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Wednesday, 17 Dec 2025

What We’re Tracking Today
The Big Story Today
Tourism
Debt Watch
Construction
Startup Watch
Also On Our Radar
Planet Finance
Hardhat
Calendar

Will BdC’s IPO make the IMF happy?

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Today at a glance

1

The Big Story Today

EXCLUSIVE- Banque du Caire is readying to IPO — it should make the IMF very happy.
2

ISH

12 months later, Ras Banas is back on the block.
3

DEBT WATCH

AfDB signs-on to help derisk FinMin’s international debt blitz.
4

Construction

Hassan Allam lands USD 250 mn Afreximbank African Trade Center contract.
5

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

The road to export paradise runs through office buildings, not factories.
6

Startup watch

Whistleblower-as-a-service iVoiceUp is a litmus test for regional appetite to tackle workplace misconduct.
7

ALSO ON OUR RADAR

Elsewedy eyes the Gulf, SCZone locks in solar + pharma, and Sinai tourism investors catch a break .
8

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

Koshary makes Unesco’s “Intangible Cultural Heritage” list.
9

PLANET FINANCE

Gulf investors ❤️ stocks heading into 2026, as private equity suffers from “illiquidity premium.”
10

HARDHAT

It doesn’t matter how many solar and wind parks you build if the grid can’t handle the load.

Wednesday, 17 Dec 2025

What We’re Tracking Today
The Big Story Today
Tourism
Debt Watch
Construction
Startup Watch
Also On Our Radar
Planet Finance
Hardhat
Calendar
1

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

HAPPENING TODAY: The road to export paradise runs through office buildings, not factories + Koshary makes Unesco list

Good morning, wonderful people, and thank you for your patience this week while we took a few days off to tool-up for 2026.

We take a limited number of publication holidays every year. It’s a chance to work ahead, think big thoughts, and get organized — particularly when we’re planning something new. Breaks like these don’t just allow us to keep our journalism sharp by engaging in a bit of Maoist self-criticism, but to cook up new things.

Uh, Enterprise? Beyond self-flagellation, what do you guys do on these breaks? Past publication breaks are where we built the things that became:

  • Our annual events series, including our flagship EnterpriseAM Egypt Forum
  • Our audio products, including Morning Drive and Making It
  • Our launches in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and the MENA-India corridor
  • The relaunch of EnterpriseAM Weekend in Egypt
  • …and plenty more

We’ll have lots more for you in the months to come — stay tuned. 🙂

WE’RE BACK IN BUSINESS THIS MORNING with an issue packed with stories that speak to optimism about the shape of things to come in 2026. The rundown:

EXCLUSIVE- Banque du Caire is readying what will be not just the most-anticipated IPO of 2026, but the most important in Egypt since long before covid. We have the inside track on the transaction, which has captured the interest of investors in major financial centers — and that could help us close the latest reviews of our USD 8 bn IMF program.

While the IMF won’t count it as “privatization,” staff there should still welcome the sale of land at Ras Banas, which we can exclusively report is back on the auction block a bit more than a year after officials were said to be shopping it to Saudi Arabia. We expect land parcels there to be sold piecemeal (the sum of the parts is greater than the whole, the logic goes) and to pique the interest of investors from Qatar and UAE.

MEANWHILE- AfDB has stepped in to de-risk a key component of the Finance Ministry’s 2026 debt blitz and Afreximbank’s award of a USD 250 mn contract for its new Cairo HQ and trade proves the institution sees Egypt being the financial center of trade in Africa for decades to come.

^^ We have all of this and more in this morning’s news well, below.

From the Dep’t of Self Congratulations

Kudos to koshary, which made the UnescoList of Intangible Cultural Heritage for 2025. Although we have an unofficial ban on koshary at Enterprise HQ (the pungent odor of its fried onions isn’t exactly conducive to a harmonious work environment), we still love a good plate of koshary outside the office.

What exactly is this list — and why is koshary on it? It’s a list that gets compiled annually by the UN’s cultural agency to promote visibility, awareness, and dialogue about the diversity of living heritage worldwide. Koshary made the 2025 installment not just because it’s our national comfort food, but because it’s a dish that represents equality amongst Egyptians. Its simple ingredients — rice, lentils, macaroni, vermicelli, fried onions, chickpeas, and tomato sauce — make it an easy, affordable, and tasty meal that is available everywhere and can be eaten by anyone.

In addition to koshary, the 2025 list includes things like ayeneh-kari (intricate mirrorwork from Iran), yodeling (from Switzerland), and traditional saree weaving (from Bangladesh).

Morning must read-

The road to export paradise runs through office buildings, not factories. That’s the argument our friend Helmy Ghazi makes in fDi Intelligence, a Financial Times publication. Rolling out the welcome mat for businesses that export services, not manufactured goods, is the surest path to FX stability, he argues. With Egypt now a more cost-effective destination for what insiders call “global competency centers” (“call centers” is passé), global majors are catching on. More than 240 global companies now run digital and shared-services centers here — up from around 90 in 2022. Exports of IT services have already hit USD 6 bn annually, with the Madbouly government targeting USD 9 bn by 2030.

Who’s in? PepsiCo, Schneider Electric, Unilever, ADCB, HSBC, and Mashreq are among the bold-faced names with operations on the ground.

Helmy’s core argument: Services require minimal capital, import almost nothing, and earn hard currency — making them “quasi-equity for the national balance sheet.”

The one downside risk: It’s anyone’s guess how generative AI will hit demand for what used to be called “business process outsourcing.” But if we’re going to make it stick, attracting providers of the higher-value services delivered through global competency centers will be key. And this much is clear: For the foreseeable future, a human’s going to be in the loop, even with “agentic AI” on track to be the buzzword of early 2026.

Highly recommended: Egyptian ingenuity will be reborn through services.

FinMin gives BPO and staffing companies a break

Speaking of services: Staffing and business-process outsourcing (BPO) companies in Egypt are getting a break from the tax man. Instead of charging VAT on the total invoice amount (which includes workers’ salaries), eligible firms will charge and remit VAT only on their specific service fee or commission, according to a decision signed off by Finance Minister Ahmed Kouchouk earlier this week.

IN CONTEXT- The Finance Ministry is on a drive to boost Egypt’s service economy, having recently clarified that service exports were subject to VAT at a “zero rate” provided an Egyptian firm is delivering a service to a non-resident client abroad.

More of this, please

The biotech labor market is getting a shot in the arm as AUC and Minapharm are giving life to Africa’s first biotech academy. The university is set to oversee curriculum design and accreditation and Minapharm will provide technical expertise, mentorship, and access to its R&D facilities, AUC said in a statement (pdf).

Data point

USD 1.3 bn — the total value of investments booked at the Qantara West Industrial Zone despite it only breaking ground on its first project in July 2024. The increasingly important project in the country’s industrialization strategy now has 48 operational or in-the-works projects, expected to employ nearly 70k people.

Enter Jasan Group — the zone’s newest addition and the latest in a long line of Chinese textile and garment companies calling Qantara West home. The company will invest USD 100 mn in a 100% self-financed factory that will — no spoilers here — export 90% of production, the SCZone said in a statement.

** DID YOU KNOW that we cover Saudi Arabia, the UAE and the MENA-India Corridor?

** Were you forwarded this email? Tap or click here to get your own copy delivered every weekday before 7am Cairo time — without charge.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Will Gulf sovereigns continue backing Paramount Skydance’s hostile bid for Warner Bros Discovery? The question hangs in the air this morning amid widespread reports that WBD plans to reject Paramount’s bid in favour of Netflix. The news sent Affinity partners, the key conduit for GCC backing of Paramount’s hostile bid, running to the exit.

Affinity, the private equity outfit led by Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, said overnight it would “no longer pursue the opportunity.” Kushner helped Paramount line up some USD 24 bn in funding for the bid from Saudi’s PIF, the Qatar Investment Authority, and Abu Dhabi’s L’imad Holding.

PLUS- It’s a rough morning for the auto industry: Volkswagen is shutting a plant in Germany, its home market, for the first time in its 88-year history. That’s bad news for any country (including Egypt) hoping that VW would choose it as the site for a new assembly plant — German unions would go bonkers if it invested significant sums abroad after shutting a plant at home. Ford, meanwhile, is taking a USD 19 bn writedown as it walks-back plans to go all-in on EVs.

Keep an eye on oil this morning: Crude futures dipped overnight after the Trump administration said it would impose a “total and complete blockade of all sanctioned oil tankers” going into and and out of Venezuela.

AND- The Trump administration is in damage-control mode after the White House chief of staff gave a stunningly candid interview to Vanity Fair in which she said she was “aghast” at the destruction of USAID, called Elon an “odd duck” and ketamine user, and talked smack about JD Vance’s love of conspiracy theories. Read: Susie Wiles, JD Vance, and the “Junkyard Dogs”: The White House Chief of Staff on Trump’s Second Term (Part 1 of 2)

PSA-

WEATHER- Cairo is in for a windy day, with the Egyptian Meteorological Authority forecasting stiff, intermittent winds sweeping the entire country today. You can expect a high of 20°C in Cairo today and an overnight low of 11°C, according to our favorite weather app. Alexandria can expect much the same, with a high of 21°C and a low of 12°C.

*** It’s Hardhat day — your weekly briefing of all things infrastructure in Egypt: EnterpriseAM’s industry vertical focuses each Wednesday on infrastructure, covering everything from energy, water, transportation, and urban development, as well as social infrastructure such as health and education.

In today’s issue: It doesn’t matter how many solar and wind parks you build if the grid can’t handle the load.

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Christmas is just the beginning. At Somabay, the celebrations unfold day by day, night by night, building all the way into the New Year. From rooftop takeovers and beach parties to late-night performances and full-band shows, the season is curated to let you choose your moment and celebrate it your way — right through the final countdown and beyond.

New Year’s and beyond at Somabay.

Celebrate when it feels right: Pick your night. Book your plans.

Discover the full December & NYE calendar here. Welcome the New Year at Somabay.

2

The Big Story Today

Egypt’s plans to IPO Banque du Caire could be the breakthrough we need to close IMF reviews

EXCLUSIVE- The perception that Egypt hasn’t made enough progress on the privatization program may be slowing the IMF’s ongoing reviews of our USD 8 bn financing program. The Madbouly government and IMF staff have reached an agreement on key items, but the IMF’s approval on the reviews is still pending, according to two senior government officials closely involved with the process who spoke with EnterpriseAM on condition they not be named.

Officials in Cairo hope to get sign-off in a matter of days, we’re told, but expect the IMF to push the government for a firm timeline on the sale of key assets — and to further empower the private sector.

Is BdC just what the doctor ordered?

The potential breakthrough: A landmark sale of Banque du Caire (BdC). Sources with knowledge of the transaction tell us that Banque du Caire intends to go public via an IPO on the Egyptian Exchange in 2Q 2026. The sale could see the state part with up to 30% of the bank and would be unquestionably the most-anticipated IPO in Egypt since well before the global pandemic.

CI Capital has already taken Banque du Caire on the road for what investors we spoke with called an “early look” roadshow to gauge the appetite of potential anchor investors. Anchors are funds that could have the appetite and AUM base to write a meaningful ticket for an IPO that could be worth up to USD 500 mn. The roadshow has already passed through London, New York, and the UAE, and investor appetite is strong, we’re told.

Our take: The building blocks of a strong IPO are in place

CEO Hussein Abaza — a perennial favorite among emerging markets investors and a multi-time Extel honoree — has sharpened the bank’s competitive edge, which includes unique brand equity and a strong balance sheet. The sale of a significant stake in BdC would be Egypt’s first compelling listing in years and the clearest signal yet to the IMF that the state is taking seriously demands that it step back from direct competition with the private sector. Banque du Caire declined to comment when we reached out yesterday.

Why it matters: The IMF and the private sector will rejoice

The IMF and the government agree the macro gauges are all pointing in the right direction. Cabinet also points to Qatar’s massive USD 29.7 bn Alam El Roum project, saying it shows we’re open for investors. Meanwhile, Egypt has made progress on politically difficult fuel subsidy cuts and expanded its asset monetization program to 50 state-owned companies, up from 35. Suez Canal traffic is showing signs of recovery, with mega-ships beginning to return. The easing of geopolitical tensions should help Egypt attract fresh investment from within the region and abroad, officials here expect.

The IMF sees things a bit differently, three diplomatic sources in Cairo tell us. The Fund, they say, views Alam El Roum as asset monetization, not privatization. While the deal helps shore up our balance sheet, it doesn’t fundamentally get the state out of the economy or create space for private competition — arguably the core structural demand of the IMF program.

Cabinet has been beating the drum on big assets. We reported last week that the Gabal El-Zeit wind-power plant could be offered for sale in February and officials are in the final stages of preparing the master plan for the sale of land at Ras Banas, as we note below. The government is also taking bids for the contract to manage Hurghada International Airport — and Luxor International Airport could be next, we’re told. The airports should attract wide interest from players ranging from strategics to classical infrastructure investors — even bn’aire investor Naguib Sawiris has said he’s interested.

But the IMF expects the government to show progress on “meaningful” privatization, one Western diplomat told us, saying the asset-sale program is “one of the most critical conditions for ensuring sustainable growth and mitigating the impact of potential economic shocks going forward.”

What’s next?

  • On the IMF review, we’re waiting to see when Egypt appears on the executive board’s public calendar — we’re not there as of dispatch time this morning.
  • For Banque du Caire, we’d expect more chatter in the market over the course of winter — 2Q means the bank will be in the market in the traditional May-June IPO window.

AND- A high-level committee will begin work in early January to determine the fate of several companies previously at the top of the asset-sale queue.

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3

Tourism

Gov’t is putting the finishing touches on a master plan to sell Ras Banas next year

Ras Banas is on deck to become a new Red Sea tourist destination. Senior government officials are finalizing a master plan for the sale of Ras Banas in 2026 and are now in the “final stages” of drafting the investment blueprint for the strategic Red Sea headland, a government official with knowledge of the process tells EnterpriseAM.

Don’t expect a single “megasale” on the order of Ras El Hekma or Alam Al Roum. We’re told that once the cabinet signs off, the remote southeastern coastal zone will be sliced into specific projects and offered to investors “sequentially” throughout 2026. The bet: The sum of the parts will net more for state coffers than selling it in one go to a deep-pocketed developer.

The details: The plan envisions a mixed-use destination anchored by tourism, hotels, and residential projects. Our source declined to say how much officials hope to net from the transaction.

The state has already fixed a major infrastructure headache: The recent conversion of nearby Berenice Airport to civilian use was the clearest signal yet that the area is being prepped for high-traffic international tourism.

Why it matters: This puts hard details behind interest we’ve tracked since last fall, when reports first surfaced of potential Saudi investment in the area. While a Saudi bid may yet come through, we think it more likely that developers from the UAE and Qatar will be among the first to express interest.

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4

DEBT WATCH

African Development Bank gives Egypt’s next Samurai bond a boost

The African Development Bank (AfDB) is backing our return to the Samurai bond market, where the Finance Ministry hopes to place a JPY-denominated sustainable bond worth the equivalent of USD 500 mn. The bond is part of a broader USD 4 bn slate of international debt issuances the ministry wants to make before the end of its current fiscal year in June 2026. Also in the package are Panda bonds, green bonds, and Eurobonds, we have previously reported.

The details: An environmental and social assessment released by the bankthis week (pdf) confirms it will extend a partial credit guarantee to help the Finance Ministry float the bond, the proceeds from which are earmarked entirely for green and sustainable projects, including renewables, clean transport (like the monorail), and water management.

SOUND SMART- What’s the AfDB actually doing? The AfDB’s partial credit guarantee (or PCG) will cover a portion of the bond’s principal. This “credit wrap” is the secret sauce: It provides critical comfort to Asian investors skittish about emerging markets, which should allow Egypt to secure longer maturities and cheaper pricing than we could on our own.

This is the second leg of the strategy: The transaction mirrors the structure of the RMB 3.5 bn Panda bond Egypt issued October 2023, which was also backed by the AfDB and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.

Watch for the masterplan: The Finance Ministry should now be putting the final touches on its new public debt strategy, which it has said to expect before the end of this month. The roadmap aims to slash public debt to under 75% of GDP within three years (down from c. 85% last year) and cap debt servicing costs at 7% of GDP.

The “credit wrap” is the new normal

Our take: With global rates still steep, naked sovereign issuances are expensive. By lining up AfDB backing, the Finance Ministry is signaling that its strategy isn’t just about borrowing more — it’s about borrowing smarter. Using multilateral guarantees to de-risk Egyptian debt allows the state to access single-digit yields in Japan and China, balancing out the higher costs of traditional Eurobonds.

We’re becoming regulars in Asia

Why it matters: Successfully floating a Samurai bond in 2026 after the Panda issuance three years ago proves that Egypt can systematically access Asian capital markets. It’s a step toward rebalancing our portfolio of debt to reduce reliance on hot money and traditional Western institutional investors, creating a more resilient funding mix.

What’s next?

Mandate letters. With the AfDB assessment now public — a key prerequisite for the guarantee — we expect the Finance Ministry to mandate investment banks (likely including Citi and our friends at HSBC) as early as this month.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

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5

Construction

Hassan Allam lands USD 250 mn Afreximbank African Trade Center contract – will it unlock more funding for Egypt?

Afreximbank’s new African Trade Center is the physical anchor for a big Egypt-bound financing push. The African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) sent a signal of confidence in Egypt, after tapping our friends at Hassan Allam Construction to build its USD 250 mn African Trade Center (AATC) in the New Capital. It will be the bank’s largest global complex to date and will house its new global headquarters, replacing the bank’s current HQ in Heliopolis.

The project site — spanning over 100k sqm — will feature a 110-room hotel and six fully serviced residential villas. It will also be home to an exhibition center and a 750-seater conference center, among other facilities.

Our take

Not (just) a real estate project: Afreximbank’s new headquarters contract, complete with large conference and exhibition facilities, confirms the bank sees Egypt as the de facto financial center for intra-African trade.

Why it matters

Afreximbank plans to earmark USD 2 bn in financing to Egypt this year, according to Afreximbank’s Ayman El Zoghbi’s recently said. The bank has particular interest in propping up investments in energy, telecommunications, construction, and manufacturing, Afreximbank Chairman George Elombi said.

We heard back in 2024 that the bank was mulling plans to more than double its Egypt-bound financing, plugging an additional USD 3.2 bn into the country last year.

What’s next?

The project is scheduled to be completed in early 2029 and should generate some 8k direct and indirect jobs during construction, as well as some 1k jobs during its operational phase.

Background

A ‘W’ for local traders: Afreximbank has had significant appetite for local infrastructure projects that boost national trade capacity. Most recently, Afreximbank approved a USD 150 mn loan for Canal Sugar in September. The loan for the subsidiary of the UAE’s Jamal Al Ghurair Group is being used to finance the purchase of new production lines for the company’s sugar factory in Minya and to increase the company’s beet productivity to 36k tons per day by next year, up from 11k tons today.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

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6

Startup watch

Whistleblower-as-a-service iVoiceUp is a litmus test for regional appetite to tackle workplace misconduct

There’s appetite in the region for dealing effectively with misconduct and unethical practices — and investors seem to see the potential. Cairo-born, AI-powered whistle-blowing and ethics case management platform iVoiceUp closed a seven-figure investment round by Egypt-focused VC A15, with proceeds set to help it establish a physical presence in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, iVoiceUp co-founder Ahmed Genedy told EnterpriseAM.

The platform is already serving “over 1 mn voices across leading blue-chip organizations in the region,” according to a statement (pdf) from the startup. iVoiceUp enables “organizations to detect, manage, and analyze misconduct across fraud, corruption, harassment, discrimination, and other unethical practices” through anonymous reporting, Genedy told us.

A subscription could also pay for itself, with the Association of Certified Fraud Examiners claiming that organizations lose 5% of annual income on average to fraud, Genedy said. But the danger for companies is larger than this — “companies without trusted reporting channels face reputational damage, regulatory exposure, and undetected misconduct driven by fear of retaliation,” Genedy explained.

But why the hype now? “Compliance and governance regulations across the GCC and broader region are evolving rapidly,” Genedy said. And iVoiceUp is in the right place at the right time, he argues, saying the company was “built early to address this gap and today stands as a first-mover, regionally focused platform designed for local regulatory, cultural, and operational realities.”

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7

ALSO ON OUR RADAR

Elsewedy eyes the Gulf, SCZone locks in solar + pharma, and Sinai tourism investors catch a break

Elsewedy’s USD 500 mn GCC push

Elsewedy Electric plans to establish nine facilities in Saudi Arabia and two in Qatar, CEO Ahmed El Sewedy told Asharq Business. The expansion aims to diversify export hubs and strengthen regional competitiveness, investor relations head Noha Agaiby told EnterpriseAM.

The details: The company is earmarking SAR 1.5 bn (USD 400 mn) for the Saudi facilities. They include two plants in Yanbu, one of which will produce specialized cables and another for copper rods (a JV with Alfanar) with a capacity exceeding 130k tons. Riyadh will see plants for cable accessories, fiberglass, EV chargers, and water meters, while a new Dammam facility will produce power transformers.

In Qatar, the company plans to invest QAR 250 mn (USD 67 mn) in plants for copper and aluminum rods and power distribution transformers, with production set to begin in 2027.

SCZone locks-in solar + pharma facilities

#1- Atum Solar broke ground on a USD 220 mn solar manufacturing complex in the SCZone. The facility is set to produce an annual 2 GW each of solar cells and modules, plus 1 GWh of battery storage systems. The JV between Egypt’s AH Group, China’s JA Solar, the UAE’s Global South Utilities, and Bahrain’s Infinity Capital plans to export all solar cell output to global markets, while modules and storage systems will target local and regional markets. The facility is expected to create some 850 jobs.

#2- Gennecs Egypt Pharmaceuticals laid the cornerstone yesterday for what will be a USD 220 mn vaccine production facility. The GennVax complex in the SCzone will kick off production at some 70-80 mn doses per year and has a nameplate capacity of 270 mn at full capacity. The company hopes to export up to 40% of its output. Our friend Hassan El Khatib, Egypt’s minister of investment, did the honors at a ceremony yesterday.

The project is moving towards implementation more than two years after it was granted agolden license, according to a cabinet statement. The facility will be the largest of its kind in Egypt, producing 29 types of vaccines and sera.

Tamweel, Souhoola wrap securitizations

#1- Tamweel Mortgage has closed a EGP 2.1 bn securitization issuance. The sale is the second under its EGP 5 bn, three-year multi-issuance program, according to a statement (pdf). The issuance, backed by a portfolio of mortgage receivables, included five tranches rated between AA+ (sf) and A- (sf) by Meris.

Advisors: Al Ahly Pharos and Beltone served as financial advisors and lead arrangers on the transaction, with Dreny & Partners providing counsel. Al Ahly Pharos, NBE, Banque du Caire, Banque Misr, and SCBank served as underwriters. ADCB acted as custodian, SCBank as bookrunner, and Baker Tilly as auditor.

#2- Meanwhile, Souhoola has concluded a EGP 585 mn issuance. The three-tranche offering is the second under its three-year, EGP 3.5 bnsecuritization program, according to a statement (pdf). The issuance tenors range from 12 to 36 months, rated Prime 1, A+, and A- by Meris.

Advisors:CI Capital and CIB served as financial advisors, arrangers, global managers, issuance managers and bookrunners.

Tourism investors in South Sinai catch a break

The Tourism Development Authority (TDA) is offering relief measures to investors in the Taba-Nuweiba area to cushion the blow from the war in Gaza. Investors will be able to defer debt repayments for an additional year and suspend repayments for 18 months without interest penalties. Land payment exemptions can be extended to three years, Asharq Business quotes TDA head Mostafa Mounir as having said.

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8

PLANET FINANCE

Gulf investors ❤️ stocks heading into 2026, as private equity suffers from “illiquidity premium”

Investors across the Gulf view public equities as the most attractive asset class on a risk-adjusted basis heading into 2026, favoring the liquidity and historical reliability of public markets over other asset classes, according to Sico’s Investor Return Expectations in the GCC 2026 survey. This is followed by fixed income and real estate.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background and outside sources.)

Investors are generally targeting annual returns of 9-12% for the asset class — a target that Sico Group’s head of research Nishit Lakhoti broadly aligns with the asset class’ long-term 8-9% total return CAGR in the GCC.

On the other hand, most investors are demanding the highest returns from private equity compared to other asset classes, given persistent illiquidity and exit risk in the sector. Most investors now require a minimum unleveraged return of around 13% to commit capital.

Blame it on the “illiquidity premium.” That’s how Sico Capital CEO Wissam Haddad refers to the spread between the 9-12% target for equities and the 13%+ requirement for PE, which he says comes as softer IPO markets have made exits harder, forcing investors to demand higher compensation for the risk of having capital trapped in longer holding periods or continuation funds.

Cash might not be king? Despite expectations of 5-6% returns on liquidity holdings, Sico Group Deputy Group CEO Ali Marshad said investors may be underestimating the impact of rate cuts, noting that yields paying 5% today could drift closer to 4.25% over the coming year as policy eases, potentially forcing capital back into risk assets to maintain returns.

The same goes for government bond yields: In the fixed income space, investors in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar are looking for 5% annual returns on 10-year USD government bonds, while those in Oman, Kuwait, and Bahrain are eyeing closer to a 6% yield. Easing inflation and rate cuts will likely pull most GCC sovereign yields below 5%, with Bahrain remaining the key outlier, Marshad says.

The safe wagers for investors in the Gulf? The UAE and Saudi Arabia, as usual — though confidence in Saudi Arabia eased slightly y-o-y amid concerns over liquidity and market performance.

And the new kids on the block: Oman, Kuwait, and Bahrain have all seen optimism improve, with Kuwait in particular seeing investor confidence surge to 41% this year, up from 28%, according to the survey. This was led by reform momentum and an uptick in government spending in both Oman and Kuwait.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Most Asian markets are in the green this morning, with Japan’s Nikkei making marginal gains on the back of positive export figures that beat analyst expectations. South Korea’s Kospi gained 0.7%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is up 0.1%. China’s CSI 300 was the outlier, remaining slightly lower. Over on Wall Street, futures slipped overnight after a losing session for all three indices yesterday, on the back of higher unemployment figures out yesterday.

EGX30

42,002

-1.3% (YTD: +43.2%)

Down

USD (CBE)

Buy 47.35

Sell 47.49

USD (CIB)

Buy 47.36

Sell 47.49

Interest rates (CBE)

21.00% deposit

22.00% lending

Tadawul

10,452

-1.3% (YTD: -13.2%)

ADX

9,979

-0.1% (YTD: +5.9%)

DFM

6,110

+0.3% (YTD: +18.4%)

S&P 500

6,800

-0.2%(YTD: +15.6%)

FTSE 100

9,684

-0.7% (YTD: +18.5%)

Euro Stoxx 50

5,717

-0.6% (YTD: +16.8%)

Brent crude

USD 58.92

-2.7%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 3.96

+1.9%

Gold

USD 4,342

+0.2%

BTC

USD 87,484

+1.9% (YTD: -6.5%)

S&P Egypt Sovereign Bond Index

979.28

+0.2% (YTD: +25.9%)

S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk

151.77

+0.1% (YTD: +8.5%)

VIX (Volatility Index)

16.48

-0.1% (YTD: -5.1%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 fell 0.7%% yesterday on turnover of EGP 6.2 bn (17.0% above the 90-day average). Local investors were net buyers. The index is up 41.2% YTD.

In the green: Eastern Company (+1.8%), Oriental Weavers (+1.6%), and Fawry (+1.2%).

In the red: E-finance (-4.0%), Telecom Egypt (-3.2%), and Emaar (-2.8%).

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Our weekly deep-dive into infrastructure in Egypt.

Published every Wednesday in EnterpriseAM.

Read Hardhat
9

HARDHAT

It doesn’t matter how many solar and wind parks you build if the grid can’t handle the load

Egypt is looking to attract USD 60 bn of electricity production investments by 2030, but much of the planned 23 GW primarily renewables capacity risks going to waste if we don’t get serious about grid infrastructure — and soon. And the strain on the grid is only set to increase, with a further 45 GW set to be added over the next ten years, Investment Minister Hassan El Khatib said earlier this month.

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When it comes to renewables, grid infrastructure is about a whole lot more than capacity, because solar and wind are by their nature not predictable or steady sources of electricity generation and are always fluctuating in output. Unlike the type of centralized fossil fuel-run power plants the country is trying to replace, changes in wind speed, the sun going down or up, and even changes in cloud cover can cause rapid swings in electricity production, leading to potential blackouts and grid instability.

Complicating things is the concentration of wind projects along the Red Sea, positioning planned and in-the-works large-scale renewable projects far away from existing higher capacity grid infrastructure feeding Cairo and the Delta. This risks bottlenecks, where multi-bn windfarms are able to produce large amounts of energy needed elsewhere in the system, but the grid is unable to channel the energy due to a lack of high-voltage direct current transmission lines.

Solar concentration up the Nile also increases the need for new and improved grid infrastructure, given Upper Egypt’s historically much lower consumption of electricity and a grid to match.

And again, with renewables planned to account for 42% of the energy mix by 2030 and 60% by 2040, the issue will only become more pressing. In stark contrast, thermal energy accounted for 88.3% of all energy produced in the 12 months ending June 2024, according to the Egyptian Electrical Holding Company’s last available annual report (pdf).

The solution? Modern grid infrastructure built for the job. To handle large amounts of fluctuating energy production from renewable sources, advanced transformers, transmission lines and towers, substations, and battery energy storage systems are needed to ensure stable frequencies and adapt to changing inputs. The often long distances between renewables projects and the homes they power also need modern transmission lines to protect against significant electricity losses during transmission.

The lack of sufficient grid infrastructure has long been a bugbear of investors and industry insiders, but it’s also a global problem. A minimum of 3k GW of renewables projects are “waiting in grid connection queues – equivalent to five times the amount of solar PV and wind capacity added in 2022,” the International Energy Agency said in its Electricity Grids and Secure Energy Transitions report (pdf) from 2023.

The government is signalling that it recognizes the challenge, with El Khatib laying out the need for USD 45 bn in distribution infrastructure investments to integrate new clean capacity.

International backers of our renewables push are also on board, with the European Bank of Reconstruction and Development this week committing EUR 200 mn to help fuel the Egyptian Electricity Transmission Company’s grid infrastructure plans under the Nexus of Water, Food and Energy’s energy pillar.

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CALENDAR

DECEMBER

25 December: (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2H 2025: Potential visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping to Egypt

4Q 2025: The beginning of construction works on China’s State Grid two solar projects.

4Q 2025: GB Auto starts assembling one of China’s Great Wall Motor models in 4Q 2025.

4Q 2025-1Q 2026: Kasrawy Group to launch first Avatr EV models in Egypt.

2025: The InterAcademy Partnership assembly.

2025: Nile Basin States Summit, Cairo, Egypt.

2025: Release of the government’s Startup Charter document.

Before 2025-end: The government will launch two ro-ro shipping lines with Saudi Arabia and Turkey.

2026

JANUARY

1 January (Thursday): European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) to fully come into effect.

7 January (Wednesday): Coptic Christmas.

25 January (Sunday): Revolution Day / Police Day.

FEBRUARY

10-12 February (Tuesday-Thursday): Gitex Global’s AI Everything Middle East & Africa Summit

19 February (Thursday): First day of Ramadan (TBC).

MARCH

15 March (Sunday): IMF to hold its seventh review of Egypt’s USD 8 bn EFF arrangement.

21 March: (Saturday): Eid El Fitr starts (TBC).

30 March – 1 April (Monday-Wednesday): Egypt International Energy Conference and Exhibition 2026 (EGYPES)

APRIL

12 April (Sunday): Coptic Easter.

25 April (Saturday): Sinai Liberation Day.

MAY

1 May (Friday): Labor Day.

27-29 May (Wednesday-Friday): Eid El Adha (TBC).

May: NEBU Egypt’s Gold & Jewelry Exhibition.

JUNE:

30 June (Tuesday): National holiday in observance of June 30 Revolution (TBC).

JULY

23 July (Thursday): National holiday in observance of Revolution Day (TBC).

AUGUST

26 August (Wednesday): National holiday in observance of Prophet Muhammad’s birthday (TBC).

SEPTEMBER

15 September (Tuesday): IMF to hold its eighth review of Egypt’s USD 8 bn EFF arrangement.

27-29 September (Sunday-Tuesday): Egypt will host the fourth edition of the Global Conference on Population, Health and Human Development.

OCTOBER

6 October (Tuesday): Armed Forces Day.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

Early 2026: Passenger operations on the New Administrative Capital–Nasr City monorail scheduled to begin.

Early 2026: The government will launch the second package of tax facilitation measures.

1Q 2026: Trial operations for the Ain Sokhna–Sixth of October section of Egypt’s first high-speed rail line scheduled to begin.

May 2026: End of extension for developers on 15% interest rates for land installment payments

2H 2026: Operations at Deli Glass Co’s new USD 70 mn glassware factory kick off.

2027

20 January-7 February: Egypt to host the African Games.

April 2027: Tenth of Ramadan dry port and logistics hub to begin operations.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2027: Egypt to host EBRD’s annual meetings for 2027.

2027: Egypt-EU Summit 2027

End of 2027: Trial operations at the Dabaa nuclear power plant expected to take place.

September 2028: First unit of the Dabaa nuclear power plant begins operations.

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