The main Hormuz workaround for Riyadh is now its own vulnerability, Bloomberg writes

Saudi Arabia’s main workaround to the strait is becoming another vulnerability for the global oil market, Bloomberg’s Paul Burkhardt and Julian Lee write. Aramco is targeting about half capacity within days and full capability in roughly six weeks, but around 2 mn bbl / d of what the line carries feeds domestic refineries, so restored capacity won’t convert one-for-one exports.

Where the line is weak: Nearly all of the 1.2k km length of the pipeline is buried about a meter down, leaving the 11 pumping stations, where it surfaces, vulnerable. Damage at a single pumping station can disrupt the wider system even though valves allow sections to be isolated and damaged stations bypassed. That bypass — which is what Aramco is doing now — comes at some cost to pumping capacity. Vantor satellite imagery showed damage to a station south of Medina, though Riyadh hasn’t confirmed what was hit. Covering the full route with counter-drone systems would be a “very resource-intensive process,” the Institute for the Study of War says.

The pipeline’s capacity, not just its repair timeline, is the main challenge: The Kingdom aims to bring roughly half the East-West pipeline back online within days, but the challenge is to replace the crude that can no longer reach Yanbu. Saudi refineries normally consume around 2 mn bbl / d of pipeline flows, limiting how much recovered capacity can be redirected to export markets. This squeeze could also delay or cancel Saudi cargoes moving through Egypt’s Sidi Kerir terminal, Energy Aspects oil analyst Nicholas Dyer says.