Peer pressure

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: The US clears a potential USD 24.3 bn F-35 sale to Saudi Arabia

Good morning, all. There’s a question hanging over the region this morning, and no one has an answer yet: who can get the Houthis to stand down?

Riyadh has tried the obvious levers, exchanging strikes with the group over the weekend — one of which is the most likely, though still unconfirmed, culprit behind the fire at Riyadh’s airport. However, the more consequential action has shifted from the battlefield to the switchboard, as the efforts widen to include the one address that might have real pull: Tehran. China, Pakistan, and Turkey have all leaned on Iran to rein in the Houthis, with no tangible results.

AND- On steadier ground, the Kingdom’s small businesses are having a good week, with bns in new financing landing just as a fresh SME strategy puts access to capital front and center.

The EnterpriseAM Egypt Forum is less than a month away — and here's some of what’s shaping up on the agenda:

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What AI means for your company, your team, your job, and your family
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F-35s cleared

The US State Department has approved a potential USD 24.3 bn sale of 48 F-35A Lightning II fighters to Saudi Arabia, along with 49 Pratt & Whitney engines, communications equipment, spare parts, and support items, according to a notification sent to Congress on Thursday. Lockheed Martin Aeronautics is the principal contractor.

Why it matters: The request has been public since November 2025, but the formal sign-off puts a specific F-35 package on the table for the first time, after the Pentagon had been less keen to approve the jets. The potential sale would round out an arsenal that runs from relatively cheap interceptors and rockets to some of the world’s most advanced combat aircraft.

This caps a year-long run of US arms clearances, including a potential USD 9 bn sale of 730 Patriot interceptors announced in January, a USD 2 bn sale of 10k APKWS-II guided rockets over the summer, and a further USD 5.75 bn package this month covering JDAM-ER systems and AGT-1500 engines.

And it comes a day after the Houthis said they downed a Saudi F-15 over Marib with a locally produced missile, releasing footage of charred desert and debris resembling wings, an engine, and a tail fin carrying the Saudi flag, the Wall Street Journal reports. Saudi Arabia is yet to confirm the incident, and the fate of the jet’s crew remains unclear.

What’s next: The sale still needs to clear Congress, and it would take several years before the first aircraft reach the Kingdom, Axios reports.

What could hold it up: Israel did not object as forcefully as it did to a Turkish F-35 package, but wanted the sale conditioned on Saudi normalization with Israel, which Trump declined to require. US intelligence analysts have raised the risk of Chinese access to F-35 technology through Saudi partnerships.

Redirecting flows

Saudi Arabia is rerouting its oil exports back through the Gulf to cover the gap left by the strike on the East-West pipeline. Aramco has sold roughly 60 mn barrels from Ras Tanura for ship-to-ship transfer off Sohar, Oman this month and the next, lifting the company’s Gulf exports back to 1-1.5 mn bbl / d, in line with or slightly above August, Reuters reports, citing trade sources.

The workaround has taken some heat out of prices: Crude sat at USD 103.9 a barrel, down 4.5% over three sessions.

The barrels are heading to Asia, at a price. Chinese and South Korean refiners are the main buyers, with some cargoes bound for India and Japan, though supertanker freight rates have hit record levels.

But it comes at a cost to buyers elsewhere: Aramco has told at least two European refining customers they’ll get no crude next month under their long-term contracts, Bloomberg reports, citing sources familiar with the matter. The move applies to all European buyers, who normally receive guaranteed monthly Saudi supply through term contracts, a sign of how far Aramco is reshuffling flows to keep its Gulf and Asian routes supplied while the pipeline is down.

ICYMI- Saudi Arabia aims to bring roughly half the East-West pipeline back online within days, with full repairs estimated at five to six weeks. In the meantime, Aramco has doubled daily loadings from Ras Tanura and Juaymah to two VLCCs, around 4 mn barrels, over the past week.

Safqah Capital eyes IPO

Fintech Safqah Capital aims to list in the next few years, CEO Abdullah Alsubaie told Argaam on the sidelines of Money 20/20. The two-year-old, Riyadh-based company finances real estate developers through sukuk and other debt instruments and has financed almost SAR 5 bn worth of development.

REMEMBER- The company raised USD 15.2 mn in a seed funding round led by Shorooq in February. The funding is being used to expand its financing capacity, upgrade its digital platform, and add AI tools for risk assessment and underwriting.

Data point

USD 142.4 bn — that’s how much Saudi Arabia held in US treasuries in July, down USD 120 mn m-o-m, according to the US Treasury Department. The Kingdom remained the 17th-largest holder of US debt, with USD 110.2 bn in long-term bonds, about 77% of its total holdings, and USD 32.2 bn in short-term securities.

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The big story abroad

Fears over rogue AI were a major focus of news coverage over the weekend. US President Donald Trump will launch AI Force, a new unit focused on AI, after major figures in the sector publicly sounded the alarm over the technology’s dangers. Meanwhile, as debate surged around a so-called AI kill switch to shut down rogue systems, a bipartisan bill requiring the safety mechanism stalled shortly after its introduction in Congress.

An AI player is stepping in: Anthropic has partnered with tech consulting outfit Accenture to conduct third-party evaluations of its frontier models, with each party committing USD 1 bn over the next five years to build testing capacity.

Not quite the 51st state: A new pact between the US and Denmark settles a diplomatic rift over Greenland’s defense, following threats by President Donald Trump to forcibly acquire the territory. The accord will forbid states seen as Washington’s rivals from establishing a military presence on the world’s largest island. Despite Trump saying that the agreement gives the US “permanent control,” Copenhagen and Nuuk said the pact would not compromise Greenland's sovereignty.

Oil flows in post-Maduro Caracas: Interim Venezuelan President Delcy Rodriguez signed an MoU with French energy giant TotalEnergies, marking the latest energy pact between foreign players and Caracas’ interim administration following Washington’s ouster of Nicolas Maduro in January.

Houthis keep up attacks as outside pressure mounts on Iran

The war between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis has reached the Kingdom's largest cities and is pulling in outside powers to clamp it down. Yemen’s Houthis said they hit “sensitive” sites in Riyadh with missiles and drones yesterday, hours after a fire broke out near Riyadh’s main airport and reports of explosions in the Olaya district, Reuters reports. The Kingdom has not commented. Beyond the capital, Saudi civil defense also issued brief emergency alerts across Jeddah, Yanbu, Taif, and other cities over the weekend.

Saudi Arabia has kept up a heavy air campaign, carrying out 26 airstrikes on the group over the weekend, bringing the week’s total to 300, Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree said on X. The jets took off from the Khamis Mushait and Taif bases and hit Taiz, Hodeidah, Marib, Al Jawf, Al Bayda, Amran, Lahj, and Saada governorates in Yemen, he said.

First fatality on home soil: A Yemeni resident of Saudi Arabia was killed by debris from a drone that was intercepted over Taif — the first death reported since fighting intensified last week, against more than 80 wounded before it, Saudi civil defense said. The Kingdom earlier said it downed a drone near Makkah.

The fighting is drawing an international response. The UN Security Council condemned the attacks and called for an immediate halt to the escalation, warning that continued strikes threaten to widen the conflict, disrupt maritime security and international trade, and undermine peace efforts in Yemen, while affirming Saudi Arabia’s right to self-defense under international law.

China is leaning on Iran: Beijing asked Tehran to help rein in the Houthis after Riyadh appealed to China, Reuters reports, citing three Iranian sources familiar with the matter. China wants Iran to use its sway over the group to keep the conflict clear of the energy routes it depends on. Around half of China’s oil imports come from the region, and annual China-GCC trade runs to roughly USD 300 bn. Tehran replied that regional stability depends on ending the war with the US and Israel.

Iran can’t afford to lose Beijing’s support, but it’s a matter of competing priorities. Chinese buyers accounted for more than 80% of Iran’s oil exports in 2025, according to Kpler, and Tehran relies on Beijing to blunt US sanctions and to fund its oil industry. Even so, the sources said, China’s interests are only one factor in Iranian decisions, which are shaped by competing economic and political priorities.

Pakistan has pressed Iran to curb the Houthis too. The South Asian country’s army chief warned that further escalation could push Islamabad to defend Saudi Arabia if Riyadh invokes the mutual-defense clause in the newly formed trilateral Makkah Defense Pact with Turkey, the Financial Times reports, citing people familiar with the talks. Iran maintained that the Houthis act on their own and that the conflict is between Saudi Arabia and Yemen. As for the prospect of military action, Islamabad has been more guarded, saying there have been no discussions of a military response under the pact but that it would act “when the time comes,” according to Reuters.

Turkey, however, has put its hand up. Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said Saturday that Ankara is ready to help meet Saudi Arabia's military needs “especially on some technical issues,” standing in “serious solidarity” and stands in “serious solidarity” with the Kingdom amid Houthi attacks. He also warned that while the crisis had been tolerated up to a point, its economic fallout has “started to exceed the point of being tolerable.”

Still, bringing in Riyadh’s defense partners is more complicated than it looks. Any intervention would need a formal request from the state under attack. In Turkey’s case, ratification by the Turkish parliament (expected in October) is needed before the pact can take effect. Both Islamabad and Ankara also carry longstanding political and trade ties with Iran, while Pakistan is relying on fresh Saudi financial support, including a new USD 3 bn loan and an extension of its existing USD 5 bn deposit, to ease its financial strains.

But the Kingdom is casting a wide net, seeking support across the region. However, "none of this appears to be working," a diplomat told the FT, “everybody is waiting to see what happens over the next two weeks.” Saudi Arabia is seeking help in its own and the Yemeni government’s efforts to loosen the Houthis’ grip on Yemen’s Red Sea coast and the islands the group has seized.

Saudi SMEs see fresh wave of funding agreements

Money is flowing into Saudi SMEs days after the Kingdom approved a new national SME strategy, which prioritizes access to finance in an effort to raise the sector’s economic contribution. Last week’s funding agreements show more capital being directed at that gap.

Monsha’at, STC Bank line up SAR 5 bn: The Small and Medium Enterprises General Authority (Monsha’at) signed a cooperation agreement with STC Bank to provide up to SAR 5 bn in shariah-compliant financing for SMEs across the Kingdom, state news agency SPA reports. And it wasn’t the only SME funding move to land this week.

What the Monsha’at program covers: The program will offer short-, medium-, and long-term financing of up to 10 years, covering working capital and operating needs, business assets, equipment, receivables, contracts, and e-commerce activity. It will also include supply-chain and trade-finance services, including guarantees and letters of credit.

ALSO- Debt crowdfunding platform Lendo has signed three financing partnerships worth up to SAR 890 mn to expand funding for Saudi SMEs and smaller businesses. The largest is a program of up to SAR 750 mn with Vienna-based Quantic Financial Solutions for SME working capital financing. Lendo also signed a SAR 100 mn funding partnership with BSF Capital for SMEs and a SAR 40 mn co-financing agreement with the Social Development Bank targeting small and micro enterprises. The agreements were announced during Money 20/20 Middle East in Riyadh.

Financing alone won’t do it. “Without the right human capabilities in areas such as finance, marketing, data, technology, and innovation, it risks becoming temporary liquidity rather than a tool for expansion,” Human Capabilities and Talent Management Consultant Sahar Al Samdany told us. SME Development Consultant Ali Al Ghadeer pointed to three fixes needed alongside capital: financing matched to a business’s stage, market access to procurement and supply chains, and stronger financial management, talent, and digital systems to scale.

Rize taps SAR 187.5 mn for its rental book, Nadec lifts its Al Raie stake to 100%

Rize bankrolls its rent book

Saudi proptech Rize has secured a SAR 187.5 mn asset-backed Murabaha facility from Jadwa Investment to finance its residential rental-contract portfolio, according to a press release. The facility is dedicated to funding Rize’s underlying rental contracts, giving the company additional capacity to fund monthly rent arrangements without using shareholder capital to finance the contracts. Rize will instead keep its equity focused on product development, technology, talent, partnerships, and expansion across Saudi Arabia.

BACKGROUND- Rize plans to gain market share and continue offering flexible payment options as it transitions into a rental infrastructure company, co-founder and CTO Mohammed Alfraihi told EnterpriseAM in a previous interview. The firm also raised USD 35 mn in a Series A round comprising equity and debt in January 2025.

Nadec takes 100% of Al Raie

National Agricultural Development Company (Nadec) has taken ownership of Al Raie National Livestock after meeting the paperwork and collateral requirements to lift its stake to 100%, Argaam reports, citing a Tadawul filing. The move follows a May agreement to buy out partner Anaam Saudi for Trading’s 49% stake for SAR 23.69 mn.

Middle East dividends hit USD 44.6 bn in 2Q as the region sits out the global buyback boom

Middle East dividends kept climbing in 2Q. Companies in the region distributed USD 44.6 bn, up 5.5% y-o-y on an underlying basis, according to Janus Henderson’s Global Dividends & Buybacks Index (pdf). Saudi Arabia supplied nearly two-thirds at USD 28.4 bn, up 2.4% y-o-y, followed by the UAE at USD 13.6 bn, up 7.3%. Kuwait was the fastest-growing market, with payouts jumping 45% y-o-y during the quarter to USD 1.8 bn.

Buybacks barely got a look-in: Middle Eastern companies repurchased just USD 600 mn of shares during the quarter — a fraction of the region’s dividend bill. The UAE accounted for USD 200 mn, while Saudi Arabia and Qatar each recorded just USD 100 mn.

Aramco explains much of Saudi’s dominance. The oil giant remained the world’s largest dividend payer, accounting for 3.1% of dividends among the 1.5k companies tracked and nearly half of the Middle East’s total. Aramco entered 2026 after distributing USD 85.5 bn in dividends last year, down from more than USD 120 bn in 2024, while launching its first-ever USD 3 bn share repurchase program.

Globally, the balance looks very different: Share repurchases jumped 26.8% y-o-y to an estimated USD 572 bn in 2Q, alongside USD 757.8 bn in dividends, which grew 7.3% on an underlying basis. Every region tracked by the index recorded dividend growth.

Tech is driving the buyback boom: The tech sector overtook financials as the world’s largest source of buybacks, repurchasing USD 121.1 bn of shares, with its dividends jumping 23.5% on an underlying basis to USD 70.5 bn — the fastest growth of any industry. Financials remained the dividend heavyweight, distributing USD 239.7 bn and repurchasing another USD 104 bn.

The catch? AI isn’t getting cheaper: Big tech is spending record sums on data centers and computing capacity — and is still buying back stocks at a rapid pace. Cash buffers are shrinking as a result, and some companies are turning to debt to keep funding both. Janus Henderson’s read: if AI spending keeps climbing, buybacks — not dividends — are more likely to get cut.

Why buybacks go first: Regular dividends are harder to cut once established, while repurchases let companies return surplus capital without committing to permanently higher payouts. Banks have increasingly leaned on that flexibility after rebuilding their dividend bases following the global financial crisis.

Not everyone has room to keep paying more: Consumer discretionary was the only major industry to record falling underlying dividends in 2Q, down 3%. German automakers were a particular weak spot, with softer demand and intensifying competition from Chinese EV makers contributing to per-share dividend cuts at Volkswagen and Mercedes-Benz.

For now, payouts are still heading higher: Janus Henderson expects global dividends to grow another 5-6% in 2026 and buybacks to rise 7-8%. For tech, the question is how long companies can keep ramping up AI investment before buybacks — the more flexible half of shareholder returns — have to give.

TASI	10,778	-0.0% (YTD: +2.7%)
MSCI Tadawul 30	1,446	-0.3% (YTD: +4.3%)
NomuC	21,398	+0.1% (YTD: -8.2%)
USD : SAR (SAMA)	USD 3.75 Sell	USD 3.75 Buy
Interest rates	4.5% repo	4.0% reverse repo
EGX30	55,499	+1.2%(YTD: +32.7%)
ADX	10,272	+1.1% (YTD: +2.8%)
DFM	5,957	-0.5% (YTD: -1.5%)
S&P 500	7,651	+0.2% (YTD:+11.8%)
FTSE 100	10,659	-1.5% (YTD: +7.3%)
Euro Stoxx 50	6,236	-1.4% (YTD: +7.6%)
Brent crude	USD 103.87	-0.9%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 2.91	+0.4%
Gold	USD 4,425	+0.6%
BTC	USD 81,104	-0.1% (YTD: -7.4%)
Sukuk/bond market index	899.13	-0.0% (YTD: -2.2%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	149.04	-0.1% (YTD: -1.9%)
VIX (Fear gauge)	14.81	-4.1% (YTD: -0.9%)

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI remained flat yesterday on turnover of SAR 5.3 bn. The index is up 2.7% YTD.

In the green: Saudi Company For Pharmaceutical Industries (+8.8%), National Medical Care (4.3%), and Jamjoom Pharmaceuticals Factory (+3.9%).

In the red: Musharaka REIT Fund (-6.4%), Takween Advanced Industries (-5.4%), and Armah Sports (-5.0%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC rose 0.1% yesterday on turnover of SAR 14.2 mn. The index is down 8.2% YTD.

In the green: AlBattal Factory (+10.0%), Keir (+9.0%), and Saudi Top (+7.5%).

In the red: Dar Almarkabah for Renting Cars (-9.5%), First Avenue for Real Estate Development (-9.1%), and Arabian Food and Dairy Factories (-9.0%).

CORPORATE ACTIONS-

Saudi Printing and Packaging Co. shareholders will vote on 26 October on an 89.42% capital reduction to write off SAR 583.1 mn in accumulated losses, taking the company’s capital to SAR 68.97 mn from SAR 652.07 mn, Argaam reports. The reduction would be carried out by cancelling 58.31 mn shares, or 0.8942 shares for every share held.

CALENDAR

23 September (Wednesday): Saudi National Day.

28 September-1 October (Monday-Thursday): The International Conference on Theory and Practice of Electronic Governance (ICEGOV), Prince Sultan University, Riyadh.

OCTOBER

25-26 October (Sunday-Monday): The Global Proptech Summit, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

26-28 October (Monday-Wednesday): ACHEMA Middle East, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

26-29 October (Monday-Thursday): The Future Investment Initiative, King Abdulaziz International Conference Center, Riyadh.

28-29 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Procurement and Supply Chain Futures Forum, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

28-29 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Real Estate Supply Chain Forum, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

30 October-1 November (Friday-Sunday): The New Global Sport Conference, Sofitel Hotel & Convention Centre, Riyadh.

NOVEMBER

11-12 November (Wednesday-Thursday): Aluminum Arabia, The Arena, Riyadh.

16-19 November (Monday-Thursday): Cityscape Global, Riyadh Exhibition and Convention Centre (Malham), Riyadh.

29 November-1 December (Sunday-Tuesday): The UN Trade and Development Global Supply Chain Forum, Riyadh.

29 November-1 December (Sunday-Tuesday): The Global Logistics Forum, King Abdulaziz International Convention Centre, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2026:

2H: Sabic’s USD 6.4 bn Fujian project in China to start production;
November: The Esports Nations Cup, Riyadh;
The World Economic Forum’s Global Collaboration and Growth Meeting, Jeddah;

2027

FEBRUARY

1-3 February (Monday-Wednesday): Energy Regulators Regional Association annual conference, Riyadh.

MARCH

21-25 March (Sunday-Thursday):The World Water Forum, Riyadh.

22–24 March (Monday-Wednesday): Capital Markets Forum, Four Seasons Hotel, Riyadh

APRIL

26-29 April (Monday-Thursday): World Energy Congress, Riyadh.

JUNE

1-3 June (Tuesday-Thursday): The Saudi Entertainment and Amusement Expo, Riyadh Front Exhibition and Conference Center.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

The Ocean Race finishes in Amaala on the Red Sea;
Riyadh-Kudmi transmission line to be completed;
Aero Middle East and Sand & Fun takes place in Thumamah Airport, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2Q 2027:

The Hail Region Water Networks Project is expected to be completed.

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Peer pressure

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THIS MORNING: The US clears a potential USD 24.3 bn F-35 sale to Saudi Arabia

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Houthis keep up attacks as outside pressure mounts on Iran

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Saudi SMEs see fresh wave of funding agreements

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Rize taps SAR 187.5 mn for its rental book, Nadec lifts its Al Raie stake to 100%

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Middle East dividends hit USD 44.6 bn in 2Q as the region sits out the global buyback boom

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Peer pressure

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Today at a glance

THIS MORNING: The US clears a potential USD 24.3 bn F-35 sale to Saudi Arabia

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Related

This publication is proudly sponsored by

Houthis keep up attacks as outside pressure mounts on Iran

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Saudi SMEs see fresh wave of funding agreements

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Rize taps SAR 187.5 mn for its rental book, Nadec lifts its Al Raie stake to 100%

Related

Middle East dividends hit USD 44.6 bn in 2Q as the region sits out the global buyback boom

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