Trade surplus falls 10% in June as oil exports slip

The merchandise trade surplus fell 10% y-o-y in June, due to a drop in both oil and merchandise exports, coming off a 328.8% surge in May and marking the first decline since February, according to data (pdf) from the General Authority for Statistics. Total merchandise exports declined 4.5% y-o-y, while imports slid 3%.

Oil couldn’t cushion the fall this time: Oil exports declined 2.3% y-o-y, ending this year’s run of increases and recording the first drop since January. Because non-oil exports fell faster, oil’s share of total exports still edged up to 72% from 70.4% a year earlier.

Non-oil exports, including re-exports, fell 9.7% y-o-y during the month. Re-exports fell 6.7%, dragged by a 41.7% decline in machinery and electrical equipment re-exports, which made up 36.1% of the total. The ratio of non-oil exports to imports slipped to 34.9%, compared to 37.5% in June 2025.

OUR TAKE- The June contraction is the war showing up in the trade data with a lag. May’s surplus was inflated by Brent above USD 100 and a scramble to move crude before the disruptions bit. By June, rerouting exports through Yanbu and other Red Sea ports had raised transit, freight, and war-risk costs. Oil exports fell despite high prices, with logistics — not demand — as the main constraint. The 41.7% drop in machinery re-exports reinforces that disruption, since re-export trade depends on goods moving smoothly.

Plastics, rubber, and their articles were the largest non-oil export category, accounting for 20.7% of total non-oil exports, though the segment fell 12.8% y-o-y. Chemical products and allied industries followed at 19.2%, down 30.4% y-o-y.

On the import side, machinery and electrical equipment held the top position at 25.7% of total imports, down 20.4% y-o-y. Chemical products and allied industries followed at 11.2%, rising 30.5% y-o-y — the one major import line to grow during the month.

Who were our top trading partners? Japan was Saudi Arabia’s top export destination in June 2026, taking 13.2% of the Kingdom’s merchandise exports, followed by South Korea (11.5%) and China (9.4%). China led import sources at 22%, ahead of Switzerland (8.4%) and the US (8.3%).