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What’s really happening with the Qalaa Holdings debt buyback?

1

What We're Tracking Today

Budget discussions continue at the House

Good morning, folks. We have a brisk issue for you this morning led by news from IFC Regional Vice President for Africa Sérgio Pimenta’s time in Egypt — and we also have the inside scoop on what’s up with Qalaa Holdings debt buyback.

HAPPENING TODAY-

#1- Supreme Council to receive reformed Labor Act: The Supreme Council for Social Dialogue will kick off discussions of the redrafted Labor Act today before passing it along to the House of Representatives for discussion, according to a statement. President Abdel Fattah El Sisi has directed the council to complete discussions as soon as possible, so that the Labor Act can be prepared for issuance, the statement added.

Remember: The government pulled the bill from the House last year to redraft it after backlash from the business community, which said the original version was lopsided in favor of workers. Prior to the redraft, the bill would have introduced new labor rights, including legislating mandatory annual raises, caps on working hours, and longer maternity leave and notice periods, among other things.

#2- It’s day two of budget discussions at the house: The House Budget Committee will hold four meetings today to discuss and vote on the budgets of a number of ministries and state authorities for the next fiscal year. The committee is holding 21 meetings throughout the week to discuss the state budget for the upcoming fiscal year.

PSA-

Watch your speedometer: Public Prosecutor Mohamed Shawky Ayad has issued new directives to prosecution offices across the country to pursue criminal charges against anyone proven to have significantly exceeded the speed limit, according to a statement. The decision follows a series of fatal car accidents and aims to ensure road users’ safety.


WEATHER- It’s another sunny day in Cairo, with a high of 29°C and a low of 18°C, according to our favorite weather app.

It’s a little cooler in Alexandria, with a high of 23°C and a low of 16°C.

** DID YOU KNOW that we now cover Saudi Arabia and the UAE?

** Want to subscribe? Tap or click here to get your own copy delivered every weekday before 7am Cairo time — without charge.

ICYMI- Missed this week’s Inside Industry? In our weekly vertical exploring all things industry and manufacturing, we looked at efforts to ramp up the local production of key production inputs. Check out the story on EnterprisePM Egypt here.


WATCH THIS SPACE-

An entity to manage state-owned companies? The government is studying a World Bank recommendation for the creation of a new entity to which the ownership of all state-owned companies would be gradually transferred, Planning Minister Hala El Said told Al Borsa. The proposal aims to streamline the implementation of state asset sales, El Said said, adding that the entity would be separate from the Sovereign Fund of Egypt — the state has been transferring a number of its assets earmarked for privatization to the SFE’s pre-IPO fund ahead of their sale.

In context: The government is set to launch a USD 1.1 bn program to implement the state ownership policy. The program aims to create an entity to centralize the management of state-owned companies, crack down on financial handouts, and separate ownership from regulation. The World Bank will reportedly extend USD 1 bn in financing for the program.

HAPPENING THIS WEEK-

#1- Green is the new black at Hivos’ Green Growth Summit: Private sector players, financial institutions, investors, donors, and policymakers will gather tomorrow for the Green Growth Summit hosted by global development organization Hivos at Cairo’s Conrad Hotel. The summit will focus on green exports, de-risking green investments, green jobs, green ambassadors, and green impact investing. Registration for the event has already closed.


#2- Tax Authority head to speak at BEBA: Egyptian Tax Authority head Rasha Abdel Aal will be giving the keynote address at the British Egyptian Business Association’s (BEBA) upcoming seminar on investment at the Conrad Hotel in Cairo on Thursday, 16 May.

ATTENTION, EGYPT INVESTORS-

Foreign investors are falling in love with Egypt again… Foreign investors we speak with (debt, equity, and strategic alike) have a growing appetite for Egypt. They’re buying into local debt, eyeing promising shares, and committing bns of USD to both new ventures here and the growth of their existing businesses. They like the Egypt story that’s taking shape after the float of the EGP, and its competitive advantages are clear to many of them: It’s a massive consumer opportunity and a regional export hub of tomorrow.

The Enterprise Optimism Forum 2024 will do exactly what it says on the tin: Spark conversations about a future that we think is much brighter than so many in our community feel right now. Think of it as much-needed shock therapy combined with an early, actionable roadmap for those of us who are “long Egypt.”

We’ll be talking with you about the agenda over the coming couple of weeks. It features speakers from Egypt and abroad who are future-proofing their businesses and angling to capture tomorrow’s opportunities — and who aren’t afraid to answer some tough questions.

*** Interested in attending? Tap or click here to let us know. Seating is limited.

WAR WATCH-

Egypt to join South Africa’s ICJ case against Israel: Egypt will formally join South Africa’s genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ), the Foreign Ministry said yesterday. The lawsuit (pdf), filed by South Africa back in December, accuses Israel of violating its obligations under the Genocide Convention. Egypt’s decision “comes in light of the worsening severity and scope of Israeli attacks against Palestinian civilians in the Gaza Strip,” as well as the “direct targeting of civilians and the destruction of infrastructure in the strip,” the ministry said.

Egypt has also lodged protests with Israel, the US, and European governments, citing Israel’s Rafah offensive as a threat to the Egyptian-Israeli 1979 peace treaty — a fundamental pillar of regional stability — the Associated Press reports, citing an unnamed senior Egyptian official.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

It’s a reasonably quiet morning in the global business press, as is often the case on Mondays.

Some 300k Palestinians are on the move in Gaza after being forced out of Rafah by the Israeli army. “Many say they have nowhere to go,” writes the New York Times in the understatement of the year. Hamas troops, meanwhile, are pinning down the IDF in northern Gaza and other areas that the IDF had claimed to have cleared of the group, the WSJ notes.

CLOSER TO HOME: Kuwait’s foreign minister as well as its ministers of petroleum and finance retained their posts after Prime Minister Sheikh Ahmad Abdullah Al-Sabah formed a new cabinet just a couple of days after the country’s emir dissolved parliament.

ELSEWHERE- Shakeup in Russia. Russian President Vladimir Putin has appointed a civilianeconomist to run the Defense Ministry in a surprise shakeup.

*** It’s Blackboard day: We have our weekly look at the business of education in Egypt, from pre-K through the highest reaches of higher ed.

In today’s issue: We take a look at a new proposal to issue licenses for foreign teachers to work in Egypt amid concerns that unqualified hires from abroad are slipping through the net.

Discover. Connect. Flourish. Join us for the first of many celebrations in honor of the tremendous achievements of Somabay, where you will get a glimpse of luxury living in the Red Sea. In collaboration with Cairo Food Week, we will transport you to a world that is both tasteful and tasty. Create new bonds, while enjoying unforgettable meals crafted by top-notch chefs. Become a part of our booming collective by mingling and getting a taste of our impeccable hospitality and a world-class culinary experience.

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Capital markets

The inside story of what’s really happening with the Qalaa Holdings debt buyback

Ahmed Heikal is a bit taken aback. He and his partners Hisham El-Khazindar and Karim Sadek have put together what he says is a pro-shareholder plan that will see Qalaa Holdings shed USD 430 mn in foreign-curency debt. But some in the market are having a hard time getting their heads around the transaction — and others are questioning its mechanics, which they say are convoluted.

The crux of the story: Qalaa has long struggled to repay debt it took out to finance the construction of the Egyptian Refining Co., its multi-bn USD greenfield refinery in Mostorod, as well as the growth of its portfolio.

Debt payments have eroded Qalaa’s bottom line even as its businesses turned the corner after covid: Higher interest rates at home and abroad, combined with the depreciation of the EGP, saw Qalaa pay out EGP 7.1 bn in interest expenses last year alone, according to its 2023 earnings release (pdf).

So what is Qalaa’s management team proposing to do about it?

  • Qalaa’s anchor shareholders, who together own 23.5% of the firm, have set in motion a series of transactions that will retire a USD 325 mn loan plus about USD 100 mn in accumulated interest that Qalaa had taken on. They’re effectively paying 20 cents on the USD to retire the outstanding portion of the debt plus accumulated interest;
  • Other shareholders as of 27 May will have the chance to buy into the transaction, too, by joining a debt purchase offer. Subscription is optional and is pro-rata to their holdings in Qalaa;
  • The catch: Shareholders who want to buy a piece of the debt will have pay in USD into an account held by Mashreq Bank in Dubai. (Editor's note: Subsequent to the publication of this story, the Financial Regulatory Authority announced that shareholders would be allowed to subscribe by paying in EGP in Egypt);
  • All debt holders will then swap the debt they buy for EGX-listed shares in Qalaa Holding, with Heikal saying he, El-Khazindar, and Sadek are “long Qalaa” — the management team is agreeing to a two-year lockup post-transaction;
  • The mechanism is slightly circuitous, but Heikal said the result is that shareholders will own a company with a much stronger balance sheet that’s better able to both pay dividends and invest in long-term growth.

We spoke with Heikal yesterday to get the inside track on the transaction and why he thinks it’s good for shareholders. Edited excerpts:

ENTERPRISE: Where did this all begin?

AHMED HEIKAL: It started in 2020, when we expected to see very strong inflows from ERC. We expected to make [redacted] loads of money. Instead, the bottom fell out of the oil market thanks to Covid-19, and we made [redacted] loads of losses. Nobody was consuming diesel, nobody was consuming aviation fuel. [Editor’s note: Oil prices turned negative for the first time in history on 20 April 2020.] That started a process that eventually saw us sit down with our syndicate of seven lenders and tell them, “We want to extend the loan out to 10 years from 2022.”

E: How many banks took you up on that?

AH: Four Egyptian banks said, “No, we’d rather take assets instead.” We did a valuation and, ultimately, paid them what they were owed — they took 18% of Taqa Arabia, some land worth EGP 600 mn, and EGP 600 mn in cash. Another Egyptian bank said, “Okay, we buy your story — we’ll amend the covenants and extend the loan if you provide additional securities,” which we did.

E: That process took how much off your balance sheet?

AH: About USD 200 mn between the asset sales and the amend-and-extend agreement with the one bank. That left us with USD 230 mn we owed to two foreign lenders — USD 131 mn in principal and a bit under USD 100 mn in accumulated interest.

They ultimately told us they couldn’t amend or extend. Their charters wouldn’t let them take assets and they weren’t willing to sit with the loan for another ten years, so we negotiated an agreement that would see us pay them a lesser amount to sell us the debt. We’re effectively paying 20 cents on the USD to cover the principal of the loan.

So, Qalaa is now in a position where it needs to come up with USD 28 mn in cash to get USD 230 mn worth of debt off our balance sheet. That’s USD 26.3 mn to acquire the debt and interest and about USD 1.7 mn in associated fees.

E: So what’s the transaction, exactly?

AH: We’re doing a promissory note. We’ve set up Qalaa Holding Restructuring I Ltd. (QHRI) to buy up to 100% of the USD 28 mn worth of debt. Citadel Capital Partners, the vehicle through which Hisham, Karim, and I own our equity in Qalaa, will buy 23.5% of the debt — and we’re opening it up to all other shareholders to participate pro-rata. For example, someone who owns shares equivalent to 0.1% of Qalaa can buy 0.1% of the debt.

Shareholders as of 27 May will then swap their debt for equity in Qalaa. And at the request of the Financial Regulatory Authority, we’re also extending that eligibility to people who sold Qalaa shares on 7-9 May. The swap will take place through a capital increase at EGP 5 per share once that’s approved by the general assembly scheduled for 30 May.

E: What if you don’t hit 100% coverage on the debt sale?

AH: Citadel Capital Partners will cover any portion that’s left on the table.

E: QHRI is a British Virgin Islands company. Why are you using an offshore special-purpose vehicle (SPV) to do the transaction? And what’s with the requirement that it be paid into a Mashreq Bank account in Dubai?

AH: First, we need to be able to give the two banks their money offshore — they don’t want it in Egyptian accounts, they want it fully repatriated. And secondly, can you imagine the KYC [know your client] nightmare associated with dealing with 10k shareholders if you’re a bank? The cleanest, simplest solution was for Citadel Capital Partners to set up an offshore vehicle to get this done — we’re all KYC’ed and it’s a much simpler transaction for us to buy the debt.

Second, banks in Egypt today will be reluctant to take the responsibility of having USD in their accounts and then transferring USD 28 mn abroad.

I know that’s not a very nice feature of the transaction, I do. But it is what it is: When it’s time to press the button and repay the banks, we need to know the money will move. I expect you’ll see a process of consolidation between now and 27 May, where shareholders who have the ability to pay USD offshore for the debt transaction will buy shares in Egypt in EGP from others who don’t have that ability.

E: So you’re not taking Qalaa’s ownership offshore?

AH: No, of course not. We made this very clear in our first disclosure. QHRI will convert the debt into EGP and assign it to each shareholder so they can subscribe to an EGP-denominated capital increase on the Egyptian Exchange. QHRI will be dissolved after this transaction.

E: What does your balance sheet look like after this transaction?

AH: Much, much stronger, I’ll say that. Total debt on the balance sheet will decline by about USD 1.1 bn this year as a combined result of this transaction, of USD 500 mn in ERC cash repayments, and other transactions that were disclosed recently. It could free up some USD 88 mn in interest expenses — money that falls straight to the bottom line. After this restructuring, Qalaa Holdings will be essentially without debt.

And we’re doing the capital increase at EGP 5 when the share price is at EGP 2.60, so this is value accretive to all shareholders. The net asset value of Qalaa Holding post this transaction will be a number of times higher than the current share price. That’s the real story here.

E: What’s next for Qalaa after this transaction?

AH: Nothing much changes, we’ll just be executing from a much stronger position. We’re still building export champions. We’re driving growth through small, incremental investments in subsidiaries. And we’re particularly interested in a handful of medium-sized, export-oriented, and predominantly green investments with high local value-added components — all of these will be executed at the subsidiary level.

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Development finance

A recap of day two of IFC regional VP’s visit to Cairo: Fresh financing, advisory service agreements and privatization chatter

IFC lines up USD 100 mn for MSMEs: The International Finance Corporation (IFC) has agreed to grant Banque du Caire USD 100 mn in financing to be on-lent to micro, small, and medium enterprises, and female entrepreneurs, according to a statement. This came during day two of IFC Regional Vice President for Africa Sérgio Pimenta’s three-day visit to Egypt.

Plus a health advisory agreement: The IFC also signed an advisory services agreement with the Universal Health Ins. Authority to support the rollout of accessible healthcare services in Egypt.

More privatization chatter: The government is keen on pressing forward with its privatization and state assets sale plan, Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly said, according to a separate cabinet statement. The government and the IFC are in constant discussions over the plan, Pimenta said during his meeting with Madbouly and a number of other state officials.

What to watch out for: The government also wants to ramp up cooperation with the IFC on projects in civil aviation, ICT, airport development, and the manufacturing of cables, cell towers, and data centers, the statement read.

Egypt has seen significant support from the IFC over the past year: The IFC has so far invested a total of USD 900 mn in Egypt during the current fiscal year.

The IFC is a key player in Egypt’s state privatization program: The IFC was tasked with giving “technical assistance and advisory support” on the state’s privatization program in an agreement inked last year. The two have been assessing an additional 50 state-owned companies to include in the privatization program to determine which sectors would be more attractive and lucrative.

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Energy

QatarEnergy to acquire 40% stake in two of ExxonMobil’s offshore exploration blocks in Egypt

QatarEnergy to snap up stakes in two offshore exploration blocks: Qatari state-owned oil and gas company QatarEnergy is set to acquire a 40% working interest in ExxonMobil’s Cairo and Masry offshore concessions under a farm-in agreement inked by the two parties, the company said yesterday. ExxonMobil will retain the remaining 60% of the two concessions.

What’s next? The agreement is subject to customary approvals by the Madbouly government, the statement reads.

About the blocks: The Cairo and Masry offshore exploration blocks were awarded to ExxonMobil in January 2023. Located in the outer Nile Delta, the two blocks span approximately 11.4 sq kms.

Exploration to begin this year? It was reported back in February that ExxonMobil would beginexploring for gas in the two concessions this year. Last year, it was reported that Exxon will invest USD 200 mn to explore for oil and gas in the two wells.

QatarEnergy and Exxon are already in business together here: ExxonMobil owns 60% of the Mediterranean’s North Marakia offshore concession, while QatarEnergy holds the remaining 40%.

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FINANCIAL SERVICES

Beltone and IL Cazar ink EGP 400 mn sale and leaseback agreement and factoring facility

Beltone puts its factoring license to good use: Beltone Financial subsidiary Beltone Leasing and Factoring has inked a sale and leaseback agreement and factoring facility worth EGP 400 mn with local real estate developer IL Cazar for Urban Development, according toa statement(pdf).

The details: The agreements includes an EGP 200 mn sale and leaseback agreement and an EGP 200 mn factoring agreement.

SOUND SMART: A sale-leaseback agreement is a transaction in which a company sells an asset, such as real estate, to a buyer (generally a financial institution), and then immediately leases it back from the buyer. This allows the company to free up capital tied to the asset while still retaining use and operational control over it. This type of financial arrangement is often used by businesses to generate cashflow, reduce debt, or finance other business activities while maintaining the use of essential assets.

Where will the money go? IL Cazar will use the funds to finance construction of its Creek Townproject in New Cairo, company chairman and CEO Nader Khozam said.

Remember: Beltone is new to the factoring game and only received a license from the Financial Regulatory Authority (FRA) in September to add factoring to its lines of business.

What they said: “The financing agreement with IL Cazar for Urban Development reflects our solid criteria for client selection and portfolio quality and resilience,” said Beltone Leasing and Factoring CEO Amir Ghannam. “We are proud to support key players in the real estate sector, especially IL Cazar, who have proven in a short time span to be among the top developers in the Egyptian market with a clear vision and well-defined growth plans.”

More Beltone + IL Cazar cooperation to come? “The leasing and factoring agreement is just the beginning of further collaboration with IL Cazar,” Ghannam added.

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EARNINGS WATCH

CIB’s net income nearly doubles in 1Q 2024

CIB’s bottomline doubles in the first quarter: CIB’s net income surged 97% y-o-y to EGP 11.9 bn in 1Q 2024, the EGX-listed lender said in its latest earningsrelease (pdf). Its revenues, meanwhile, jumped 82% y-o-y to EGP 21.8 bn during the period. The strong performance was driven by sharp rises in the lender’s net interest and non-interest income.

In detail: The bank’s net interest income hit EGP 18.8 bn in the first quarter, up 73% y-o-y. Non-interest income almost increased by 3x y-o-y to EGP 3 bn. CIB’s gross loan portfolio grew 18% over the quarter to EGP 314 bn, while deposits rose 17% to end the quarter at EGP 792 bn.

What they said: “Reaping the [advantages] of its flexible balance sheet structure and proactive treasury management, CIB navigated smoothly through such economic developments, delivering another record set of financial results, while maintaining top-notch solvency and liquidity levels,” the bank’s management said.

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LAST NIGHT’S TALK SHOWS

Foreign Ministry spokesperson weighs in on Egypt joining a case against Israel at the ICJ

It was a diplo-heavy night on the airwaves, led by Egypt announcing that it will join South Africa’s case against Israel at the International Court of Justice.

To weigh in on the matter: The decision was prompted by “the escalating Israeli attacks on Gaza and against Palestinian civilians, the military operations in Rafah, and Israel’s continued policy of siege and starvation,” Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Ahmed Abu Zeid told Kelma Akhira’s Lamees El Hadidi (watch,runtime: 13:53). Egypt’s legal teams will begin preparing the required legal memorandums, he said, explaining that the situation could advance any time over the coming period.

** We have more details in the news well, above.

ALSO ON THE AIRWAVES- El Sayeda Zeinab Mosque inaugurated after restoration: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi yesterday reopened El Sayeda Zeinab Mosque following its restoration and development, Al Hayah Al Youm's Lobna Assal reported (watch, runtime: 4:08). Egypt has a “big plan” to develop other mosques including Al Rifai Mosque, El Sisi said.

This publication is proudly sponsored by

8

EGYPT IN THE NEWS

The Indian press is fixated on a Hosni Mubarak look-alike in Bollywood

What do a Bollywood star and a former Egyptian president have in common? Bollywood singer Abhijeet Bhattacharya has captivated the attention of Egyptians and Indians online for his likeness to former president Hosni Mubarak, writes the Timesof India. Bhattacharya shared a post on Instagram comparing pictures of himself with Mubarak, along with the comment: “Wow! I am trending in #Egypt.” The story was also picked up by the Hindustan Times, Business Standard, and Mint.

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Also on our Radar

Banque Misr’s MDI has poured some EGP 2.5 bn into Onebank.

BANKING-

Banque Misr’s Misr Digital Innovation (MDI) has so far invested EGP 2.5 bn in Onebank, which is set to be the country’s first digital bank, MDI’s CEO Sherif Elbehery told Asharq Business. MDI wants to beef up Onebank’s paid-up capital to EGP 5.5 bn by mid-2025, up from the current EGP 4 bn.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Remember: MDI received preliminary approval last week from the Central Bank of Egypt to launch Onebank, which it plans to do in 4Q 2024 after finalizing the second phase of due diligence and acquiring the operating license.

SPEAKING OF DIGITAL BANKS- OPay one step closer to digital bank license? China-backed fintech company OPay plans to apply for a digital bank license before the end of the month, Al Borsa reports, citing sources familiar with the matter. The company announced its intention to apply for the license back in August of last year, shortly after the CBE published new licensing rules for digital banks. The digital bank will offer lending, saving, and card services alongside accepting digital, point of sale (POS), and e-wallet payments.

Remember: Local firms Basata Financial Holding, Ostoul Securities Brokerage, and PaySky have also announced their plans to apply for a digital bank license.

COMPETITION-

ECA files criminal cases against major poultry brokers over alleged price-fixing: The Egyptian Competition Authority (ECA) has initiated criminal proceedings against seven major brokers in the local poultry market, accusing them of collaborating to inflate and fix the price of poultry sold from farms to wholesalers, the authority said in a statement.

DEBT-

Snackmaker Edita Food Industries has secured an EGP 990 mn loan with an eight-year tenor, it said in an EGX disclosure (pdf) without disclosing the lenders. The loan will be used to finance capacity expansion and the acquisition of new production lines.

MANUFACTURING-

Elsewedy Electric eyes raising its capex to EGP 5 bn, as the company looks to complete current investments in its pipeline and increase its production capacity across its factories — including its factories in Saudi Arabia — the company said in an EGXdisclosure(pdf).

INVESTMENT-

United Pharma to spend EGP 150-200 mn on expansion: RX Healthcare’s United Pharma plans to invest some EGP 150-200 mn this year to set up a research center, launch new products, and upgrade existing production lines, Al Borsa reports, citing unnamed sources.

FINTECH-

Contact, Damen to collaborate: Contact Financial subsidiary Contact Pay has inked a strategic partnership with e-payments firm Damen to work together to build a “comprehensive digital payment ecosystem,” the two companies said in a joint statement (pdf). Damen will help Contact reach a wider customer base by expanding its geographical presence through its over 100k points of sale.

10

PLANET FINANCE

Saudi and Egyptian assemblers take note: There’s opportunity in a looming global EV shakeout

Planet Finance feels more than a little China-obsessed this morning in the latest sign that post-covid economic policy is running headlong into the long-simmering “new Cold War” between Beijing and some western capitals.

Car assembly is among the first industries it could up-end as many governments — not all of them western — complain that Chinese manufacturers are dumping EVs on their markets at cut-rate prices. Here’s what you need to know this morning:

#1- Allegations that China unfairly subsidizes EVs continue to get plenty of attention, triggered by the USD 441 mn IPO this past Friday of EV maker Zeekr. The Geely unit saw its shares pop 34% in the biggest US debut for a Chinese company since 2021.

Zeekr went public as the Biden administration gets ready to slap tariffs of up to 100% on Chinese EVs, prompting the FinancialTimes to note that rising protectionism makes “the outlook for Chinese automakers in Europe and the US is highly uncertain.”

That will likely see Chinese car makers push to set up shop abroad, CNBC says that Thailand, which bills itself as the “Detroit of the East,” could benefit. Byd and rival Neta Auto could start producing in Indonesia soon, as we noted last week.

Sound like a familiar playbook? It’s effectively what Japanese automakers did in the 1980s to smooth-over tensions with the US as imports threatened the American car industry.

Hey, Saudi and Egyptian assemblers — are you taking note?

#2- Speaking of huge subsidies: A “USD 81 bn subsidy surge” is fuelling the global battle for chipmaking supremacy between China and the West, Bloomberg writes in a deep dive this morning.

#3- Fast-fashion retailer Shein is looking at a possible London IPO after it was rebuffed by the United States, Reuters reports.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Major Asian benchmarks have started the trading week in the red. It’s anybody’s guess what’s driving sentiment this morning — the Monday blues? Earnings season ennui? — but CNBC suggests it’s because investors are “assessing China’s stronger-than-expected April inflation data.” Whatever the sheep’s entrails suggest…

US and European stock futures are largely unchanged this morning, and CNBC thinks there’s room for US equities in particular to extend last week’s gains. “Earnings estimates may have become too pessimistic leading into 1Q 2024 results, and widespread beat-and-raise throughout reporting season appears to have catalyzed a turnaround in sentiment,” it quotes one analyst as saying.

EGX30

25,156

-3.3% (YTD: +1.1%)

USD (CBE)

Buy 47.35

Sell 47.21

USD (CIB)

Buy 47.23

Sell 47.33

Interest rates CBE

27.25% deposit

28.25% lending

Tadawul

12,218

-0.6% (YTD: +2.1%)

ADX

9,090

-0.3% (YTD: -0.5%)

DFM

4,173

-0.2% (YTD: +2.8%)

S&P 500

5,223

+0.2% (YTD: +9.5%)

FTSE 100

8,434

+0.6% (YTD: +9.1%)

Euro Stoxx 50

5,085

+0.6% (YTD: +12.5%)

Brent crude

USD 82.79

-1.3%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 2.25

-2.1%

Gold

USD 2,375

+1.5%

BTC

USD 61,207

+0.3% (YTD: +44.8%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 fell 3.3% at yesterday’s close on turnover of EGP 2.5 bn (48.9% below the 90-day average). Local investors were net buyers. The index is up 1.1% YTD.

In the green: Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank (+2.4%).

In the red: Qalaa Holding (-15.1%), Ibnsina Pharma (-7.9%), and E-finance (-7.4%).

11

BLACKBOARD

Will the government move towards issuing licenses for foreign teachers to work in Egypt?

Despite increasing operational costs weighing on international schools in Egypt, demand for foreign teachers remains high, with these educators seen by some schools as important for maintaining quality education and serving as a marketing tool. However, the employment of foreign teachers in Egypt has been criticized for its lack of regulation and the Education Ministry is currently evaluating proposals to better regulate the employment of foreign teachers in international schools.

Proposals to make sure foreign teachers are qualified: The proposals aim to verify foreign teachers’ qualifications, professional affiliations, and create a comprehensive registry of those employed. This initiative follows a suggestion from the Egyptian Teachers Syndicate calling for the issuing of licenses for foreign teachers practicing in the country.

A growing market: As of 2022, statistics from the Association of Private School Owners in Egypt indicate there are approximately 57 international schools operating alongside roughly 7k private schools nationwide.

The Teachers Syndicate’s pitch: The Egyptian Teachers Syndicate presented a proposal calling for the implementation of teaching licenses, syndicate head Khalaf Al Zanati told Enterprise. Under this system, neither international schools nor foreign teachers will be able operate without a license obtained through the syndicate. License fees collected would be directed towards improving the profession through salary increases, professional development initiatives, and educational infrastructure upgrades.

Regulation can improve education: Al Zanati stressed that no profession in Egypt is legally practiced without a license and added that incorporating teachers into the formal system would strengthen the sector.

The Education Ministry already keeps track of foreign teachers: Sources within the Education Ministry confirmed to Enterprise that the department overseeing international education monitors the activities of these schools and that updated lists of foreign teachers are received whenever there are personnel changes. However, the sources did not confirm the existence of a comprehensive registry for foreign teachers working in Egyptian schools.

Some think the focus should instead be on private tutoring and language institutes: Sources within the sector who spoke with Enterprise pointed out that the real challenge lies not within international schools — that often require recruits to have a degree in education or recognised education qualification — but from private tutoring centers and language institutes. These entities often employ individuals with residency permits and embassy affiliations, but lack proper teaching qualifications. This part of the sector is also lightly monitored as "we do not have a comprehensive registry of freelance teachers in private tutoring centers, whether Egyptian or foreign," Al Zanati told Enterprise.

This isn’t the first time licenses for teachers have been proposed: The idea of implementing teaching licenses has been considered in previous years, but was met with opposition, Association of Private School Owners in Egypt head Badawi Allam explained to Enterprise. The initial proposal involved conducting mandatory tests for teachers every five years to assess their ability to keep pace with evolving educational trends, encouraging schools and teachers to pursue professional development and prioritize those with relevant training.

Increased regulations or not, we may start to see fewer foreign teachers in Egypt: British International College of Cairo CEO Ahmed Samir anticipates that some schools will start employing less foreign teachers on the back of rising operational costs and the unpredictably of the exchange rate complicating foreign teacher salaries that are often denominated in FX. El Alsson School Executive Director Karim Rogers also told us that fewer foreign teachers are willing to come work in Egypt due to the economic instability and the ongoing geopolitical tensions on our borders.


Your top education story for the week: The Public Investment Fund’s Saudi Egyptian Investment Company will buy into Social Impact Capital, the vehicle through which the founding El Kalla family holds a controlling stake in EGX-listed CIRA Education.


2024

MAY

19-21 May (Sunday-Tuesday): Egypt International Summit for Digital Transformation and Cybersecurity.

20 May (Monday): Malaysian Palm Oil Forum in Cairo, with attendance from Malaysian Plantation and Commodities Minister Johari Abdul Ghani.

23 May (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

25-27 May (Saturday - Monday): Techne Summit, Cairo International Stadium.

29 May (Wednesday): Virtual launch of Chicago Booth Executive Program.

JUNE

5 June (Wednesday): The Optimism Forum, Cairo, Egypt.

15-19 June (Saturday-Wednesday): Eid El Adha (TBC) (national holiday).

29-30 June (Saturday-Sunday): EU-Egypt Investment Conference.

30 June (Sunday): June 30 Revolution Day (national holiday).

JULY

7 July (Sunday): National holiday in observance of Islamic New Year (TBC).

18 July (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

23 July (Tuesday): Revolution Day (national holiday).

AUGUST

4-5 August (Monday-Tuesday): Egypt Expat Forum.

SEPTEMBER

2-5 September (Monday-Thursday): Egypt International Airshow, El Alamein International Airport.

5 September (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

15 September (Sunday): National holiday in observance of Prophet Muhammad’s birthday (TBC).

25-26 September (Wednesday - Thursday): The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank’s (AIIB) 2024 annual meeting, Samarkand, Uzbekistan.

OCTOBER

6 October (Sunday): Armed Forces Day.

17 October (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

21-27 October (Monday-Sunday): The World Bank and IMF annual meetings.

NOVEMBER

21 November (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

DECEMBER

26 December (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

April 2024: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi will visit Turkey.

1Q 2024: Egyptian-Qatari Joint Supreme Committee.

1Q 2024: Opening of the newly developed Pyramids Plateau in Giza.

1Q 2024: The government is set to finalize the sale of the Gabal El Zeit wind farm.

February-May: The Grand Egyptian Museum could officially open to visitors.

March 2024: The USD 2.7 bn MIDOR Refinery is set to begin full operations.

May 2024: Egypt to receive USD 20 bn of Ras El Hekma funds.

May 2024: Arab Finance Ministers’ meeting at Egypt’s administrative capital.

June 2024: Gov’t expects to finalize sale of Beni Suef combined-cycle power plant.

Mid-year: The fifth Japan-Arab Economic Forum.

1H 2024: Gov’t expects to finalize sale of four water desalination plants.

2H 2024: Gov’t to launch the Cairo Ring Road BRT buses.

November 2024: Egypt to host the World Urban Forum (WUF12).

End of 2024: The launch of the high-speed train line linking Ain Sokhna with Al Alamein City.

2025

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2Q 2025: Safaga Terminal 2 to start operations.

2027

20 January-7 February: Egypt to host the African Games

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

End of 2027: Trial operations at the Dabaa nuclear power plant expected to take place.

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