusting spending. “This reflects disciplined, forward-looking treasury management rather than a change of plan,” Economist Ahmad Chreim tells us. The deficit narrowed to SAR 34.3 bn in 2Q 2026 from SAR 125.7 bn in 1Q, and the SAR 160 bn 1H shortfall was financed entirely through borrowing, leaving government reserves untouched. That 1H figure was close to the SAR 165 bn deficit the Kingdom budgeted for the full year, which is the number to watch if oil revenues stay soft into 4Q.

Regional tensions have pushed GCC countries to secure liquidity early and buy themselves spending flexibility. “The most important message from the issuance is not that Saudi Arabia borrowed because of geopolitical tensions. It is that it was able to access international markets on good terms despite them,” Ramzy says. Investors are separating short-term geopolitical risk from sovereign credit — they “see the state as having a manageable level of debt, large sovereign assets, strong access to capital markets, and an economy whose non-oil base is expanding year after year, he said.”

The 2027 pipeline

Chreim sees the sukuk setting up continued debt capital market expansion through 2027. The Kingdom spreads borrowing across local and international markets, loans, and project financing, choosing between them on cost, Ramzy says. An issuance that clears at these levels makes the international channel more attractive for the next one.

The risk runs the other way if the war drags: A prolonged conflict would make geopolitical risk a direct driver of financing needs, and a sustained fall in oil revenues would widen the gap. “The more volatile oil revenues become, the more important it is for government debt and liquidity management to absorb those fluctuations without them being transferred directly to domestic spending and investment,” Ramzy says.

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ECONOMY

Regional shipping disruptions cut trade surplus 25% in July

Regional shipping disruptions weigh on trade flows: Saudi Arabia’s merchandise trade surplus narrowed 25% y-o-y in July, with exports down 17.2% and imports down 15.4%, according to Gastat figures (pdf). “The decline reflects a combination of weaker external demand and disruption to regional trade and shipping. Higher transport and ins. costs, as well as supply-chain disruption, have also affected exporters,” Oxford Economics lead economist Akanksha Samdani tells EnterpriseAM.

Shipping through both the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea has been disrupted, and alternative routes offer only a partial offset, Samdani says. “If uncertainty persists, higher shipping and input costs and weaker external demand could continue to weigh on trade,” she adds.

July is where the lag shows up: Yanbu still handled 78% of seaborne crude exports that month, but Houthi threats against vessels calling at Saudi ports were making the Kingdom's main alternative to Hormuz harder to use.

The breakdown: Oil exports fell 12.8%, and non-oil exports, including re-exports, fell 26.2%. Re-exports dropped 40%, driven by a 67.7% collapse in machinery, equipment, electrical appliances, and parts. Plastics, rubber, and related products held the largest share of non-oil exports at 19.8% despite falling 17.8%, followed by chemicals and related industries at 18.6%, down 32.1%.

China remained the largest merchandise trading partner, accounting for 13.4% of exports and 22.7% of imports in July. “China is an important trading partner, particularly on the import side,” Samadani says, leaving Saudi trade exposed to shifts in Chinese demand. Diversifying partners could reduce this exposure and strengthen resilience.

“The near term outlook is likely to remain challenging,” with export orders still weak, Samdani says, but maintains that it is too early to conclude from one month of data that this reflects a slowdown in Vision 2030 investment, as trade disruptions and the timing of deliveries can also affect imports.” A recovery would depend on regional shipping normalizing and external demand picking up.

4

MOVES

Saib promotes its deputy to CEO, and Edarat names a new chair.

Saudi Investment Bank (Saib) has promoted from within for its next CEO. Salman Al-Fughom (LinkedIn) until now deputy chief executive, becomes CEO of the Saudi Investment Bank on tomorrow, with the Saudi Central Bank's non-objection in hand, according to a Tadawul filing. He takes over from Faisal Al-Omran (LinkedIn), who is leaving at his own request after a two-decade run at the bank. Al-Fughom’s own career spans more than 20 years in Saudi banking, including an earlier spell at the central bank.

ALSO- Edarat Communication and Information Technology has named a new board chair. The IT firm appointed Salam Zaki Al Khunaizi (LinkedIn) as chairman and Musaed Fahad Al Sudairi as vice chairman at the first meeting of its new three-year board, according to another Tadawul disclosure.

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ALSO ON OUR RADAR

Sabic is almost out of Europe

Brussels has cleared the sale of Sabic’s European petrochemicals arm. The European Commission approved Germany’s Aequita taking sole control of Sabic Europe, finding no competition concerns under its simplified review, clearing the way for the sale to close.

It is the second leg of Sabic’s European exit: the company completed the sale of its engineering thermoplastics (ETP) business to Germany's Mutares in August, and the two divestments are worth a combined SAR 3.6 bn (USD 950 mn).

Why it matters: Sabic is shedding loss-makers to lift returns and focus on higher-margin chemicals, in step with parent Aramco’s cost-cutting. The overhaul, running since 2022, has already exited Functional Forms, Hadeed, and Alba; the petrochemicals sale is due to close in 4Q 2026, with the National Industrial Gases Company, possibly via IPO, next on the list.

Camel trade gets its fine print

The Environment, Water and Agriculture Ministry has approved Camel Trade Regulations for anyone buying, selling, leasing, or bartering a camel in the Kingdom. Transactions now need proper contracts, full disclosure, and documented ownership transfers, logged digitally no less.

Passing off a poorly camel is off the table: Transporting, selling, or displaying a sick one draws a fine under the Agriculture Law, and markets and auctions have to meet animal-welfare standards, with a formal channel for reporting mistreatment.

More Masar land changes hands

Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction has sold two more plots in its Masar Destination project in Makkah. Umm Al Qura and an SPV of its Al-Inma Makkah Development Fund II signed agreements to sell two boulevard-facing plots in Zone 2, covering 4.9k sqm in total to Abdulmohsin Al Rossais & Sons Group for SAR 310.4 mn, according to a Tadawul filing. The buyer plans to build two residential towers on the land.

REMEMBER- This follows Umm Al Qura’s SAR 603.8 mn sale of four Zone 3 plots to Al-Diyar Al-Arabia last week, as it steadily parcels out Masar land to developers.

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PLANET FINANCE

Gulf stock exchanges are growing in importance, but they’re still a long way from becoming capital market hubs -Fitch

Gulf exchanges are becoming a real alternative to bank lending, but they are still too concentrated and too thin to work as full capital market hubs, Fitch Ratings said in a note shared with EnterpriseAM. GCC stock markets had a combined market cap of c. USD 4 tn this month, while debt capital markets reached USD 1.2 tn outstanding at the end of 1H 2026, 42% of it in sukuk.

The concentration problem is sharpest in the region’s two biggest markets. Five companies account for c. 60% of the ADX’s market cap, while on the Saudi exchange (which holds 63% of total GCC market cap), Aramco alone accounts for c. 65% of market cap. The ADX has 18% of GCC market cap and the DFM 7%.

Most Gulf debt still lists abroad. The ADX and the DFM list mostly equities, and most GCC hard-currency sukuk and bonds are listed offshore. The London Stock Exchange lists more than half of global USD sukuk, and 95% of those come from the Middle East. The regional exception is Nasdaq Dubai, which lists more than 28% of global outstanding sukuk and over USD 140 bn in debt. Fitch puts the slow growth of domestic debt markets down to a corporate funding culture that leans on bank financing.

The one bright spot in local debt is Saudi Arabia. The Saudi Exchange has a more developed local-currency debt market than its GCC peers, Fitch says, built on SAR sovereign sukuk that the government is issuing to create a domestic yield curve. That market is about to widen: SAR government sukuk will join JPMorgan’s GBI-EM index from 2027, which will increase inflows into SAR paper issued in Riyadh. Foreign investors already took 15% of the kingdom’s primary sovereign debt issuance in 1H 2026, up from 12% in 2025. Elsewhere in the Gulf, local-currency debt markets are still nascent, and Nasdaq Dubai’s weight comes from hard-currency sukuk.

Why it matters: Fitch’s diagnosis comes after a rough year for UAE equity issuance. Dubai Holding, EGA, and Binghatti have all paused or shelved listings, as we reported earlier this year; Al Habtoor dropped its DFM plans entirely; and Airtel Money is taking its IPO to London instead of the UAE, citing regional unrest. In Saudi Arabia, the region closed 1Q 2026 with just four IPOs raising a combined USD 296.6 mn — the weakest first quarter since 2018, but the slowdown started before the war. Analysts told us that stretched valuations and weak post-IPO performance had already cooled the market before the first strikes.

What’s next: Bankers expect a recovery across the region later this year and into 2027, as we’ve reported. In the UAE, analysts see follow-on offerings leading any reopening, not fresh IPOs. In Saudi, the CMA’s consultation on bank-guaranteed IPOs is the near-term test of whether regulators can bring back buyers burned by the last crop of listings. Delivery app Ninja is also eyeing a Tadawul listing of up to USD 1 bn by late 2026 or early 2027.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets opened in the green earlier today, gaining for the first time in three sessions, with Japan’s Nikkei rising 1.2% and South Korea’s Kospi advancing 0.7%. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.4%, driven by tech stocks following a rally in US semiconductor shares.

TASI

10,456

-1.2% (YTD: -0.3%)

MSCI Tadawul 30

1,409

-1.2% (YTD: +1.6%)

NomuC

21,287

-0.8% (YTD: -8.6%)

USD : SAR (SAMA)

USD 3.75 Sell

USD 3.75 Buy

Interest rates

4.25% repo

3.75% reverse repo

EGX30

52,297

-0.3% (YTD: +25.0%)

ADX

10,132

-0.3% (YTD: +1.4%)

DFM

5,988

-0.2% (YTD: -1.0%)

S&P 500

7,671

-0.2% (YTD: +12.1%)

FTSE 100

10,637

-0.5% (YTD: +7.1%)

Euro Stoxx 50

6,320

+0.3% (YTD: +9.0%)

Brent crude

USD 102.59

-2.6%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 3.02

+0.4%

Gold

USD 4,211

+0.7%

BTC

USD 83,747

+0.3% (YTD: -4.5%)

Sukuk/bond market index

890.85

-0.1% (YTD: -3.1%)

S&P MENA bond & sukuk

146.84

-0.5% (YTD: -3.3%)

VIX (Fear gauge)

16.04

-0.2% (YTD: +8.0%)

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI fell 1.2% yesterday on turnover of SAR 3.6 bn. The index is down 0.3% YTD.

In the green: Knowledge Economic City (+10.0%), Saudi Enaya Cooperative Insurance (+4.6%), and Arabian Drilling (+4.6%).

In the red: Abdullah Saad Mohammed Abo Moati for Bookstores (-8.1%), East Pipes (-8.0%), and Salama Cooperative Insurance (-7.3%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC fell 0.8% yesterday on turnover of SAR 15.7 mn. The index is down 8.6% YTD.

In the green: Lana Medical (+19.1%), Pan Gulf Marketing (+11.7%), and Alhasoob (+9.6%).

In the red: Abdulaziz and Mansour Ibrahim Albabtin (-9.9%), Khaled Dhafer and Brothers for Logistics Services (-9.9%), and Digital Research (-9.7%).


28 September-1 October (Monday-Thursday): The International Conference on Theory and Practice of Electronic Governance (ICEGOV), Prince Sultan University, Riyadh.

OCTOBER

11-15 October (Sunday-Thursday): Riyadh Energy Week, Riyadh Front Exhibition & Conference Center, Riyadh.

21 October - 30 December (Wednesday-Wednesday): Riyadh Season, Riyadh.

25-26 October (Sunday-Monday): The Global Proptech Summit, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

26-28 October (Monday-Wednesday): ACHEMA Middle East, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

26-29 October (Monday-Thursday): The Future Investment Initiative, King Abdulaziz International Conference Center, Riyadh.

28-29 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Procurement and Supply Chain Futures Forum, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

28-29 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Real Estate Supply Chain Forum, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

30 October-1 November (Friday-Sunday): The New Global Sport Conference, Sofitel Hotel & Convention Centre, Riyadh.

NOVEMBER

11-12 November (Wednesday-Thursday): Aluminum Arabia, The Arena, Riyadh.

16-19 November (Monday-Thursday): Cityscape Global, Riyadh Exhibition and Convention Centre (Malham), Riyadh.

29 November-1 December (Sunday-Tuesday): The UN Trade and Development Global Supply Chain Forum, Riyadh.

29 November-1 December (Sunday-Tuesday): The Global Logistics Forum, King Abdulaziz International Convention Centre, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2026:

2027

FEBRUARY

1-3 February (Monday-Wednesday): Energy Regulators Regional Association annual conference, Riyadh.

MARCH

21-25 March (Sunday-Thursday):The World Water Forum, Riyadh.

22–24 March (Monday-Wednesday): Capital Markets Forum, Four Seasons Hotel, Riyadh

APRIL

26-29 April (Monday-Thursday): World Energy Congress, Riyadh.

JUNE

1-3 June (Tuesday-Thursday): The Saudi Entertainment and Amusement Expo, Riyadh Front Exhibition and Conference Center.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

  • The Ocean Race finishes in Amaala on the Red Sea;
  • Riyadh-Kudmi transmission line to be completed;
  • Aero Middle East and Sand & Fun takes place in Thumamah Airport, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2Q 2027:

  • The Hail Region Water Networks Project is expected to be completed.
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